Tyler Herron — OGILVIE

Tyler HerronC FCL Rays

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .274

PA8

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	19	1	0	1	0	2	5	1	0	0	53	182	158	340	105	71	23	9	170	1	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2025	22	ROK	FCL Rays	—	88	72	13	1	0	0	10	19	6	0	3	181	330	194	524	14	245	22	11	267	67	-3	-1	—	—	+2	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	20	1	0	1	0	1	7	1	0	0	50	136	150	286	100	67	32	5	132	-24	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	88	76	10	1	0	0	6	28	6	0	3	132	250	145	395	13	196	32	7	184	11	-9	-1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	110	95	11	1	1	0	8	34	7	0	3	116	236	147	384	32	180	31	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	110	91	14	1	1	0	12	24	7	0	3	154	300	187	487	33	209	22	11	248	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	110	94	11	1	1	0	8	34	7	0	3	117	236	149	385	32	170	31	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	110	94	11	1	1	0	8	34	7	0	3	117	236	149	385	32	170	31	7	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	TB	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		288	25	12	254	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	30%	163	147	31	5	1	2	12	47	3	1	0	211	284	299	583	88	290	29	7	264	65	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	44%	264	238	50	8	2	3	19	75	5	1	0	210	282	298	581	88	290	28	7	270	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	51%	335	300	64	10	3	5	25	94	7	1	1	213	289	317	606	103	290	28	7	274	71	-11	-0	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	52%	372	334	71	11	3	6	28	104	7	1	1	213	287	317	605	105	290	28	8	275	72	-12	-0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	53%	394	353	75	12	3	6	30	111	8	2	1	212	289	314	603	102	289	28	8	274	72	-13	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	400	359	76	12	3	6	30	114	8	2	1	212	287	312	599	100	288	28	8	272	70	-14	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	52%	402	360	75	12	3	5	31	115	8	2	1	208	286	300	586	92	287	29	8	269	68	-15	+0	-2	+7	+9	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	30%	49	45	9	1	0	1	3	14	1	0	0	200	265	289	554	89	298	29	6	254	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	44%	117	106	24	4	1	2	8	33	2	0	0	226	293	340	633	113	298	28	7	261	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	51%	170	153	34	5	2	3	12	48	3	1	0	222	292	340	632	118	298	28	7	266	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	52%	195	174	38	6	2	3	15	55	4	1	0	218	295	328	623	109	298	28	8	267	72	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	53%	210	188	42	7	2	3	16	59	4	1	0	223	298	330	628	106	298	28	8	266	72	-7	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	210	188	41	7	2	3	16	60	4	1	0	218	293	324	618	106	297	29	8	264	70	-7	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	52%	209	187	40	6	2	3	16	60	4	1	0	214	290	316	605	102	295	29	8	261	68	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1160	1041	228	36	11	18	86	329	22	5	0	219	292	327	619	108	300	28	7	264	67	-41	+1	-2	+21	+25	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	127	20	6	10	48	184	12	3	0	218	290	324	615	106	298	28	7	264	67	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2448	2193	454	71	19	33	184	696	53	10	8	207	284	302	586	95	285	28	8	267	67	-84	+0	-4	+42	+51	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	121	19	5	9	49	185	14	3	2	208	285	304	589	96	286	28	8	267	67	-23	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.9	1,254	17	5	212	283	308	+22	+16	1.2	1.2
/162	664	9	3	+11.9	+8.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Herron (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	200/273/274	75	288	1	1	30%	7%	58	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	37	181/234/253	73	279	6	3	36%	6%	38	-3.2	211/265/312	101	293	9	3	29%	6%	63	-1.4	217/276/324	107	289	10	0	27%	7%	67	-0.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	48→30	39	187/246/269	82	279	3	5	32%	6%	46	-2.6	191/250/294	103	282	9	4	34%	5%	54	-2.0	178/238/288	110	257	11	1	34%	4%	47	-2.0
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2006 · AA	23	38	37→40	45→40	41	181/243/253	71	264	4	7	31%	7%	41	-3.0	191/243/270	79	272	5	4	30%	5%	45	-2.7	210/276/290	80	290	6	0	28%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Andy Yerzy 2021 · A	23	35	38→50	49→40	35	174/226/251	77	275	5	7	37%	5%	34	-3.5	188/272/333	145	263	18	6	34%	9%	72	-0.7	166/252/300	134	233	18	4	36%	9%	55	-1.0
✕Vicente Conde 2017 · AA	23	40→35	39→40	46→45	44	193/259/279	85	278	5	7	31%	8%	53	-2.1	176/250/260	84	258	6	6	31%	9%	46	-2.6	104/202/173	69	167	5	2	38%	10%	8	-1.6
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	179/213/275	95	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/264/299	83	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Sibrian 2022 · A	23	41	36→50	48→30	37	195/240/258	63	274	3	5	29%	4%	41	-3.0	209/269/304	95	272	8	3	25%	5%	63	-1.4	211/275/320	108	261	11	0	23%	5%	66	-0.5
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→45	45→40	34	174/222/255	81	277	7	4	39%	5%	34	-3.5	184/241/265	81	306	8	5	40%	6%	44	-2.8	141/191/216	75	260	9	0	47%	5%	11	-1.0
✕Bobby Wernes 2017 · A	23	40	35→45	46→40	45	191/247/249	59	252	2	6	24%	7%	41	-3.0	213/270/306	93	274	6	6	23%	6%	63	-1.4	218/284/324	106	265	7	3	19%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Coty Blanchard 2015 · A	23	41	36→40	48→45	47	192/261/260	67	258	2	6	25%	8%	50	-2.3	227/277/301	74	309	3	7	26%	6%	64	-1.3	246/290/315	69	329	2	7	24%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Daniel Berg 2008 · A	23	37	39→40	45→40	39	180/245/262	82	274	6	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	203/273/290	87	311	6	4	34%	7%	61	-1.5	202/279/286	84	310	6	2	34%	7%	60	-0.7
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/243	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	33	-3.6	182/236/280	98	272	10	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	205/259/305	100	287	9	2	30%	5%	56	-0.6
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	183/249/251	68	277	3	8	33%	7%	43	-2.8	179/238/250	71	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	192/262/321	129	263	16	1	32%	7%	61	-0.6
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	39	37→40	44→45	39	187/248/259	72	259	4	4	28%	5%	45	-2.7	223/289/310	87	301	6	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	241/310/327	86	323	6	5	25%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Shane Carlson 2010 · A	23	41	35→45	48→45	37	196/245/259	63	287	3	9	31%	5%	42	-2.9	222/261/311	89	277	6	8	21%	4%	61	-1.5	235/265/330	95	278	6	6	17%	3%	65	-0.6
✕Anthony Hermelyn 2017 · A	23	35	39→40	41→30	40	174/240/256	82	275	7	3	37%	8%	41	-3.0	198/260/283	85	284	7	4	30%	8%	55	-2.0	191/256/259	68	261	5	0	27%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Logan Moore 2014 · A	23	34	38→40	43→30	40	170/229/243	73	244	5	4	32%	6%	34	-3.5	198/247/282	84	271	6	3	28%	6%	49	-2.4	191/238/275	84	266	9	0	30%	6%	42	-1.1
✕Alberto Espinosa 2009 · A	22	38	37→40	45→40	39	185/229/254	69	260	4	4	30%	5%	36	-3.4	203/257/280	77	289	4	5	29%	6%	52	-2.2	202/259/279	77	284	2	2	28%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39→40	39→45	49→45	36	186/240/271	86	298	6	9	38%	6%	44	-2.8	182/266/288	106	256	11	5	31%	9%	59	-1.6	164/257/264	101	226	11	3	30%	10%	49	-1.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps