John Smith III

LF St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 R/R A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2210ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	22	A+/ANYM	67	.305/.379/.542	3	4	101	—	.249/.302/.463
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBNYM	177	.227/.287/.362	4	4	82	0.0
2028PROJ29% MLB	24	MLBNYM	31	.223/.283/.357	1	1	84	-0.0
2029PROJ45% MLB	25	MLBNYM	75	.224/.285/.360	2	2	86	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Z-Con%92

K%86

Whiff%84

Max EV76

Chase%63

BB%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj PA

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.225 / .285 / .359

PA50

HR1

K%26

BB%6

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	22	A+	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	18	8	2	0	1	2	4	2	1	0	444	545	722	1.268	278	538	18	9	547	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	St. Lucie Mets	—	45	41	10	3	0	2	2	7	1	3	1	244	295	463	759	220	242	16	4	326	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	22	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	—	22	19	7	2	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	368	455	632	1.086	263	449	23	5	430	177	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	45	42	8	2	0	2	1	10	1	3	1	190	227	381	608	190	210	22	2	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	60	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	250	318	417	735	167	295	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	67	59	18	5	0	3	4	11	3	4	1	305	379	542	921	237	326	16	6	399	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	61	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	246	318	410	728	164	288	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	67	61	15	4	0	2	3	15	3	4	1	246	318	410	728	164	288	22	4	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	0%	177	162	37	8	1	4	10	47	3	4	1	227	287	362	650	135	291	27	6	290	82	-4	+0	+0	-2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	29%	105	96	22	5	0	3	6	28	2	2	0	229	290	367	657	138	291	27	6	293	84	-2	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	45%	166	152	35	7	1	4	10	43	3	4	1	230	291	370	661	140	292	26	6	295	86	-3	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	29%	31	28	6	1	0	1	2	8	1	1	0	223	283	357	640	134	282	26	6	286	84	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	45%	75	69	15	3	0	2	5	19	1	2	0	224	285	360	645	136	282	25	7	288	86	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	106	97	21	4	0	3	7	27	2	3	0	216	283	351	634	134	269	25	7	288	88	-2	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	129	25	0	18	43	166	12	18	0	217	283	350	633	133	270	26	7	288	88	-11	+4	+0	-7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	388	354	82	18	1	10	22	99	9	11	2	232	294	373	666	141	290	26	6	298	88	-6	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	138	30	2	17	37	166	15	18	3	233	295	376	671	143	292	26	6	298	88	-12	+2	+0	-7	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 45 PAwOBA .324 → .263 (−61)K% 15.6% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.56%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	21.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	3.04%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.72%
Singles /BIP	14.71%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.990	13.39%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.990	7.25%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.990	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	4.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .324 → .263; ISO .220 → .173; BABIP .242 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 22 PAwOBA .533 → .430 (−102)K% 18.2% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	23.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.998	5.44%
HBP% /PA	9.09%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	6.99%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.000	×0.870	—	×0.998	31.01%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.998	11.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	6.27%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .533 → .430; ISO .278 → .233; BABIP .538 → .449. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).