Rafael Flores — OGILVIE

Rafael FloresSS FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 130 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .287 / .316

PA130

HR2

K%25

BB%7

BABIP277

ISO103

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 62

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER62

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$12M	+$12M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.6	$12M	+$12M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.6	$11M	+$11M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+2.5	$10M	+$8M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+2.3	$9M	+$6M
2037	Arb-3	$10M	+2.0	$7M	+$4M
Totals		$26M		$61M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	162	36	6	2	0	13	53	11	19	4	222	323	284	607	62	330	28	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	138	23	3	1	2	16	43	18	12	2	167	331	246	578	80	219	25	9	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	TOR	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		273	25	6	193	6	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
YTD	19	ROK	TOR	—	16	15	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	267	312	267	579		333	19	6	270	65	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	19	ROK	TOR	0%	130	117	25	4	1	2	9	33	3	2	0	214	287	316	603	103	275	25	7	275	69	-5	+0	-1	+1	+4	0.0
ROS	19	MLB	TOR	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		276	—	—	259	56	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	TOR	—	16	16	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	188	250	188	438		250	25	6	193	6	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK	TOR	—	146	132	28	4	1	2	10	37	3	3	0	212	283	303	586	91	277	25	7	266	62	-6	+1	-1	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	230	206	46	8	2	5	17	57	5	3	1	223	298	354	653	131	279	25	7	291	81	-5	+0	-2	+2	+7	0.3
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	356	318	72	12	2	9	27	87	8	5	1	226	303	362	665	135	281	24	8	302	89	-4	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	446	399	92	15	3	13	34	108	10	5	1	231	307	381	688	150	283	24	8	310	95	-2	+1	-3	+5	+13	1.3
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	506	450	106	18	3	16	39	122	12	6	1	236	313	396	709	160	284	24	8	316	100	+0	+1	-3	+5	+14	1.8
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	545	485	116	19	4	18	43	131	12	6	1	239	317	406	723	167	286	24	8	321	104	+2	+1	-4	+6	+15	2.1
2032	25	MLB	TOR	57%	568	505	122	20	4	20	45	136	13	6	1	242	320	416	736	174	286	24	8	325	107	+4	+1	-4	+6	+16	2.4
2033	26	MLB	TOR	56%	580	516	124	20	4	21	46	139	13	6	1	240	318	417	735	176	286	24	8	327	109	+6	+1	-4	+6	+16	2.6
2034	27	MLB	TOR	55%	583	518	125	20	4	21	47	140	13	6	1	241	320	417	737	176	286	24	8	328	109	+6	+1	-4	+6	+17	2.6
2035	28	MLB	TOR	55%	580	515	124	20	4	21	47	140	13	6	1	241	320	417	737	177	286	24	8	327	108	+5	+1	-5	+6	+16	2.5
2036	29	MLB	TOR	53%	571	507	121	19	4	21	46	139	13	6	1	239	318	416	734	178	285	24	8	325	107	+4	+1	-5	+6	+16	2.3
2037	30	MLB	TOR	53%	561	497	118	19	3	20	46	138	13	5	1	237	318	408	727	171	284	25	8	322	105	+3	+1	-6	+6	+16	2.0
2038	31	MLB	TOR	52%	548	486	113	18	3	19	45	136	12	5	1	233	313	399	712	167	282	25	8	318	102	+1	+1	-7	+6	+16	1.7
2039	32	MLB	TOR	52%	530	470	108	17	3	18	43	134	12	5	1	230	310	394	704	164	279	25	8	313	98	-1	+1	-7	+6	+15	1.3
2040	33	MLB	TOR	52%	500	445	100	15	3	16	40	129	11	4	1	225	304	380	684	155	275	26	8	307	93	-4	+0	-8	+5	+14	0.8
2041	34	MLB	TOR	47%	453	404	89	13	3	14	36	120	10	4	1	220	300	371	671	151	270	26	8	298	86	-7	+0	-8	+5	+13	0.3
2042	35	MLB	TOR	43%	398	355	74	10	2	12	31	108	9	3	1	208	289	349	638	141	264	27	8	289	79	-9	+0	-8	+4	+11	-0.2
2043	36	MLB	TOR	34%	338	302	61	8	2	9	26	94	7	2	0	202	281	331	612	129	258	28	8	278	71	-11	+0	-9	+4	+10	-0.6
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	79	71	17	3	1	2	6	20	2	1	0	239	316	394	711	155	280	25	8	275	68	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	172	153	35	6	1	4	13	42	4	2	0	229	306	359	665	131	283	24	8	285	77	-5	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	242	215	50	8	2	7	19	59	6	3	1	233	312	386	699	153	285	24	8	294	83	-5	+0	-2	+3	+7	0.3
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	286	255	60	10	2	9	22	69	7	3	1	235	313	396	709	161	286	24	8	300	88	-4	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.6
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	308	274	66	11	2	10	24	74	7	3	1	241	318	405	723	164	287	24	8	305	92	-3	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.7
2032	25	MLB	TOR	57%	321	286	68	11	2	11	25	77	7	3	1	238	314	406	720	168	287	24	8	309	95	-2	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.9
2033	26	MLB	TOR	56%	328	291	70	11	2	12	26	78	8	3	1	241	320	416	736	175	288	24	8	311	97	-1	+0	-2	+4	+9	1.0
2034	27	MLB	TOR	55%	323	287	69	11	2	12	26	77	7	3	1	240	319	418	737	178	287	24	8	312	97	-1	+0	-2	+3	+9	1.0
2035	28	MLB	TOR	55%	318	282	69	11	2	12	26	77	7	3	1	245	324	426	749	181	287	24	8	311	96	-1	+0	-3	+3	+9	0.9
2036	29	MLB	TOR	53%	305	270	65	10	2	11	25	74	7	3	1	241	321	415	736	174	286	24	8	309	95	-2	+0	-3	+3	+9	0.8
2037	30	MLB	TOR	53%	295	262	62	10	2	10	24	72	7	3	1	237	317	405	722	168	286	24	8	307	93	-2	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.6
2038	31	MLB	TOR	52%	286	255	60	9	2	10	23	71	6	3	1	235	313	404	717	169	283	25	8	303	90	-3	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.5
2039	32	MLB	TOR	52%	275	245	57	9	2	9	22	69	6	2	0	233	311	396	707	163	280	25	8	298	86	-4	+0	-4	+3	+8	0.3
2040	33	MLB	TOR	52%	259	230	52	8	2	8	21	67	6	2	0	226	307	383	690	157	277	26	8	291	81	-6	+0	-4	+3	+7	0.1
2041	34	MLB	TOR	47%	214	190	42	6	1	7	17	57	5	2	0	221	302	374	676	153	271	27	8	283	75	-6	+0	-4	+2	+6	-0.1
2042	35	MLB	TOR	43%	170	151	32	4	1	5	13	46	4	1	0	212	292	351	643	139	266	27	8	274	68	-6	+0	-4	+2	+5	-0.3
2043	36	MLB	TOR	34%	114	102	21	3	1	3	9	32	2	1	0	206	283	343	626	137	260	28	8	264	60	-5	+0	-3	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4295	3820	895	141	29	142	341	1061	98	41	10	234	313	398	711	164	285	25	8	300	88	-59	+4	-44	+46	+122	7.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	134	21	4	21	52	161	15	6	2	232	312	391	703	159	283	25	8	300	88	-9	+0	-7	+7	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	8787	7795	1795	284	57	277	696	2187	218	116	22	230	311	388	699	158	282	25	8	312	97	-34	+14	-89	+94	+249	24.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	132	21	4	20	51	162	16	9	2	229	309	383	692	154	281	25	8	312	97	-2	+1	-7	+7	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	129	+6	+2	—	—	+5	1.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	145	+9	+2	—	—	+5	1.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,441	146	45	233	308	395	+44	-30	16.6	13.6
	/162	664	22	7	233	308	395	+6.6	-4.5	2.5	pk7: 11
#4Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Stephen Vogtlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,571 PA	9	2,571	82	5	241	303	410	+36	-11	9.3	9.4
	/162	664	21	1	241	303	410	+9.2	-2.8	2.4	pk7: 9
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Flores (OGILVIE)	19	37	62	35	45	212/283/303	91	277	2	3	25%	7%	62	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Luis Campusano 2018 · A	19	43→53	41→50	41→30	44	213/267/308	95	273	10	4	25%	6%	58	-1.2	251/303/368	117	300	12	2	20%	6%	89	+0.9	264/328/432	168	297	22	1	19%	8%	113	+1.5
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	72	-0.2	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	56	-1.3	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	41→43	45→55	44→40	43	204/283/326	122	290	12	5	32%	8%	71	-0.3	195/273/328	133	307	15	4	39%	8%	67	-0.5	202/290/390	188	286	26	2	37%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Eric Wood 2013 · A	20	44→48	43→55	42→45	43	217/276/331	113	284	10	6	27%	6%	68	-0.5	210/257/294	84	301	5	4	30%	5%	50	-1.8	218/275/390	173	279	21	6	29%	6%	81	+0.2
●Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	44→54	42→45	37→40	44	216/277/321	104	275	9	3	25%	7%	66	-0.6	239/305/344	105	301	8	3	22%	7%	84	+0.6	231/336/345	114	301	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.8
✕Elias Díaz 2010 · A	19	42→52	41→50	42→45	44	204/265/299	95	266	8	5	26%	7%	55	-1.4	186/235/263	77	243	5	4	25%	5%	32	-3.0	245/304/378	133	272	15	0	16%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Raul Juarez 2017 · A	19	42	41→45	42→40	41	208/273/305	97	268	9	6	25%	5%	61	-1.0	204/257/279	75	279	6	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	180/221/220	41	250	4	2	29%	3%	13	-0.9
✕Jesús Báez 2023 · A	18	39→35	45→55	44→45	44	197/265/314	117	266	13	9	30%	8%	59	-1.1	203/264/335	132	259	15	9	27%	7%	65	-0.7	213/269/389	177	241	26	8	24%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Armando Sierra 2023 · A	19	46	41→45	43→40	47	225/288/323	98	278	9	4	22%	7%	71	-0.3	214/269/315	101	304	9	4	31%	6%	60	-1.0	191/241/289	98	292	10	0	37%	6%	39	-0.5
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	69	-0.4	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	40→45	41→55	46→55	40	199/248/293	95	266	8	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	209/269/336	127	287	13	8	30%	7%	66	-0.6	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→42	42→50	44→50	45	227/318/334	107	303	8	7	26%	7%	88	+0.9	214/310/343	129	287	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.9	219/307/369	150	281	18	13	27%	8%	90	+0.9
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	85	+0.7	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	72	-0.2	209/262/317	108	250	12	1	21%	4%	55	-0.3
●Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	48→50	43→55	39→45	48	232/293/350	118	281	10	5	21%	7%	80	+0.4	229/290/342	113	274	9	7	19%	7%	77	+0.1	243/303/403	161	276	17	6	19%	6%	96	+1.0
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
●Raudy Read 2013 · A	19	37→47	45→55	42→45	41	188/233/309	121	213	13	4	20%	4%	45	-2.1	199/241/294	95	237	9	5	20%	4%	43	-2.2	239/293/443	205	283	27	1	26%	6%	104	+0.9
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2018 · A	20	50→44	43→55	40→45	44	245/288/356	111	285	9	4	18%	5%	79	+0.3	227/267/356	129	268	15	7	21%	4%	71	-0.3	216/261/385	169	243	24	1	23%	4%	74	-0.0
✕Adinso Reyes 2021 · A	19	46	43→45	41→40	38	224/269/334	110	299	10	5	28%	4%	66	-0.6	178/231/282	104	339	12	4	48%	5%	37	-2.7	146/199/242	96	289	13	2	52%	5%	10	-1.4