Matt Dunaway

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 232 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	26	A+SF	8	1	15	1.84	3.17	16.1%	3.6%	—	K 12.4% · BB 4.1% · FIP 3.82
2026	27	MIX2 levels	23	1	35	5.09	3.78	24.5%	7.3%	—	K 19.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.99
2027PROJ	28	MLBSF	15	0	16	4.48	4.48	20.0%	7.6%	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBSF	6	0	6	4.54	4.59	20.1%	8.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29) · Marc Magliaro (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%20.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%12.4%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	12.4%	4.1%	8.3%	2.3%	1.84	3.82	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	12.4%	4.1%	8.3%	2.3%	1.84	3.82	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	8	1	15	56	9	2	1	12%	1.8	16.1%	3.6%	12.5%	1.8%	1.84	3.17	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	35	151	37	11	5	4%	1.5	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	5.09	4.99	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	1	35	151	37	11	5	4%	1.5	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	4.7%	5.09	4.99	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	1	35	151	37	11	5	4%	1.5	24.5%	7.3%	17.2%	3.3%	5.09	3.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SF	15	0	16	68	14	5	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	7.6%	12.4%	3.2%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	84	17	7	3	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.59	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.21	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	66	33	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.0%	12.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.21	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		31	2	50	207	36	14	8	6%	1.6	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.0%	4.14	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	8	200	828	146	56	33	6%	1.6	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.0%	4.14	4.67	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Dunaway (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	20.0%	7.6%	3.2%	—	4.59	20.1%	12.2%	20	+0.11	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	88
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	82
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	82
Cristhian Martinez R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	20.0%	4.5%	2.9%	.312	3.43	19.8%	14.6%	151	-0.18	3.09	204	81
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	81
Evan Scribner R 2013 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	16.7%	6.1%	2.9%	.271	4.59	26.9%	25.2%	60	+0.53	3.23	136	80
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	80
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	80
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	80
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	80
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	79
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	250	79
Chris Martin R 2014 · 3.53 FIP	28	SU	3.53	20.3%	5.8%	2.6%	.408	3.24	18.1%	11.1%	49	-0.29	1.76	431	79
Leo Rosales R 2009 · 3.85 FIP	28	SU	3.85	16.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.250	4.62	15.0%	3.7%	16	+0.77	3.85	130	79
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	79
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	79