Alberto RiosC Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 203 lbs A+ HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 161 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†47
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .269 / .299
PA161
HR2
K%27
BB%7
BABIP275
ISO95
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -9.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-10BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +5.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.0+$2M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER35
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.6M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202321 AInland Empire 66ers — 145130 18313 11502 72 138217246463 108190 348 215 23 — — — — — —
202321 AInland Empire 66ers — 145127 23423 14372 72 181273315588 134225 2610 266 61 — — — — — —
202422 INTL2 teams — 246228 48900 13922 43 211259250509 39345 375 230 34 — — — — — —
202422 INTL2 teams — 246218 581003 23612 43 266342353695 87350 259 314 99 — — — — — —
202523 A2 teams — 231205 28323 16743 20 137210215424 78194 327 183 -2 — — — — — —
202523 A2 teams — 231197 34423 24563 20 173272259531 86223 2410 243 44 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD24 A+LAA — 1816 5101 170 10 312353562915 250500 396 320 103 +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.1
YTD24 A+LAA — 1816 6101 150 10 3754126251.037 250500 286 427 185 +2 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.3
ROS24 A+LAA 0% 161147 30612 11442 31 204269299568 95265 277 246 47 -10 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.2
ROS24 MLBLAA 0% 11 0000 000 00 264 00 237 40 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL24 A+LAA — 1917 5101 170 10 294333529863 235444 375 316 100 -0 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.1
TOT24 A+LAA — 179163 35713 12512 41 215277325602 110291 287 254 52 -10 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725 MLBLAA 30% 235214 43813 16633 41 201266290556 89268 277 258 55 -12 +0 +0 +4 +7 -0.1
202826 MLBLAA 44% 312284 591125 22823 51 208272313585 106270 267 265 61 -14 +1 +0 +6 +9 0.1
202927 MLBLAA 49% 351319 671326 25924 52 210276320596 110271 267 268 63 -15 +0 +0 +6 +10 0.2
203028 MLBLAA 52% 376342 711426 27994 62 208273313586 105271 267 268 63 -16 +0 -1 +7 +11 0.2
203129 MLBLAA 51% 384349 721426 281024 52 206273309582 103270 277 266 62 -17 +0 -1 +7 +11 -0.0
202725 MLBLAA 30% 7165 12201 5191 10 185254262515 77267 277 249 48 -4 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
202826 MLBLAA 44% 138125 26512 10362 21 208277312589 104269 267 255 54 -7 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.1
202927 MLBLAA 49% 172156 33613 12452 31 212276321597 109270 267 258 56 -9 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.0
203028 MLBLAA 52% 194176 36713 14512 31 205271307578 102270 267 259 56 -10 +0 -0 +3 +5 -0.1
203129 MLBLAA 51% 198179 37713 15522 31 207276307583 101269 268 257 55 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 774702 14427412 562039 124 205272306579 101269 267 257 55 -40 +1 -1 +14 +22 -0.4
/ 162G— — 650590 12123310 471708 103 205273305578 100269 267 257 55 -33 +1 -1 +12 +18 -0.4
Career— — 24412218 436811334 16969827 4114 197262291553 94268 297 250 49 -140 +3 -2 +44 +69 -2.7
/ 162G— — 650591 1162239 451867 114 196261289551 93268 297 250 49 -37 +1 -1 +12 +18 -0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202321 AInland Empire 66ers — 145127 23423 14372 72 181273315588 134225 2610 266 61 -6 +1 — — +4 -0.2
202422 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 115103 26500 10322 22 252330301631 49366 289 295 84 -2 -0 — — +3 0.1
202422 INTLSydney Blue Sox — 131115 32503 13290 21 278352400752 122337 2210 332 112 +2 +0 — — +4 0.6
202523 A+Tri-City Dust Devils — 7362 6100 8161 00 97211113324 16130 2211 166 -15 -9 +0 — — +2 -0.8
202523 AInland Empire 66ers — 158135 28323 16402 20 207301326627 119269 2510 279 72 -5 +0 — — +4 -0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
27741312209272315+14+80.30.3
/1626641110+11.9+6.90.2pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alberto Rios (OGILVIE) 24 30 35 40 40 215/277/325 110291 34 28% 7% 52 -0.1 ————————— —————————
✕Connor Justus
2019 · AA 		24 40→37 38→40 42→45 45 190/273/269 79271 68 30% 8% 52 -1.6 172/246/239 67256 58 32% 7% 33 -2.9 143/216/191472223634%7%5-2.9
✕Richard Mercado
2007 · A 		24 40 37→45 45→30 41 195/242/273 78270 45 29% 6% 37 -2.6 211/263/296 85276 64 24% 6% 53 -1.5 210/263/287772676023%6%49-0.7
✕Matt Pagnozzi
2007 · AA 		24 37 38→45 43→40 39 181/239/262 81264 54 32% 6% 34 -2.8 196/247/275 79277 64 30% 5% 40 -2.4 208/275/286792926029%7%53-0.7
✕Rocky Gale
2012 · AA 		24 37→45 37→40 41→30 40 184/232/251 67245 55 27% 5% 27 -3.3 204/235/262 58251 44 20% 4% 30 -3.1 251/279/300493062118%3%57-0.6
✕Camden Duzenack
2019 · A 		24 40→37 39→50 46→50 42 193/255/280 87254 511 25% 6% 46 -2.0 185/240/307 122256 159 33% 5% 47 -1.9 203/253/332129265151029%5%56-0.7
✕Caleb Hamilton
2019 · A 		24 34 41→45 45 46 172/252/271 98253 76 33% 9% 43 -2.2 186/255/287 101275 108 33% 8% 48 -1.9 145/239/28213720521340%10%39-0.8
✕Jeremy Dowdy
2014 · A 		24 43 37→40 45→30 41 206/252/277 72284 45 28% 6% 43 -2.2 226/279/305 79285 54 21% 7% 62 -0.9 229/288/312822786119%7%63-0.3
✕Adam Weisenburger
2013 · AA 		24 42 36→40 43→30 45 197/271/262 65269 35 26% 7% 49 -1.8 214/294/304 90284 74 25% 8% 69 -0.4 213/299/301872766223%8%69-0.2
✕Jay Schuyler
2021 · A 		24 43→40 38→40 43→45 43 206/262/282 76269 66 25% 6% 49 -1.8 198/260/285 87318 76 37% 6% 49 -1.8 136/208/187502464043%6%1-1.2
✕Brian Serven
2019 · A 		24 40 40→45 41→30 40 197/248/295 98262 74 27% 5% 46 -2.0 185/239/301 116243 134 29% 5% 45 -2.1 224/307/3331093279131%9%79+0.1
✕Alejandro Torres
2012 · A 		23 37 37→40 46→40 35 182/219/253 71267 45 33% 4% 22 -3.7 205/260/281 76311 56 33% 6% 48 -1.9 198/265/228303130034%8%37-0.5
✕Austin Rei
2018 · A 		24 37 39→40 37→40 38 179/253/269 90275 64 35% 6% 43 -2.2 188/261/280 92285 75 34% 7% 50 -1.8 171/249/254842528233%7%36-1.0
✕Joseph Odom
2016 · A 		24 36 43→45 42→30 41 186/243/296 110256 114 31% 7% 45 -2.1 217/257/323 106294 103 28% 5% 57 -1.2 199/254/31811933012241%6%52-0.6
✕Braeden Schlehuber
2012 · AA 		24 38 40→45 44→40 40 187/233/279 92227 85 22% 4% 37 -2.7 206/252/318 112249 125 22% 4% 55 -1.4 200/245/30910823412320%3%47-0.8
✕Chadd Krist
2015 · A 		25 39 41→40 44→45 42 192/253/287 94265 86 30% 6% 47 -1.9 193/247/294 101286 106 34% 6% 46 -2.0 150/200/2499821812036%5%11-1.4
✕Stephen McGee
2015 · A 		24 42 37→40 44→30 48 197/281/263 66269 44 27% 9% 53 -1.5 202/281/291 89289 74 30% 9% 61 -1.0 196/283/29710128110131%10%60-0.4
✕Andrés Alvarez
2021 · A 		24 41→30 37→45 48→50 42 195/261/270 74275 47 29% 7% 46 -2.0 201/266/321 120293 1315 34% 7% 62 -0.9 177/245/298121254151535%7%45-1.1
✕D.K. Carey
2016 · A 		24 39→36 41→40 42→45 46 194/261/287 93252 97 26% 8% 51 -1.7 187/262/276 89273 86 32% 9% 48 -1.9 166/250/246802507434%9%34-1.5
✕Dennis Ortega
2021 · A 		24 40 39→45 46→45 41 195/242/275 80253 76 25% 5% 38 -2.6 200/251/280 80312 67 36% 6% 43 -2.2 185/236/252672976538%6%26-1.0
✕Tyler Reichenborn
2022 · A 		24 37→43 42→45 42→50 40 182/253/289 107277 88 35% 7% 48 -1.9 202/276/293 91279 912 29% 8% 59 -1.1 197/277/2778126491427%8%52-0.8