Rafael Flores — OGILVIE

Rafael FloresSS FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION16 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .182 / .100

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP276

ISO102

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$48M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 62

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER62

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

DEFENSE42

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$8M	+1.0	$4M	+$1M
2037	Arb-3	$10M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$26M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	125	+6	+2	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	139	+8	+2	—	—	+4	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	162	35	6	2	0	13	52	11	19	4	216	317	278	595	62	295	28	7	255	59	-9	+2	—	—	+4	-0.3
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	138	25	3	1	2	16	42	18	12	2	181	343	261	604	80	216	24	9	267	67	-7	+2	—	—	+4	-0.2
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	162	35	6	2	0	13	52	11	19	4	216	317	278	595	62	318	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	281	409	359	768	78	364	19	12	353	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	138	25	3	1	2	16	42	18	12	2	181	343	261	604	80	237	24	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	256	442	357	798	101	304	16	14	374	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	163	35	6	2	0	13	52	11	19	4	215	317	276	593	61	295	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	139	25	3	1	2	16	42	18	12	2	180	343	259	602	79	216	24	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	189	163	35	6	2	0	13	52	11	19	4	215	317	276	593	61	295	28	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Blue	—	175	139	25	3	1	2	16	42	18	12	2	180	343	259	602	79	216	24	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	TOR	—	16	15	3	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	200	250	200	450		273	25	6	193	17	-2	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	TOR	—	16	15	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	267	312	267	579		333	19	6	270	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	TOR	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		274	27	9	276	73	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	ROK MLE	TOR	—	27	25	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	1	0	160	222	160	382		222	26	7	227	40	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	230	206	47	8	2	5	17	56	5	3	1	228	303	359	662	131	278	24	7	292	84	-4	+0	-2	+2	+5	0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	356	318	72	12	2	9	27	85	8	5	1	226	303	362	665	135	281	24	8	303	91	-4	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	446	398	92	15	3	13	35	106	10	5	1	231	309	382	691	151	283	24	8	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+5	+10	1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	506	449	107	18	3	16	40	119	12	6	1	238	317	399	716	160	284	24	8	318	101	+1	+1	-3	+5	+11	1.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	545	485	116	19	4	18	43	128	12	6	1	239	317	406	723	167	285	23	8	323	105	+3	+1	-4	+6	+12	1.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	568	505	122	20	4	20	45	133	13	6	1	242	320	416	736	174	286	23	8	326	107	+5	+1	-4	+6	+12	2.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	580	516	125	20	4	21	46	136	13	6	1	242	320	419	739	176	286	23	8	329	109	+6	+1	-4	+6	+13	2.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	583	518	126	20	4	22	47	137	13	6	1	243	322	425	747	181	286	23	8	329	109	+6	+1	-4	+6	+13	2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	580	515	124	20	4	21	47	137	13	6	1	241	320	417	737	177	285	24	8	328	108	+6	+1	-5	+6	+13	2.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	571	506	122	20	3	21	47	136	13	6	1	241	322	417	739	176	285	24	8	327	107	+5	+1	-5	+6	+12	1.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	561	497	118	19	3	20	46	135	13	5	1	237	318	408	727	171	284	24	8	324	105	+4	+1	-6	+6	+12	1.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	548	486	114	18	3	19	45	134	12	5	1	235	315	401	716	167	282	24	8	320	103	+2	+1	-7	+6	+12	1.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	530	470	109	17	3	18	43	131	12	5	1	232	312	396	708	164	279	25	8	315	99	-1	+1	-7	+6	+11	1.0
2040	33	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	500	444	100	15	3	16	41	126	11	4	1	225	306	381	687	155	275	25	8	308	95	-3	+0	-8	+5	+11	0.6
2041	34	MLB MLE	TOR	47%	453	404	88	13	2	14	36	117	10	4	1	218	298	364	662	146	270	26	8	300	89	-6	+0	-8	+5	+10	0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	79	71	17	3	1	2	6	19	2	1	0	239	316	394	711	155	280	24	8	275	84	-2	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	172	153	35	6	1	4	13	41	4	2	0	229	306	359	665	131	282	24	8	287	91	-2	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	242	215	51	8	2	7	19	57	6	3	1	237	317	391	707	153	284	24	8	296	97	-1	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	286	255	61	10	2	9	22	67	7	3	1	239	317	400	717	161	286	23	8	302	101	+0	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	308	274	66	11	2	10	24	72	7	3	1	241	318	405	723	164	287	23	8	307	105	+2	+0	-2	+3	+7	1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	321	286	69	11	2	11	25	75	7	3	1	241	318	409	727	168	287	23	8	310	107	+3	+0	-2	+3	+7	1.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	328	291	70	11	2	12	26	77	8	3	1	241	320	416	736	175	287	23	8	313	109	+3	+0	-2	+4	+7	1.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	323	287	70	11	2	12	26	76	7	3	1	244	322	422	743	178	287	24	8	313	109	+3	+0	-2	+3	+7	1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	318	282	69	11	2	12	26	75	7	3	1	245	324	426	749	181	287	24	8	312	108	+3	+0	-3	+3	+7	1.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	305	270	65	10	2	11	25	73	7	3	1	241	321	415	736	174	286	24	8	311	107	+3	+0	-3	+3	+7	1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	295	262	62	10	2	10	24	71	7	3	1	237	317	405	722	168	285	24	8	308	105	+2	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.9
2038	31	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	286	255	60	9	2	10	23	70	6	3	1	235	313	404	717	169	283	24	8	304	103	+1	+0	-3	+3	+6	0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	275	245	57	9	2	9	22	68	6	2	0	233	311	396	707	163	280	25	8	299	99	-0	+0	-4	+3	+6	0.5
2040	33	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	259	230	51	8	1	8	21	65	6	2	0	222	304	370	673	148	277	25	8	293	95	-2	+0	-4	+3	+6	0.3
2041	34	MLB CTX	TOR	47%	214	190	42	6	1	7	17	55	5	2	0	221	302	374	676	153	271	26	8	284	89	-3	+0	-4	+2	+5	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4011	3566	845	134	26	134	319	961	92	39	10	237	316	402	718	165	285	24	8	304	100	+11	+4	-37	+43	+87	11.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	137	22	4	22	52	156	15	6	2	237	316	403	719	166	285	24	8	304	100	+2	+1	-6	+7	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7932	7027	1643	263	50	255	635	1913	199	109	21	234	315	394	709	161	283	24	8	316	100	+17	+10	-71	+81	+164	20.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	135	22	4	21	52	157	16	9	2	234	315	396	711	161	284	24	8	316	100	+1	+1	-6	+7	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.3	4,158	138	43	236	312	400	+43	-27	16.9	13.8
/162	664	22	7	+6.9	-4.3	2.7	pk7: 11
#4Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
/162	664	24	1	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Flores (OGILVIE)	19	37	62	35	45	211/287/312	102	274	2	2	25%	7%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Luis Campusano 2018 · A	19	43→53	41→55	41→30	44	213/267/308	95	273	10	4	25%	6%	63	-1.4	248/300/360	112	296	11	2	20%	6%	86	+0.3	257/334/422	165	298	20	1	20%	10%	111	+1.3
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	74	-0.6	209/254/346	137	287	16	2	32%	5%	68	-1.0	243/303/441	198	304	26	1	28%	7%	106	+1.5
✕Elias Díaz 2010 · A	19	42→52	41→50	42→45	44	204/265/299	95	266	8	5	26%	7%	60	-1.6	187/235/264	77	245	5	4	25%	5%	40	-3.0	253/312/396	144	279	17	0	16%	7%	98	+0.6
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	39	232/274/353	122	292	11	4	25%	4%	76	-0.4	213/267/301	88	291	7	5	28%	6%	61	-1.5	176/240/214	38	249	3	2	28%	6%	30	-1.0
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	41→43	44→55	44→30	42	200/278/315	116	290	12	5	33%	8%	70	-0.9	197/274/331	134	305	16	4	38%	8%	72	-0.7	202/297/392	190	283	25	2	36%	10%	92	+0.6
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	68	-1.0	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	85	+0.2	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Daniel Robertson 2014 · A	20	46→54	42→45	37→40	45	224/284/332	108	283	10	3	24%	7%	75	-0.5	242/309/351	109	303	9	3	22%	7%	88	+0.5	232/336/343	111	304	11	4	25%	11%	96	+0.6
✕Raul Juarez 2017 · A	19	42	41→45	42→40	41	208/273/305	97	268	9	6	25%	5%	65	-1.2	204/257/279	75	279	6	5	28%	5%	53	-2.1	180/221/220	41	250	4	2	29%	3%	23	-0.9
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	231/306/343	112	272	11	5	19%	7%	86	+0.3	224/289/325	101	280	9	6	22%	6%	76	-0.4	212/264/322	110	252	12	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Jesús Báez 2023 · A	18	39→40	44→55	44→45	43	197/263/310	113	267	13	9	30%	8%	63	-1.4	199/261/321	122	254	13	9	26%	7%	64	-1.3	217/271/392	175	242	26	8	23%	6%	83	+0.1
✕Roan Salas 2009 · A	19	46	37→65	44→40	45	219/267/295	75	262	5	8	18%	5%	59	-1.6	244/295/389	145	276	15	4	17%	6%	92	+0.7	258/310/428	170	281	19	2	16%	6%	105	+0.7
✕Austin Hedges 2013 · A	20	45→40	43→60	45	42	221/270/333	111	270	10	12	22%	5%	70	-0.9	212/257/309	97	267	8	7	23%	5%	59	-1.7	227/269/410	183	271	25	4	26%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2018 · A	20	50→44	43→50	40→45	44	245/288/356	111	285	9	4	18%	5%	81	-0.1	228/267/357	129	270	15	7	21%	4%	74	-0.5	225/263/372	146	262	18	5	22%	3%	75	-0.4
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	67	-1.1	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	73	-0.6	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	73	-0.3
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	48→46	42→50	44→50	46	226/320/334	108	300	8	7	26%	8%	90	+0.6	212/310/340	128	285	12	8	28%	8%	88	+0.4	217/303/361	144	274	17	12	26%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	73	-0.6	183/264/287	104	286	10	6	37%	8%	58	-1.7	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	40	-0.9
●Jose Miranda 2018 · A	20	41→51	44→50	41→40	43	207/254/319	112	234	13	5	19%	5%	61	-1.5	218/263/324	106	250	10	2	17%	4%	65	-1.2	262/312/401	139	296	17	2	17%	5%	99	+1.0
✕Jake Smolinski 2010 · A	21	48→50	43→55	39→45	48	232/293/350	118	281	10	5	21%	7%	82	+0.0	227/289/334	107	272	8	7	18%	7%	77	-0.3	239/301/393	154	272	16	6	18%	6%	93	+0.6
✕Armando Sierra 2023 · A	19	47	41→45	43→40	47	227/288/323	97	280	8	4	22%	7%	74	-0.5	213/268/313	100	305	9	4	31%	6%	64	-1.3	189/239/286	97	292	10	0	37%	6%	45	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps