Manuel Baez — OGILVIE

Manuel BaezC DSL Mariners

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 192 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 5 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†43

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .200 / .200

PA5

HR0

K%40

BB%7

BABIP333

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	19	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		167	68	4	104	-62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	34	3	1	0	0	5	19	3	0	0	88	262	118	380	29	200	45	12	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	ROK	SEA	—	46	41	7	1	0	0	3	14	2	0	0	171	261	195	456	24	259	30	7	223	29	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
YTD	21	ROK	SEA	—	46	39	10	2	0	0	5	10	2	0	0	256	370	308	677	51	345	22	11	321	104	+0	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.2
ROS	21	ROK	SEA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		287	40	0	241	43	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
ROS	21	MLB	SEA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		284	—	—	222	28	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	ROK	SEA	—	46	42	7	1	0	0	3	14	2	0	0	167	261	190	451	24	250	30	7	223	29	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
TOT	21	ROK	SEA	—	51	46	8	1	0	0	3	16	2	0	0	174	255	196	451	22	267	31	6	225	30	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	SEA	34%	135	121	23	4	1	1	10	44	3	1	0	190	269	264	533	74	290	33	7	253	52	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	SEA	48%	264	237	47	9	1	3	20	84	5	2	1	198	275	283	558	84	291	32	8	261	58	-13	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	SEA	53%	358	320	66	12	2	5	28	112	7	3	1	206	285	303	588	97	293	31	8	266	62	-15	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.1
2030	25	MLB	SEA	55%	415	372	76	14	2	6	32	129	8	3	1	204	282	301	583	97	293	31	8	269	64	-17	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.3
2027	22	MLB	SEA	34%	46	42	7	1	0	0	3	15	1	0	0	167	239	190	430	24	288	33	7	236	38	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	SEA	48%	128	114	23	4	1	2	10	41	3	1	0	202	283	307	590	105	289	32	8	244	45	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
2029	24	MLB	SEA	53%	189	168	34	6	1	3	15	59	4	1	1	202	283	304	587	101	290	31	8	249	49	-11	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2030	25	MLB	SEA	55%	227	202	40	7	1	3	18	70	5	2	1	198	280	287	567	89	290	31	8	252	51	-12	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	590	527	104	18	3	8	46	185	13	4	2	197	279	288	567	91	285	31	8	248	48	-35	+0	+0	+11	+17	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	115	20	3	9	51	204	14	4	2	198	279	289	568	91	286	31	8	248	48	-38	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.8
Career	—			—	1247	1114	217	40	6	15	96	409	28	9	3	195	275	282	557	87	290	33	8	259	56	-61	+1	+0	+22	+35	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	113	21	3	8	50	213	15	5	2	194	276	282	558	88	289	33	8	259	56	-32	+0	+0	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-14	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	96	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	641	8	5	203	278	296	+11	+12	0.1	0.1
	/162	664	9	5	203	278	296	+11.9	+12.4	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Baez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	174/255/196	22	267	0	0	31%	6%	30	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	190/271/255	65	295	3	5	34%	10%	46	-2.0	197/283/279	82	287	5	4	30%	10%	58	-1.2	185/278/265	80	263	6	2	29%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→55	44→45	37	185/262/263	79	305	7	6	39%	6%	46	-2.0	203/269/331	128	302	14	5	36%	6%	66	-0.6	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	173/222/254	81	276	7	4	39%	5%	24	-3.5	183/241/264	81	308	8	5	40%	6%	36	-2.7	115/169/126	12	224	0	0	46%	5%	-33	-1.4
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2007 · A	21	40	36→45	45→50	36	190/231/257	67	286	3	5	34%	5%	28	-3.2	196/248/279	83	269	7	5	28%	6%	42	-2.3	226/262/325	99	269	14	12	22%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Justin Twine 2017 · A	21	36→31	36→45	45→50	28	175/214/240	65	291	3	7	40%	3%	17	-4.0	197/236/278	81	295	6	9	34%	3%	37	-2.7	216/252/313	97	321	8	14	34%	3%	50	-1.0
✕Miguel Jerez 2018 · A	20	36	37→60	47→40	38	175/233/245	70	281	4	5	37%	7%	27	-3.3	175/239/304	129	273	16	4	40%	6%	46	-2.0	137/211/276	139	200	19	1	42%	7%	26	-1.3
✕Will Banfield 2021 · A	21	34→35	40→50	47→30	34	174/220/260	86	266	8	3	37%	5%	26	-3.4	180/221/294	114	261	12	3	35%	4%	35	-2.8	194/236/296	102	269	12	0	32%	4%	39	-1.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Ali Solis 2009 · A	21	38	38→45	47→30	40	181/244/258	78	284	5	4	36%	7%	36	-2.7	197/237/317	120	282	14	3	34%	4%	48	-1.9	227/249/361	134	309	15	1	31%	2%	60	-0.5
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	36→33	37→50	47→30	38	174/239/249	74	275	4	6	36%	6%	31	-3.0	194/253/302	108	317	9	3	39%	7%	51	-1.7	172/240/299	127	285	15	1	43%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Adam Howard 2007 · A	21	37	35→50	50→40	38	179/229/240	61	268	2	6	32%	5%	24	-3.6	196/234/301	105	282	12	4	34%	5%	42	-2.3	184/215/296	112	252	16	2	34%	4%	30	-1.0
✕Adam Zebrowski 2022 · A	21	44→35	39→45	49→40	38	205/266/291	86	316	5	7	35%	6%	53	-1.5	195/265/316	121	293	13	4	36%	8%	60	-1.0	184/236/312	128	274	18	2	38%	5%	44	-1.1
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	35	-2.8	207/260/302	95	287	7	4	29%	6%	53	-1.5	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	40	41→50	48→40	35	192/245/289	98	307	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.2	207/273/364	157	295	18	6	35%	7%	76	+0.1	199/268/360	160	283	18	5	35%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	300	6	6	37%	6%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	301	9	13	31%	7%	61	-1.0	203/266/291	88	284	10	16	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Narbe Cruz 2022 · A	21	43	37→40	45	41	202/278/276	74	302	5	7	32%	7%	56	-1.3	208/260/292	84	290	6	6	29%	5%	51	-1.7	208/260/295	87	295	8	6	31%	5%	47	-0.8