Nestor Urbina — OGILVIE

Nestor Urbina2B DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 19 S/R 5'10" / 168 lbs ROK BB +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 2.9 · 2034

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .281 / .321

PA98

HR2

K%29

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

36↗41

PWR

32↗37

SPD

50↗55

EYE

47↗52

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.7	$26M	+$25M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.8	$28M	+$27M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.9	$29M	+$28M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.7	$28M	+$23M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.5	$27M	+$18M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.2	$24M	+$13M
Totals		$28M		$162M	+$134M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	132	118	19	3	1	1	12	42	2	9	3	.161	.250	.229	.479	.068	.240	32	9	.220	27	-11	+1	+0	+0	+4	-0.6
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	116	107	21	7	1	1	6	31	2	2	0	.196	.252	.308	.561	.112	.263	27	5	.249	49	-7	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	MIN	98	89	19	3	1	2	8	28	1	2	0	.213	.286	.337	.623	.124	.286	29	8	.275	68	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 11%	MIN	188	167	37	7	1	4	17	51	2	4	1	.222	.301	.347	.648	.126	.293	27	9	.297	85	-3	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.3
2028	21	MLB 28%	MIN	323	285	66	12	2	8	31	84	4	8	2	.232	.316	.372	.688	.140	.294	26	10	.309	94	-2	+1	+0	+1	+9	0.9
2029	22	MLB 48%	MIN	422	372	88	16	3	12	42	106	5	10	2	.237	.322	.392	.715	.156	.295	25	10	.317	101	+0	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.5
2030	23	MLB 65%	MIN	488	429	102	18	3	14	50	120	6	11	2	.238	.326	.392	.717	.154	.295	25	10	.323	105	+3	+1	+0	+2	+14	2.0
2031	24	MLB 82%	MIN	531	463	111	20	3	16	56	129	7	12	2	.240	.331	.400	.730	.160	.295	24	11	.327	108	+5	+2	+0	+2	+15	2.4
2032	25	MLB	MIN	557	485	118	21	4	17	60	134	7	12	2	.243	.335	.408	.743	.165	.296	24	11	.330	111	+7	+2	+0	+2	+16	2.7
2033	26	MLB	MIN	571	497	121	21	4	18	62	137	7	13	2	.243	.336	.410	.746	.167	.296	24	11	.332	112	+8	+2	+0	+2	+16	2.8
2034	27	MLB	MIN	575	500	121	21	4	18	63	139	7	13	2	.242	.335	.408	.743	.166	.296	24	11	.332	112	+8	+2	+0	+2	+16	2.9
2035	28	MLB	MIN	572	497	119	21	3	18	63	139	7	12	2	.239	.333	.402	.736	.163	.296	24	11	.331	111	+7	+2	-1	+2	+16	2.7
2036	29	MLB	MIN	564	489	117	21	3	17	63	139	7	11	1	.239	.335	.399	.733	.160	.295	25	11	.329	110	+6	+2	-1	+2	+16	2.5
2037	30	MLB	MIN	555	481	114	20	3	17	62	139	7	11	1	.237	.333	.397	.730	.160	.294	25	11	.325	107	+5	+2	-2	+2	+16	2.2
2038	31	MLB	MIN	541	469	110	19	3	16	60	137	7	10	0	.235	.330	.390	.720	.156	.292	25	11	.322	104	+3	+2	-3	+2	+15	2.0
2039	32	MLB	MIN	523	454	105	18	3	15	58	135	6	9	0	.231	.326	.383	.710	.152	.291	26	11	.317	101	+0	+2	-4	+2	+15	1.6
2040	33	MLB	MIN	494	431	97	17	3	13	54	131	6	9	0	.225	.320	.369	.689	.144	.289	27	11	.311	97	-2	+2	-4	+2	+14	1.2
2041	34	MLB	MIN	447	390	85	15	2	11	49	123	5	8	0	.218	.313	.351	.664	.133	.287	28	11	.305	92	-4	+2	-5	+2	+13	0.7
2042	35	MLB	MIN	393	343	73	12	2	9	43	112	4	7	0	.213	.308	.338	.646	.125	.285	28	11	.297	86	-6	+1	-6	+1	+11	0.2
2043	36	MLB	MIN	333	290	60	10	2	7	36	98	4	6	0	.207	.303	.328	.631	.121	.282	29	11	.288	79	-8	+1	-6	+1	+9	-0.3
2044	37	MLB	MIN	269	236	47	8	1	5	28	82	3	5	0	.199	.292	.305	.597	.106	.278	30	10	.278	71	-9	+1	-7	+1	+8	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8692	7592	1750	310	52	239	923	2236	106	184	22	.231	.322	.379	.702	.149	.293	26	11	.315	100	-4	+28	-38	+31	+246	26.8
/ 162G	—			650	568	131	23	4	18	69	167	8	14	2	.231	.322	.380	.703	.150	.293	26	11	.315	100	-0	+2	-3	+2	+18	2.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Twins	132	111	27	5	2	1	19	29	2	9	3	.243	.364	.351	.715	.108	.321	22	14	.331	111	+2	+1	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	116	103	28	10	2	1	10	21	2	2	0	.272	.348	.437	.785	.165	.329	18	9	.346	123	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Urbina (OGILVIE)	19	36→41	32→37	50→55	52	.210/.281/.321	.111	.286	2	2	29%	8%	68	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Bryan Rincon 2023 · A	19	43→42	45→40	53→65	45	.213/.281/.336	.123	.279	13	11	28%	8%	72	-0.2	.194/.288/.298	.104	.270	9	21	29%	10%	66	-0.6	.165/.260/.259	.093	.238	9	30	32%	10%	44	-1.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	40→50	41→45	56→55	44	.195/.266/.289	.094	.272	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	.217/.283/.315	.098	.299	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	.253/.315/.362	.109	.325	7	28	23%	8%	88	+0.8
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	42	42→45	47→50	43	.205/.277/.309	.104	.271	9	8	27%	6%	64	-0.8	.224/.284/.326	.102	.290	5	11	24%	5%	70	-0.3	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	39→41	42→50	53→55	44	.191/.270/.293	.102	.283	10	11	34%	8%	56	-1.3	.199/.283/.318	.119	.317	11	15	37%	9%	69	-0.4	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jeremy Arocho 2018 · A	19	43	38→30	52→60	41	.205/.262/.288	.083	.287	4	12	29%	6%	50	-1.7	.223/.282/.290	.067	.291	2	11	22%	7%	59	-1.1	.224/.333/.269	.045	.305	1	34	23%	14%	74	-0.0
✕Jon Del Campo 2007 · A	19	43	38→45	45→55	46	.207/.270/.286	.079	.275	6	6	26%	8%	53	-1.5	.206/.258/.287	.081	.298	4	5	30%	6%	48	-1.9	.267/.300/.379	.112	.337	12	18	24%	3%	90	+0.6
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	.209/.268/.279	.070	.271	5	6	24%	7%	50	-1.7	.224/.289/.327	.103	.275	7	5	20%	8%	72	-0.2	.253/.306/.321	.068	.288	2	0	12%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Manuel Guzman 2014 · A	19	48	37→45	47→55	50	.226/.292/.301	.075	.272	4	14	18%	8%	66	-0.6	.220/.286/.278	.058	.274	2	18	19%	8%	58	-1.2	.238/.306/.305	.068	.287	4	15	17%	9%	69	-0.2
●Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→45	52→50	47	.212/.286/.285	.072	.288	5	12	26%	8%	60	-1.0	.241/.293/.346	.105	.309	7	11	23%	6%	78	+0.2	.255/.302/.371	.117	.316	8	12	21%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	47	39→45	51→50	42	.223/.278/.315	.092	.300	5	13	26%	6%	64	-0.8	.211/.257/.296	.085	.311	4	11	32%	5%	50	-1.8	.178/.220/.246	.068	.283	3	12	36%	4%	17	-1.1
✕Victor Acosta 2023 · A	19	41→43	40	50	44	.198/.278/.293	.095	.282	7	15	30%	8%	59	-1.1	.190/.276/.266	.076	.276	3	11	30%	8%	53	-1.5	.181/.272/.246	.065	.263	2	12	29%	7%	42	-1.5
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	47	.219/.281/.317	.098	.274	8	11	23%	8%	66	-0.6	.241/.317/.373	.132	.280	15	17	19%	9%	97	+1.5	.233/.312/.369	.136	.267	17	23	19%	9%	90	+0.8
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	.199/.262/.281	.083	.258	5	7	24%	6%	50	-1.8	.211/.287/.284	.073	.267	5	9	21%	9%	61	-1.0	.221/.317/.274	.053	.274	5	10	19%	11%	69	-0.2
✕Juan Brito 2021 · A	19	47→48	41→50	53→45	48	.227/.287/.331	.103	.273	8	13	20%	7%	72	-0.2	.229/.306/.353	.124	.285	12	10	22%	9%	86	+0.8	.226/.311/.371	.145	.266	15	9	20%	10%	91	+1.0
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→40	41→50	46→40	44	.207/.262/.297	.091	.272	9	9	27%	7%	53	-1.5	.205/.256/.301	.096	.278	8	7	27%	6%	51	-1.7	.210/.263/.325	.115	.276	10	3	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Ramón Cabrera 2009 · A	19	44→54	40	51→40	49	.210/.275/.306	.096	.257	7	7	21%	8%	61	-1.0	.232/.280/.319	.087	.274	5	5	16%	6%	66	-0.6	.274/.327/.360	.086	.313	3	3	13%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Milkar Perez 2021 · A	19	43	39→40	45→40	44	.205/.274/.289	.084	.285	6	8	29%	8%	56	-1.3	.204/.295/.263	.059	.310	2	4	31%	11%	59	-1.1	.202/.294/.275	.073	.305	4	2	31%	10%	60	-0.6
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2022 · A	19	47→40	41→40	51→55	43	.227/.272/.336	.109	.285	7	11	23%	6%	66	-0.6	.211/.271/.300	.089	.295	6	18	28%	7%	57	-1.2	.209/.275/.305	.095	.286	7	29	27%	7%	58	-0.6
●Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	45→54	37→40	51→65	44	.205/.292/.286	.080	.293	3	15	28%	7%	64	-0.8	.210/.299/.284	.074	.292	3	18	26%	10%	66	-0.6	.238/.354/.331	.093	.320	9	44	25%	14%	100	+1.2
✕Juan Matheus 2023 · A	19	42→46	41→40	50→55	53	.198/.304/.305	.107	.295	7	15	32%	12%	75	-0.0	.207/.301/.301	.094	.296	6	20	29%	11%	72	-0.2	.211/.291/.296	.085	.285	5	23	25%	9%	64	-0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)