Luis Hernandez — OGILVIE

Luis HernandezC DSL Phillies White

Age 18 L/R 5'9" / 183 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 110 proj PA

wRC+43

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .257 / .261

PA110

HR1

K%36

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%20%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
Totals		$13M		$20M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	131	116	7	1	0	0	11	71	4	0	0	60	168	69	237	9	156	54	8	122	-48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	131	108	11	2	0	0	19	44	4	0	0	102	260	120	380	19	172	34	15	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	—	110	100	19	3	1	1	8	40	1	1	1	190	257	270	527	80	293	36	7	241	43	-7	-0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	53%	200	180	35	6	1	3	15	69	3	3	1	194	268	289	557	94	295	34	8	255	53	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	60%	337	303	60	10	2	5	26	112	5	5	2	198	272	294	566	96	297	33	8	265	61	-15	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	62%	441	396	82	14	3	8	35	144	7	7	3	207	283	318	601	111	297	33	8	272	66	-17	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.4
2030	22	MLB	—	62%	514	459	96	16	3	10	41	166	9	8	3	209	287	322	609	113	298	32	8	276	69	-18	+0	+1	+9	+15	0.7
2031	23	MLB	—	62%	520	465	99	17	3	11	41	167	9	8	3	213	289	333	623	120	299	32	8	279	72	-17	+0	+1	+9	+15	0.8
2032	24	MLB	—	61%	520	465	99	17	3	11	41	167	9	8	3	213	289	333	623	120	300	32	8	281	73	-16	+0	+1	+9	+15	0.9
2033	25	MLB	—	61%	520	464	100	17	3	12	42	167	9	8	3	216	293	343	636	127	300	32	8	283	75	-15	+0	+1	+9	+15	1.0
2034	26	MLB	—	61%	520	464	100	17	3	12	42	167	9	8	3	216	293	343	636	127	300	32	8	284	75	-14	+0	+1	+9	+15	1.1
2035	27	MLB	—	60%	520	464	99	16	3	12	42	167	9	8	3	213	291	338	630	125	300	32	8	284	75	-14	+0	+1	+9	+15	1.1
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	520	463	98	16	3	12	43	168	9	8	3	212	291	337	628	125	300	32	8	283	75	-15	+0	-0	+9	+15	1.0
2027	19	MLB	—	53%	107	96	19	3	1	1	8	37	2	2	1	198	274	281	555	83	295	35	7	255	53	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	60%	204	183	36	6	1	3	16	68	3	3	1	197	272	290	562	93	297	33	8	265	61	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	62%	273	245	51	9	2	5	21	89	5	4	2	208	284	322	607	114	297	33	8	272	66	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2030	22	MLB	—	62%	320	287	60	10	2	6	25	103	5	5	2	209	284	321	604	111	298	32	8	276	69	-11	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.4
2031	23	MLB	—	62%	324	290	61	10	2	7	26	104	5	5	2	210	287	331	618	121	299	32	8	279	72	-10	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.5
2032	24	MLB	—	61%	319	286	61	10	2	7	25	102	5	5	2	213	288	336	624	122	300	32	8	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2033	25	MLB	—	61%	317	284	60	10	2	7	25	102	5	5	2	211	287	335	621	123	300	32	8	283	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2034	26	MLB	—	61%	317	284	60	10	2	7	25	102	5	5	2	211	287	335	621	123	300	32	8	284	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2035	27	MLB	—	60%	311	278	59	10	2	7	25	100	5	5	2	212	289	338	627	126	300	32	8	284	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	308	275	59	10	2	7	25	99	5	5	2	215	292	342	634	127	300	32	8	283	75	-9	+0	-0	+6	+9	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2800	2508	526	88	18	57	221	906	45	44	18	210	286	327	613	118	300	32	8	278	71	-92	+2	+2	+50	+79	4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	121	20	4	13	51	210	10	10	4	208	283	323	606	115	298	32	8	278	71	-21	+0	+1	+12	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	4853	4339	894	150	28	97	387	1605	83	72	28	206	284	321	604	115	299	33	8	273	67	-180	+3	+4	+87	+138	5.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	120	20	4	13	52	215	11	10	4	207	284	322	606	115	300	33	8	273	67	-24	+0	+1	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	131	108	11	2	0	0	19	44	4	0	0	102	260	120	380	19	172	34	15	205	15	-13	+0	—	—	+4	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Dioner Navarrolast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,544 PA	12	3,544	77	14	250	308	370	+63	-1	12.1	11.6
	/162	664	14	3	250	308	370	+11.9	-0.2	2.3	pk7: 11
#4Yuniesky Betancourtlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,278 PA	9	4,278	80	30	261	285	388	+41	-20	6.1	7.2
	/162	664	12	5	261	285	388	+6.4	-3.1	1.0	pk7: 8
#5Gerald Lairdlast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,690 PA	11	2,690	37	21	244	305	354	+48	-40	3.7	5.4
	/162	664	9	5	244	305	354	+11.9	-9.8	0.9	pk7: 7
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,821	58	45	211	284	328	+50	-12	4.1	3.9
	/162	664	14	10	211	284	328	+11.9	-2.8	1.0	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	18	55	55	45	—	185/257/261	76	293	1	1	36%	7%	43	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	43→45	38→45	46→50	44	201/275/277	76	311	6	9	35%	9%	54	-1.4	211/298/310	99	331	7	14	35%	9%	72	-0.2	226/292/355	129	316	11	14	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	44→47	38→50	46→50	41	211/266/287	76	294	6	6	29%	6%	52	-1.6	206/257/295	89	285	7	8	29%	6%	50	-1.7	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Abrahan Ramirez 2023 · A	18	48→46	38→45	48→55	45	221/293/307	86	324	3	10	30%	8%	69	-0.4	230/319/305	75	320	3	13	26%	11%	79	+0.3	224/322/292	68	319	1	14	26%	12%	75	-0.0
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	43→52	36→50	51→45	43	201/265/280	79	293	2	10	30%	7%	50	-1.8	231/294/317	86	328	5	6	29%	8%	71	-0.3	229/296/316	87	321	6	4	28%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Derek Bernard 2023 · A	17	47	39→45	50	38	219/272/304	85	333	5	10	34%	6%	59	-1.1	217/274/327	110	330	8	15	34%	7%	66	-0.6	221/280/331	110	355	11	13	38%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Joe Rizzo 2017 · A	19	45→50	38→55	47→40	40	215/264/294	79	308	6	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	218/269/304	86	312	8	3	31%	6%	57	-1.2	239/284/396	157	292	21	2	25%	5%	85	+0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
●Manuel Pena 2023 · A	19	42→43	39→50	47→50	40	202/256/287	84	297	7	10	33%	7%	47	-1.9	198/239/284	86	294	6	8	33%	5%	39	-2.5	216/250/345	129	289	16	6	31%	4%	58	-0.9
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Luis Liberato 2014 · A	18	41→51	37→55	48→50	41	195/252/268	73	282	4	13	31%	6%	41	-2.3	192/253/275	83	290	4	11	32%	7%	43	-2.2	237/280/389	152	300	18	5	27%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Rio Ruiz 2013 · A	19	43→51	38→50	52→40	41	203/259/295	92	291	4	6	30%	6%	50	-1.7	225/289/342	117	294	9	5	25%	8%	76	+0.0	236/304/339	103	303	8	2	23%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Ezequiel Pagan 2019 · A	19	42→52	36→45	42→50	41	195/257/260	64	308	3	8	35%	8%	41	-2.3	207/260/277	70	288	5	12	28%	6%	46	-2.0	242/294/349	107	300	10	9	22%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Ricardo Méndez 2019 · A	19	44	37→45	49→50	37	203/253/277	74	316	4	9	35%	6%	43	-2.2	204/258/285	81	328	4	11	36%	6%	48	-1.9	213/255/307	94	313	5	14	32%	5%	48	-1.1
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	37→47	35→45	44→45	45	175/255/243	68	260	2	6	31%	8%	37	-2.6	206/250/273	67	281	3	5	26%	5%	40	-2.4	255/291/351	96	335	7	7	25%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Steven Moya 2010 · A	18	41→44	41→60	45→50	42	200/268/290	90	290	9	6	33%	8%	54	-1.4	172/209/274	102	315	12	4	47%	4%	24	-3.5	224/249/423	200	293	28	7	34%	3%	79	+0.3
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	40	-2.4	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	59	-1.1	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Ryan Mount 2006 · A	19	42	38→50	50	42	194/262/277	83	304	5	8	35%	8%	48	-1.9	215/268/329	114	293	12	11	29%	6%	63	-0.8	251/293/410	160	306	19	8	24%	5%	95	+0.5
✕Elis Cuevas 2023 · A	18	46	39→40	45→65	43	204/286/292	87	341	5	7	38%	9%	63	-0.9	205/279/304	99	284	8	25	29%	7%	63	-0.8	193/272/292	99	258	12	43	29%	7%	54	-0.6