Dencer Diaz — OGILVIE

Dencer DiazSS DSL Twins

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .281 / .288

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	95	18	1	0	1	9	25	0	4	2	189	260	232	491	42	254	24	9	231	42	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	95	18	1	0	1	9	25	0	4	2	189	260	232	491	42	246	24	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	94	18	1	0	1	9	25	0	4	2	191	260	234	494	43	254	24	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	94	18	1	0	1	9	25	0	4	2	191	260	234	494	43	254	24	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		289	25	12	262	64	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	182	165	36	5	1	2	14	45	1	3	1	218	283	297	580	79	291	25	8	273	71	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	323	291	67	10	2	5	26	79	3	6	1	230	300	330	630	100	293	24	8	281	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	431	389	89	13	2	7	35	105	4	8	2	229	299	326	626	98	294	24	8	286	80	-10	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	507	456	107	16	3	9	41	122	5	9	2	235	305	342	647	107	295	24	8	290	82	-11	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	558	502	117	17	3	10	45	134	6	10	2	233	304	339	642	106	295	24	8	292	84	-11	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	592	533	125	19	3	11	48	142	6	11	3	235	305	343	648	109	296	24	8	294	85	-11	+1	+0	+6	+13	1.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	612	551	129	19	3	12	50	147	6	11	3	234	305	345	650	111	296	24	8	295	86	-10	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	622	559	131	19	3	12	51	149	7	11	3	234	306	343	650	109	296	24	8	296	86	-10	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	623	559	131	19	3	12	52	150	7	11	3	234	307	343	651	109	296	24	8	296	86	-10	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	619	555	130	19	3	12	52	150	7	11	3	234	308	344	652	110	296	24	8	295	86	-10	+1	-1	+7	+13	1.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	610	548	128	19	3	12	51	149	6	11	3	234	306	345	651	111	295	24	8	293	85	-11	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.8
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	600	538	124	18	3	11	51	148	6	11	2	230	304	336	641	106	294	25	8	291	83	-12	+1	-2	+6	+13	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	586	526	119	17	3	10	49	146	6	10	2	226	299	327	626	101	292	25	8	287	80	-14	+1	-3	+6	+13	0.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	568	509	115	16	3	10	48	144	6	10	2	226	300	328	628	102	290	25	8	282	77	-16	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.0
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	538	483	105	14	2	8	45	139	5	9	2	217	291	304	595	87	286	26	8	275	72	-18	+1	-4	+6	+12	-0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	63	57	13	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	228	302	316	617	88	291	25	8	268	71	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	157	143	32	5	1	2	12	39	1	3	1	224	288	315	603	91	293	25	8	274	76	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	234	211	48	7	1	4	19	57	2	4	1	227	297	327	624	100	294	24	8	279	80	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	287	259	60	9	2	5	23	69	3	5	1	232	302	340	642	108	295	24	8	283	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	321	289	68	10	2	6	26	77	3	6	1	235	305	346	651	111	296	24	8	285	84	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	337	303	72	11	2	6	27	81	4	6	1	238	308	347	655	109	296	24	8	286	85	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	347	312	74	11	2	7	28	83	4	6	1	237	308	353	661	115	297	24	8	287	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	352	316	75	11	2	7	29	84	4	6	1	237	309	351	661	114	296	24	8	288	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	346	310	74	11	2	7	29	83	4	6	1	239	312	355	667	116	296	24	8	288	86	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	340	305	73	11	2	7	28	82	4	6	1	239	312	357	669	118	296	24	8	287	86	-6	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	326	293	68	10	2	6	27	79	3	6	1	232	303	341	645	109	295	24	8	286	85	-6	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	316	283	66	10	1	6	27	78	3	6	1	233	307	339	646	106	295	25	9	283	83	-6	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	306	274	62	9	1	5	26	76	3	5	1	226	300	321	621	95	293	25	8	279	80	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	319	286	63	9	1	5	27	81	3	5	1	220	294	311	605	91	290	25	8	274	77	-9	+1	-2	+3	+7	0.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	292	263	58	8	1	5	24	75	3	5	1	221	293	316	609	95	286	26	8	268	72	-10	+1	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4343	3904	906	134	22	79	357	1060	45	76	14	232	304	338	642	106	297	24	8	283	82	-91	+10	-8	+47	+94	5.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	135	20	3	12	53	159	7	11	2	231	303	337	640	106	295	24	8	283	82	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8083	7266	1672	241	40	144	668	1976	81	146	36	230	302	334	636	104	295	24	8	289	82	-169	+15	-15	+85	+173	9.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	134	19	3	12	54	159	7	12	3	229	302	334	636	104	293	24	8	289	82	-14	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.7	4,432	80	79	232	300	338	+47	+27	8.2	6.9
/162	664	12	12	+7.1	+4.0	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dencer Diaz (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	216/281/288	72	289	1	2	25%	8%	64	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→45	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	47	-2.6	202/253/288	86	262	6	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	263/305/392	130	320	14	17	22%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	38→48	37→45	46→55	47	183/255/256	73	241	5	11	25%	8%	47	-2.6	207/259/305	98	267	5	11	23%	6%	59	-1.7	254/307/365	110	342	6	19	26%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→50	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	196/245/302	106	303	10	7	37%	5%	53	-2.1	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	59	-1.7	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	46	-2.6	268/308/373	106	324	7	13	19%	4%	89	+0.3
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	45	-2.7	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	55	-2.0	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	43	-2.8	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	57	-1.8	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Anthony García 2010 · A	18	43→47	37→55	49→45	41	206/264/284	79	285	4	8	28%	6%	56	-1.9	223/292/361	138	279	14	5	24%	6%	85	+0.2	221/285/393	172	279	18	3	27%	6%	88	+0.2
✕Maximo Rivera 2011 · A	18	40	35→45	46→60	39	188/247/243	55	285	3	9	33%	6%	40	-3.0	208/263/297	89	272	9	19	26%	6%	59	-1.7	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	59	-1.6	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	55	-1.9	249/315/369	120	307	12	15	22%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Diego Infante 2018 · A	18	42→52	35→45	54→50	41	199/244/266	67	276	2	12	28%	6%	43	-2.8	197/241/267	70	299	4	10	33%	5%	43	-2.8	232/284/356	123	350	13	14	36%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→48	37→45	47→55	46	188/255/261	74	254	4	8	27%	8%	48	-2.5	196/259/258	62	280	4	10	29%	7%	48	-2.5	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A	18	36	36→45	51→50	41	173/241/239	66	265	4	16	34%	7%	38	-3.2	220/268/311	91	310	5	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	226/270/319	93	319	4	12	29%	5%	61	-0.5
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→50	45	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	37	-3.3	211/249/327	116	282	13	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Dawel Lugo 2013 · A	18	40→50	38→45	53→45	40	196/239/276	81	242	5	8	22%	4%	44	-2.8	221/248/303	82	273	7	4	21%	3%	53	-2.1	248/274/349	102	291	7	6	17%	3%	71	-0.8
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2008 · A	18	40	37→40	45→55	39	190/264/262	72	298	5	8	36%	7%	52	-2.2	202/281/278	76	301	6	15	32%	8%	62	-1.4	192/271/258	67	293	7	17	34%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2009 · A	17	38→48	38→40	47→60	43	186/234/266	80	229	6	9	21%	5%	40	-3.0	207/247/268	61	248	2	12	17%	4%	45	-2.7	250/302/318	68	280	3	13	11%	5%	75	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps