Alvaro Matos

IF DSL Mets Blue

Age 21 L/R 5'11" / 180 lbs ROK H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	18	ROKDSL Mets Blue	26	.250/.423/.300	0	7	36	—	.143/.308/.190
2025	19	ROKDSL Mets Blue	88	.205/.341/.329	0	7	23	—	.132/.250/.197
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBNYM	198	.200/.276/.282	1	7	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBNYM	24	.198/.275/.285	0	1	64	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Speed99

ISO65

K%44

wOBA41

wRC+38

Whiff%36

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .274 / .280

PA34

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	18	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	20	5	1	0	0	3	10	3	7	0	250	423	300	723	50	500	38	12	354	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	73	15	3	3	0	9	20	6	7	0	205	341	329	670	123	283	23	10	313	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	21	3	1	0	0	2	13	3	7	0	143	308	190	498	48	325	50	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	76	10	1	2	0	6	25	6	7	0	132	250	197	447	66	185	28	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	21	3	1	0	0	2	13	3	7	0	143	308	190	498	48	375	50	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	20	5	1	0	0	3	10	3	7	0	250	423	300	723	50	500	38	12	354	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	76	10	1	2	0	6	25	6	7	0	132	250	197	447	66	196	28	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	73	15	3	3	0	9	20	6	7	0	205	341	329	670	123	283	23	10	313	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	21	3	1	0	0	2	13	3	7	0	143	308	190	498	48	325	50	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	76	10	1	2	0	6	25	6	7	0	132	250	197	447	66	185	28	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	26	21	3	1	0	0	2	13	3	7	0	143	308	190	498	48	325	50	8	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	—	88	76	10	1	2	0	6	25	6	7	0	132	250	197	447	66	185	28	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	198	178	36	6	3	1	13	59	5	7	1	200	276	282	559	82	289	30	7	257	60	-9	+1	+0	+0	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	34%	71	64	13	2	1	1	5	21	2	3	0	204	280	294	575	90	290	30	7	263	64	-3	+1	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	34%	24	21	4	1	0	0	2	7	1	1	0	198	275	285	560	87	281	29	8	257	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	24	21	4	1	0	0	2	7	1	1	0	190	292	238	530	48	286	29	8	257	44	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	569	108	27	0	0	54	190	27	27	0	190	291	237	528	47	285	29	8	257	44	-28	+5	+0	+0	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	219	192	31	5	3	1	15	69	12	18	0	161	265	234	499	73	246	32	7	233	44	-5	+1	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	92	15	9	3	45	205	36	53	0	161	266	235	501	74	246	32	7	233	44	-29	+5	+0	+0	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 88 PAwOBA .306 → .202 (−104)K% 22.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.73%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	27.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.23%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×0.995	7.04%
HBP% /PA	6.82%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.75%
Singles /BIP	16.98%	÷0.984	×0.680	×1.050	×0.995	12.26%
Doubles /BIP	5.66%	÷1.301	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	2.73%
Triples /BIP	5.66%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×0.995	3.55%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.085	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 97, 2B 160, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .306 → .202; ISO .123 → .071; BABIP .283 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Mets Blue · 26 PAwOBA .346 → .221 (−125)K% 38.5% → 48.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.46%	÷0.964	×1.220	—	—	48.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷1.067	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.62%
HBP% /PA	11.54%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.14%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷1.035	×0.680	—	×1.008	26.47%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.001	×0.600	—	×1.008	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.967	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .346 → .221; ISO .050 → .028; BABIP .500 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).