Jack Mathey — OGILVIE

Jack MatheyC ACL Padres

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR +13%BB +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.9 · 2030

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .263 / .284

PA47

HR1

K%32

BB%7

MLB%0%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.9peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$4M	-$0.2M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	ROK	ACL Padres	35	28	3	1	0	0	6	14	1	0	0	.107	.286	.143	.429	.036	.214	40	17	.210	19	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	SD	47	44	8	1	0	1	3	15	0	1	0	.182	.234	.273	.507	.091	.291	32	6	.252	51	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 8%	SD	121	110	23	4	1	2	9	37	1	2	0	.209	.275	.318	.593	.109	.293	31	7	.269	64	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	25	MLB 23%	SD	233	211	46	8	2	5	18	69	2	3	1	.218	.286	.346	.632	.128	.295	30	8	.281	73	-7	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2029	26	MLB 43%	SD	313	282	61	10	2	7	25	92	3	4	1	.216	.287	.340	.628	.124	.296	29	8	.288	79	-8	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.7
2030	27	MLB 63%	SD	357	321	70	12	2	8	29	105	4	5	1	.218	.291	.343	.634	.125	.296	29	8	.289	79	-8	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.9
2031	28	MLB 80%	SD	384	345	76	13	3	9	32	113	4	4	1	.220	.294	.354	.648	.133	.296	29	8	.288	78	-9	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.8
2032	29	MLB	SD	393	353	77	13	3	9	33	117	4	4	0	.218	.292	.348	.641	.130	.295	30	8	.286	77	-10	+1	-1	+7	+11	0.7
2033	30	MLB	SD	397	357	78	13	3	9	33	120	4	3	0	.218	.292	.347	.639	.129	.293	30	8	.283	74	-11	+1	-2	+7	+11	0.6
2034	31	MLB	SD	378	340	72	12	2	8	31	115	4	1	0	.212	.285	.329	.615	.118	.292	30	8	.279	72	-12	+0	-3	+7	+11	0.3
2035	32	MLB	SD	353	318	66	11	2	7	29	110	3	0	0	.208	.280	.321	.601	.113	.290	31	8	.274	68	-13	+0	-4	+6	+10	0.0
2036	33	MLB	SD	318	286	59	10	2	6	26	101	3	0	0	.206	.279	.318	.598	.112	.289	32	8	.269	64	-13	+0	-4	+6	+9	-0.2
2037	34	MLB	SD	270	244	49	8	2	5	22	88	2	0	0	.201	.272	.311	.584	.111	.287	33	8	.263	59	-12	+0	-5	+5	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3599	3239	688	116	24	76	296	1096	35	27	4	.212	.285	.333	.619	.121	.293	30	8	.279	72	-115	+4	-20	+64	+102	3.6
/ 162G	—			650	585	124	21	4	14	53	198	6	5	1	.212	.284	.333	.617	.121	.293	30	8	.279	72	-21	+1	-4	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	ROK	ACL Padres	35	25	4	1	0	0	9	10	1	0	0	.160	.400	.200	.600	.040	.267	29	26	.315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jack Mathey (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	.199/.263/.284	.085	.291	1	1	32%	7%	51	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan Gray 2017 · A	22	39	36→30	48→40	29	.177/.220/.243	.065	.332	3	6	45%	5%	20	-3.8	.180/.231/.270	.090	.390	7	5	52%	6%	33	-2.9	.137/.192/.236	.099	.332	11	2	59%	6%	6	-1.4
✕Nicanor Alvarado 2015 · A	21	37	37→30	49→30	30	.169/.221/.241	.072	.314	4	5	45%	5%	21	-3.7	.180/.242/.252	.072	.334	3	5	44%	5%	33	-2.9	.124/.199/.176	.052	.256	0	0	47%	3%	-6	-1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)