Manuel Baez

C DSL Mariners

Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 192 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	ROKSEA	28	.083/.214/.083	0	0	-40	—	.040/.143/.040
2025	20	ROKSEA	42	.161/.381/.226	0	0	26	—	.091/.286/.121
2026	21	ROKSEA	57	.239/.386/.283	0	0	28	—	.143/.263/.163
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBSEA	167	.188/.269/.252	1	1	51	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBSEA	28	.191/.272/.262	0	0	56	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%68

BB%53

wOBA40

wRC+38

K%29

Whiff%29

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .267 / .250

PA37

HR0

K%34

BB%8

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	57	46	11	2	0	0	9	15	2	0	0	239	386	283	669	43	355	26	16	324	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		111	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	176	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	226	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	57	46	11	2	0	0	9	15	2	0	0	239	386	283	669	43	355	26	16	324	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	16	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		126	57	4	109	-40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	33	3	1	0	0	6	16	3	0	0	91	286	121	407	30	180	38	14	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	57	49	7	1	0	0	6	18	2	0	0	143	263	163	426	20	230	32	11	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	167	149	28	5	1	1	13	56	3	1	1	188	269	252	521	64	289	34	8	244	51	-10	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	84	75	15	3	0	1	7	28	2	1	0	192	274	265	539	73	290	33	8	250	56	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	191	272	262	534	71	288	32	7	248	56	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	28	25	5	1	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	200	286	240	526	40	312	32	7	248	33	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	116	23	0	0	46	209	23	0	0	200	285	240	524	40	313	32	7	248	33	-34	+0	+0	+12	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	248	215	32	6	0	1	23	90	10	1	0	149	262	191	453	42	250	36	9	217	33	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	85	16	0	3	60	236	26	3	0	151	263	195	458	44	252	36	9	217	33	-35	+1	+0	+12	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Mariners · 57 PAwOBA .317 → .210 (−107)K% 26.3% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	32.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.79%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.975	10.78%
HBP% /PA	3.51%	—	×0.700	—	×0.975	2.39%
Singles /BIP	29.03%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.975	19.25%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.975	3.77%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.975	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.975	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 18.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .317 → .210; ISO .043 → .026; BABIP .355 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Mariners · 42 PAwOBA .305 → .207 (−98)K% 31.0% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.95%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	37.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.05%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×0.985	13.19%
HBP% /PA	7.14%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	4.92%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.986	×0.680	—	×0.985	11.32%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷0.989	×0.600	—	×0.985	6.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .305 → .207; ISO .065 → .040; BABIP .278 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Mariners · 28 PAwOBA .164 → .109 (−54)K% 46.4% → 56.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	46.43%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	56.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×0.995	5.31%
HBP% /PA	7.14%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.97%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.976	×0.680	—	×0.995	12.61%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.934	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 87, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .164 → .109; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .182 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).