Rafael Flores — OGILVIE

Rafael FloresSS DSL Blue Jays Blue

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 172 lbs ROK HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 3.8 · 2033

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .295 / .353

PA146

HR4

K%27

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

35↗40

PWR

60→60

SPD

40↘33

FLD

35↗43

EYE

49↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.4peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.6	$34M	+$33M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.8	$37M	+$36M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.8	$39M	+$38M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+3.7	$39M	+$31M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+3.5	$38M	+$26M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+3.2	$35M	+$19M
Totals		$39M		$222M	+$183M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	189	162	35	6	2	0	13	53	11	19	4	.216	.317	.278	.595	.062	.321	28	7	.259	56	-9	+2	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	175	138	24	3	1	2	16	43	18	12	2	.174	.337	.254	.591	.080	.229	25	9	.267	63	-7	+2	+0	+2	+5	0.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	TOR	146	131	30	5	1	4	11	39	3	2	1	.229	.303	.374	.677	.145	.286	27	8	.294	83	-3	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 11%	TOR	230	205	47	8	1	7	19	59	4	3	1	.229	.307	.380	.688	.151	.294	26	8	.317	100	+0	+0	-2	+2	+7	0.7
2028	21	MLB 28%	TOR	356	315	76	13	2	12	31	89	7	5	1	.241	.323	.410	.732	.168	.296	25	9	.327	109	+3	+1	-3	+4	+10	1.5
2029	22	MLB 48%	TOR	446	395	97	17	3	16	40	109	8	6	1	.246	.327	.425	.753	.180	.297	24	9	.335	115	+7	+1	-4	+5	+13	2.2
2030	23	MLB 65%	TOR	506	445	112	19	3	20	47	122	9	6	1	.252	.335	.443	.778	.191	.298	24	9	.342	120	+11	+1	-5	+5	+14	2.8
2031	24	MLB 82%	TOR	545	478	121	21	3	22	52	129	10	6	1	.253	.339	.448	.787	.195	.298	24	10	.348	125	+15	+1	-5	+6	+15	3.3
2032	25	MLB	TOR	568	496	126	21	3	24	56	134	11	6	1	.254	.343	.454	.796	.200	.299	24	10	.352	128	+18	+1	-5	+6	+16	3.6
2033	26	MLB	TOR	580	506	130	22	3	25	58	136	11	6	1	.257	.346	.460	.807	.204	.300	23	10	.354	129	+19	+1	-5	+6	+16	3.8
2034	27	MLB	TOR	583	508	130	22	3	25	59	138	11	6	1	.256	.346	.459	.805	.203	.300	24	10	.354	129	+19	+1	-5	+6	+17	3.8
2035	28	MLB	TOR	580	505	129	22	3	25	59	138	11	5	0	.255	.346	.459	.805	.204	.300	24	10	.353	129	+19	+1	-6	+6	+16	3.7
2036	29	MLB	TOR	571	497	125	21	3	24	58	138	11	4	0	.252	.343	.451	.793	.199	.299	24	10	.351	127	+17	+1	-7	+6	+16	3.5
2037	30	MLB	TOR	561	489	122	20	3	23	57	137	10	4	0	.249	.340	.444	.784	.194	.297	24	10	.348	125	+16	+1	-7	+6	+16	3.2
2038	31	MLB	TOR	548	477	118	20	3	22	56	136	10	3	0	.247	.339	.440	.779	.193	.296	25	10	.344	122	+13	+1	-8	+6	+16	2.8
2039	32	MLB	TOR	530	461	113	19	3	21	54	135	10	2	0	.245	.337	.436	.773	.191	.294	25	10	.340	118	+11	+0	-8	+6	+15	2.4
2040	33	MLB	TOR	500	436	105	17	3	19	51	130	9	2	0	.241	.333	.424	.757	.183	.293	26	10	.334	114	+8	+0	-9	+5	+14	1.9
2041	34	MLB	TOR	453	396	93	15	2	17	46	122	8	2	0	.235	.327	.412	.738	.177	.291	27	10	.327	108	+4	+0	-9	+5	+13	1.4
2042	35	MLB	TOR	398	348	80	13	2	14	40	111	7	2	0	.230	.322	.399	.721	.170	.289	28	10	.319	102	+1	+0	-9	+4	+11	0.8
2043	36	MLB	TOR	338	296	65	10	2	11	33	98	6	2	0	.220	.310	.378	.689	.159	.286	29	10	.309	95	-2	+0	-9	+4	+10	0.2
2044	37	MLB	TOR	274	240	51	8	1	8	27	82	5	2	0	.212	.305	.354	.659	.142	.281	30	10	.299	87	-4	+0	-10	+3	+8	-0.3
2045	38	MLB	TOR	205	181	38	6	1	6	19	63	3	1	0	.210	.296	.354	.649	.144	.276	31	9	.287	78	-5	+0	-10	+2	+6	-0.7
2046	39	MLB	TOR	132	117	23	3	1	3	12	41	2	1	0	.197	.282	.316	.599	.120	.270	31	9	.276	69	-5	+0	-10	+1	+4	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			9414	8222	1990	331	52	350	914	2382	195	107	15	.242	.332	.423	.755	.181	.296	25	10	.334	114	+147	+15	-138	+101	+267	40.1
/ 162G	—			650	568	138	23	4	24	63	164	13	7	1	.243	.332	.424	.756	.181	.298	25	10	.334	114	+10	+1	-10	+7	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	189	153	43	8	2	0	22	35	11	19	4	.281	.409	.359	.768	.078	.364	19	12	.353	129	+6	+2	—	—	+5	1.4
2025	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Blue	175	129	33	5	1	2	25	28	18	12	2	.256	.442	.357	.798	.101	.304	16	14	.374	145	+9	+2	—	—	+5	1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Flores (OGILVIE)	19	35→40	60	40→33	45	.221/.295/.353	.133	.286	4	2	27%	8%	83	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A	19	43→53	49→60	42→55	41	.222/.273/.365	.143	.281	17	4	27%	6%	76	+0.0	.244/.297/.396	.152	.312	17	5	26%	6%	94	+1.3	.293/.370/.507	.214	.325	27	7	18%	10%	148	+4.3
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→50	45→60	43→30	45	.215/.274/.337	.122	.275	14	3	27%	7%	69	-0.4	.206/.251/.346	.140	.279	17	2	32%	5%	62	-0.9	.246/.306/.451	.204	.321	28	0	31%	7%	109	+2.0
●Miguel Sanó 2012 · A	19	40→50	52→70	45	36	.209/.255/.376	.167	.298	20	5	36%	6%	71	-0.3	.215/.290/.419	.204	.296	26	6	35%	9%	98	+1.6	.243/.334/.470	.227	.340	31	2	35%	11%	124	+3.1
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	51→60	46→50	41	.257/.304/.425	.168	.315	17	9	24%	5%	105	+2.1	.220/.283/.330	.110	.348	9	5	36%	7%	71	-0.3	.183/.261/.257	.074	.337	5	0	43%	8%	40	-0.6
●Gary Sánchez 2012 · A	19	43→51	51→65	45	38	.220/.269/.377	.157	.304	20	4	34%	6%	78	+0.2	.225/.273/.367	.142	.295	17	6	29%	5%	76	+0.1	.232/.315/.480	.248	.254	37	1	26%	9%	119	+2.3
★Austin Riley 2016 · A	19	44→54	49→65	45→40	38	.218/.279/.361	.143	.320	17	5	36%	6%	78	+0.2	.214/.260/.366	.152	.309	18	3	36%	5%	71	-0.3	.273/.345/.498	.224	.325	30	1	25%	8%	136	+4.9
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	44→52	49→65	49→45	45	.226/.283/.369	.143	.276	17	6	25%	7%	81	+0.4	.250/.300/.421	.171	.300	23	7	24%	6%	102	+1.8	.258/.305/.479	.221	.284	33	5	22%	6%	116	+2.6
✕Victor Heredia 2019 · A	19	47	44→50	42→30	40	.230/.273/.349	.119	.292	11	4	25%	4%	71	-0.3	.214/.267/.303	.089	.290	7	4	27%	6%	56	-1.3	.176/.240/.214	.038	.249	3	2	28%	6%	21	-1.0
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2011 · A	19	44→49	48→60	46→30	40	.226/.269/.368	.142	.281	16	5	26%	5%	75	-0.0	.206/.240/.352	.146	.247	19	3	25%	4%	58	-1.2	.243/.288/.435	.192	.292	26	1	26%	4%	98	+1.2
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	45→52	52→50	38→45	49	.233/.303/.397	.164	.282	20	4	25%	9%	97	+1.5	.226/.299/.365	.139	.268	16	4	21%	9%	87	+0.8	.233/.308/.392	.159	.261	18	0	18%	8%	97	+0.8
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	41→51	47→60	46→45	46	.210/.298/.347	.138	.263	15	10	26%	8%	83	+0.6	.215/.301/.412	.197	.284	25	6	32%	9%	101	+1.8	.261/.318/.433	.172	.316	21	10	23%	6%	110	+1.8
✕Roan Salas 2010 · A	20	46	48→65	46→40	45	.235/.283/.379	.144	.263	16	5	18%	6%	83	+0.6	.245/.298/.376	.131	.281	12	5	17%	6%	89	+0.9	.268/.322/.383	.115	.301	9	3	14%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	42	45→55	45→40	43	.206/.283/.328	.122	.292	13	5	32%	8%	71	-0.3	.197/.275/.334	.137	.303	16	4	38%	8%	69	-0.4	.194/.284/.363	.169	.278	23	2	37%	9%	78	+0.1
●Nolan Gorman 2019 · A	19	43	54→60	39→45	41	.223/.285/.396	.173	.318	23	4	36%	8%	89	+1.0	.205/.259/.351	.146	.301	17	4	36%	6%	66	-0.6	.225/.289/.424	.199	.290	29	6	33%	8%	95	+1.2
●Luis Campusano 2018 · A	19	43→53	41→50	42→30	44	.214/.269/.309	.096	.275	10	4	26%	6%	59	-1.1	.248/.300/.359	.111	.296	11	2	19%	6%	85	+0.7	.261/.327/.424	.162	.295	21	1	19%	8%	110	+1.4
●Willy Adames 2015 · A	19	48→53	41→60	47→50	46	.224/.293/.338	.114	.316	6	6	29%	8%	76	+0.1	.224/.290/.335	.111	.332	7	8	32%	8%	75	-0.0	.263/.332/.462	.199	.341	24	5	28%	9%	122	+2.4
✕Luis Alvarez 2009 · A	19	47	43→45	44→45	48	.230/.303/.339	.110	.271	10	5	19%	7%	82	+0.5	.225/.291/.326	.101	.280	9	5	22%	6%	73	-0.1	.212/.264/.322	.111	.252	13	1	21%	4%	57	-0.3
●Isaac Paredes 2018 · A	19	43→51	43→60	48→40	46	.211/.271/.322	.111	.241	10	4	17%	6%	64	-0.8	.228/.291/.341	.113	.267	11	4	18%	7%	77	+0.1	.245/.349/.440	.195	.261	25	1	17%	11%	126	+3.2
★Manny Machado 2012 · A	20	43→53	44→65	48→50	44	.217/.266/.340	.124	.267	11	10	24%	6%	66	-0.6	.250/.295/.396	.146	.294	13	8	19%	6%	92	+1.2	.280/.340/.502	.222	.295	29	7	16%	8%	128	+4.3
●Wilson Ramos 2008 · A	20	47→57	43→55	45→30	41	.233/.274/.344	.111	.282	10	5	22%	4%	70	-0.3	.245/.283/.364	.119	.308	12	2	24%	4%	79	+0.3	.291/.339/.471	.180	.318	24	0	17%	7%	125	+2.3

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)