Player 829517 P FCL Orioles
Age — —HP ROK peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINST108
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
K%23.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
K: +0.8 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: +0.6 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: +2.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+3CONTACTSTAM: +1.9 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: +0.63 (47 IP)+0.6WAR
0.10.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career (MLE) + Projections

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
2026—ROKFCL Orioles6228102257033%4.616.7%8.6%8.1%0.0%1.632.78+0.6
ROS—MLBBAL180198219820%1.123.3%9.2%14.1%3.0%4.314.31+0.1
2026 Total—MLBBAL——4718444152——24.0%7.9%16.1%1.3%2.733.41+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBBAL190208420830%1.123.7%8.9%14.8%3.0%4.274.24+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career—6228102179033%4.616.7%8.6%8.1%0.0%1.632.78+0.6
/ 200 IP—431420073712365033%4.616.7%8.6%8.1%0.0%1.632.78+6.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Player 829517 (OGILVIE) —— 4.31 23.3%9.2%3.0%— — ——— — ———
Brett Gillis R 2026 · 3.37 FIP 25 SP- 3.37 20.3%8.8%1.6%.278 5.10 15.8%6.7%73 +1.73 3.37 119 79
Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP 25 SP- 4.76 20.8%10.1%3.9%.380 4.51 19.3%7.9%101 -0.25 4.50 119 78
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 — ——— — 4.42 102 71
Connor Schultz R 2026 · 4.05 FIP 25 SU 4.05 19.7%5.3%3.5%.283 3.86 19.3%11.7%124 -0.19 3.47 171 71
Tristan Stevens R 2026 · 4.28 FIP 25 SW 4.28 17.3%8.2%2.9%.411 3.71 15.0%7.7%91 -0.57 3.71 126 71
Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 25.7%12.4%4.2%.296 3.43 18.7%10.3%40 -1.37 2.78 181 70
Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SP- 3.47 20.3%11.4%1.2%.286 3.51 23.2%10.9%71 +0.04 2.45 138 70
Michael King R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SW 4.55 21.5%9.1%3.8%.316 2.73 28.3%20.8%219 -1.82 1.96 948 69
Noah Gotsis R 2026 · 3.38 FIP 25 SP- 3.38 16.5%6.5%1.5%.296 4.26 15.9%8.6%90 +0.88 3.38 138 69
Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 4.06 FIP 25 SW 4.06 18.9%9.0%2.6%.311 4.48 17.3%3.8%141 +0.42 3.63 281 69
Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.81 FIP 25 SP- 3.81 19.2%5.7%2.9%.311 6.73 17.6%-0.7%51 +2.92 3.81 106 69
Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 25 SW 3.89 19.0%7.3%2.7%.331 5.46 20.8%10.6%47 +1.57 3.89 141 68
Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP- 4.80 20.8%12.2%3.5%.450 4.58 17.9%4.8%170 -0.22 3.80 187 68
Darien Smith R 2026 · 3.47 FIP 25 SU 3.47 17.6%8.5%1.4%.253 4.67 19.0%6.1%32 +1.20 3.47 102 68
Noah Bremer R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 25 SW 4.24 18.0%9.4%2.7%.292 5.88 13.1%1.2%46 +1.64 3.14 271 68
Chase Dollander R 2025 · 3.95 FIP 24 SW 3.95 24.9%9.5%3.2%.280 — ——— — 3.07 275 67
Steven Bruce R 2026 · 3.70 FIP 25 SW 3.70 14.9%5.0%2.2%.300 3.62 15.0%9.8%94 -0.08 3.62 148 67
Jake Lyons R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 24 SW 4.31 20.1%8.5%3.4%.337 — ——— — 4.31 174 67
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP 25 SW 4.41 21.0%9.6%3.4%.273 4.29 23.1%14.9%172 -0.12 3.36 432 66
Alex Amalfi R 2026 · 5.23 FIP 25 SW 5.23 21.6%9.9%4.9%.299 — ——— — 2.66 264 66