Dencer Diaz

SS DSL Twins

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1693ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIN	104	.247/.356/.303	1	4	32	—	.172/.260/.215
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIN	214	.218/.284/.284	2	4	63	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIN	25	.222/.290/.297	0	0	67	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBMIN	84	.225/.293/.307	1	2	71	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Z-Con%89

K%75

BB%56

wOBA40

Whiff%39

Speed37

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .282 / .282

PA37

HR0

K%25

BB%8

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	93	16	1	0	1	11	21	0	4	2	172	260	215	475	43	214	20	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	93	16	1	0	1	11	21	0	4	2	172	260	215	475	43	211	20	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	92	16	1	0	1	11	21	0	4	2	174	260	217	477	43	214	20	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	104	92	16	1	0	1	11	21	0	4	2	174	260	217	477	43	214	20	11	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	214	194	43	6	1	2	17	53	1	4	1	218	284	284	569	66	289	25	8	261	63	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	74	67	15	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	222	289	296	586	74	290	24	8	268	67	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	50%	168	152	35	5	1	2	13	41	1	3	1	225	293	307	600	82	291	24	8	274	71	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	278	252	58	8	2	4	22	67	2	5	2	227	296	317	613	89	292	24	8	279	75	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	61%	374	338	78	11	2	6	30	90	3	7	2	230	299	325	624	95	293	24	8	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	63%	437	394	91	13	2	7	36	104	4	8	2	232	301	332	634	101	294	24	8	287	80	-10	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	473	427	99	14	3	8	39	113	4	9	3	232	302	334	636	102	294	24	8	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	494	447	104	15	3	9	40	118	4	9	3	232	302	336	637	103	294	24	8	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	501	451	105	15	3	9	41	120	4	9	3	231	301	333	634	102	293	24	8	287	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	501	451	104	15	3	8	41	121	4	9	3	230	299	329	628	99	293	24	8	284	79	-13	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	493	446	102	15	2	8	40	121	4	8	3	227	296	323	619	95	292	25	8	281	76	-14	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	222	290	297	586	75	290	24	8	268	67	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	50%	84	76	16	2	0	1	7	20	1	2	0	225	293	307	601	82	291	24	8	274	71	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	160	145	33	5	1	2	13	39	1	3	1	228	297	317	613	89	292	24	8	279	75	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	61%	230	207	47	7	1	3	19	55	2	4	1	230	299	325	624	95	293	24	8	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	63%	276	250	58	8	2	5	22	66	2	5	1	232	301	333	634	101	294	24	8	287	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	307	276	64	9	2	5	25	73	3	6	2	232	302	335	637	102	294	24	8	288	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	321	289	68	10	2	6	26	77	3	6	2	233	302	336	638	104	294	24	8	289	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	326	293	69	10	2	6	27	78	3	6	2	231	301	333	634	102	294	24	8	287	80	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	326	294	68	10	2	5	27	79	2	6	2	230	299	329	628	99	293	24	8	285	79	-8	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	320	289	66	9	2	5	26	78	2	5	2	228	296	323	619	96	292	24	8	281	76	-9	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2375	2142	494	71	14	38	194	571	19	43	13	231	300	330	630	99	295	24	8	285	77	-60	+3	-1	+25	+51	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	135	19	4	10	53	156	5	12	4	230	300	328	627	97	295	24	8	285	77	-16	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3934	3552	814	115	21	63	322	943	31	73	24	229	299	327	625	97	293	24	8	282	77	-99	+5	-2	+41	+83	2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	134	19	3	10	53	156	5	12	4	228	298	322	620	94	292	24	8	282	77	-17	+1	-0	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Twins · 104 PAwOBA .303 → .216 (−88)K% 16.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.35%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	20.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.42%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.022	10.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.39%	÷0.991	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	19.44%
Doubles /BIP	2.78%	÷0.982	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	1.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.39%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.70%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .303 → .216; ISO .056 → .032; BABIP .296 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
#3Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	/162	664	4	15	240*	300*	338*	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#4Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
#4Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	/162	664	3	5	233*	291*	316*	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.6	2,412	38	43	231	297	329	+26	+21	3.6	3.5
	/162	664	11	12	231	297	329	+7.1	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#6Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3

Dencer Diaz

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps