Nestor Urbina — OGILVIE

Nestor Urbina2B DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 19 S/R 5'10" / 168 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 98 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .269 / .299

PA8

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	110	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	121	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	118	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	161	250	229	479	68	249	32	9	224	38	-10	+1	—	—	+3	-0.6
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	31	2	2	0	196	252	308	561	112	266	27	5	249	55	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	118	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	161	250	229	479	68	240	32	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	243	364	351	715	108	321	22	14	331	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	31	2	2	0	196	252	308	561	112	263	27	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	272	348	437	785	165	329	18	9	346	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	117	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	162	250	231	481	68	249	32	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	31	2	2	0	196	252	308	561	112	266	27	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	132	117	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	162	250	231	481	68	249	32	9	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	31	2	2	0	196	252	308	561	112	266	27	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	19	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		279	25	12	260	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	188	170	37	7	2	3	14	50	2	4	1	218	285	335	620	118	282	27	7	271	70	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	323	292	64	13	3	5	24	83	4	7	2	219	287	336	623	116	283	26	7	279	75	-10	+1	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIN	54%	422	382	84	17	3	7	32	108	5	9	2	220	289	335	624	115	285	26	8	284	78	-11	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	488	442	98	19	4	9	37	123	6	10	3	222	291	344	635	122	286	25	8	287	80	-11	+1	+0	+2	+11	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	531	479	107	21	4	10	41	134	6	11	3	223	293	347	639	123	286	25	8	288	81	-12	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	557	502	114	22	5	11	43	140	7	12	3	227	297	357	654	129	286	25	8	289	82	-12	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	571	515	116	23	5	11	44	144	7	12	3	225	295	353	648	128	286	25	8	289	82	-12	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	575	518	117	23	5	11	45	145	7	13	3	226	296	353	650	127	286	25	8	290	82	-12	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	572	515	114	22	4	11	45	145	7	12	3	221	293	344	636	122	286	25	8	289	81	-13	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	564	507	113	22	4	11	45	144	7	12	3	223	295	347	642	124	285	26	8	287	80	-13	+1	-1	+2	+12	0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	555	499	109	21	4	10	44	143	7	11	3	218	291	337	628	118	283	26	8	284	78	-14	+1	-2	+2	+12	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	65	59	13	2	1	1	5	17	1	1	0	220	292	339	631	119	282	26	8	263	70	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	157	142	31	6	1	3	12	41	2	3	1	218	288	338	626	120	283	26	8	270	75	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIN	54%	229	207	46	9	2	4	17	58	3	5	1	222	291	343	634	121	285	25	7	275	78	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	276	250	55	11	2	5	21	70	3	6	1	220	288	340	628	120	286	25	8	278	80	-6	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	300	270	61	12	2	6	23	76	4	6	2	226	296	352	648	126	287	25	8	280	81	-7	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	315	284	64	12	3	6	24	79	4	7	2	225	295	352	647	127	287	25	8	280	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	323	291	66	13	3	6	25	81	4	7	2	227	297	354	651	127	286	25	8	281	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	319	287	65	13	3	6	25	81	4	7	2	226	297	355	653	129	286	25	8	281	82	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	314	282	62	12	2	6	25	80	4	7	2	220	293	340	633	121	286	25	8	280	81	-7	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	302	271	60	12	2	6	24	77	4	6	1	221	294	347	641	125	285	25	8	278	80	-7	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	292	263	57	11	2	5	23	75	4	6	1	217	290	331	620	114	284	26	8	275	78	-8	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2892	2606	580	113	23	54	224	735	37	61	15	223	293	346	639	123	287	25	8	278	78	-68	+6	-2	+10	+63	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	130	25	5	12	50	165	8	14	3	222	292	343	635	121	286	25	8	278	78	-15	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5602	5053	1114	220	45	101	433	1434	69	124	32	220	291	342	633	121	286	26	8	284	78	-128	+11	-4	+19	+116	1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	130	26	5	12	50	166	8	14	4	222	291	345	636	123	287	26	8	284	78	-16	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.5	2,988	55	63	223	289	345	+11	+7	2.8	2.6
/162	664	12	14	+2.4	+1.6	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Urbina (OGILVIE)	19	36→41	32→37	50→55	52	205/269/299	94	279	1	2	27%	7%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43→45	38→30	53→60	41	203/260/286	83	285	4	12	29%	6%	55	-2.0	223/283/291	68	291	2	11	22%	7%	64	-1.3	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	38	-3.2	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	58	-1.7	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	61	-0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2015 · A	19	39→48	37→45	47→55	46	188/255/261	74	254	4	8	27%	8%	48	-2.5	196/259/258	62	280	4	10	29%	7%	48	-2.5	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	50	191/273/255	63	252	3	8	24%	9%	53	-2.1	201/307/293	92	271	5	6	25%	12%	76	-0.4	184/305/272	88	246	5	5	24%	13%	69	-0.3
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	53	-2.1	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	71	-0.8	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Bengie González 2009 · A	19	41→51	34→40	51→50	47	194/264/244	51	272	2	11	28%	8%	47	-2.5	207/258/252	45	280	1	12	25%	6%	46	-2.6	255/307/351	95	309	4	12	18%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Diego Velasquez 2023 · A	19	42→52	34→40	50	44	199/256/250	51	261	2	7	24%	6%	45	-2.7	234/298/318	84	300	6	14	22%	7%	77	-0.3	245/313/315	70	311	3	18	20%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2012 · A	19	43	36→40	47→65	48	203/270/269	66	256	4	16	21%	8%	55	-1.9	209/282/280	71	262	3	24	20%	8%	62	-1.4	212/299/273	61	273	1	34	20%	10%	63	-0.4
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	54	-2.0	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	73	-0.6	224/288/270	46	274	0	22	17%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Cole Tucker 2015 · A	19	44→47	37→45	50→55	45	209/273/283	74	281	5	13	26%	7%	59	-1.6	226/271/302	76	301	4	18	24%	6%	61	-1.5	209/274/322	113	274	9	12	26%	8%	65	-0.7
✕Rosell Herrera 2012 · A	19	42→52	39→45	49→55	43	203/258/285	82	265	6	9	25%	6%	54	-2.0	224/273/308	84	303	7	10	27%	6%	65	-1.2	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Acosta 2019 · A	19	39	37→45	53→55	47	185/259/257	72	250	4	14	26%	8%	49	-2.4	225/287/322	97	319	6	19	29%	7%	74	-0.6	203/263/320	117	308	11	21	36%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Brainer Bonaci 2021 · A	19	43→44	39→45	48→50	43	208/263/292	84	267	6	13	24%	6%	57	-1.8	206/276/304	98	288	7	14	29%	8%	65	-1.2	207/279/313	105	287	9	14	29%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Wilmer Difo 2011 · A	19	39→49	35→45	53→55	43	185/240/246	61	245	2	14	24%	6%	38	-3.2	206/272/279	73	259	3	20	20%	8%	58	-1.7	251/291/356	104	304	7	26	19%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Allan Castro 2022 · A	19	38→44	39→45	51→50	41	184/253/278	94	271	4	6	32%	7%	51	-2.2	195/264/303	108	279	8	11	31%	8%	61	-1.5	202/276/313	110	274	9	14	28%	9%	65	-1.0
✕Geraldo Quintero 2021 · A	19	44→46	38→40	51→60	49	207/277/289	82	253	5	16	20%	7%	63	-1.4	205/271/289	84	272	5	19	25%	7%	60	-1.6	218/285/302	85	288	5	28	24%	7%	66	-0.9
✕Dervy Ventura 2023 · A	19	43→50	36→40	50→55	48	201/279/276	75	282	2	6	28%	9%	60	-1.6	217/294/306	89	287	6	14	24%	9%	73	-0.6	220/305/307	86	295	7	22	25%	10%	74	-0.3
✕Milkar Perez 2021 · A	19	43	39→40	45→40	44	205/274/289	84	285	6	8	29%	8%	61	-1.5	204/297/262	58	312	2	4	31%	11%	65	-1.2	203/294/276	74	305	4	2	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Victor Acosta 2023 · A	19	41→43	40	50	44	198/277/296	98	282	7	15	30%	8%	65	-1.2	188/274/263	75	276	3	11	30%	7%	57	-1.8	177/263/251	74	256	4	13	29%	7%	47	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps