Rafael Medina — OGILVIE

Rafael MedinaC DSL Angels

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs ROK HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .261 / .274

PA53

HR1

K%35

BB%7

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.6M
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	57	49	5	1	0	1	4	34	3	0	0	102	214	184	398	82	267	60	7	173	-9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	57	47	8	2	0	1	6	24	3	0	0	170	304	277	580	106	304	42	11	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	—	81	70	8	1	0	1	7	32	4	1	2	114	235	171	406	57	189	40	9	195	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	—	81	65	12	2	0	2	12	24	4	1	2	185	346	308	653	123	256	30	15	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	LAA	—	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	18	1	1	0	208	283	312	596	104	289	34	8	248	48	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAA	34%	117	105	22	4	1	2	9	39	2	1	0	210	284	324	608	114	290	33	8	259	57	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	LAA	48%	262	235	47	8	1	5	20	85	5	3	1	200	277	306	583	106	292	32	8	267	63	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.1
2029	23	MLB	LAA	54%	366	328	68	12	2	7	28	117	7	4	1	207	284	320	604	113	293	32	8	272	67	-14	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.4
2030	24	MLB	LAA	55%	437	393	82	15	2	9	33	138	8	4	2	209	283	326	609	117	294	32	8	276	69	-15	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.5
2031	25	MLB	LAA	56%	479	431	91	16	3	10	36	151	9	5	2	211	286	332	618	121	294	32	8	277	70	-16	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.6
2032	26	MLB	LAA	56%	504	452	96	17	3	11	38	159	9	5	2	212	287	336	623	124	294	32	8	278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.7
2033	27	MLB	LAA	55%	515	461	97	17	3	11	40	163	9	5	2	210	286	332	618	121	293	32	8	278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2034	28	MLB	LAA	55%	518	463	97	17	3	11	41	164	9	5	2	210	287	330	617	121	293	32	8	277	70	-18	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.6
2035	29	MLB	LAA	58%	513	459	95	17	3	10	40	164	9	4	2	207	283	322	606	115	292	32	8	275	68	-18	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.4
2036	30	MLB	LAA	60%	505	451	92	16	2	10	40	162	9	4	1	204	282	315	597	111	290	32	8	272	66	-19	+0	-2	+9	+14	0.2
2037	31	MLB	LAA	62%	478	429	86	15	2	9	38	155	8	3	1	200	278	308	586	107	288	32	8	268	63	-20	+0	-3	+9	+14	-0.0
2027	21	MLB	LAA	34%	40	36	7	1	0	1	3	13	1	0	0	194	275	306	581	111	289	32	8	245	45	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	LAA	48%	127	115	23	4	1	2	9	41	2	1	0	200	270	304	574	104	291	32	7	253	51	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	LAA	54%	198	177	36	6	1	4	15	63	4	2	1	203	281	316	597	113	292	32	8	258	56	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	LAA	55%	242	218	45	8	1	5	18	76	4	2	1	206	279	321	600	115	293	31	7	261	58	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.0
2031	25	MLB	LAA	56%	268	241	49	9	1	5	20	84	5	3	1	203	278	311	589	108	293	31	7	262	59	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2032	26	MLB	LAA	56%	283	254	53	9	2	6	22	89	5	3	1	209	285	331	615	122	292	31	8	263	60	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2033	27	MLB	LAA	55%	285	256	53	9	2	6	22	90	5	3	1	207	283	328	611	121	292	32	8	263	60	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2034	28	MLB	LAA	55%	284	255	52	9	1	6	22	90	5	3	1	204	280	318	598	114	292	32	8	262	59	-13	+0	-0	+5	+8	-0.0
2035	29	MLB	LAA	58%	298	268	56	10	2	6	23	95	5	3	1	209	284	328	612	119	291	32	8	260	58	-14	+0	-1	+5	+8	-0.1
2036	30	MLB	LAA	60%	304	272	55	10	1	6	24	98	5	2	1	202	279	312	592	110	289	32	8	258	55	-15	+0	-1	+5	+9	-0.3
2037	31	MLB	LAA	62%	295	265	52	9	1	5	23	96	5	2	1	196	273	294	567	98	287	33	8	254	52	-16	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2624	2357	481	84	13	52	201	835	46	24	9	204	280	317	596	113	290	32	8	260	57	-128	+1	-4	+47	+74	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	119	21	3	13	50	207	11	6	2	204	279	317	596	113	289	32	8	260	57	-32	+0	-1	+12	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	4885	4374	896	158	25	98	378	1581	92	45	18	205	282	320	602	115	293	32	8	271	66	-189	+2	-7	+87	+138	3.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	119	21	3	13	50	210	12	6	2	204	281	318	598	113	293	32	8	271	66	-25	+0	-1	+12	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	57	47	8	2	0	1	6	24	3	0	0	170	304	277	580	106	304	42	11	273	67	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	—	81	65	12	2	0	2	12	24	4	1	2	185	346	308	653	123	256	30	15	312	97	-0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,678	53	24	207	280	322	+48	+28	2.4	2.3
	/162	664	13	6	207	280	322	+11.9	+6.9	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rafael Medina (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	188/261/274	86	289	1	1	35%	7%	48	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	41→45	47→40	39	168/245/259	91	281	10	3	41%	8%	37	-2.6	203/283/327	124	326	12	6	38%	9%	71	-0.3	196/292/343	147	309	14	3	37%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→40	43→55	47→50	36	194/233/304	111	269	10	5	32%	4%	42	-2.3	197/238/344	147	275	17	6	34%	5%	56	-1.3	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Mike Ohlman 2011 · A	20	39→49	38→45	50→40	38	185/245/263	78	303	5	5	38%	7%	37	-2.6	216/279/309	93	310	6	3	30%	7%	63	-0.8	229/295/332	103	322	7	2	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	48→45	38	194/251/289	95	288	8	7	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/259/275	78	321	4	8	37%	7%	46	-2.0	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Creed Willems 2023 · A	20	37→44	40→50	47→30	35	181/239/272	91	272	7	4	35%	4%	37	-2.6	188/250/322	134	253	16	3	32%	6%	56	-1.3	203/272/343	140	248	18	1	26%	7%	68	-0.3
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	35	-2.8	207/260/302	95	287	7	4	29%	6%	53	-1.5	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Jacob Nottingham 2015 · A	20	38→48	40→45	46→50	38	187/246/282	95	286	8	6	36%	6%	43	-2.2	214/262/313	99	307	9	6	32%	5%	57	-1.2	179/252/304	125	257	16	11	35%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Daniel Santos 2019 · A	20	41	39→45	45→40	41	197/262/285	88	270	7	5	28%	6%	50	-1.7	200/262/282	82	300	5	6	33%	6%	50	-1.8	141/209/188	47	235	0	5	37%	5%	1	-0.9
✕Tyler Marlette 2013 · A	20	42	40→50	47→45	33	207/231/300	92	292	8	5	32%	3%	39	-2.5	233/274/353	120	310	12	8	28%	5%	72	-0.2	234/278/364	130	304	14	7	27%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Deivi Mejia 2010 · A	20	40	41→40	46→30	41	197/265/294	97	276	9	5	30%	6%	54	-1.4	205/261/294	89	269	7	4	25%	6%	52	-1.6	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	43→45	49→40	40	193/254/304	111	268	10	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	201/260/303	102	309	9	3	36%	6%	54	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Geoandry Montilla 2016 · A	20	44	41→45	48→50	41	213/265/307	95	298	8	7	30%	7%	56	-1.3	201/269/302	101	296	8	8	32%	8%	58	-1.2	174/253/276	102	257	8	9	33%	8%	42	-0.7