Erick Lugo — OGILVIE

Erick LugoSS DSL Tampa Bay

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 87 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .269 / .279

PA8

HR0

K%29

BB%7

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	144	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	93	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	22	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	379	42	8	249	55	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	89	16	4	0	0	6	29	2	0	0	180	247	225	472	45	241	29	6	212	30	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	22	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	375	42	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	89	16	4	0	0	6	29	2	0	0	180	247	225	472	45	258	29	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	22	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	379	42	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	92	16	4	0	0	6	29	2	0	0	174	247	217	465	43	241	29	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	22	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	379	42	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	92	16	4	0	0	6	29	2	0	0	174	247	217	465	43	241	29	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	TB	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		289	25	12	253	57	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	34%	177	160	34	7	1	2	13	50	2	1	0	212	280	306	586	94	291	28	7	265	66	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	48%	314	284	62	12	2	4	23	86	4	2	1	218	286	317	603	99	292	27	7	274	71	-11	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	TB	54%	415	375	83	16	2	7	31	112	6	2	1	221	291	331	622	109	293	27	7	280	75	-12	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	TB	57%	482	436	96	19	2	8	36	129	7	3	1	220	290	328	618	108	294	27	7	283	78	-13	+0	+0	+5	+10	0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	TB	57%	526	475	107	21	3	9	39	141	7	3	1	225	294	339	633	114	295	27	7	286	79	-13	+0	+0	+6	+11	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	TB	57%	553	498	112	22	3	10	42	148	8	3	1	225	296	341	637	116	295	27	8	287	81	-13	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	TB	56%	567	511	115	22	3	11	43	151	8	3	1	225	295	344	640	119	295	27	8	288	81	-13	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	TB	55%	571	514	116	22	3	11	44	153	8	3	1	226	297	344	641	119	295	27	8	288	81	-13	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	TB	55%	569	512	115	22	3	11	44	153	8	3	1	225	296	344	640	119	295	27	8	288	81	-13	+0	-1	+6	+12	0.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	561	504	113	22	3	10	44	152	8	3	1	224	297	339	636	115	294	27	8	286	80	-14	+0	-1	+6	+12	0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	TB	53%	552	496	110	21	3	10	43	151	8	3	1	222	294	337	631	115	293	27	8	283	78	-15	+0	-2	+6	+12	0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	TB	52%	538	484	105	20	2	9	42	149	7	3	1	217	289	322	611	105	291	28	8	279	75	-16	+0	-3	+6	+12	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	TB	34%	61	56	12	2	0	1	4	17	1	0	0	214	279	304	582	89	300	28	7	262	66	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	48%	152	138	31	6	1	2	11	42	2	1	0	225	291	326	617	101	301	28	7	270	71	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	TB	54%	225	203	46	9	1	4	17	61	3	1	0	227	296	340	636	113	302	27	8	276	75	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	TB	57%	273	247	57	11	2	5	20	73	4	2	1	231	299	352	651	121	303	27	7	280	78	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	TB	57%	297	269	61	12	2	5	22	79	4	2	1	227	295	342	637	115	304	27	7	282	79	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	TB	57%	312	282	66	13	2	6	23	83	4	2	1	234	301	358	659	124	304	27	7	284	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	TB	56%	320	288	67	13	2	6	24	85	5	2	1	233	303	354	657	122	304	27	8	285	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	TB	55%	317	286	66	13	2	6	24	85	4	2	1	231	299	353	653	122	304	27	8	285	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	TB	55%	312	281	65	13	2	6	24	84	4	2	1	231	301	356	657	125	303	27	8	284	81	-7	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	300	270	62	12	2	6	23	81	4	2	1	230	300	356	655	126	303	27	8	282	80	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2037	30	MLB CTX	TB	53%	291	262	59	12	1	5	23	80	4	2	1	225	298	336	633	111	302	27	8	280	78	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	TB	52%	281	253	56	11	1	5	22	78	4	1	1	221	294	332	626	111	300	28	8	276	75	-8	-0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3141	2835	648	127	18	57	237	848	43	19	9	229	298	346	644	118	304	27	8	281	77	-81	+0	-4	+34	+68	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	134	26	4	12	49	175	9	4	2	228	298	348	645	119	303	27	8	281	77	-17	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5985	5391	1194	232	30	102	455	1628	85	33	11	221	292	332	625	111	296	27	8	282	77	-151	+2	-7	+62	+126	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	129	25	3	11	49	177	9	4	1	221	290	330	620	109	294	27	8	282	77	-17	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Darwin Barneylast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,729 PA	4.1	2,729	29	29	246	294	339	+10	+46	6.5	6.5
/162	664	7	7	+2.5	+11.2	1.6	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,228	56	18	223	290	336	+35	+21	4.0	3.6
/162	664	12	4	+7.1	+4.3	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Lugo (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/269/279	75	289	1	1	29%	7%	57	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→48	36→50	49→40	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	49	-2.4	204/277/280	76	276	6	5	26%	8%	61	-1.5	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	53	-2.1	211/261/303	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	59	-1.6	185/229/266	80	254	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	51	-2.3	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	47	-2.6	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Carlos Narváez 2018 · A	19	46→45	36→45	48→45	46	219/274/285	66	269	4	3	20%	6%	59	-1.6	217/290/287	70	304	5	5	27%	9%	67	-1.1	212/295/344	132	286	15	6	29%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	288	5	7	31%	8%	58	-1.7	194/291/271	77	319	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	158/267/223	66	272	6	3	39%	10%	45	-1.1
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	45	-2.7	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	55	-2.0	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2010 · A	19	43	38→45	46→45	38	202/250/284	82	300	5	5	33%	6%	50	-2.3	219/259/313	94	273	9	6	22%	5%	60	-1.6	232/268/336	104	264	12	5	17%	4%	66	-0.3
✕Jesus Ugueto 2010 · A	19	43	37→45	45→50	43	203/265/278	75	297	4	6	31%	7%	55	-1.9	221/273/309	88	288	6	8	24%	6%	65	-1.2	231/284/346	115	294	9	11	24%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Frank Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	41	36→45	48→30	45	188/278/251	63	293	3	5	34%	9%	55	-1.9	188/250/272	84	275	7	4	32%	6%	49	-2.4	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Marco Guzman 2014 · A	19	39	36→45	44→50	48	185/262/256	71	249	3	8	25%	9%	50	-2.3	207/264/294	87	251	5	7	19%	7%	58	-1.7	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	39	39→45	47→50	45	192/256/277	84	251	7	8	26%	7%	52	-2.2	210/290/338	128	295	14	8	31%	9%	79	-0.2	177/254/299	122	259	13	14	35%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Hector Garcia 2009 · A	19	42	37→45	44→40	44	201/251/268	68	260	5	4	24%	6%	47	-2.5	218/268/302	84	272	6	3	21%	5%	61	-1.5	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	61	-0.4
✕Joe DeCarlo 2013 · A	19	39→38	41→50	43→30	45	190/272/291	102	269	8	3	30%	8%	62	-1.4	186/267/286	100	300	9	2	38%	8%	59	-1.6	193/274/341	148	264	18	1	32%	8%	71	-0.5
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	43→42	40→50	44→50	40	207/266/301	93	288	7	6	30%	6%	61	-1.5	209/273/340	131	270	15	6	28%	6%	73	-0.6	205/270/341	137	257	17	5	27%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→50	45	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	37	-3.3	211/249/327	116	282	13	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2009 · A	19	38	36→45	46→45	34	177/236/241	64	307	3	6	41%	6%	36	-3.4	200/267/272	72	312	2	7	33%	8%	55	-2.0	191/263/258	67	301	2	8	34%	8%	47	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps