Dencer Diaz — OGILVIE

Dencer DiazSS DSL Twins

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .281 / .288

PA90

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO73

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$34M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	104	95	19	2	0	1	9	25	0	4	2	200	269	253	522	53	261	24	9	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	MIN	—	90	82	17	2	0	1	7	23	1	1	0	207	278	268	546	61	289	26	8	263	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIN	34%	182	165	36	5	1	2	14	46	1	3	1	218	283	297	580	79	291	25	8	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	20	MLB	MIN	48%	323	291	67	10	2	5	26	80	3	5	1	230	300	330	630	100	293	25	8	281	73	-10	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2029	21	MLB	MIN	54%	431	389	89	13	2	7	35	105	4	6	1	229	299	326	626	98	294	24	8	287	77	-11	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.7
2030	22	MLB	MIN	57%	507	456	107	16	3	9	41	123	5	7	2	235	305	342	647	107	295	24	8	290	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.9
2031	23	MLB	MIN	58%	558	502	117	17	3	10	45	135	6	8	2	233	304	339	642	106	296	24	8	292	82	-12	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.1
2032	24	MLB	MIN	57%	592	533	124	18	3	11	48	143	6	9	2	233	303	340	643	107	297	24	8	294	83	-11	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.3
2033	25	MLB	MIN	57%	612	550	129	19	3	12	50	147	7	9	2	235	306	345	652	111	297	24	8	295	84	-11	+1	+0	+7	+17	1.4
2034	26	MLB	MIN	57%	622	559	131	19	3	12	51	150	7	9	2	234	306	343	650	109	297	24	8	296	85	-11	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.5
2035	27	MLB	MIN	55%	623	559	131	19	3	12	52	150	7	9	2	234	307	343	651	109	297	24	8	296	85	-11	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.5
2036	28	MLB	MIN	55%	619	555	130	19	3	12	52	150	7	9	2	234	308	344	652	110	296	24	8	295	84	-11	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.3
2037	29	MLB	MIN	53%	610	548	128	19	3	12	51	149	6	8	2	234	306	345	651	111	296	24	8	293	83	-12	+1	-1	+7	+17	1.1
2038	30	MLB	MIN	53%	600	538	124	18	3	11	51	148	6	7	2	230	304	336	641	106	295	25	8	291	81	-13	+1	-2	+6	+17	0.9
2027	19	MLB	MIN	34%	63	57	13	2	0	1	5	16	1	1	0	228	302	316	617	88	292	25	8	268	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	MIN	48%	157	141	32	5	1	2	13	39	2	2	1	227	301	319	620	92	293	25	8	274	68	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	21	MLB	MIN	54%	234	211	48	7	1	4	19	57	2	3	1	227	297	327	624	100	294	24	8	279	72	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB	MIN	57%	287	259	60	9	2	5	23	70	3	4	1	232	302	340	642	108	295	24	8	283	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	MIN	58%	321	289	68	10	2	6	26	78	3	5	1	235	305	346	651	111	296	24	8	285	76	-9	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.5
2032	24	MLB	MIN	57%	337	303	71	11	2	6	27	81	4	5	1	234	305	343	649	109	297	24	8	286	77	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB	MIN	57%	347	312	74	11	2	7	28	84	4	5	1	237	308	353	661	115	297	24	8	287	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2034	26	MLB	MIN	57%	352	316	75	11	2	7	29	85	4	5	1	237	309	351	661	114	297	24	8	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2035	27	MLB	MIN	55%	346	310	74	11	2	7	29	84	4	5	1	239	312	355	667	116	297	24	8	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2036	28	MLB	MIN	55%	340	304	72	10	2	7	29	83	4	5	1	237	312	352	664	115	296	24	9	287	78	-8	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.5
2037	29	MLB	MIN	53%	326	292	68	10	2	6	28	80	3	4	1	233	307	342	649	110	296	25	9	286	77	-9	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.4
2038	30	MLB	MIN	53%	316	283	66	10	1	6	27	78	3	4	1	233	307	339	646	106	295	25	9	283	75	-9	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3426	3077	721	107	19	64	283	835	37	48	11	234	306	344	650	110	299	24	8	285	76	-93	+5	-2	+37	+97	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	137	20	4	12	54	158	7	9	2	235	307	344	652	110	299	24	8	285	76	-18	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	6473	5822	1349	196	32	117	532	1574	66	94	23	232	303	337	640	105	296	24	8	291	81	-142	+10	-4	+69	+183	11.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	136	20	3	12	53	158	7	9	2	232	304	338	642	106	297	24	8	291	81	-14	+1	-0	+7	+18	1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	104	89	22	2	0	1	15	17	0	4	2	247	356	303	659	56	296	16	14	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,515	65	50	234	302	342	+38	+21	6.6	5.9
	/162	664	12	9	234	302	342	+7.1	+4.0	1.3	pk7: 5
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dencer Diaz (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	216/281/288	72	289	1	1	25%	8%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
●José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→50	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	48	-1.9	201/251/277	76	239	4	11	17%	4%	43	-2.2	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→50	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	40	-2.4	202/253/286	84	263	5	7	24%	6%	46	-2.0	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Francisco Herrera 2012 · A	18	46	40→45	47→30	49	220/280/315	95	261	7	8	19%	7%	66	-0.6	225/284/324	99	267	9	5	19%	6%	69	-0.4	225/284/320	95	260	10	3	17%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Deiber Olivera 2012 · A	19	44	38→40	50→45	44	210/259/296	86	269	4	8	23%	6%	50	-1.7	236/277/312	76	275	3	7	15%	4%	63	-0.9	255/291/322	67	289	2	7	12%	3%	69	-0.1
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Jose Astudillo 2022 · A	18	43	37→30	52→50	46	204/257/278	73	249	3	9	19%	6%	46	-2.0	230/283/304	74	270	3	15	15%	6%	63	-0.9	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2019 · A	18	46→51	41→45	48→45	46	220/292/328	108	287	7	4	25%	7%	74	-0.1	209/280/297	88	296	5	4	29%	7%	61	-1.0	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3