Luis Abreu — OGILVIE

Luis AbreuSS DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 S/R 5'9" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+52

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .277 / .266

PA100

HR1

K%30

BB%8

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$32M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	101	14	1	1	0	13	43	4	14	2	139	263	168	431	30	237	36	11	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	—	100	91	18	2	1	1	8	30	1	3	0	198	270	275	545	77	289	30	8	253	52	-5	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	192	171	35	5	1	2	16	55	3	5	1	205	284	281	565	76	291	29	8	266	61	-8	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	331	294	62	9	2	4	28	94	6	9	1	211	293	296	589	85	293	28	8	274	68	-12	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	436	389	85	13	3	7	37	121	7	12	1	219	298	321	619	103	294	28	8	280	73	-13	+2	+0	+5	+12	0.6
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	511	453	100	15	4	8	44	141	9	14	2	221	302	325	627	104	295	28	9	284	76	-14	+2	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	561	498	110	16	4	10	48	154	10	15	2	221	302	329	631	108	296	27	9	286	77	-14	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	595	529	118	18	4	11	51	163	10	16	2	223	303	335	638	112	297	27	9	288	79	-14	+2	+0	+6	+17	1.2
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	614	545	121	18	4	11	53	168	11	17	2	222	304	330	634	108	297	27	9	290	80	-14	+3	+0	+7	+17	1.3
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	623	553	123	18	4	12	54	171	11	17	2	222	304	335	639	112	297	27	9	291	81	-14	+3	+0	+7	+18	1.4
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	625	554	123	18	4	12	55	172	11	17	2	222	305	334	639	112	297	28	9	291	81	-14	+3	+0	+7	+18	1.4
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	621	550	122	18	4	12	55	171	11	16	2	222	305	335	640	113	296	28	9	290	80	-14	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.2
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	611	542	119	18	4	11	54	170	10	15	2	220	302	328	630	109	296	28	9	288	79	-15	+2	-1	+7	+17	1.0
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	601	532	117	17	4	11	54	169	10	13	2	220	304	329	633	109	295	28	9	285	77	-16	+2	-2	+6	+17	0.7
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	66	59	12	2	0	1	6	19	1	2	0	203	288	288	576	85	291	29	9	266	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	160	142	30	4	1	2	14	45	3	4	1	211	296	296	591	85	293	28	9	274	68	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	236	210	46	7	2	4	20	66	4	6	1	219	299	329	628	110	294	28	8	280	73	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	289	257	56	8	2	5	25	80	5	8	1	218	300	323	623	105	295	28	9	284	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.5
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	323	286	63	9	2	6	28	89	6	9	1	220	303	329	632	108	296	28	9	286	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	339	301	66	10	2	6	29	93	6	9	1	219	301	326	626	106	297	27	9	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	348	309	68	10	2	6	30	95	6	9	1	220	301	324	625	104	297	27	9	290	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	353	313	69	10	2	7	31	97	6	10	1	220	303	332	635	112	297	27	9	291	81	-8	+2	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	347	308	68	10	2	7	30	95	6	9	1	221	302	334	637	114	297	27	9	291	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.8
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	341	302	66	10	2	6	30	94	6	9	1	219	302	325	626	106	296	28	9	290	80	-8	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	327	289	63	9	2	6	29	91	6	8	1	218	302	325	628	107	296	28	9	288	79	-8	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.5
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	316	280	61	9	2	6	28	89	5	7	1	218	300	329	629	111	295	28	9	285	77	-8	+1	-1	+3	+9	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3445	3056	668	98	21	62	300	953	60	90	11	219	301	325	626	107	294	28	9	287	78	-87	+14	-2	+37	+98	6.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	126	18	4	12	57	180	11	17	2	218	301	326	627	107	293	28	9	287	78	-17	+3	-0	+7	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	6540	5802	1267	186	44	112	570	1822	114	183	23	218	301	324	624	105	296	28	9	284	76	-180	+27	-4	+70	+185	10.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	125	18	4	11	57	181	11	18	2	217	299	319	618	102	294	28	9	284	76	-18	+3	-0	+7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	76	-3	+2	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,546	61	93	221	299	327	+38	+21	5.8	5.3
	/162	664	11	17	221	299	327	+7.1	+3.9	1.1	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Abreu (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	199/277/266	67	289	1	3	30%	8%	52	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Olvy Marte 2013 · A	18	46	36→40	49→55	44	213/288/277	65	286	3	18	25%	7%	59	-1.1	220/281/292	72	293	2	16	24%	6%	59	-1.1	224/283/295	71	296	1	19	23%	6%	58	-0.4
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→50	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	52	-1.6	193/254/254	61	272	4	9	28%	7%	38	-2.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Chris Garia 2011 · A	18	39→49	35→40	52→60	43	185/248/243	58	253	3	19	27%	6%	33	-2.9	207/267/261	54	286	2	20	26%	7%	46	-2.0	231/270/343	112	308	8	32	27%	4%	63	-0.5
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2011 · A	18	43	35→40	47→65	48	203/275/262	59	265	2	16	23%	8%	50	-1.8	204/271/273	69	256	3	20	20%	7%	50	-1.7	210/296/279	69	262	2	36	19%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	30	-3.1	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	53	-1.5	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	42	-2.3	225/287/323	98	318	6	19	29%	7%	70	-0.3	201/262/323	122	304	12	21	36%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Alejandro Flores 2014 · A	18	41	37→50	48→40	43	196/253/264	68	270	4	7	28%	7%	40	-2.4	190/255/273	83	275	7	6	31%	7%	44	-2.1	199/256/338	139	264	14	3	29%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Steward Berroa 2018 · A	19	43→47	37→45	52→65	41	200/262/273	74	297	3	17	32%	7%	46	-2.0	207/271/277	70	311	3	17	31%	8%	51	-1.7	223/304/322	99	313	9	48	29%	10%	75	+0.0
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→41	38→45	53→55	48	181/263/262	81	241	5	13	26%	8%	46	-2.0	206/287/315	109	272	10	17	26%	9%	69	-0.4	200/284/304	104	268	11	24	28%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Luis Alejandro Basabe 2015 · A	18	39→49	35→40	54→50	50	182/274/245	64	273	2	12	31%	11%	46	-2.0	202/283/281	79	316	5	12	34%	10%	59	-1.1	199/279/285	86	311	6	13	35%	9%	55	-0.6
✕Wilmer Difo 2011 · A	19	39→49	35→45	53→55	43	185/240/246	61	245	2	14	24%	6%	30	-3.1	206/272/279	73	259	3	20	20%	8%	53	-1.5	251/290/357	106	305	8	26	20%	4%	76	+0.1
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Herard Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	40	35→40	52→50	43	191/255/247	56	277	3	20	31%	7%	37	-2.6	205/282/277	72	315	6	11	33%	9%	57	-1.2	191/270/275	83	302	7	10	36%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	25	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	52	-1.6	192/263/269	77	285	7	32	32%	8%	44	-0.7
✕Francis Grullon 2019 · A	18	39	35→45	47→55	45	184/247/246	62	246	2	9	25%	7%	33	-2.9	202/273/292	90	249	7	13	20%	8%	57	-1.2	192/274/289	97	228	9	18	19%	9%	56	-0.4
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Leandro Arias 2023 · A	18	40	38→30	51→45	43	188/262/268	80	284	4	11	33%	8%	46	-2.0	199/267/280	81	262	6	10	25%	7%	51	-1.7	199/277/263	64	267	6	7	25%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Chace Numata 2011 · A	18	44	36→40	47→40	43	205/271/275	70	308	4	7	32%	8%	51	-1.7	210/271/287	77	275	5	7	24%	7%	54	-1.4	250/301/324	74	297	3	2	16%	6%	73	-0.1