Manuel Baez — OGILVIE

Manuel BaezC DSL Mariners

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 192 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .200 / .200

PA5

HR0

K%40

BB%8

BABIP288

ISO68

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	19	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-1	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	20	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	19	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		153	68	4	101	-45	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	34	3	1	0	0	5	19	3	0	0	88	262	118	380	29	220	45	12	205	25	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	19	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		167	68	4	101	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	28	24	2	0	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	83	214	83	298		182	46	7	167	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	34	3	1	0	0	5	19	3	0	0	88	262	118	380	29	200	45	12	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	42	31	5	2	0	0	8	13	3	0	0	161	381	226	607	65	278	31	19	311	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	19	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		153	68	4	101	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	34	3	1	0	0	5	19	3	0	0	88	262	118	380	29	220	45	12	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	28	25	1	0	0	0	1	19	2	0	0	40	143	40	183		153	68	4	101	-45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	42	34	3	1	0	0	5	19	3	0	0	88	262	118	380	29	220	45	12	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	SEA	—	57	49	8	1	0	0	6	22	2	0	0	163	281	184	464	20	296	39	11	219	34	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK RAW	SEA	—	57	46	11	2	0	0	9	15	2	0	0	239	386	283	669	43	355	26	16	324	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	ROK MLE	SEA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		291	40	0	241	49	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	ROK MLE	SEA	—	62	54	9	1	0	0	6	24	2	0	0	167	274	185	459	19	300	39	10	221	36	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	135	120	23	4	1	1	11	46	3	1	0	192	276	267	543	75	291	34	8	252	57	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	264	235	45	8	1	3	22	86	5	2	1	191	275	272	547	81	292	33	8	260	62	-12	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SEA	53%	358	318	65	12	2	5	30	115	7	3	1	204	287	302	589	97	293	32	8	266	66	-14	+0	+0	+6	+8	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	415	370	74	13	2	6	34	132	8	3	1	200	282	295	576	95	293	32	8	269	68	-16	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	450	402	82	15	2	7	37	144	8	3	1	204	284	303	588	100	293	32	8	270	69	-17	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	466	415	83	15	2	7	39	149	9	4	1	200	283	296	579	96	293	32	8	270	69	-17	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	SEA	55%	472	420	84	15	2	7	40	152	9	3	1	200	284	295	579	95	292	32	8	269	68	-18	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	SEA	53%	469	417	83	15	2	7	40	152	9	3	1	199	283	295	578	96	291	32	9	267	67	-18	+0	-1	+8	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	46	41	7	1	0	0	4	16	1	0	0	171	261	195	456	24	289	35	9	236	57	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	128	114	23	4	1	2	11	42	2	1	0	202	283	307	590	105	290	33	9	244	62	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SEA	53%	189	167	34	6	1	3	16	61	4	1	1	204	289	305	594	102	291	32	8	250	66	-8	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	227	202	40	7	1	3	19	72	4	2	1	198	280	287	567	89	291	32	8	253	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	250	222	45	8	1	4	21	80	5	2	1	203	286	302	588	99	291	32	8	254	69	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	256	227	45	8	1	4	22	82	5	2	1	198	283	295	579	97	290	32	9	254	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	SEA	55%	258	229	46	8	1	4	22	83	5	2	1	201	285	297	582	96	290	32	9	253	68	-10	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	SEA	53%	250	222	44	8	1	4	21	81	5	2	1	198	282	297	580	99	289	32	8	251	67	-10	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1604	1424	284	50	7	24	136	517	31	12	6	199	283	295	578	96	292	32	8	252	65	-63	+0	-1	+29	+35	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	115	20	3	10	55	210	13	5	2	199	284	296	580	97	292	32	8	252	65	-25	+0	-0	+12	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3104	2761	544	98	14	43	259	1016	63	22	7	197	281	289	570	92	292	33	8	265	65	-119	+2	-2	+54	+66	0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	114	21	3	9	54	213	13	5	1	197	280	291	571	93	292	33	8	265	65	-26	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.5	1,656	25	12	202	281	299	+30	+20	1.0	1.1
/162	664	10	5	+11.9	+8.0	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Baez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	181/266/244	63	291	0	0	35%	8%	49	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→50	44→45	37	186/262/264	78	301	7	6	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/269/325	121	300	13	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	40→45	48→30	38	195/255/282	87	294	7	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/262	84	256	7	3	32%	6%	40	-3.0	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Payton Henry 2018 · A	21	39→31	42→45	46→30	38	189/254/293	104	302	8	3	38%	7%	55	-1.9	184/249/284	100	318	10	2	43%	6%	51	-2.2	242/289/361	119	320	16	1	29%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	174/222/255	81	277	7	4	39%	5%	34	-3.5	184/241/265	81	306	8	5	40%	6%	44	-2.8	141/191/216	75	260	9	0	47%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	189/270/254	65	297	3	5	34%	10%	53	-2.1	192/278/273	81	283	5	4	31%	10%	60	-1.6	178/270/257	78	255	6	2	30%	10%	51	-0.9
✕Miguel Jerez 2018 · A	20	36	37→60	47→40	38	175/233/245	70	281	4	5	37%	7%	36	-3.4	176/241/304	128	277	16	4	40%	7%	53	-2.1	137/212/274	137	203	19	1	42%	7%	35	-1.3
✕Alex Jackson 2016 · A	20	38→37	38→55	45→30	34	181/238/262	82	294	5	5	38%	5%	42	-2.9	193/251/322	129	292	14	3	37%	5%	61	-1.5	191/262/354	163	266	20	2	35%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Ali Solis 2009 · A	21	38	38→45	47→30	40	181/244/258	78	284	5	4	36%	7%	43	-2.8	198/238/312	114	281	12	3	33%	4%	53	-2.1	230/253/350	120	309	12	1	29%	2%	64	-0.6
✕Emilio King 2011 · A	21	37	36→45	45→40	37	178/245/248	70	273	3	6	34%	5%	42	-2.9	214/256/307	93	316	7	4	33%	4%	58	-1.7	250/279/366	116	337	11	3	28%	2%	76	-0.3
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	36→33	37→45	47→30	38	174/239/249	74	275	4	6	36%	6%	39	-3.1	196/254/306	110	314	10	3	38%	7%	58	-1.7	173/241/298	125	280	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Elio Prado 2023 · A	21	42→38	36→40	46→50	45	196/282/260	64	285	4	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	195/265/290	95	267	9	12	29%	7%	59	-1.7	182/251/273	91	250	9	14	30%	7%	47	-1.4
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Justin Twine 2017 · A	21	37→32	37→40	45→50	29	181/219/250	69	290	4	7	38%	3%	31	-3.7	199/238/279	80	295	5	9	33%	3%	45	-2.7	214/250/302	88	318	6	14	33%	3%	53	-1.2
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2007 · A	21	40	36→40	45→50	36	190/231/257	67	286	3	5	34%	5%	36	-3.3	196/248/279	83	269	7	5	28%	6%	49	-2.4	204/246/286	82	258	10	12	25%	5%	47	-0.7
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	42	-2.9	207/259/301	94	287	7	4	29%	6%	58	-1.7	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Adam Zebrowski 2022 · A	21	44→35	39→50	49→40	38	206/267/292	86	316	5	7	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/262/310	120	286	13	4	36%	8%	62	-1.4	188/241/319	130	273	18	2	37%	5%	53	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps