Juan Garcia — OGILVIE

Juan GarciaC FCL Orioles

Age 19 R/R 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj PA

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .257 / .245

PA3

HR0

K%37

BB%8

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	60	5	2	0	0	10	30	4	2	0	83	257	117	373	33	156	39	13	197	20	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	27	20	2	0	0	0	7	8	0	0	1	100	333	100	433		167	30	26	248	54	-1	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	64	3	1	0	0	6	44	4	2	0	47	176	62	238	16	116	57	8	127	-28	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	27	23	2	0	0	0	4	12	0	0	1	87	222	87	309		137	44	15	158	-7	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	64	3	1	0	0	6	44	4	2	0	47	176	62	238	16	136	57	8	127	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	60	5	2	0	0	10	30	4	2	0	83	257	117	373	33	156	39	13	197	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	27	23	2	0	0	0	4	12	0	0	1	87	222	87	309		182	44	15	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	27	20	2	0	0	0	7	8	0	0	1	100	333	100	433		167	30	26	248	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	67	3	1	0	0	6	44	4	2	0	45	176	60	235	15	116	57	8	127	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	27	23	2	0	0	0	4	12	0	0	1	87	222	87	309		137	44	15	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	—	77	67	3	1	0	0	6	44	4	2	0	45	176	60	235	15	116	57	8	127	-28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	27	23	2	0	0	0	4	12	0	0	1	87	222	87	309		137	44	15	158	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						289	33	0	236	46	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	132	118	22	4	1	1	11	46	2	2	0	186	267	263	530	76	291	35	8	249	55	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	279	249	49	9	2	4	23	95	5	3	1	197	278	297	575	100	292	34	8	258	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	390	348	69	13	2	6	33	130	6	5	1	198	279	299	578	101	293	33	8	264	65	-16	+1	+0	+7	+8	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	465	415	83	15	3	7	39	153	8	5	2	200	281	301	583	101	294	33	8	268	68	-18	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	514	458	92	17	3	8	43	169	8	6	2	201	281	303	584	103	295	33	8	270	69	-19	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	BAL	57%	520	462	94	17	3	9	44	170	9	6	2	203	285	312	597	108	295	33	8	271	70	-19	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	520	462	94	17	3	9	44	170	9	6	2	203	285	312	597	108	295	33	8	272	70	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	520	461	94	17	3	9	45	171	9	6	2	204	287	312	600	108	295	33	9	272	70	-18	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	520	461	93	17	3	9	45	172	9	6	2	202	285	310	596	108	294	33	9	271	70	-19	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	520	461	93	17	3	9	45	173	9	5	2	202	285	310	596	108	293	33	9	269	68	-20	+0	-1	+9	+11	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	45	40	6	1	0	0	4	16	1	1	0	150	244	175	419	25	295	36	9	241	55	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	135	121	24	4	1	2	11	46	2	2	0	198	276	298	574	99	297	34	8	250	61	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	212	188	38	7	1	3	18	70	4	2	1	202	286	298	584	96	298	33	8	256	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	263	235	47	9	1	4	22	86	4	3	1	200	280	298	578	98	299	33	8	260	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2031	24	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	291	259	54	10	2	5	25	95	5	3	1	208	291	320	611	112	299	33	9	262	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	BAL	57%	294	262	54	10	2	5	25	96	5	3	1	206	288	317	604	111	300	33	9	263	70	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	294	262	54	10	2	5	25	96	5	3	1	206	288	317	604	111	299	33	9	264	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	288	256	53	10	2	5	25	95	5	3	1	207	290	320	611	113	299	33	9	264	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	285	253	52	9	2	5	25	94	5	3	1	206	290	316	606	111	299	33	9	263	70	-10	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	278	247	50	9	1	5	24	92	5	3	1	202	286	308	594	105	298	33	9	261	68	-10	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2385	2123	432	79	14	39	204	786	41	26	8	203	286	309	595	106	301	33	9	261	66	-90	+2	-1	+43	+52	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	119	22	4	11	56	214	11	7	2	206	288	314	602	109	303	33	9	261	66	-25	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4487	3985	788	144	26	71	382	1506	78	52	17	198	281	300	581	103	295	34	9	265	66	-167	+4	-2	+78	+95	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	114	21	4	10	55	218	11	8	2	198	280	300	579	102	295	34	8	265	66	-25	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.7	2,428	39	28	201	280	305	+43	+24	2.0	2.0
/162	664	11	8	+11.9	+6.6	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Garcia (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	177/257/245	68	289	0	0	37%	8%	46	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nerio Rodriguez 2019 · A	19	35	38→40	48→40	37	165/229/241	76	295	5	4	43%	8%	34	-3.5	192/262/279	87	313	6	4	37%	8%	55	-2.0	192/271/292	100	291	10	1	35%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Geoandry Montilla 2015 · A	19	41	35→45	48→50	37	191/242/251	60	300	2	7	35%	6%	39	-3.1	207/270/307	100	295	8	8	30%	7%	64	-1.3	193/264/302	109	273	10	9	31%	8%	58	-0.5
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	38	-3.2	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	52	-2.2	178/237/252	75	274	4	2	34%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/288/272	81	291	5	8	32%	10%	64	-1.3	194/290/296	102	287	9	14	33%	10%	70	-0.8	175/281/296	121	259	13	27	34%	10%	66	-0.9
✕Ronny Brito 2018 · A	19	37	38→45	50	37	178/235/261	83	285	5	10	37%	6%	40	-3.1	201/250/308	107	347	11	5	42%	6%	56	-1.9	159/212/281	121	293	17	1	49%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Frank Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	41	36→45	48→30	45	188/278/251	63	293	3	5	34%	9%	55	-1.9	188/250/272	84	275	7	4	32%	6%	49	-2.4	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Aneudis Mordán 2023 · A	19	37→29	35→45	47→40	37	173/235/229	56	286	3	6	38%	6%	32	-3.6	183/246/290	107	272	12	5	35%	7%	51	-2.2	163/228/271	108	233	14	3	36%	7%	38	-1.4
✕Steven Baron 2011 · A	20	34	37→45	45→50	32	169/209/234	65	278	5	5	40%	4%	24	-4.2	181/220/273	92	260	7	9	32%	4%	36	-3.3	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	53	-2.1	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	55	-1.9	147/225/231	84	286	8	19	48%	6%	29	-1.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2009 · A	19	38	36→45	46→45	34	177/236/241	64	307	3	6	41%	6%	36	-3.4	200/267/272	72	312	2	7	33%	8%	55	-2.0	191/263/258	67	301	2	8	34%	8%	47	-0.8
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	40	174/248/241	67	276	4	6	36%	7%	41	-3.0	195/256/281	86	295	7	4	34%	7%	53	-2.1	183/247/263	80	272	8	3	34%	7%	43	-1.1
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	45	-2.7	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	55	-2.0	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Luis Andujar 2019 · A	19	42	37→40	53→50	38	197/250/268	71	300	4	9	34%	6%	47	-2.5	215/278/290	75	306	3	10	28%	7%	63	-1.4	221/291/292	71	306	2	12	26%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	48→45	38	194/251/289	95	288	8	7	34%	6%	53	-2.1	197/259/275	78	321	4	8	37%	7%	52	-2.2	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	33	-0.8
✕Johan Mieses 2014 · A	19	43→33	36→55	45→50	42	203/266/272	69	296	3	9	31%	7%	54	-2.0	204/252/339	135	276	13	14	30%	5%	64	-1.3	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	54	-2.0	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	58	-1.7	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	46	-0.7
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→60	47→40	38	174/236/245	70	296	4	6	40%	7%	37	-3.3	193/257/301	108	312	11	5	39%	8%	58	-1.7	197/257/339	142	318	16	2	41%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	57	-1.8	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	61	-1.5	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Yowelfy Rosario 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	53→45	40	186/251/280	95	295	4	7	36%	7%	51	-2.3	185/245/267	82	320	4	7	40%	6%	45	-2.7	131/183/181	50	249	3	5	46%	5%	0	-1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps