Jack Mathey

C ACL Padres
Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202522ROKSD35.160/.400/.2000025—.103/.257/.138
202623ROKSD88.242/.412/.3180550—.183/.318/.239
2027PROJMLE24MLBSD200.189/.274/.26113550.0
2028PROJ29% MLB25MLBSD25.190/.275/.2670059-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Speed87
Chase%81
wRC+52
wOBA45
BB%38
Whiff%36
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj PA
wRC+†55
AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .272 / .258
PA49
HR0
K%33
BB%8
ISO71
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.6 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202522 ROKACL Padres — 3525 4100 9101 00 160400200600 40267 2926 315 25 — — — — — —
202623 ROKACL Padres — 8866 16310 12237 50 242412318730 76364 2614 339 50 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202522 ROK MLEACL Padres — 3529 3100 5141 00 103257138395 34203 4014 205 25 — — — — — —
202623 ROK MLEACL Padres — 8871 13210 7337 50 183318239557 56293 388 242 50 — — — — — —
202522 ROK MLEACL Padres — 3529 3100 5141 00 103257138395 34200 4014 205 25 — — — — — —
202522 ROK RAWACL Padres — 3525 4100 9101 00 160400200600 40267 2926 315 25 — — — — — —
202623 ROK MLEACL Padres — 8871 13210 7337 50 183318239557 56333 388 242 50 — — — — — —
202623 ROK RAWACL Padres — 8866 16310 12237 50 242412318730 76364 2614 339 50 — — — — — —
202522 ROK MLEACL Padres — 3529 3100 5141 00 103257138395 34203 4014 205 25 — — — — — —
202623 ROK MLEACL Padres — 8874 13210 7337 50 176318230547 54293 388 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202522 ROK MLEACL Padres — 3529 3100 5141 00 103257138395 34203 4014 205 25 — — — — — —
202623 ROK MLEACL Padres — 8874 13210 7337 50 176318230547 54293 388 242 50 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLESD 0% 200177 33611 17674 31 189274261535 71290 348 249 55 -11 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLESD 29% 8576 16311 7282 10 193278272550 79290 338 255 59 -4 +0 +0 +2 +2 -0.1
202825 MLB CTXSD 29% 2522 4100 281 00 190275267542 77285 328 252 59 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 2522 4100 281 00 182280227507 45286 328 252 50 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650572 1042600 5220826 00 182280227507 45286 328 252 50 -32 +0 +0 +12 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 257220 39721 239111 70 177287241528 64295 359 243 50 -7 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650556 991853 5823028 180 178288245533 67294 359 243 50 -33 +2 +0 +12 +14 -0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Padres · 88 PAwOBA .336 → .242 (−94)K% 26.1% → 37.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.14%÷1.000×1.440——37.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.64%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9658.16%
HBP% /PA7.95%—×0.720—×0.9655.53%
Singles /BIP27.91%÷1.000×0.820×1.049×0.96523.16%
Doubles /BIP6.98%÷1.000×0.720×1.049×0.9655.08%
Triples /BIP2.33%÷1.000×0.720×1.049×0.9651.69%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9650.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .336 → .242; ISO .076 → .055; BABIP .364 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 35 PAwOBA .309 → .205 (−104)K% 28.6% → 40.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.57%÷1.023×1.440——40.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA25.71%÷0.990×0.620—×0.97515.70%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.720—×0.9752.01%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.010×0.820—×0.97515.83%
Doubles /BIP6.67%÷1.045×0.720—×0.9754.48%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.780—×0.9750.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .309 → .205; ISO .040 → .026; BABIP .267 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).