Erick Lugo

SS DSL Tampa Bay

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKTB	52	.318/.423/.409	0	1	51	—	.196/.288/.239
2025	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	100	.259/.351/.329	0	0	19	—	.159/.237/.205
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBTB	210	.207/.275/.279	1	1	58	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBTB	25	.214/.282/.294	0	0	63	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%73

K%58

Whiff%54

wOBA38

wRC+38

ISO32

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .273 / .277

PA37

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	88	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	159	237	205	442	45	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	321	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	52	44	14	4	0	0	6	15	2	1	0	318	423	409	832	91	483	29	12	382	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	88	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	159	237	205	442	45	212	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	85	22	6	0	0	10	20	2	0	0	259	351	329	680	71	328	20	10	306	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	91	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	154	237	198	435	44	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	52	46	9	2	0	0	4	18	2	1	0	196	288	239	528	43	317	35	8	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	100	91	14	4	0	0	7	24	2	0	0	154	237	198	435	44	200	24	7	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TB	0%	210	190	39	8	1	1	15	58	3	1	1	207	275	279	554	72	289	28	7	254	58	-10	-0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	TB	34%	73	67	14	3	0	1	5	20	1	0	0	211	280	293	573	82	290	27	7	262	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	TB	34%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	214	282	294	576	80	293	28	8	263	63	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	217	280	261	541	43	312	28	8	263	43	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	130	26	0	0	52	182	0	0	0	217	280	261	541	43	312	28	8	263	43	-28	+0	+0	+7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	262	235	43	10	0	1	19	72	5	1	0	183	259	238	497	55	256	27	7	232	43	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	106	25	0	2	47	179	12	2	0	182	257	235	492	53	256	28	7	232	43	-30	+0	+0	+7	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 100 PAwOBA .305 → .197 (−108)K% 20.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.005	×1.220	—	—	24.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷1.011	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.89%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	1.39%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.054	×0.680	×0.950	×0.995	15.01%
Doubles /BIP	9.23%	÷0.944	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	5.55%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.950	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.952	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .305 → .197; ISO .071 → .044; BABIP .328 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Rays · 52 PAwOBA .372 → .243 (−130)K% 28.8% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.85%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.54%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.26%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.71%
Singles /BIP	34.48%	÷0.994	×0.680	—	×1.008	23.77%
Doubles /BIP	13.79%	÷1.053	×0.600	—	×1.008	7.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.160	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 99, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .372 → .243; ISO .091 → .051; BABIP .483 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).