Rafael Medina — OGILVIE

Rafael MedinaC DSL Angels

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs ROK K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .261 / .271

PA5

HR0

K%35

BB%7

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	57	47	8	2	0	1	6	24	3	0	0	170	304	277	580	106	304	42	11	273	71	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	18	ROK	DSL Angels	—	81	65	12	2	0	2	12	24	4	1	2	185	346	308	653	123	256	30	15	312	97	-0	-1	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	57	49	5	1	0	1	4	34	3	0	0	102	214	184	398	82	236	60	7	167	-1	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	81	70	8	1	0	1	7	33	4	1	2	114	235	171	406	57	191	41	9	200	22	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.7
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	57	49	5	1	0	1	4	34	3	0	0	102	214	184	398	82	267	60	7	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	—	57	47	8	2	0	1	6	24	3	0	0	170	304	277	580	106	304	42	11	273	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	81	70	8	1	0	1	7	33	4	1	2	114	235	171	406	57	194	41	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	—	81	65	12	2	0	2	12	24	4	1	2	185	346	308	653	123	256	30	15	312	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	57	50	5	1	0	1	4	34	3	0	0	100	214	180	394	80	236	60	7	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	81	70	8	1	0	1	7	33	4	1	2	114	235	171	406	57	191	41	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	57	50	5	1	0	1	4	34	3	0	0	100	214	180	394	80	236	60	7	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	81	70	8	1	0	1	7	33	4	1	2	114	235	171	406	57	191	41	9	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	LAA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		289	40	0	247	53	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	LAA	34%	117	105	22	4	1	2	9	39	2	1	0	210	284	324	608	114	290	33	8	259	61	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	LAA	50%	262	235	47	8	1	5	20	85	5	3	1	200	277	306	583	106	291	32	8	266	66	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	LAA	58%	366	328	68	12	2	7	28	117	7	4	1	207	284	320	604	113	292	32	8	272	70	-13	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	LAA	61%	437	393	81	14	2	9	33	139	8	4	2	206	281	321	602	115	293	32	8	275	72	-14	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	LAA	63%	479	430	90	16	3	10	37	152	9	5	2	209	286	330	616	121	293	32	8	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+9	+10	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	LAA	64%	504	451	94	17	3	10	39	160	9	5	2	208	285	326	611	118	293	32	8	277	74	-16	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	515	461	97	17	3	11	40	164	9	5	2	210	286	332	618	121	293	32	8	277	74	-16	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	518	463	97	17	3	11	41	165	9	5	2	210	287	330	617	121	292	32	8	276	73	-17	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	LAA	65%	513	458	94	16	3	10	41	165	9	4	2	205	283	319	602	114	291	32	8	274	72	-17	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	LAA	34%	39	35	7	1	0	1	3	13	1	0	0	200	282	314	596	114	290	33	8	245	61	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	LAA	50%	131	118	24	4	1	2	10	43	2	1	0	203	277	305	582	102	291	33	8	253	66	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	LAA	58%	211	189	39	7	1	4	16	68	4	2	1	206	282	317	600	111	292	32	8	259	70	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	LAA	61%	267	240	49	9	1	5	20	85	5	3	1	204	279	312	592	108	293	32	7	262	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	LAA	63%	301	270	57	10	2	6	23	95	5	3	1	211	285	330	615	119	293	32	8	263	73	-10	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	LAA	64%	321	287	60	10	2	7	25	102	6	3	1	209	286	331	617	122	293	32	8	264	74	-10	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	335	300	63	11	2	7	26	106	6	3	1	210	286	330	616	120	292	32	8	264	74	-10	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	337	301	63	11	2	7	27	107	6	3	1	209	287	329	616	120	292	32	8	263	73	-11	+0	-0	+6	+7	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	LAA	65%	333	298	62	11	2	7	26	107	6	3	1	208	285	329	614	121	291	32	8	261	72	-11	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2275	2038	424	74	13	46	176	726	41	21	7	208	284	325	609	117	296	32	8	262	70	-76	+1	-1	+41	+49	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	121	21	4	13	50	207	12	6	2	208	284	325	609	117	295	32	8	262	70	-22	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3854	3448	704	123	21	77	299	1255	74	37	16	204	282	319	601	115	293	33	8	271	70	-125	+2	-2	+66	+81	2.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	119	21	4	13	50	212	12	6	3	204	281	321	602	117	294	33	8	271	70	-22	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.5	2,328	46	22	207	280	322	+42	+24	3.0	3.0
	/162	664	13	6	207	280	322	+11.9	+6.8	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps