Rafael Oropeza — OGILVIE

Rafael OropezaSS DSL Phillies White

Age 18 L/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 108 proj PA

wRC+48

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .263 / .272

PA108

HR1

K%31

BB%7

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	129	117	17	5	0	0	9	50	3	7	0	145	225	188	413	43	254	39	7	186	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	129	110	23	7	0	0	16	31	3	7	0	209	326	273	598	64	291	24	12	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	—	108	98	20	4	1	1	8	33	1	2	0	204	271	296	567	92	289	31	7	248	48	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	199	180	37	7	1	2	14	59	3	3	1	206	274	289	563	83	291	30	7	260	58	-10	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	336	303	64	13	2	4	25	97	5	6	1	211	282	307	589	96	293	29	7	270	65	-13	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.0
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	440	397	86	17	2	7	33	125	7	8	1	217	288	322	611	106	294	28	8	276	69	-15	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.3
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	514	462	102	20	3	9	39	145	8	9	2	221	293	335	628	115	295	28	8	280	73	-16	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.5
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	564	507	112	22	3	10	43	158	9	10	2	221	293	335	629	114	296	28	8	282	74	-16	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.7
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	596	536	119	23	3	11	46	167	9	10	2	222	294	338	632	116	297	28	8	285	76	-16	+1	+0	+6	+17	0.8
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	615	554	123	24	3	12	47	172	9	11	2	222	293	341	635	119	297	28	8	286	77	-16	+1	+0	+7	+17	1.0
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	625	562	124	24	3	12	48	175	10	11	2	221	294	338	632	117	297	28	8	287	78	-16	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	626	562	124	24	3	12	49	176	10	11	2	221	295	338	633	117	297	28	8	287	78	-16	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.0
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	622	558	124	24	3	12	49	175	10	10	2	222	297	341	637	118	296	28	8	286	77	-16	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.9
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	612	549	120	23	3	11	49	174	9	9	2	219	293	332	625	113	296	28	8	284	76	-17	+1	-1	+7	+17	0.7
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	602	540	118	23	3	11	48	173	9	8	2	219	293	333	626	115	295	29	8	282	74	-18	+1	-2	+6	+17	0.4
2039	31	MLB	—	57%	588	527	114	22	3	10	47	170	9	7	1	216	292	326	618	110	293	29	8	278	71	-19	+1	-3	+6	+17	0.2
2040	32	MLB	—	54%	570	512	108	20	3	9	45	167	8	6	1	211	285	314	599	104	290	29	8	273	67	-21	+1	-4	+6	+16	-0.2
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	68	62	13	3	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	210	279	306	586	97	291	29	7	260	58	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	163	148	31	6	1	2	12	47	2	3	1	209	278	304	582	95	293	29	7	270	65	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	239	215	46	9	1	4	18	68	4	4	1	214	287	321	608	107	294	28	8	276	69	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	291	263	58	11	2	5	22	82	4	5	1	221	291	335	625	114	295	28	8	280	73	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	325	292	64	12	2	6	25	91	5	6	1	219	292	336	628	116	296	28	8	282	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	340	306	68	13	2	6	26	95	5	6	1	222	294	337	630	114	297	28	8	285	76	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	349	314	70	13	2	7	27	98	5	6	1	223	295	344	639	121	297	28	8	286	77	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	354	319	71	14	2	7	27	99	5	6	1	223	293	345	638	122	297	28	8	287	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	347	312	69	13	2	7	27	97	5	6	1	221	294	343	637	122	297	28	8	287	78	-9	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2036	28	MLB	—	55%	342	307	67	13	2	6	27	96	5	6	1	218	292	332	624	114	296	28	8	286	77	-9	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.5
2037	29	MLB	—	53%	327	293	64	12	2	6	26	93	5	5	1	218	293	334	628	116	296	28	8	284	76	-9	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.4
2038	30	MLB	—	53%	317	284	63	12	2	6	25	91	5	4	1	222	296	342	638	120	295	29	8	282	74	-9	+0	-1	+3	+9	0.2
2039	31	MLB	—	57%	332	298	64	12	2	6	26	96	5	4	1	215	289	329	618	114	293	29	8	278	71	-11	+0	-2	+4	+9	0.1
2040	32	MLB	—	54%	310	277	58	11	1	5	25	91	5	3	1	209	287	310	597	101	290	29	8	273	67	-12	+0	-2	+3	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4104	3690	806	154	23	74	318	1164	61	65	13	218	291	333	624	114	296	28	8	282	74	-122	+8	-6	+44	+116	4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	24	4	12	50	184	10	10	2	219	292	336	628	116	296	28	8	282	74	-19	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	7746	6964	1512	295	39	133	599	2216	119	128	23	217	290	328	618	111	296	29	8	279	72	-247	+16	-10	+83	+219	6.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	127	25	3	11	50	186	10	11	2	217	290	327	617	110	297	29	8	279	72	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	129	110	23	7	0	0	16	31	3	7	0	209	326	273	598	64	291	24	12	286	77	-3	+1	—	—	+4	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	4,211	73	66	219	288	331	+45	+24	3.9	3.6
	/162	664	12	10	219	288	331	+7.1	+3.8	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Oropeza (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	198/263/272	74	289	1	2	31%	7%	48	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	40	-2.4	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	59	-1.1	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	43→45	38→45	46→50	44	201/275/277	76	311	6	9	35%	9%	54	-1.4	211/298/310	99	331	7	14	35%	9%	72	-0.2	226/292/355	129	316	11	14	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→41	38→45	53→55	48	181/263/262	81	241	5	13	26%	8%	46	-2.0	206/287/315	109	272	10	17	26%	9%	69	-0.4	200/284/304	104	268	11	24	28%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	37	-2.6	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	53	-1.5	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Juan Centeno 2008 · A	18	41	37→45	49→40	43	197/253/265	68	259	4	6	25%	6%	40	-2.4	198/256/259	61	255	3	6	22%	6%	40	-2.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Sandy Acevedo 2011 · A	18	42	37→45	52→50	41	196/262/279	83	295	2	9	32%	7%	48	-1.9	192/261/290	98	287	7	11	33%	7%	51	-1.7	171/246/285	114	248	10	12	33%	7%	41	-0.7
✕Jorge Burgos 2021 · A	18	43→52	36→50	51→45	43	201/265/280	79	293	2	10	30%	7%	50	-1.8	231/294/317	86	328	5	6	29%	8%	71	-0.3	229/296/316	87	321	6	4	28%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	37→47	35→45	44→45	45	175/255/243	68	260	2	6	31%	8%	37	-2.6	206/250/273	67	281	3	5	26%	5%	40	-2.4	255/291/351	96	335	7	7	25%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Argenis Aldazoro 2011 · A	18	39	37→55	56→50	40	184/248/267	83	281	2	8	33%	7%	40	-2.4	181/235/271	90	247	6	8	28%	5%	34	-2.8	194/220/316	122	252	12	8	28%	3%	36	-0.8
✕Anderdson Rojas 2022 · A	18	39→44	37→40	50→55	39	188/247/257	69	265	4	12	29%	5%	37	-2.7	205/248/284	79	264	3	13	23%	4%	43	-2.2	206/248/289	83	259	4	17	21%	4%	42	-1.3
✕Luis Valenzuela 2013 · A	19	42	38→45	52→45	44	198/258/283	84	268	4	6	26%	7%	47	-1.9	212/252/292	80	276	5	8	24%	5%	46	-2.0	257/280/358	100	316	5	7	20%	2%	71	-0.1
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
●Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	38→48	37→45	46→55	47	183/255/256	73	241	5	11	25%	8%	40	-2.4	207/259/305	98	267	5	11	23%	6%	53	-1.5	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Luis Liberato 2014 · A	18	41→51	37→55	48→50	41	195/252/268	73	282	4	13	31%	6%	41	-2.3	192/253/275	83	290	4	11	32%	7%	43	-2.2	237/280/389	152	300	18	5	27%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	44→47	38→50	46→50	41	211/266/287	76	294	6	6	29%	6%	52	-1.6	206/257/295	89	285	7	8	29%	6%	50	-1.7	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
●Manuel Pena 2022 · A	18	41→43	40→50	50	41	202/257/292	90	282	8	15	30%	7%	50	-1.8	197/245/281	84	297	6	9	33%	6%	41	-2.3	216/250/345	129	289	16	6	31%	4%	58	-0.9
✕Sauris Mejia 2015 · A	18	42	35→40	48→50	45	193/273/252	59	282	2	13	30%	8%	47	-1.9	205/290/285	80	293	6	12	29%	9%	63	-0.9	189/292/264	75	265	7	15	28%	11%	56	-0.5