Luis Abreu

SS DSL Cubs Red

Age 19 S/R 5'9" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1616ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Cubs Red	119	.174/.356/.207	0	14	22	—	.131/.271/.162
2027PROJMLE	19	MLB—	229	.202/.288/.267	1	7	61	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLB—	25	.207/.293/.281	0	1	66	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	21	MLB—	84	.211/.296/.293	1	3	70	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Speed84

BB%82

Chase%74

K%39

Whiff%30

wOBA25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj PA

wRC+61

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .285 / .265

PA40

HR0

K%29

BB%9

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	99	13	1	1	0	15	35	4	14	2	131	271	162	433	30	177	29	13	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	99	13	1	1	0	15	35	4	14	2	131	271	162	433	30	200	29	13	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	92	16	1	1	0	22	28	4	14	2	174	356	207	562	33	246	24	18	285	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	99	13	1	1	0	15	35	4	14	2	131	271	162	433	30	177	29	13	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	119	99	13	1	1	0	15	35	4	14	2	131	271	162	433	30	177	29	13	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	229	203	40	5	2	1	21	65	3	7	1	202	288	267	554	65	288	28	9	258	61	-11	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	75	67	15	2	1	1	7	21	1	2	0	207	293	281	573	74	290	28	9	266	66	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	50%	169	149	31	4	1	2	15	47	3	6	1	211	296	293	590	82	291	28	9	272	70	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	58%	279	247	52	7	2	3	26	76	4	9	1	214	299	304	603	90	292	27	9	277	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	61%	376	333	72	10	3	5	34	102	6	12	2	217	302	314	616	96	293	27	9	282	77	-10	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	63%	439	389	85	12	3	7	40	118	7	15	2	220	304	322	626	102	294	27	9	286	80	-11	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	65%	475	422	93	13	4	8	43	127	7	16	3	221	304	325	629	104	294	27	9	287	80	-11	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	65%	496	440	97	14	4	8	45	133	8	16	3	221	305	326	631	105	294	27	9	288	81	-11	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	65%	504	445	98	14	4	8	46	136	8	16	3	220	304	324	627	104	293	27	9	286	80	-12	+2	+0	+5	+11	0.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	65%	504	446	98	14	4	8	46	137	7	16	3	218	302	319	621	101	293	27	9	284	78	-13	+2	-1	+5	+11	0.5
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	65%	494	439	95	14	4	7	45	135	7	15	3	216	299	313	612	97	291	27	9	280	76	-14	+2	-1	+5	+11	0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	207	293	281	573	74	290	28	8	266	66	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	50%	84	75	16	2	1	1	8	23	1	3	0	211	296	293	590	82	291	27	10	272	70	-3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	58%	161	142	30	4	1	2	15	44	3	5	1	214	299	304	603	90	292	27	9	277	74	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	61%	231	204	44	6	2	3	21	62	4	8	1	217	302	314	616	96	293	27	9	282	77	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	63%	277	246	54	8	2	4	25	74	4	9	1	220	304	322	626	102	294	27	9	286	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	65%	309	273	60	9	2	5	28	83	5	10	2	221	304	325	629	104	294	27	9	287	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	65%	322	285	62	9	2	5	29	86	5	11	2	221	305	326	631	105	294	27	9	288	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	65%	328	290	63	9	2	5	30	88	5	11	2	220	304	324	627	104	293	27	9	286	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	65%	328	290	63	9	2	5	30	89	5	10	2	218	302	319	621	101	293	27	9	284	78	-9	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.3
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	65%	321	284	62	9	2	5	29	88	5	10	2	216	299	313	612	97	291	27	9	280	76	-9	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2386	2112	459	66	16	35	217	644	37	78	13	217	301	313	615	96	293	27	9	284	76	-62	+10	-1	+26	+52	2.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	125	18	4	10	59	175	10	21	4	217	301	315	616	97	292	27	9	284	76	-17	+3	-0	+7	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3970	3511	756	106	31	57	366	1078	63	138	23	215	301	312	613	97	292	27	9	280	76	-103	+16	-2	+41	+83	3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	123	17	5	9	60	176	10	23	4	214	299	308	607	94	290	27	9	280	76	-17	+3	-0	+7	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 119 PAwOBA .281 → .200 (−82)K% 23.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	29.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.49%	÷1.036	×0.700	—	×1.022	12.77%
HBP% /PA	3.36%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	2.41%
Singles /BIP	21.88%	÷0.981	×0.680	×1.040	×1.022	16.12%
Doubles /BIP	1.56%	÷1.012	×0.600	×1.040	×1.022	0.98%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.040	×1.022	0.87%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.876	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .281 → .200; ISO .033 → .019; BABIP .246 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
	/162	664	8	16	227*	307*	330*	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
	/162	664	10	19	228	318	337	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#4Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
	/162	664	8	35	232*	309*	342*	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
#6Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	/162	664	9	30	238*	292*	339*	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.7	2,426	37	79	219	300	319	+26	+21	4.1	3.9
	/162	664	10	22	219	300	319	+7.1	+5.7	1.1	pk7: 4

Luis Abreu

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps