Jefferson Vargas

Jefferson VargasSS DSL CLE Goryl

Age 18 L/R 5'9" / 148 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 79 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .266 / .239

PA79

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP260

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.4M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	161	138	20	3	1	0	19	54	2	5	1	145	258	181	439	36	235	34	12	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	161	128	27	4	1	0	29	36	2	5	1	211	365	258	623	47	290	22	18	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	55	46	6	1	1	0	7	13	2	1	1	130	273	196	468	65	182	24	13	209	18	-5	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
YTD	18	ROK	PIT	—	55	42	7	1	1	0	11	9	2	1	1	167	364	238	602	71	212	16	20	301	89	-1	-0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	18	ROK	PIT	0%	79	71	13	2	1	0	7	21	1	1	0	183	266	239	505	56	258	27	9	247	47	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	PIT	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		257	—	—	236	39	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	PIT	—	55	47	6	1	1	0	7	13	2	1	1	128	273	191	464	64	176	24	13	209	18	-5	-0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
TOT	18	ROK	PIT	—	134	117	19	3	2	0	14	34	3	2	1	162	269	222	491	60	229	25	10	232	35	-10	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	222	196	38	6	2	2	21	59	3	3	1	194	282	276	557	82	263	27	9	259	56	-11	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	355	313	63	11	3	4	34	92	5	5	2	201	290	294	584	93	267	26	10	268	64	-15	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	455	402	82	14	3	6	43	116	7	7	2	204	292	299	591	95	269	25	9	275	68	-16	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.2
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	525	462	96	16	4	8	50	133	8	8	3	208	296	312	608	104	270	25	10	279	72	-17	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.4
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	573	504	105	18	4	9	55	144	9	9	3	208	298	313	611	105	271	25	10	281	73	-17	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.6
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	604	532	113	19	5	10	58	152	9	10	3	212	301	323	624	111	272	25	10	283	75	-17	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.7
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	622	547	116	19	5	11	60	156	10	10	3	212	301	325	627	113	272	25	10	284	75	-17	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.8
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	631	555	118	20	5	11	61	158	10	10	3	213	302	326	628	114	272	25	10	284	76	-17	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.8
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	632	556	118	20	5	11	61	159	10	10	3	212	301	326	627	113	272	25	10	285	76	-17	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.8
2036	28	MLB	PIT	59%	627	551	116	19	5	11	61	159	10	10	3	211	301	323	624	113	272	25	10	284	75	-18	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.7
2037	29	MLB	PIT	61%	618	542	113	19	4	10	61	158	10	9	3	208	300	314	614	105	271	26	10	282	74	-18	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.5
2038	30	MLB	PIT	62%	607	533	110	18	4	10	60	156	9	9	3	206	297	311	609	105	270	26	10	279	72	-19	+1	-2	+7	+17	0.3
2027	19	MLB	PIT	34%	76	68	14	2	1	1	7	20	1	1	0	206	289	309	598	103	261	26	9	248	48	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	PIT	48%	172	151	30	5	1	2	16	45	3	3	1	199	288	285	573	86	265	26	9	256	54	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2029	21	MLB	PIT	54%	247	218	44	7	2	3	23	63	4	4	1	202	290	294	583	92	268	26	9	262	59	-11	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2030	22	MLB	PIT	57%	297	262	54	9	2	5	28	75	5	5	2	206	295	313	608	107	269	25	9	266	62	-13	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
2031	23	MLB	PIT	58%	330	291	60	10	2	5	31	83	5	5	2	206	294	306	599	100	270	25	9	269	64	-14	+0	+0	+4	+9	-0.0
2032	24	MLB	PIT	57%	344	303	65	11	3	6	33	86	5	6	2	215	302	330	632	116	271	25	10	270	65	-14	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.0
2033	25	MLB	PIT	57%	353	310	66	11	3	6	34	89	6	6	2	213	303	326	629	113	271	25	10	271	66	-14	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.1
2034	26	MLB	PIT	57%	357	314	66	11	3	6	34	90	6	6	2	210	299	322	621	111	271	25	10	272	66	-14	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.1
2035	27	MLB	PIT	55%	351	308	65	11	3	6	34	88	6	6	2	211	302	325	626	114	271	25	10	272	66	-13	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.1
2036	28	MLB	PIT	59%	371	326	68	11	3	6	36	94	6	6	2	209	299	316	615	107	270	25	10	271	66	-14	+0	-0	+4	+11	0.0
2037	29	MLB	PIT	61%	377	331	68	11	3	6	37	96	6	6	2	205	297	311	608	106	270	25	10	270	64	-15	+0	-1	+4	+11	-0.1
2038	30	MLB	PIT	62%	378	332	68	11	3	6	37	97	6	6	2	205	296	310	606	105	269	26	10	267	63	-16	+0	-1	+4	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3653	3215	668	110	29	58	350	926	59	60	20	208	297	314	611	106	271	25	10	268	63	-151	+4	-3	+39	+104	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	119	20	5	10	62	165	10	11	4	208	296	313	609	105	273	25	10	268	63	-27	+1	-0	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	6711	5902	1221	204	51	103	651	1717	103	106	33	207	297	311	608	104	272	26	10	278	71	-220	+8	-4	+72	+190	4.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	572	119	20	5	10	63	166	10	10	3	208	298	313	611	105	273	26	10	278	71	-21	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	161	128	27	4	1	0	29	36	2	5	1	211	365	258	623	47	290	22	18	300	88	-2	+1	—	—	+5	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,786	59	59	209	295	315	+41	+24	3.1	2.9
	/162	664	10	10	209	295	315	+7.1	+4.2	0.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jefferson Vargas (OGILVIE)	18	30	20	45	60	162/269/222	60	229	0	2	25%	10%	35	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nicoll Parra 2012 · A	18	39	36→30	44→55	45	183/264/252	70	275	4	8	32%	8%	43	-2.2	197/307/251	54	268	1	18	24%	12%	63	-0.9	186/321/224	38	254	0	27	22%	14%	60	-0.3
✕Roynier Hernandez 2023 · A	18	44	34→30	46→50	53	203/279/257	54	256	2	8	20%	10%	50	-1.7	230/299/285	55	293	1	9	20%	9%	65	-0.7	244/304/306	62	315	3	7	22%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	40	-2.4	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	59	-1.1	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Adonis Figuereo 2019 · A	18	37	38→30	46→45	44	182/246/261	79	250	5	8	28%	7%	37	-2.6	193/263/271	78	270	6	6	28%	8%	47	-1.9	194/266/259	66	250	6	5	24%	8%	43	-0.8
✕Kleininger Teran 2007 · A	18	43	36→30	46→45	46	204/263/271	66	266	4	5	24%	7%	46	-2.0	214/282/273	59	266	2	5	19%	8%	55	-1.4	228/286/289	61	277	1	3	17%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Deivi Estrada 2019 · A	18	40	36→30	45→50	43	190/259/260	71	280	2	10	31%	7%	43	-2.2	210/287/274	64	290	3	9	26%	9%	58	-1.2	195/270/241	46	289	2	8	30%	8%	41	-0.7
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Ronier Lascarro 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	47→50	47	199/274/261	62	291	2	7	30%	9%	50	-1.8	201/287/276	75	283	4	9	27%	10%	59	-1.1	200/308/280	80	249	4	10	19%	12%	66	-0.3
✕Iraj Serrano 2017 · A	18	38	35→30	50	50	178/255/236	59	221	2	10	20%	8%	36	-2.7	208/295/256	48	264	1	10	19%	9%	57	-1.2	206/304/235	29	266	0	10	20%	10%	54	-0.5
✕Carlos Goris 2019 · A	18	35	35→30	51→55	43	166/241/233	66	250	2	7	32%	8%	28	-3.2	189/268/264	75	265	5	12	28%	9%	48	-1.9	169/264/229	60	224	6	21	25%	11%	35	-1.1
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Michael De La Cruz 2015 · A	19	43	35→40	46→50	50	199/283/256	57	281	2	10	28%	10%	52	-1.6	188/254/253	65	290	3	9	33%	8%	38	-2.6	169/235/227	58	265	2	10	34%	7%	21	-1.3
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/265	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	40	-2.4	198/256/259	61	255	3	6	22%	6%	40	-2.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Jose Perez 2022 · A	18	41	39→40	42→45	45	194/268/281	86	278	5	6	30%	8%	52	-1.6	200/299/287	87	269	5	7	25%	11%	68	-0.5	190/311/283	93	253	5	7	24%	13%	71	-0.1
✕Adrian Alfaro 2014 · A	18	40	34→30	46→50	49	189/263/243	54	253	1	9	24%	9%	40	-2.4	203/266/265	62	249	2	11	18%	7%	46	-2.0	202/264/260	58	239	1	13	15%	7%	41	-1.0
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	69	-0.4	221/287/267	45	270	0	22	16%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6