José Peña — OGILVIE

José PeñaSS DSL Orioles Black

Age 17 R/R 6'2" / 150 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .272 / .282

PA14

HR0

K%27

BB%8

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$6M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	16	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	167	40	11	0	2	30	42	3	14	6	240	365	341	706	102	297	20	15	320	102	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	178	31	7	0	2	19	62	3	14	6	174	265	247	512	73	233	30	9	233	44	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-0.9
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	178	31	7	0	2	19	62	3	14	6	174	265	247	512	73	244	30	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	167	40	11	0	2	30	42	3	14	6	240	365	341	706	102	297	20	15	320	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	182	31	7	0	2	19	62	3	14	6	170	265	242	507	71	233	30	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	16	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	206	182	31	7	0	2	19	62	3	14	6	170	265	242	507	71	233	30	9	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	17	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	14	13	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	154	214	154	368		273	29	7	256	60	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	18	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	260	235	48	9	1	3	21	69	2	5	1	204	275	289	565	85	276	27	8	265	65	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2028	19	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	388	349	74	14	2	6	32	100	4	8	2	212	286	315	601	103	279	26	8	274	72	-13	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.0
2029	20	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	486	436	95	18	3	8	41	124	6	10	2	218	294	328	622	110	281	26	8	281	76	-14	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2030	21	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	561	502	110	21	3	10	47	141	7	12	3	219	295	333	628	114	282	25	8	285	79	-14	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2031	22	MLB MLE	BAL	58%	596	533	117	22	3	11	50	149	8	13	3	220	296	334	630	114	283	25	8	287	81	-14	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.7
2032	23	MLB MLE	BAL	58%	615	550	122	23	3	12	52	153	8	13	3	222	298	340	638	118	284	25	8	289	82	-13	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.8
2033	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	626	560	125	24	3	12	53	156	8	14	3	223	300	341	641	118	285	25	8	291	83	-13	+2	+0	+7	+14	0.9
2034	25	MLB MLE	BAL	61%	634	566	126	24	3	12	54	157	9	14	3	223	300	339	640	117	285	25	9	291	83	-13	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	BAL	63%	639	570	127	24	3	12	55	159	9	14	3	223	301	339	640	116	285	25	9	292	83	-13	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	BAL	64%	637	568	126	24	3	12	55	159	9	14	3	222	301	338	639	116	285	25	9	292	84	-12	+2	+0	+7	+14	1.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	631	562	125	24	3	12	55	158	9	13	3	222	302	340	642	117	284	25	9	291	83	-13	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.9
2038	29	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	621	553	122	23	3	12	55	157	8	13	3	221	300	338	638	118	284	25	9	289	82	-13	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.7
2039	30	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	609	542	118	22	3	11	54	155	8	12	3	218	298	330	628	113	283	25	9	287	80	-14	+1	-2	+7	+13	0.4
2040	31	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	595	530	114	21	3	10	52	153	8	12	3	215	295	323	618	108	281	26	9	283	77	-16	+1	-3	+6	+13	0.2
2041	32	MLB MLE	BAL	65%	576	512	109	20	3	9	51	151	8	11	2	213	294	316	611	104	278	26	9	277	74	-18	+1	-4	+6	+12	-0.1
2027	18	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	89	81	16	3	0	1	7	23	1	2	0	198	270	272	541	74	280	26	8	261	65	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	19	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	188	168	37	7	1	3	16	49	2	4	1	220	296	327	623	107	283	26	9	270	72	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	20	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	264	237	52	10	1	5	22	67	3	6	1	219	294	333	627	114	285	25	8	276	76	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2030	21	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	318	284	64	12	2	6	27	80	4	7	1	225	302	345	647	120	287	25	8	279	79	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2031	22	MLB CTX	BAL	58%	343	306	69	13	2	7	29	86	5	7	2	225	303	350	653	124	288	25	8	282	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2032	23	MLB CTX	BAL	58%	357	319	72	14	2	7	30	89	5	8	2	226	302	348	650	122	288	25	8	284	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2033	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	358	319	73	14	2	7	31	89	5	8	2	229	307	351	658	122	289	25	9	285	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2034	25	MLB CTX	BAL	61%	385	344	78	15	2	8	33	96	5	8	2	227	304	352	655	125	289	25	9	286	83	-8	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2035	26	MLB CTX	BAL	63%	400	358	81	16	2	8	34	99	5	9	2	226	302	349	651	123	289	25	8	286	83	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2036	27	MLB CTX	BAL	64%	405	361	82	16	2	8	35	101	6	9	2	227	306	349	655	122	289	25	9	286	84	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2037	28	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	410	365	82	16	2	8	36	103	6	9	2	225	305	345	650	121	289	25	9	285	83	-8	+1	-0	+4	+9	0.6
2038	29	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	404	360	80	15	2	8	36	102	5	8	2	222	302	342	643	119	288	25	9	284	82	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.4
2039	30	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	396	353	79	15	2	8	35	101	5	8	2	224	303	346	648	122	287	26	9	281	80	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.3
2040	31	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	387	345	75	14	2	7	34	100	5	8	2	217	297	330	627	113	285	26	9	277	77	-10	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.1
2041	32	MLB CTX	BAL	65%	374	333	71	13	2	6	33	98	5	7	2	213	294	318	612	105	282	26	9	272	74	-12	+1	-2	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5078	4533	1011	193	26	97	438	1283	67	108	25	223	301	341	642	118	288	25	9	281	79	-120	+12	-7	+54	+110	5.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	129	25	3	12	56	164	9	14	3	222	301	338	639	116	287	25	9	281	79	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8694	7759	1691	320	42	154	747	2207	114	192	46	218	296	330	626	112	282	25	9	285	79	-204	+20	-10	+91	+184	8.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	127	24	3	12	56	165	9	14	3	219	298	333	630	114	283	25	9	285	79	-16	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.9	5,252	94	111	220	295	334	+56	+30	8.3	7.0
/162	664	12	14	+7.1	+3.8	1.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
José Peña (OGILVIE)	17	35	25	55	55	200/272/282	82	273	2	4	27%	8%	60	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	43	196/259/277	81	254	5	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	212/289/284	72	268	5	9	21%	9%	66	-1.1	221/317/274	53	274	5	10	19%	11%	72	-0.3
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	68	-1.0	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Marco Soto 2022 · A	18	41	36→30	52→50	42	194/263/258	64	277	3	10	29%	6%	51	-2.3	201/256/257	56	270	2	8	25%	5%	47	-2.5	183/237/221	38	251	1	8	26%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Julio Izturis 2007 · A	17	43	35→30	48→60	46	200/278/258	58	271	2	14	25%	7%	56	-1.9	214/300/262	48	265	2	24	18%	8%	65	-1.2	217/310/253	36	266	2	31	17%	9%	65	-0.4
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Rafael P Valera 2013 · A	18	43	35→30	48→55	46	201/273/256	55	281	2	11	27%	8%	53	-2.1	207/290/260	53	271	1	14	22%	9%	61	-1.5	216/289/281	65	299	0	7	25%	8%	62	-0.4
✕Manuel Falcon 2008 · A	18	43	35→30	49→50	41	200/260/254	54	286	2	8	29%	6%	48	-2.5	227/283/274	47	287	1	10	20%	6%	61	-1.5	240/298/272	32	295	0	11	17%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Luis Palacios 2007 · A	18	43	37→40	50	47	203/279/272	70	286	4	13	29%	8%	59	-1.6	204/261/283	79	271	5	7	25%	6%	55	-2.0	192/241/268	76	252	6	4	25%	5%	42	-1.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→45	39→45	47→55	48	202/296/282	81	254	6	12	22%	8%	70	-0.9	210/296/305	95	253	9	16	20%	9%	74	-0.5	215/297/320	105	260	12	19	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Dubal Baez 2011 · A	18	46	36→30	50→60	46	214/289/282	68	300	4	7	28%	8%	65	-1.2	214/302/264	50	297	2	18	26%	8%	68	-1.0	217/309/247	30	304	0	28	25%	8%	63	-0.4
✕Samuel Gil 2023 · A	18	43→44	38→30	52→50	45	203/269/290	87	274	5	9	26%	7%	59	-1.6	208/284/274	66	286	3	8	26%	9%	61	-1.5	200/288/251	51	271	2	9	24%	10%	56	-1.0
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	54	-2.0	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	73	-0.6	224/288/270	46	274	0	22	17%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Wilfredo Tovar 2009 · A	17	38→48	38→40	47→60	43	186/234/266	80	229	6	9	21%	5%	40	-3.0	207/247/268	61	248	2	12	17%	4%	45	-2.7	250/302/318	68	280	3	13	11%	5%	75	-0.4
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→40	36→45	51→60	46	196/275/269	73	281	3	13	29%	8%	57	-1.8	201/270/288	87	311	7	23	35%	7%	60	-1.6	204/257/327	123	302	13	35	35%	6%	61	-1.1
✕Kelvin Fajardo 2014 · A	18	44	35→30	46→50	48	204/261/260	56	246	3	6	18%	7%	49	-2.4	222/278/270	48	270	1	6	17%	6%	57	-1.8	224/280/257	33	266	0	6	15%	6%	55	-0.7
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Jorge Caballero 2018 · A	18	44	37→40	49→45	47	210/286/284	74	263	4	10	21%	7%	65	-1.2	216/286/282	66	325	3	7	31%	8%	64	-1.3	226/304/293	67	365	5	5	36%	9%	71	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps