Player 841138 P Tri-City Dust Devils
Age — —HP A+ peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST108
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%23.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
K: +2.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+3KBB: +3.6 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+4BBCONTACT: -3.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-4CONTACTSTAM: +3.4 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+3STAMTotal WAR: +0.65 (65 IP)+0.7WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026A+Tri-City Dust Devils15338158418320%2.520.0%5.8%14.2%2.4%3.793.45+0.5
ROSMLBLAA25027112261030%1.123.2%9.0%14.2%3.0%4.304.30+0.1
2026 TotalMLBLAA652706718624.8%6.7%18.1%2.4%4.003.80+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBLAA26027114271030%1.023.6%8.8%14.8%3.0%4.264.23+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career15338158329420%2.520.0%5.8%14.2%2.4%3.793.45+0.5
/ 200 IP7916200832168472120%2.520.0%5.8%14.2%2.4%3.793.45+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 841138 (OGILVIE) 4.30 23.2%9.0%3.0%
Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP 25 SU 3.74 22.4%10.2%2.3%.330 4.97 16.5%3.9%101 +1.23 3.74 140 79
Dylan King R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 25 SW 4.28 26.7%9.8%4.0%.266 4.28 121 79
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 25 SW 4.65 17.1%9.6%3.2%.289 3.44 20.0%7.8%45 -1.21 1.94 143 79
Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 25 SU 4.36 21.7%10.1%3.3%.311 5.39 24.0%10.9%22 +1.03 4.36 152 79
Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 25 SW 4.72 19.9%9.3%3.9%.315 4.72 146 79
Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.05 FIP 25 SU 4.05 19.7%5.3%3.5%.283 3.86 19.3%11.7%124 -0.19 3.47 171 78
Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 4.08 FIP 24 SU 4.08 21.3%7.5%3.3%.312 4.08 100 78
Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.26 FIP 25 SU 4.26 18.9%10.2%2.7%.271 4.65 19.5%11.5%99 +0.39 3.81 233 78
Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP 25 SU 3.75 25.5%8.4%3.2%.340 4.62 22.5%13.6%185 +0.87 3.75 223 78
Brad Bass R 2026 · 4.01 FIP 25 SU 4.01 21.6%8.1%3.1%.286 4.01 247 78
Jake Curtis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP 24 SU 3.34 19.3%6.5%1.9%.338 3.34 105 77
Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP 25 SU 3.90 22.8%7.1%3.3%.284 3.25 20.8%10.5%125 -0.65 3.08 201 77
Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.73 FIP 25 SU 3.73 21.8%6.2%3.1%.261 5.72 17.2%8.3%118 +1.99 3.73 191 77
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 77
Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.88 FIP 25 SU 3.88 25.6%8.0%3.5%.299 5.10 22.4%6.5%121 +1.22 3.88 158 77
Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP 25 SW 4.19 19.7%10.6%2.6%.256 4.43 18.4%2.3%111 +0.24 3.87 192 77
Coleman Huntley III R 2029 · 4.14 FIP 28 SW 4.14 20.2%7.4%3.3%.348 3.66 23.4%13.2%86 -0.48 2.38 160 76
Miguel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.68 FIP 25 SU 3.68 21.3%9.0%2.2%.305 4.77 19.1%9.7%83 +1.09 2.54 309 76
Joe Vogatsky R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SU 4.82 21.0%8.8%4.3%.326 4.82 120 76
Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.51 FIP 24 SU 4.51 20.7%9.6%3.5%.281 4.91 21.2%5.7%55 +0.40 4.51 121 76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION22723.4%8.9%1.154.28
Noé Ramirez ('22)55224.8%9.0%1.334.19
David Hernandez ('19)55425.0%7.9%1.144.10
Zach McAllister ('18)45724.8%7.9%1.143.63
Randall Delgado ('17)37022.2%9.2%0.903.78
Santiago Casilla ('18)45223.5%9.6%0.963.49
Carlos Torres ('17)37120.1%9.0%0.973.77