Tyler Herron — OGILVIE

Tyler HerronC FCL Rays

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 94 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .272 / .273

PA94

HR1

K%30

BB%7

ISO75

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	110	95	11	1	1	0	8	35	7	0	3	116	236	147	384	32	183	32	7	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	110	91	14	1	1	0	12	24	7	0	3	154	300	187	487	33	209	22	11	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TB	—	94	85	18	3	1	1	7	28	2	1	0	212	287	306	593	94	288	30	7	253	52	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TB	30%	163	147	30	5	1	2	12	48	3	2	1	204	278	293	570	88	290	29	7	263	60	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2028	25	MLB	TB	44%	264	238	49	8	2	3	19	76	5	2	1	206	279	294	573	88	290	29	7	269	64	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.2
2029	26	MLB	TB	51%	335	300	64	10	3	5	25	96	7	3	1	213	289	317	606	103	290	29	7	273	67	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.3
2030	27	MLB	TB	52%	372	334	71	11	3	6	28	106	7	3	1	213	287	317	605	105	290	28	8	274	68	-13	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.4
2031	28	MLB	TB	53%	394	353	75	12	3	6	30	113	8	4	1	212	289	314	603	102	290	29	8	273	67	-15	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.3
2032	29	MLB	TB	53%	400	358	75	12	3	6	31	115	8	3	1	209	287	310	597	101	289	29	8	271	66	-15	+0	-1	+7	+11	0.2
2027	24	MLB	TB	30%	49	44	9	1	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	205	286	295	581	91	294	29	8	250	49	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	TB	44%	117	105	21	3	1	1	9	34	2	1	0	200	276	276	552	76	295	29	8	256	54	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	TB	51%	170	152	33	5	2	2	13	49	3	2	1	217	292	316	607	99	295	29	8	260	57	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2030	27	MLB	TB	52%	195	174	38	6	2	3	15	55	4	2	1	218	295	328	623	109	295	28	8	262	59	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2031	28	MLB	TB	53%	210	188	40	6	2	3	16	60	4	2	1	213	288	314	602	101	294	29	8	261	58	-10	+0	-0	+4	+6	-0.1
2032	29	MLB	TB	53%	210	188	40	6	2	3	16	60	4	2	1	213	288	314	602	101	293	29	8	259	56	-10	+0	-1	+4	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	951	851	181	27	9	13	73	272	18	9	4	213	289	311	600	99	294	29	8	259	57	-46	+0	-1	+17	+27	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	123	18	6	9	50	186	12	6	3	211	287	309	597	98	292	29	8	259	57	-32	+0	-1	+12	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	2132	1910	393	62	17	29	160	617	47	18	9	206	283	302	585	96	286	29	8	266	62	-93	+0	-2	+38	+60	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	120	19	5	9	49	188	14	5	3	206	284	302	586	96	286	29	8	266	62	-28	-0	-1	+12	+18	0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	22	19	1	0	1	0	2	5	1	0	0	53	182	158	340	105	71	23	9	170	-11	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	22	ROK	FCL Rays	—	88	72	13	1	0	0	10	19	6	0	3	181	330	194	524	14	245	22	11	267	63	-4	-1	—	—	+2	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,044	14	9	211	283	308	+19	+16	0.7	0.7
	/162	664	9	6	211	283	308	+11.9	+10.2	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Herron (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	198/272/273	75	288	1	1	30%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Alejandro Torres 2012 · A	23	37	37→40	46→40	35	182/219/253	71	267	4	5	33%	4%	22	-3.7	205/260/281	76	311	5	6	33%	6%	48	-1.9	198/265/228	30	313	0	0	34%	8%	37	-0.5
✕Shane Zeile 2016 · A	23	39	38→50	48→40	40	191/244/271	79	266	5	4	29%	6%	38	-2.6	209/257/321	112	282	9	6	28%	5%	57	-1.2	201/247/350	149	258	12	3	27%	4%	59	-0.4
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	34	40→45	53→50	34	176/209/269	93	256	6	9	34%	4%	22	-3.7	215/263/298	83	301	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Ben Gobbel 2023 · A	23	41→40	36→50	47→50	41	197/258/265	68	279	4	7	29%	6%	43	-2.2	211/270/330	119	289	13	13	30%	6%	66	-0.6	213/262/352	139	271	17	12	28%	4%	64	-0.4
✕Grayson Greiner 2016 · A	23	37	38→45	46→30	35	180/230/254	74	285	6	3	38%	6%	28	-3.2	209/261/311	102	295	9	3	31%	6%	56	-1.3	214/272/324	110	288	10	0	28%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Jose Sibrian 2022 · A	23	41	36→50	48→30	37	195/241/258	63	273	3	5	29%	4%	33	-2.9	203/264/294	91	266	8	3	26%	5%	53	-1.5	201/265/302	101	250	10	0	23%	5%	53	-0.6
✕Chris Hess 2018 · A	23	39→34	37→45	49→30	38	187/245/270	83	282	3	5	33%	6%	39	-2.5	194/251/308	114	284	11	4	34%	4%	52	-1.6	181/239/309	128	257	14	1	34%	4%	46	-1.6
✕Andy Paz 2016 · A	23	38	37→40	48→45	42	185/247/254	69	274	5	6	33%	8%	36	-2.7	220/269/285	65	296	4	7	25%	6%	52	-1.6	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Matt Pagnozzi 2006 · AA	23	38	37→45	45→40	41	181/243/252	71	265	4	7	31%	7%	33	-2.9	190/242/270	80	271	5	4	30%	5%	37	-2.6	208/275/286	79	292	6	0	29%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Blake Hunt 2022 · AA	23	35	43→50	48→40	39	178/241/285	107	272	11	4	37%	7%	42	-2.3	203/260/325	122	275	13	4	30%	6%	60	-1.0	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Vicente Conde 2017 · AA	23	40→34	39→45	46→45	44	192/257/281	88	278	6	7	32%	8%	46	-2.0	176/250/262	86	262	7	6	32%	9%	40	-2.4	103/200/175	72	170	6	2	40%	10%	-4	-1.7
✕Andrés Alvarez 2021 · A	24	41→30	37→45	48→50	42	195/261/270	74	275	4	7	29%	7%	46	-2.0	201/266/321	120	293	13	15	34%	7%	62	-0.9	177/245/298	121	254	15	15	35%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Nick Quintana 2021 · A	23	39	40→45	50→45	37	189/243/279	90	293	7	9	36%	6%	40	-2.4	181/265/289	108	254	11	5	31%	9%	54	-1.4	161/255/263	101	223	11	3	31%	10%	40	-1.3
✕Connor Justus 2018 · A	23	41→37	38→40	46→45	45	193/275/270	77	281	5	9	31%	8%	53	-1.5	176/256/248	72	256	5	8	31%	8%	40	-2.4	158/238/217	59	235	4	6	32%	7%	21	-2.5
✕Rowdey Jordan 2022 · A	23	43→42	39→45	43→55	43	202/267/285	82	298	6	8	32%	8%	52	-1.6	204/274/318	114	284	11	18	30%	8%	64	-0.8	199/268/331	132	272	16	23	31%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Carter Aldrete 2021 · A	23	45→40	39→50	47→45	46	215/284/300	86	293	6	7	27%	8%	63	-0.8	207/257/338	131	294	16	6	34%	6%	62	-0.9	199/248/343	144	272	19	5	34%	6%	57	-0.8