José Peña — OGILVIE

José PeñaSS DSL Orioles Black

Age 17 R/R 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .272 / .283

PA175

HR2

K%27

BB%8

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$31M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	16	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	177	30	7	0	2	20	65	3	14	6	169	265	243	508	73	243	32	10	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	167	40	11	0	2	30	42	3	14	6	240	365	341	706	102	297	20	15	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	17	MLB	BAL	—	175	157	32	6	1	2	14	48	2	4	1	204	277	293	570	89	273	27	8	257	55	-9	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	18	MLB	BAL	34%	260	235	47	9	1	3	21	70	2	5	1	200	271	285	556	85	276	27	8	265	61	-11	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2028	19	MLB	BAL	48%	388	349	74	14	2	6	32	102	4	8	2	212	286	315	601	103	279	26	8	274	68	-14	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.2
2029	20	MLB	BAL	54%	486	436	95	18	3	8	41	125	6	10	2	218	294	328	622	110	282	26	8	281	73	-15	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2030	21	MLB	BAL	57%	561	502	110	21	3	10	47	143	7	12	3	219	295	333	628	114	283	25	8	285	76	-15	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.8
2031	22	MLB	BAL	58%	596	533	117	22	3	11	50	151	8	13	3	220	296	334	630	114	284	25	8	287	78	-15	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.0
2032	23	MLB	BAL	58%	615	550	122	23	3	12	52	156	8	13	3	222	298	340	638	118	284	25	8	289	79	-14	+1	+0	+7	+17	1.1
2033	24	MLB	BAL	57%	626	559	124	23	3	12	53	158	9	14	3	222	300	338	638	116	285	25	8	290	80	-14	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.2
2034	25	MLB	BAL	61%	634	566	126	24	3	12	54	160	9	14	3	223	300	339	640	117	285	25	9	291	81	-14	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2035	26	MLB	BAL	63%	639	570	127	24	3	13	55	161	9	14	3	223	301	344	645	121	285	25	9	291	81	-14	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2036	27	MLB	BAL	64%	637	568	127	24	3	13	55	161	9	14	3	224	302	345	647	121	285	25	9	291	81	-14	+2	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2037	28	MLB	BAL	65%	631	562	124	23	3	12	55	160	9	13	3	221	300	336	637	116	285	25	9	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.2
2038	29	MLB	BAL	65%	621	553	122	23	3	12	55	159	8	13	3	221	300	338	638	118	284	26	9	289	79	-15	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.0
2039	30	MLB	BAL	65%	609	542	118	22	3	11	54	157	8	12	3	218	298	330	628	113	283	26	9	286	77	-16	+1	-2	+7	+17	0.7
2027	18	MLB	BAL	34%	89	81	16	3	0	1	7	24	1	2	0	198	270	272	541	74	280	27	8	261	58	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	19	MLB	BAL	48%	188	168	36	7	1	3	16	49	2	4	1	214	290	321	612	107	283	26	9	269	64	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2029	20	MLB	BAL	54%	264	237	52	10	1	5	22	68	3	6	1	219	294	333	627	114	286	26	8	275	69	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2030	21	MLB	BAL	57%	318	284	64	12	2	6	27	81	4	7	1	225	302	345	647	120	287	25	8	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2031	22	MLB	BAL	58%	343	306	69	13	2	7	29	87	5	7	2	225	303	350	653	124	288	25	8	281	73	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2032	23	MLB	BAL	58%	357	319	72	14	2	7	30	90	5	8	2	226	302	348	650	122	289	25	8	283	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2033	24	MLB	BAL	57%	358	319	73	14	2	7	31	90	5	8	2	229	307	351	658	122	289	25	9	284	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2034	25	MLB	BAL	61%	385	344	78	15	2	8	33	97	5	8	2	227	304	352	655	125	289	25	9	285	76	-10	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.6
2035	26	MLB	BAL	63%	400	357	80	15	2	8	34	101	6	9	2	224	302	345	647	120	289	25	8	285	76	-11	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.6
2036	27	MLB	BAL	64%	405	361	81	15	2	8	35	102	6	9	2	224	303	343	647	119	289	25	9	285	77	-11	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.6
2037	28	MLB	BAL	65%	410	365	82	16	2	8	36	104	6	9	2	225	305	345	650	121	289	25	9	284	76	-11	+1	-0	+4	+12	0.5
2038	29	MLB	BAL	65%	404	360	80	15	2	8	36	103	5	8	2	222	302	342	643	119	288	25	9	283	75	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.4
2039	30	MLB	BAL	65%	396	353	79	15	2	8	35	102	5	8	2	224	303	346	648	122	287	26	9	280	73	-12	+1	-1	+4	+11	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4317	3854	862	164	22	84	371	1098	58	93	21	224	301	343	644	119	289	25	9	282	74	-128	+10	-3	+46	+122	4.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	130	25	3	13	56	165	9	14	3	224	302	345	647	121	289	25	9	282	74	-19	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	7684	6859	1495	283	37	139	658	1976	101	173	42	218	296	331	627	113	283	26	9	285	76	-208	+18	-4	+82	+218	10.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	127	24	3	12	56	167	9	15	4	219	298	333	630	114	285	26	9	285	76	-18	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	16	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	167	40	11	0	2	30	42	3	14	6	240	365	341	706	102	297	20	15	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,491	83	96	221	295	336	+48	+24	6.9	6.0
	/162	664	12	14	221	295	336	+7.1	+3.5	1.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Peña (OGILVIE)	17	35	25	55	55	199/272/283	84	273	2	4	27%	8%	55	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Astudillo 2022 · A	18	43	37→30	52→50	46	204/257/278	73	249	3	9	19%	6%	46	-2.0	230/283/304	74	270	3	15	15%	6%	63	-0.9	293/336/390	97	320	8	19	10%	4%	104	+0.6
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	41	195/262/260	64	278	3	10	29%	6%	44	-2.1	202/257/256	54	271	2	8	25%	5%	40	-2.4	184/237/220	36	252	1	8	26%	5%	21	-0.9
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	47	-1.9	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	63	-0.8	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Julio Izturis 2007 · A	17	43	35→30	48→60	46	200/278/258	58	271	2	14	25%	7%	50	-1.7	214/300/262	48	265	2	24	18%	8%	61	-1.0	217/310/253	36	266	2	31	17%	9%	61	-0.3
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Samuel Gil 2023 · A	18	42	39→30	52→50	45	203/268/289	86	274	5	9	27%	7%	54	-1.4	207/283/272	65	284	4	8	26%	9%	56	-1.3	198/287/247	50	267	2	9	24%	10%	48	-1.0
✕Luis Palacios 2007 · A	18	43	37→40	50	47	203/279/272	70	286	4	13	29%	8%	54	-1.4	204/261/283	79	271	5	7	25%	6%	49	-1.8	192/241/268	76	252	6	4	25%	5%	35	-0.9
✕Manuel Falcon 2008 · A	18	43	35→30	49→50	41	200/260/254	54	286	2	8	29%	6%	41	-2.3	227/283/274	47	287	1	10	20%	6%	56	-1.3	240/298/272	32	295	0	11	17%	6%	60	-0.4
✕Dubal Baez 2011 · A	18	46	36→30	50→60	46	214/289/282	68	300	4	7	28%	8%	61	-1.0	214/302/264	50	297	2	18	26%	8%	63	-0.8	217/309/247	30	304	0	28	25%	8%	58	-0.3
✕Ronald Luna 2010 · A	17	40	35→30	50→45	40	189/237/248	59	258	2	6	27%	5%	29	-3.2	221/258/265	44	274	2	9	19%	4%	41	-2.3	233/263/261	28	284	1	11	17%	3%	40	-0.8
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	69	-0.4	221/287/267	45	270	0	22	16%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2009 · A	17	38→48	38→40	47→60	43	186/234/266	80	229	6	9	21%	5%	33	-2.9	207/247/269	62	247	2	12	16%	4%	38	-2.6	253/304/323	70	285	3	13	12%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Ronaldo Urdaneta 2017 · A	18	37	35→40	51→60	40	176/238/231	55	271	2	17	34%	7%	25	-3.5	204/268/282	78	293	5	21	30%	8%	52	-1.6	192/263/269	77	285	7	32	32%	8%	44	-0.7
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Rafael P Valera 2013 · A	18	43	35→30	48→55	46	201/273/256	55	281	2	11	27%	8%	47	-1.9	206/289/259	53	271	1	14	22%	9%	56	-1.3	212/285/276	64	296	0	7	26%	8%	54	-0.4
✕Kelvin Fajardo 2014 · A	18	44	35→30	46→50	48	204/261/260	56	246	3	6	18%	7%	43	-2.2	222/278/270	48	270	1	6	17%	6%	52	-1.6	224/280/257	33	266	0	6	15%	6%	49	-0.7