Rafael Flores

SS FCL Blue Jays
Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#722ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKTOR189.281/.409/.35901951—.188/.301/.231
202518ROKDSL Blue Jays…175.256/.442/.35721255—.154/.331/.213
202619ROKTOR16.267/.312/.2670117—.200/.250/.200
2027PROJMLE20MLBTOR148.208/.288/.29423670.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBTOR26.216/.296/.3200076-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB22MLBTOR83.222/.301/.34221830.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk
Whiff%90
wOBA82
wRC+81
Z-Con%80
Speed80
K%78
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj PA
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .286 / .291
PA28
HR0
K%25
BB%8
ISO86
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +0.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.30.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.7$2M+$1M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.6$1M+$0.9M
2036Arb-1$2M+0.5$1M+$0.2M
2037Arb-2$3M+0.3$0.6M+$0.0M (cut)
2038Arb-3$7M———
Totals $5M $6M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Blue Jays — 189153 43820 223511 194 281409359768 78364 1912 353 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175129 33512 252818 122 256442357798 101304 1614 374 55 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Blue Jays — 1615 4000 130 10 267312267579 333 196 270 17 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 189160 30510 154411 194 188301231532 44251 238 244 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175136 21311 183518 122 154331213545 59180 2010 250 55 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1615 3000 140 10 200250200450 275 256 194 17 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 189160 30510 154411 194 188301231532 44259 238 244 51 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Blue Jays — 189153 43820 223511 194 281409359768 78364 1912 353 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175136 21311 183518 122 154331213545 59194 2010 250 55 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175129 33512 252818 122 256442357798 101304 1614 374 55 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1615 3000 140 10 200250200450 273 256 194 17 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Blue Jays — 1615 4000 130 10 267312267579 333 196 270 17 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 189161 30510 154411 194 186301230531 43251 238 244 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175137 21311 183518 122 153331212543 58180 2010 250 55 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1615 3000 140 10 200250200450 275 256 194 17 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays — 189161 30510 154411 194 186301230531 43251 238 244 51 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Blue Jays Blue — 175137 21311 183518 122 153331212543 58180 2010 250 55 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Blue Jays — 1615 3000 140 10 200250200450 275 256 194 17 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLETOR 0% 148132 27412 11374 30 208288294582 86273 257 268 67 -6 +1 -1 +2 +3 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLETOR 34% 7769 15211 6192 10 215295319614 104275 258 280 76 -2 +0 -1 +1 +2 -0.0
202922 MLB MLETOR 50% 166148 32513 13404 20 221301341642 120278 248 291 83 -3 +0 -1 +2 +4 0.1
203023 MLB MLETOR 58% 259231 52826 20636 31 226305359664 133280 248 299 89 -3 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.3
203124 MLB MLETOR 61% 345307 701129 27838 41 230309374683 144282 248 306 94 -3 +0 -2 +4 +7 0.7
203225 MLB MLETOR 63% 394351 8313312 31949 41 233311385697 152283 248 312 97 -1 +0 -3 +4 +9 0.9
203326 MLB MLETOR 64% 425379 8914313 341029 41 235313393706 158283 248 315 99 -0 +0 -3 +5 +9 1.1
203427 MLB MLETOR 65% 437389 9114314 3510510 41 234312391703 157282 248 314 98 -1 +0 -3 +5 +9 1.1
203528 MLB MLETOR 65% 440393 9114314 351079 41 232310386696 154281 248 311 97 -2 +0 -4 +5 +10 0.9
203629 MLB MLETOR 65% 434388 8914313 341079 31 230307380688 150280 258 308 94 -3 +0 -4 +5 +9 0.7
203730 MLB MLETOR 65% 425380 8613312 331069 31 227304373677 146279 258 303 91 -4 +0 -5 +5 +9 0.5
203831 MLB MLETOR 65% 408366 8012211 311038 24 223299363663 140276 258 298 88 -6 -1 -6 +4 +9 0.0
203932 MLB MLETOR 65% 387347 7511210 291008 26 218293351645 133272 267 290 83 -8 -2 -6 +4 +8 -0.4
202821 MLB CTXTOR 34% 2623 5100 261 00 216296320616 105277 238 281 76 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
202922 MLB CTXTOR 50% 8375 18312 6202 10 222301342644 121279 247 292 83 -2 +0 -1 +1 +2 0.1
203023 MLB CTXTOR 58% 149133 31514 12363 20 227306361667 134281 248 300 89 -2 +0 -1 +2 +3 0.2
203124 MLB CTXTOR 61% 210186 44726 17505 21 231310375685 144283 248 307 94 -2 +0 -1 +2 +5 0.4
203225 MLB CTXTOR 63% 247220 51827 20595 31 234312387699 153284 248 313 97 -1 +0 -2 +3 +5 0.6
203326 MLB CTXTOR 64% 271242 58929 21656 31 236314395708 159284 248 316 99 -0 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.7
203427 MLB CTXTOR 65% 284253 59929 23686 31 235313392705 157284 248 315 98 -1 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.7
203528 MLB CTXTOR 65% 286255 59929 23696 21 233311388698 155283 248 312 97 -1 +0 -2 +3 +6 0.6
203629 MLB CTXTOR 65% 282252 58928 22696 21 231308382690 151282 248 309 94 -2 +0 -3 +3 +6 0.5
203730 MLB CTXTOR 65% 276246 57928 22696 21 228305374679 146280 258 304 91 -3 +0 -3 +3 +6 0.3
203831 MLB CTXTOR 65% 265238 53827 20675 13 224300365665 141277 258 298 88 -4 -1 -4 +3 +6 0.0
203932 MLB CTXTOR 65% 252226 49717 19655 24 219294352647 134274 268 291 83 -5 -1 -4 +3 +5 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 26312349 542841976 20764356 2314 231308380688 149284 248 306 89 -23 -1 -25 +28 +57 3.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650580 13521519 5115914 63 233310384694 152287 248 306 89 -6 -0 -6 +7 +14 0.9
Career— MLE — 46054084 91214030119 3641119121 6824 223306360665 136276 248 300 89 -38 +0 -39 +45 +92 6.1
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12920417 5115817 103 224305361667 137277 248 300 89 -6 +0 -6 +7 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 16 PAwOBA .263 → .194 (−69)K% 18.8% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷1.000×1.440——27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0083.90%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP33.33%÷1.000×0.820—×1.00827.54%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .263 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Blue Jays Blue · 175 PAwOBA .372 → .250 (−122)K% 16.0% → 20.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.00%÷0.968×1.220——20.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷0.988×0.700—×1.00810.20%
HBP% /PA10.29%—×0.700—×1.0087.25%
Singles /BIP24.75%÷1.086×0.680×0.950×1.00814.83%
Doubles /BIP4.95%÷1.023×0.600×0.950×1.0082.78%
Triples /BIP0.99%÷0.900×0.600×0.950×1.0080.63%
Home runs /BIP1.98%÷0.836×0.470—×1.0081.12%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 117, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .372 → .250; ISO .101 → .063; BABIP .304 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 189 PAwOBA .345 → .244 (−102)K% 18.5% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.52%÷0.973×1.220——23.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.64%÷1.015×0.700—×1.0228.21%
HBP% /PA5.82%—×0.700—×1.0224.17%
Singles /BIP27.97%÷0.958×0.680×0.973×1.02219.75%
Doubles /BIP6.78%÷0.964×0.600×0.973×1.0224.20%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷0.900×0.600×0.973×1.0221.12%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.892×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.

Result: wOBA .345 → .244; ISO .078 → .051; BABIP .364 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).