Erick Lugo — OGILVIE

Erick LugoSS DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .268 / .280

PA87

HR1

K%29

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	21	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	360	40	8	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	89	16	5	0	0	6	28	2	0	0	180	247	236	483	56	254	28	6	210	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	TB	—	87	80	16	3	0	1	6	25	1	1	0	200	264	275	539	75	289	29	7	253	52	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	177	160	34	7	1	2	13	50	2	2	1	212	280	306	586	94	291	28	7	265	61	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	314	284	61	12	2	4	23	86	4	3	1	215	283	313	596	99	293	27	7	273	67	-12	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.1
2029	22	MLB	TB	54%	415	376	83	16	2	7	30	113	6	4	1	221	289	330	619	109	294	27	7	279	72	-13	+0	+0	+4	+12	0.3
2030	23	MLB	TB	57%	482	436	97	19	3	8	36	130	7	5	2	222	292	335	627	112	294	27	7	283	75	-14	+0	+0	+5	+14	0.5
2031	24	MLB	TB	57%	526	475	106	21	3	9	39	141	7	5	2	223	292	337	629	114	295	27	7	285	76	-14	+0	+0	+6	+15	0.7
2032	25	MLB	TB	57%	553	499	112	22	3	10	41	149	8	5	2	224	294	341	634	116	296	27	7	287	78	-14	+0	+0	+6	+16	0.8
2033	26	MLB	TB	56%	567	512	116	23	3	11	42	152	8	6	2	227	295	348	643	121	295	27	7	288	78	-14	+0	+0	+6	+16	0.9
2027	20	MLB	TB	34%	61	56	12	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	214	279	304	582	89	295	28	7	256	54	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	TB	48%	152	138	30	6	1	2	11	42	2	1	1	217	285	319	604	101	296	28	7	264	60	-7	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	TB	54%	225	203	45	9	1	3	17	61	3	2	1	222	291	320	612	99	297	27	8	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	TB	57%	273	247	57	11	2	5	20	74	4	3	1	231	299	352	651	121	298	27	7	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2031	24	MLB	TB	57%	297	269	61	12	2	5	22	80	4	3	1	227	295	342	637	115	299	27	7	276	69	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2032	25	MLB	TB	57%	312	282	64	12	2	6	23	84	4	3	1	227	294	348	642	121	299	27	7	277	71	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2033	26	MLB	TB	56%	320	288	65	12	2	6	24	86	5	3	1	226	297	344	640	118	299	27	8	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1640	1483	334	64	10	28	121	444	23	16	6	225	294	339	632	113	300	27	7	274	68	-60	+1	+0	+18	+46	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	132	25	4	11	48	176	9	6	2	224	293	337	630	112	300	27	7	274	68	-24	+0	+0	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	3273	2957	650	130	17	52	240	895	47	32	11	220	289	328	617	108	295	27	7	279	72	-105	+2	+0	+35	+93	2.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	129	26	3	10	48	178	9	6	2	220	289	325	614	106	295	27	7	279	72	-21	+0	+0	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	150	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	93	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,728	29	17	223	288	334	+19	+15	1.7	1.8
	/162	664	11	7	223	288	334	+7.1	+5.8	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Lugo (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/268/280	76	289	1	1	29%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	44	-2.1	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	40	-2.4	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	37	-2.6	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	49	-1.8	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	43	-2.2	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	53	-1.5	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Jesus Ugueto 2010 · A	19	43	37→45	45→50	43	203/265/278	75	297	4	6	31%	7%	50	-1.8	221/273/309	88	288	6	8	24%	6%	60	-1.0	231/284/346	115	294	9	11	24%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2010 · A	19	43	38→45	46→45	38	202/250/284	82	300	5	5	33%	6%	43	-2.2	219/259/313	94	273	9	6	22%	5%	55	-1.4	232/268/336	104	264	12	5	17%	4%	61	-0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2019 · A	19	38	34→55	52→40	37	182/225/238	56	256	1	6	29%	4%	21	-3.7	213/281/291	78	282	4	6	25%	6%	60	-1.0	201/286/345	144	258	19	1	29%	7%	80	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→46	39→45	48→45	46	210/278/294	84	284	6	8	27%	8%	59	-1.1	225/302/319	94	296	6	8	24%	10%	76	+0.0	210/281/328	118	268	13	6	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2014 · A	19	43→33	36→55	45→50	42	203/266/272	69	296	3	9	31%	7%	48	-1.9	202/250/339	137	273	14	14	30%	5%	59	-1.1	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Edward Duran 2023 · A	19	43→45	35→40	48→50	47	200/268/269	69	262	2	7	23%	7%	49	-1.8	224/299/299	75	294	4	8	23%	8%	69	-0.4	225/304/305	79	304	5	8	25%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2