Jason Hernandez — OGILVIE

Jason HernandezIF DSL Padres Gold

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .273 / .295

PA38

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	6	1	0	2	3	23	3	1	0	125	222	271	493	146	174	43	6	219	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	126	21	2	1	1	11	45	7	8	4	167	271	222	493	56	247	31	8	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	8	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		167	50	12	140	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	SD	—	38	34	6	1	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	176	263	206	469	29	287	29	8	261	58	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SD	34%	124	112	24	4	1	2	9	36	2	2	0	214	285	321	606	107	289	29	7	272	66	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	SD	48%	267	240	53	9	2	5	20	76	5	4	1	221	294	338	632	117	290	28	7	280	72	-8	+0	+0	+0	+8	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	SD	54%	369	332	74	12	3	8	28	103	6	6	1	223	295	349	644	127	291	28	8	285	76	-10	+1	+0	+0	+10	0.1
2030	24	MLB	SD	55%	438	395	87	14	3	9	33	121	7	7	2	220	292	339	631	119	292	28	8	288	79	-11	+1	+0	+0	+12	0.3
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	479	432	96	16	3	11	36	132	8	8	2	222	294	350	644	127	293	28	8	290	80	-11	+1	+0	+0	+14	0.4
2027	21	MLB	SD	34%	43	39	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	1	0	205	279	308	587	103	286	28	7	256	54	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	SD	48%	129	117	25	4	1	2	9	36	2	2	0	214	281	316	597	103	287	28	7	264	60	-6	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	SD	54%	200	180	38	6	1	4	15	56	3	3	1	211	283	322	605	111	288	28	8	269	64	-8	+0	+0	+0	+6	-0.2
2030	24	MLB	SD	55%	243	219	48	8	2	5	18	67	4	4	1	219	290	342	633	123	289	28	7	272	67	-9	+0	+0	+0	+7	-0.2
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	268	242	54	9	2	6	20	74	4	4	1	223	293	351	644	128	289	28	7	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+0	+8	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	883	797	173	28	6	18	65	245	14	14	3	217	288	335	623	118	288	28	7	270	65	-35	+2	+0	+0	+25	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	127	21	4	13	48	180	10	10	2	216	287	332	619	116	287	28	7	270	65	-26	+1	+0	+0	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	1930	1733	368	59	13	38	145	555	39	38	10	212	288	327	615	115	287	29	8	277	70	-65	+4	+0	+0	+55	-0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	124	20	4	13	49	187	13	13	3	212	288	327	615	115	287	29	8	277	70	-22	+1	+0	+0	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	105	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	112	+2	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	45	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	921	19	15	221	289	341	+0	+0	0.3	0.4
	/162	664	14	11	221	289	341	+0.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jason Hernandez (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	204/273/295	91	287	0	1	30%	7%	58	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→46	39→55	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	56	-1.3	215/291/294	79	285	6	17	24%	8%	66	-0.6	226/298/350	124	305	12	20	28%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	53	-1.5	203/253/290	87	301	6	4	33%	4%	47	-1.9	213/250/309	96	311	7	2	33%	3%	47	-1.0
✕Stanley Martinez 2017 · A	20	40	38→45	48→50	45	192/266/269	77	269	5	10	29%	8%	48	-1.9	216/284/317	101	292	9	7	27%	7%	68	-0.5	213/282/313	100	281	9	5	26%	7%	65	-0.2
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	43	39→40	53→55	44	205/260/298	92	275	5	6	27%	7%	52	-1.6	224/299/302	78	328	5	17	30%	8%	70	-0.3	213/301/307	94	348	8	27	37%	9%	69	-0.1
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	53	-1.5	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.2	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Alexis Hernandez 2023 · A	20	40	38→50	47→50	46	191/256/270	79	241	6	11	23%	7%	44	-2.1	209/284/304	95	294	8	17	30%	8%	65	-0.7	196/277/321	126	268	14	17	31%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Matthew Lugo 2021 · A	20	43→48	37→55	51→50	40	202/261/274	72	302	4	7	33%	6%	46	-2.0	224/270/332	108	304	9	11	28%	5%	65	-0.7	217/267/376	159	280	18	17	29%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2011 · A	20	41	40→45	50	42	202/257/291	89	262	7	13	26%	6%	49	-1.8	224/280/353	129	280	13	10	24%	6%	76	+0.0	226/277/353	127	285	14	8	25%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2012 · A	20	45	40→45	52→50	42	210/275/309	99	310	7	12	33%	7%	62	-0.9	192/263/287	95	292	7	14	34%	8%	52	-1.6	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Franklin Paz 2011 · A	20	42	40→50	53→50	44	204/270/305	101	280	7	12	28%	7%	59	-1.1	209/265/324	115	278	11	11	28%	6%	62	-0.9	193/244/323	130	242	15	12	27%	5%	49	-0.8