Pablo Martinez — OGILVIE

Pablo MartinezSS FCL Astros

Age 18 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 84 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .286 / .263

PA84

HR0

K%20

BB%7

BABIP271

ISO53

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER20

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$11M	+$11M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.3	$11M	+$10M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.4	$10M	+$10M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+2.4	$10M	+$8M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+2.2	$8M	+$6M
2037	Arb-3	$10M	+2.0	$7M	+$4M
Totals		$25M		$57M	+$48M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	189	38	4	2	0	17	42	12	21	4	201	307	243	551	42	253	19	8	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	177	47	6	2	1	29	30	12	21	4	266	404	339	743	73	309	14	13	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	HOU	—	106	89	22	2	2	0	9	14	5	17	1	247	350	315	664	67	289	13	8	281	73	-3	+3	+0	+1	+3	0.4
YTD	18	ROK	HOU	—	106	83	25	2	2	0	15	10	5	17	1	301	437	373	810	72	338	9	14	367	139	+5	+3	+0	+1	+3	1.2
ROS	18	ROK	HOU	0%	84	76	16	2	1	0	6	17	2	4	0	211	286	263	549	53	281	20	7	274	68	-3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.1
ROS	18	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		283	—	—	258	56	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	HOU	—	106	90	22	2	2	0	9	14	5	17	1	244	350	311	661	67	286	13	8	281	73	-3	+3	+0	+1	+3	0.4
TOT	18	ROK	HOU	—	190	165	38	4	3	0	15	31	7	21	1	230	321	291	612	61	281	16	8	278	71	-6	+4	+0	+2	+5	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	HOU	34%	271	242	55	8	2	3	21	56	6	8	1	227	305	314	619	87	284	21	8	284	75	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2028	20	MLB	HOU	48%	393	349	81	12	3	5	32	81	9	11	1	232	313	327	639	95	286	21	8	293	82	-8	+2	+0	+4	+11	0.9
2029	21	MLB	HOU	54%	484	431	101	15	4	7	39	99	11	13	2	234	314	336	650	102	287	20	8	298	87	-7	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.4
2030	22	MLB	HOU	57%	548	486	116	17	5	9	45	112	12	14	2	239	319	350	668	111	288	20	8	302	90	-6	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.7
2031	23	MLB	HOU	58%	591	524	126	19	5	10	49	120	13	15	2	240	321	353	674	113	289	20	8	305	92	-6	+2	+0	+6	+17	2.0
2032	24	MLB	HOU	57%	616	546	131	19	5	11	51	124	14	15	2	240	321	353	674	114	290	20	8	307	93	-5	+2	+0	+7	+17	2.2
2033	25	MLB	HOU	57%	627	556	134	20	5	12	52	126	14	16	2	241	322	360	681	119	290	20	8	308	94	-4	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.3
2034	26	MLB	HOU	57%	634	561	135	20	5	12	53	128	15	16	2	241	323	358	681	118	290	20	8	309	94	-4	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.4
2035	27	MLB	HOU	55%	634	560	135	20	5	12	54	128	15	16	2	241	324	359	683	118	290	20	9	309	94	-4	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.4
2036	28	MLB	HOU	55%	629	556	134	20	5	12	54	128	14	15	2	241	324	360	683	119	289	20	9	308	94	-4	+2	-1	+7	+18	2.2
2037	29	MLB	HOU	53%	619	547	130	19	5	11	53	127	14	14	2	238	321	351	672	113	289	21	9	306	92	-5	+2	-1	+7	+18	2.0
2038	30	MLB	HOU	53%	609	538	127	18	5	11	52	127	14	14	2	236	320	349	669	113	288	21	9	303	90	-7	+2	-2	+7	+17	1.7
2039	31	MLB	HOU	57%	595	526	124	18	5	10	51	126	13	13	2	236	319	346	665	110	286	21	9	300	87	-8	+2	-3	+6	+17	1.4
2040	32	MLB	HOU	59%	576	509	118	17	5	9	49	124	13	12	1	232	315	338	653	106	283	22	9	294	84	-11	+2	-4	+6	+16	1.0
2041	33	MLB	HOU	61%	546	483	109	15	4	8	46	120	12	11	1	226	309	323	632	97	280	22	8	288	79	-13	+2	-4	+6	+15	0.6
2042	34	MLB	HOU	57%	499	443	97	13	4	7	42	113	11	9	1	219	302	314	616	95	275	23	8	280	73	-15	+1	-5	+5	+14	0.1
2043	35	MLB	HOU	52%	443	394	82	10	3	5	37	104	9	8	1	208	291	287	578	79	270	23	8	272	66	-17	+1	-6	+5	+13	-0.4
2027	19	MLB	HOU	34%	93	84	19	3	1	1	7	19	2	3	0	226	301	321	623	95	286	20	8	269	64	-4	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2028	20	MLB	HOU	48%	190	169	41	6	2	3	15	39	4	5	1	243	319	355	674	112	288	21	8	278	71	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2029	21	MLB	HOU	54%	262	233	55	8	2	4	21	54	6	7	1	236	315	339	654	103	289	21	8	284	76	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2030	22	MLB	HOU	57%	310	275	66	10	3	5	25	63	7	8	1	240	319	353	672	113	291	20	8	288	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
2031	23	MLB	HOU	58%	340	301	73	11	3	6	28	69	8	9	1	243	323	359	682	116	291	20	8	291	81	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2032	24	MLB	HOU	57%	351	311	76	11	3	7	29	71	8	9	1	244	325	367	691	122	292	20	8	293	82	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2033	25	MLB	HOU	57%	356	315	77	11	3	7	30	72	8	9	1	244	326	365	691	121	292	20	8	294	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.9
2034	26	MLB	HOU	57%	359	318	78	12	3	7	30	72	8	9	1	245	326	368	694	123	292	20	8	294	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.9
2035	27	MLB	HOU	55%	352	311	76	11	3	7	30	71	8	9	1	244	327	367	693	122	292	20	9	295	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB	HOU	55%	345	305	75	11	3	7	29	70	8	8	1	246	327	370	698	125	292	20	8	294	83	-7	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.8
2037	29	MLB	HOU	53%	331	292	70	10	3	6	28	68	8	8	1	240	323	356	679	116	291	21	8	292	82	-7	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.7
2038	30	MLB	HOU	53%	321	283	68	10	3	6	28	67	7	7	1	240	324	360	684	120	290	21	9	289	80	-7	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.5
2039	31	MLB	HOU	57%	336	296	70	10	3	6	29	71	8	7	1	236	321	351	673	115	288	21	9	286	77	-9	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.4
2040	32	MLB	HOU	59%	341	301	70	10	3	5	29	73	8	7	1	233	317	336	652	103	285	21	9	281	73	-10	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.2
2041	33	MLB	HOU	61%	333	295	67	9	3	5	28	73	7	7	1	227	309	329	638	102	282	22	8	274	68	-12	+1	-3	+4	+9	-0.1
2042	34	MLB	HOU	57%	282	250	55	7	2	4	24	64	6	5	1	220	304	312	616	92	277	23	9	267	62	-12	+1	-3	+3	+8	-0.3
2043	35	MLB	HOU	52%	230	204	43	5	2	3	19	54	5	4	1	211	294	299	593	88	272	23	8	258	56	-12	+0	-3	+2	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5132	4544	1079	155	45	89	429	1070	116	121	16	237	319	350	669	113	290	21	8	286	77	-135	+18	-14	+55	+145	7.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	137	20	6	11	54	136	15	15	2	238	320	351	671	113	291	21	8	286	77	-17	+2	-2	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	9619	8516	1989	286	78	154	803	2002	223	245	32	234	316	340	656	106	286	21	8	298	86	-148	+36	-25	+103	+273	24.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	133	19	5	10	54	135	15	17	2	231	313	334	647	103	284	21	8	298	86	-10	+3	-2	+7	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	221	177	47	6	2	1	29	30	12	21	4	266	404	339	743	73	309	14	13	346	123	+6	+3	—	—	+6	1.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alcides Escobarlast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,178 PA	12	6,178	45	178	258	295	345	+66	+92	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	5	19	258	295	345	+7.1	+9.9	2.1	pk7: 17
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,324	86	126	235	313	343	+53	+30	13.9	11.3
	/162	664	11	16	235	313	343	+6.7	+3.7	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Pablo Martinez (OGILVIE)	18	45	20	60	50	230/321/291	61	281	0	21	16%	8%	71	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→30	54→50	47	207/264/281	74	251	3	14	19%	6%	50	-1.8	245/295/318	73	283	3	14	14%	5%	72	-0.2	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Andruw Monasterio 2015 · A	18	46→55	35→45	55	46	215/270/274	59	269	2	16	20%	6%	50	-1.8	204/258/265	61	260	2	11	21%	6%	43	-2.2	246/325/351	106	317	10	23	24%	9%	92	+0.6
✕Carlos Arroyo 2019 · A	18	50	35→30	50	51	231/310/281	51	284	3	13	19%	8%	70	-0.3	221/279/288	67	257	4	15	15%	6%	58	-1.2	184/235/249	65	243	5	19	25%	4%	28	-1.1
✕Dubal Baez 2012 · A	19	46	34→30	52→60	47	210/307/262	52	296	2	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	218/295/268	50	299	1	19	25%	7%	60	-1.0	222/294/257	35	301	0	26	24%	7%	53	-0.4
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	47	-1.9	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	63	-0.8	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Victor Tademo 2017 · A	18	47	37→40	54→55	47	222/279/304	82	268	3	19	18%	6%	62	-0.9	189/236/252	63	280	3	10	32%	5%	30	-3.1	154/194/192	38	243	2	6	36%	4%	-5	-1.6
✕Luis Barahona 2012 · A	18	46	36→30	53→50	48	216/284/286	70	285	3	14	24%	8%	59	-1.1	206/260/268	62	282	2	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	200/252/254	54	273	0	16	25%	6%	33	-1.0
✕Ryan Burrowes 2023 · A	18	44→45	38→40	55→60	45	206/289/290	83	281	5	13	27%	8%	63	-0.8	190/255/255	65	322	4	20	39%	6%	40	-2.4	197/270/275	78	320	7	32	37%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	63	-0.8	208/298/281	73	293	3	17	27%	10%	65	-0.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Jose Monserrate 2023 · A	18	47	38→40	51→50	46	221/290/309	87	287	5	13	23%	7%	68	-0.5	215/293/282	67	300	3	21	27%	9%	63	-0.9	180/265/225	45	288	1	34	34%	9%	34	-0.6
✕Luis Arcendo 2018 · A	18	44	36→30	54→50	46	209/274/278	69	274	3	13	24%	7%	53	-1.5	196/257/259	63	280	3	13	29%	7%	40	-2.4	115/183/136	21	170	0	19	30%	8%	-22	-1.3
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Jesus Castillo 2022 · A	19	41→44	34→30	51→55	42	194/257/244	49	275	2	16	28%	6%	37	-2.6	213/312/258	45	291	1	19	24%	11%	66	-0.6	202/327/232	30	283	1	24	24%	14%	65	-0.3
✕Delvin Pérez 2017 · A	18	46	36→30	56→55	41	214/259/285	71	281	2	13	24%	5%	47	-1.9	201/256/261	60	277	2	11	26%	6%	40	-2.4	204/251/250	46	293	2	18	30%	4%	31	-1.8
✕Marvin Alcantara 2023 · A	18	47→45	37→30	52→50	49	218/293/289	71	281	4	13	22%	8%	64	-0.8	197/251/251	54	288	4	11	31%	6%	36	-2.7	204/244/263	60	277	5	12	27%	5%	33	-2.0
✕Yhostin Chirinos 2019 · A	18	43	38→40	54→50	47	202/276/290	88	258	3	12	22%	7%	58	-1.2	201/265/272	71	280	4	8	28%	7%	48	-1.9	194/244/237	43	249	5	4	23%	6%	27	-1.0
✕Abiatal Avelino 2013 · A	18	48→54	36→45	54→55	46	225/292/289	64	281	3	16	20%	6%	63	-0.8	228/280/305	77	284	4	23	20%	6%	62	-0.9	246/285/354	108	302	10	19	21%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Jefferson Rojas 2023 · A	18	48→40	38→45	56→55	45	226/283/308	82	272	4	16	18%	5%	64	-0.8	211/271/311	100	265	9	15	23%	6%	61	-1.0	208/271/326	118	246	13	18	21%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3