Luis Abreu — OGILVIE

Luis AbreuSS DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 S/R 5'9" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+59

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .280 / .268

PA8

HR0

K%29

BB%9

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	79	-3	+2	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	101	14	1	1	0	13	42	4	14	2	139	263	168	431	30	208	35	11	197	19	-11	+2	—	—	+3	-0.7
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	101	14	1	1	0	13	42	4	14	2	139	263	168	431	30	233	35	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	101	14	1	1	0	13	42	4	14	2	139	263	168	431	30	208	35	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	101	14	1	1	0	13	42	4	14	2	139	263	168	431	30	208	35	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		289	25	12	256	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	192	170	35	5	1	2	17	55	3	6	1	206	289	282	572	76	291	29	9	268	67	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	331	293	62	9	2	4	29	92	6	11	1	212	296	297	593	85	293	28	9	276	73	-11	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	436	388	85	13	3	7	38	120	7	14	2	219	300	322	622	103	294	28	9	282	77	-12	+2	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	511	452	100	15	4	8	45	139	9	17	2	221	304	325	630	104	295	27	9	286	80	-12	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	561	497	111	17	4	10	49	152	10	19	2	223	306	334	640	111	295	27	9	288	81	-12	+3	+0	+6	+12	0.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	595	528	118	18	4	11	52	161	10	20	2	223	305	335	640	112	296	27	9	290	83	-12	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	614	544	122	18	5	11	54	166	11	20	3	224	307	336	643	112	296	27	9	292	84	-12	+3	+0	+7	+13	1.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	623	552	124	18	5	12	55	168	11	21	3	225	307	341	648	116	296	27	9	293	84	-12	+3	+0	+7	+13	1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	625	553	124	18	5	12	56	169	11	21	3	224	308	340	648	116	296	27	9	293	84	-12	+3	+0	+7	+14	1.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	621	549	122	18	4	12	56	169	11	20	3	222	307	335	642	113	296	27	9	292	84	-12	+3	-1	+7	+13	1.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	611	540	119	18	4	11	56	167	10	20	2	220	305	330	635	109	295	27	9	290	82	-13	+3	-1	+7	+13	0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	601	531	117	17	4	11	55	166	10	19	2	220	305	330	635	109	294	28	9	287	81	-14	+3	-2	+6	+13	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	587	519	112	16	4	10	53	164	10	18	2	216	301	320	621	104	292	28	9	284	78	-15	+3	-3	+6	+13	0.4
2040	32	MLB MLE	—	52%	569	503	107	15	4	9	52	161	9	17	2	213	298	312	610	99	289	28	9	279	75	-17	+3	-4	+6	+12	0.0
2041	33	MLB MLE	—	56%	539	476	99	14	3	8	49	156	9	16	2	208	294	300	594	92	286	29	9	272	71	-19	+2	-4	+6	+12	-0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	66	59	13	2	1	1	6	19	1	2	0	220	303	339	642	119	291	29	9	268	67	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	160	142	31	5	1	2	14	45	3	5	1	218	302	310	612	92	293	28	9	276	73	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	236	209	46	7	2	4	21	65	4	8	1	220	303	330	634	110	294	28	9	282	77	-6	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	289	257	57	9	2	5	25	79	5	10	1	222	303	331	634	109	295	27	9	286	80	-7	+2	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	323	286	64	10	2	6	28	87	6	11	1	224	306	336	642	112	295	27	9	288	81	-7	+2	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	339	300	66	10	2	6	30	92	6	11	1	220	304	327	630	107	296	27	9	290	83	-7	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	348	308	69	10	3	6	31	94	6	12	1	224	307	334	642	110	296	27	9	292	84	-7	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	353	313	70	10	3	7	31	95	6	12	1	224	306	342	648	118	296	27	9	293	84	-7	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	347	307	69	10	3	7	31	94	6	11	1	225	308	345	653	121	296	27	9	293	84	-7	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	341	301	66	10	2	6	31	93	6	11	1	219	305	326	630	106	296	27	9	292	84	-7	+2	-0	+4	+7	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	327	288	63	9	2	6	30	90	6	11	1	219	306	326	632	108	295	28	9	290	82	-7	+2	-1	+4	+7	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	316	279	61	9	2	6	29	87	5	10	1	219	304	330	633	111	294	28	9	287	81	-7	+2	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	306	270	59	9	2	5	28	86	5	10	1	219	304	322	626	104	292	28	9	284	78	-8	+2	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2040	32	MLB CTX	—	52%	295	261	56	8	2	5	27	84	5	9	1	215	300	318	618	103	289	28	9	279	75	-9	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.0
2041	33	MLB CTX	—	56%	302	267	55	8	2	4	27	87	5	9	1	206	291	296	587	90	286	29	9	272	71	-11	+1	-2	+3	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4348	3847	845	126	31	76	389	1197	75	142	14	220	304	328	631	108	296	28	9	286	79	-104	+23	-8	+47	+94	5.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	126	19	5	11	58	179	11	21	2	219	303	327	630	108	296	28	9	286	79	-15	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	8143	7203	1572	230	57	138	730	2249	141	273	34	218	303	323	626	105	295	28	9	285	79	-193	+39	-15	+86	+174	9.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	126	18	5	11	58	180	11	22	3	219	302	325	628	106	297	28	9	285	79	-16	+3	-1	+7	+14	0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Leonys Martinlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,784 PA	4.2	2,784	58	126	243	301	366	+10	+53	10.7	10.8
/162	664	14	30	+2.4	+12.6	2.5	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.7	4,449	75	144	220	300	326	+48	+27	8.1	6.9
/162	664	11	21	+7.1	+4.0	1.2	pk7: 6
#6Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	3.1	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
/162	664	4	44	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Abreu (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	200/280/268	68	289	1	3	29%	9%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Óscar Mercado 2014 · A	19	38→48	37→50	52→60	40	182/239/254	73	261	3	13	30%	6%	40	-3.1	192/242/258	66	239	4	23	20%	5%	41	-3.0	235/299/388	153	272	15	22	19%	7%	91	+0.5
✕Chuck Taylor 2013 · A	19	41→51	34→40	49→50	38	191/243/245	54	293	2	14	34%	6%	38	-3.2	221/284/289	68	302	3	8	26%	7%	65	-1.2	243/306/328	85	302	5	4	20%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Robinson Medrano 2014 · A	18	40	36→45	50→45	35	192/232/256	64	290	4	10	34%	4%	36	-3.3	205/261/286	81	281	5	7	27%	6%	55	-1.9	200/259/285	85	267	6	5	26%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Leuri Mejia 2019 · A	18	33	36→40	56→50	40	143/245/215	71	308	3	15	48%	10%	36	-3.4	183/253/254	71	394	4	14	50%	7%	46	-2.6	156/218/207	51	392	3	23	56%	6%	19	-1.0
✕Robert Perez Jr. 2018 · A	18	36→46	38→55	47→45	35	181/226/259	78	272	6	7	35%	4%	36	-3.4	194/255/302	108	307	11	5	38%	6%	57	-1.8	216/294/379	163	305	22	2	35%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2017 · A	20	40→45	35→50	51→55	37	182/242/243	61	309	2	18	39%	7%	38	-3.2	202/266/323	121	294	10	18	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Markus Brisker 2010 · A	19	39→36	35→40	52→55	38	184/234/234	51	283	3	22	34%	6%	33	-3.6	182/252/254	72	294	5	18	37%	8%	45	-2.7	161/246/235	74	266	5	23	38%	8%	37	-1.6
✕Alexander Simon 2012 · A	19	42→52	35→40	49→50	42	199/252/261	62	281	1	12	28%	6%	45	-2.7	223/270/305	82	321	4	11	30%	6%	62	-1.4	235/275/316	81	341	4	10	31%	5%	64	-0.7
✕Ignacio Valdez 2014 · A	19	38	36→45	49→50	39	180/242/249	69	280	3	11	35%	7%	40	-3.1	173/238/275	102	269	8	7	37%	7%	45	-2.7	141/208/262	122	210	12	5	38%	6%	30	-1.2
✕Juan Kelly 2013 · A	19	38→48	35→45	47→45	45	182/245/240	58	244	2	6	25%	7%	39	-3.1	201/274/271	70	258	4	8	22%	9%	57	-1.8	214/276/340	126	294	11	3	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2010 · A	19	34	39→45	50→45	42	170/223/263	92	223	6	6	26%	6%	36	-3.4	208/253/303	95	284	8	7	28%	5%	56	-1.9	221/269/347	125	311	14	7	32%	5%	71	-0.3
●Gregory Polanco 2011 · A	19	38→48	36→60	55	40	183/232/249	66	254	4	16	29%	5%	35	-3.4	223/276/336	113	275	10	22	22%	6%	72	-0.7	255/327/463	208	285	24	14	19%	9%	115	+2.0
✕Shalin Polanco 2022 · A	18	35→23	38→45	50	38	172/226/251	79	269	6	9	37%	6%	34	-3.5	184/243/292	108	295	11	12	39%	6%	51	-2.3	163/229/279	116	266	13	13	42%	7%	41	-1.5
✕Felix G. Santana 2013 · A	18	38	36→40	43→50	36	182/241/247	66	294	4	7	38%	6%	40	-3.1	206/265/279	73	285	4	8	28%	5%	55	-1.9	215/272/289	74	281	4	8	24%	4%	58	-0.5
✕Mike McDade 2008 · A	19	40→50	36→50	48→30	40	192/241/259	67	266	4	4	28%	6%	41	-3.0	198/239/301	103	294	10	2	35%	4%	50	-2.3	237/278/370	133	310	16	1	28%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Conner Capel 2017 · A	20	40→45	36→45	52→55	44	190/237/258	67	240	2	13	21%	5%	39	-3.1	205/259/328	123	274	12	11	28%	6%	64	-1.3	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Alfredo Morales 2011 · A	18	39	37→40	48→45	32	181/227/264	83	319	3	8	42%	5%	37	-3.3	203/261/282	79	337	5	7	38%	7%	55	-2.0	202/269/273	70	329	5	6	37%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Mario Gonzalez 2010 · A	18	42	34→40	46→40	41	197/238/251	54	258	2	7	24%	5%	38	-3.2	203/281/267	64	256	3	5	20%	9%	59	-1.6	192/291/251	59	236	4	3	18%	10%	61	-0.5
✕Steven Fana 2018 · A	19	39	35→50	48→50	35	185/233/246	61	291	2	9	35%	5%	35	-3.4	197/250/306	109	270	10	12	30%	5%	57	-1.8	176/229/312	136	219	15	18	27%	4%	49	-1.0
✕Angel Molina 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	50→55	40	183/236/266	82	230	7	15	24%	4%	42	-2.9	195/240/284	89	253	7	8	25%	4%	47	-2.6	176/207/266	90	220	8	0	24%	2%	30	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps