Nestor Urbina — OGILVIE

Nestor Urbina2B DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 19 S/R 5'10" / 168 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .268 / .297

PA98

HR1

K%27

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	132	118	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	161	250	229	479	68	240	32	9	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	32	2	2	0	196	252	308	561	112	267	28	5	250	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	MIN	—	98	90	19	4	1	1	7	27	1	2	0	211	276	311	587	100	278	28	7	259	56	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	188	170	37	7	2	3	14	50	2	4	1	218	285	335	620	118	281	27	7	270	65	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	323	292	64	13	3	5	24	84	4	7	2	219	287	336	623	116	283	26	7	278	71	-11	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.0
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	422	382	83	17	3	7	32	109	5	9	2	217	286	332	619	115	284	26	8	283	74	-12	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.2
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	488	442	98	19	4	9	37	125	6	10	3	222	291	344	635	122	285	26	8	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	531	479	107	21	4	10	41	136	6	11	3	223	293	347	639	123	286	26	8	287	78	-13	+1	+0	+2	+15	0.5
2032	25	MLB	MIN	57%	557	502	112	22	4	11	43	142	7	12	3	223	293	349	642	125	286	25	8	288	79	-13	+1	+0	+2	+16	0.6
2033	26	MLB	MIN	56%	571	515	115	23	4	11	44	146	7	12	3	223	293	348	641	124	286	26	8	288	79	-14	+1	+0	+2	+16	0.6
2027	20	MLB	MIN	34%	65	59	13	2	1	1	5	17	1	1	0	220	292	339	631	119	281	26	8	262	59	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	MIN	48%	157	142	31	6	1	3	12	41	2	3	1	218	288	338	626	120	283	26	8	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	MIN	54%	229	207	46	9	2	4	17	59	3	5	1	222	291	343	634	121	284	26	7	274	68	-8	+1	+0	+1	+6	-0.0
2030	23	MLB	MIN	57%	276	250	55	11	2	5	21	71	3	6	1	220	288	340	628	120	285	26	8	277	70	-9	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2031	24	MLB	MIN	57%	300	270	60	12	2	6	23	77	4	6	2	222	293	348	641	126	286	26	8	279	71	-10	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.0
2032	25	MLB	MIN	57%	315	284	62	12	2	6	24	80	4	7	2	218	288	338	626	120	286	25	8	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2033	26	MLB	MIN	56%	323	291	65	13	3	6	25	82	4	7	2	223	294	351	644	127	286	25	8	280	72	-10	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1665	1503	332	65	13	31	127	427	21	35	9	221	291	343	634	122	286	26	8	276	70	-57	+3	+0	+6	+47	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	129	25	5	12	50	167	8	14	4	220	290	341	631	121	284	26	8	276	70	-22	+1	+0	+2	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	3426	3097	675	136	27	59	260	893	42	78	20	218	287	336	624	119	285	26	8	280	73	-106	+8	+0	+12	+97	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	128	26	5	11	49	169	8	15	4	218	287	335	622	117	285	26	8	280	73	-20	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	111	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	123	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,762	32	38	221	287	342	+6	+5	1.1	1.2
	/162	664	12	14	221	287	342	+2.4	+1.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Urbina (OGILVIE)	19	35→40	32→37	50→55	52	203/268/297	94	278	1	2	27%	7%	56	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→46	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	49	-1.8	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	30	-3.1	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	53	-1.5	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	44→46	37→45	50→55	45	209/273/283	74	281	5	13	26%	7%	54	-1.4	222/267/297	75	295	4	18	24%	6%	54	-1.4	211/274/331	120	275	10	12	26%	8%	63	-0.5
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	51	193/275/258	65	253	3	8	24%	9%	50	-1.8	200/306/292	92	270	5	6	25%	12%	72	-0.2	182/303/271	88	244	5	5	24%	13%	64	-0.3
✕Diego Velasquez 2023 · A	19	42→51	34→40	50→55	44	200/257/251	51	263	2	7	24%	6%	39	-2.5	229/294/315	86	297	6	14	23%	7%	72	-0.2	239/309/308	69	304	4	19	21%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	69	-0.4	221/287/267	45	270	0	22	16%	8%	54	-0.5
✕Rosell Herrera 2012 · A	19	42→52	39→45	49→55	43	203/258/285	82	265	6	9	25%	6%	48	-1.9	217/267/293	76	300	6	10	28%	6%	53	-1.5	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2012 · A	19	43	36→40	47→65	48	203/270/269	66	256	4	16	21%	8%	50	-1.8	209/282/280	71	262	3	24	20%	8%	57	-1.2	210/296/279	69	262	2	36	19%	9%	60	-0.4
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	42	-2.3	225/287/323	98	318	6	19	29%	7%	70	-0.3	201/262/323	122	304	12	21	36%	6%	57	-0.6
✕Milkar Perez 2021 · A	19	43	39→40	45→40	44	205/274/289	84	285	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.3	203/295/261	58	310	2	4	31%	11%	59	-1.1	211/289/292	82	309	5	2	31%	9%	61	-0.6
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→51	36→40	50→55	47	200/276/275	74	283	2	6	28%	9%	53	-1.5	220/297/313	93	288	7	14	24%	10%	72	-0.2	227/311/321	94	298	8	22	25%	11%	78	+0.1
✕Wilmer Difo 2011 · A	19	39→49	35→45	53→55	43	185/240/246	61	245	2	14	24%	6%	30	-3.1	206/272/279	73	259	3	20	20%	8%	53	-1.5	251/290/357	106	305	8	26	20%	4%	76	+0.1
✕Brainer Bonaci 2021 · A	19	43→42	39→45	48→50	43	208/263/292	84	267	6	13	24%	6%	52	-1.6	203/274/303	100	288	8	14	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/275/309	108	283	10	14	30%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Allan Castro 2022 · A	19	38→43	38→45	51→55	41	184/252/273	90	271	4	6	32%	7%	43	-2.2	192/261/299	107	277	8	11	31%	8%	54	-1.4	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Emmanuel Morel 2015 · A	18	42	36→30	51→55	41	199/261/262	63	278	3	9	28%	6%	43	-2.2	192/267/250	58	298	2	16	33%	9%	43	-2.2	173/256/219	46	280	0	22	34%	9%	29	-0.9
✕Geraldo Quintero 2021 · A	19	44→50	38→40	51→60	49	207/277/289	82	253	5	16	20%	7%	58	-1.2	209/274/295	86	277	4	19	24%	7%	57	-1.2	225/290/312	88	297	5	28	24%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6