Nestor Urbina

2B DSL Blue Jays Red
Age 20 S/R 5'10" / 168 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1845ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKMIN132.243/.364/.3511932—.154/.250/.222
202518ROKDSL Blue Jays…116.272/.348/.4371239—.170/.235/.245
2027PROJMLE20MLBMIN226.212/.276/.30126640.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBMIN25.216/.282/.3160169-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB22MLBMIN82.220/.286/.3291274-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk
ISO83
Speed74
K%67
Whiff%63
Z-Con%61
wOBA60
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj PA
wRC+†64
AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .274 / .298
PA39
HR0
K%26
BB%7
ISO89
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.1 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +0.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-1$0.6M———
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $1M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Twins — 132111 27521 19292 93 243364351715 108321 2214 331 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Blue Jays Red — 116103 281021 10212 20 272348437785 165329 189 346 39 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 132117 18311 13352 93 154250222472 68211 2710 215 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Red — 116106 18610 7262 20 170235245480 75222 226 226 39 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 132117 18311 13352 93 154250222472 68210 2710 215 32 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Twins — 132111 27521 19292 93 243364351715 108321 2214 331 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Red — 116106 18610 7262 20 170235245480 75222 226 226 39 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Blue Jays Red — 116103 281021 10212 20 272348437785 165329 189 346 39 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 132116 18311 13352 93 155250224474 69211 2710 215 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Red — 116106 18610 7262 20 170235245480 75222 226 226 39 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Twins — 132116 18311 13352 93 155250224474 69211 2710 215 32 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Red — 116106 18610 7262 20 170235245480 75222 226 226 39 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEMIN 0% 226206 44922 16602 61 212276301577 89286 277 262 64 -10 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEMIN 34% 7468 15311 5191 21 216282315597 99287 267 270 69 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
202922 MLB MLEMIN 50% 164149 33622 12422 51 220286328615 108289 267 277 74 -5 +1 +0 +1 +4 -0.0
203023 MLB MLEMIN 58% 258234 521024 19663 82 223290339629 116290 267 283 78 -7 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.0
203124 MLB MLEMIN 61% 346313 711436 26874 103 226293348641 122291 258 288 81 -8 +1 +0 +1 +7 0.2
203225 MLB MLEMIN 63% 397360 831648 301004 123 228295355650 127291 258 292 83 -8 +1 +0 +1 +9 0.3
203326 MLB MLEMIN 64% 428388 891749 321075 123 229296358654 129291 257 293 84 -8 +1 +0 +2 +9 0.4
203427 MLB MLEMIN 65% 441399 911749 341115 133 227295355650 128290 258 291 83 -9 +1 +0 +2 +10 0.4
203528 MLB MLEMIN 65% 445404 901748 341134 123 226293350643 125289 258 288 81 -10 +1 -1 +2 +10 0.2
203629 MLB MLEMIN 65% 439399 891748 331134 123 223290344634 121288 268 285 79 -11 +1 -1 +2 +10 -0.0
202821 MLB CTXMIN 34% 2523 4100 260 10 216282316598 99288 248 271 69 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.0
202922 MLB CTXMIN 50% 8275 16311 6211 21 220286329615 108289 267 277 74 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.0
203023 MLB CTXMIN 58% 149135 30612 11382 41 223290339629 116290 267 283 78 -4 +0 +0 +1 +3 0.0
203124 MLB CTXMIN 61% 211191 43824 16532 62 226293348642 122291 258 288 81 -5 +0 +0 +1 +5 0.1
203225 MLB CTXMIN 63% 249225 521025 19623 72 228296355651 127291 258 292 83 -5 +1 +0 +1 +5 0.2
203326 MLB CTXMIN 64% 273247 561125 21693 82 229296358654 129291 258 293 84 -5 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.3
203427 MLB CTXMIN 65% 287260 591126 22723 82 228295356650 128291 258 291 83 -6 +1 +0 +1 +6 0.2
203528 MLB CTXMIN 65% 289262 591126 22743 82 226293351644 125290 268 289 81 -6 +1 -0 +1 +6 0.1
203629 MLB CTXMIN 65% 285258 571125 22733 82 223290345634 121288 268 285 79 -7 +1 -1 +1 +6 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 18501676 376721434 14146820 5214 224292345637 121290 258 288 77 -42 +5 -1 +7 +40 0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 13225512 501647 185 224293345637 121289 258 288 77 -15 +2 -0 +2 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 32792973 6551273056 24882936 9825 220288340628 119285 258 282 77 -70 +9 -2 +11 +66 1.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650589 13025611 491647 195 221288340627 119285 258 282 77 -15 +2 -0 +2 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Blue Jays Red · 116 PAwOBA .340 → .226 (−114)K% 18.1% → 22.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.10%÷0.980×1.220——22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.62%÷0.994×0.700—×1.0086.12%
HBP% /PA1.72%—×0.700—×1.0081.22%
Singles /BIP18.29%÷1.002×0.680×1.034×1.00812.94%
Doubles /BIP12.20%÷0.970×0.600×1.034×1.0087.86%
Triples /BIP2.44%÷1.017×0.600×1.034×1.0081.50%
Home runs /BIP1.22%÷0.957×0.470—×1.0080.60%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 94, 3B 103, K 96, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .340 → .226; ISO .165 → .100; BABIP .329 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Twins · 132 PAwOBA .323 → .215 (−108)K% 22.0% → 26.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.97%÷1.000×1.220——26.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.39%÷1.010×0.700—×1.02210.21%
HBP% /PA1.52%—×0.700—×1.0221.08%
Singles /BIP23.17%÷1.038×0.680×1.018×1.02215.80%
Doubles /BIP6.10%÷1.006×0.600×1.018×1.0223.79%
Triples /BIP2.44%÷1.115×0.600×1.018×1.0221.37%
Home runs /BIP1.22%÷0.939×0.470—×1.0220.62%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 108, 2B 101, 3B 123, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .323 → .215; ISO .108 → .062; BABIP .321 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).