Jason Hernandez

IF DSL Padres Gold

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Padres Br…	54	.191/.296/.426	3	1	14	—	.104/.204/.188
2024	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	145	.244/.375/.336	1	8	34	—	.152/.264/.208
2025	19	ROKDSL Padres Go…	16	.154/.312/.154	0	1	-10	—	.071/.188/.071
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBSD	126	.206/.280/.280	1	2	61	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSD	24	.207/.281/.289	0	0	65	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj PA

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .277 / .278

PA22

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO74

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	135	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	143	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	47	9	2	0	3	4	16	3	1	0	191	296	426	722	234	214	30	7	323	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	202	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	119	29	4	2	1	18	28	7	8	4	244	375	336	711	92	308	19	12	331	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		125	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	13	2	0	0	0	3	5	0	1	0	154	312	154	466		250	31	19	244	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	54	48	5	1	0	1	3	19	3	1	0	104	204	188	391	83	135	35	6	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	145	125	19	2	1	1	12	36	7	8	4	152	264	208	472	56	203	25	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	16	14	1	0	0	0	2	6	0	1	0	71	188	71	259		159	38	12	153	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	126	114	23	3	1	1	9	35	2	2	0	206	280	280	560	74	287	28	7	258	61	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	70	64	14	2	1	1	5	19	1	1	0	210	284	294	577	83	289	27	7	265	65	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	207	281	289	570	82	284	29	8	261	65	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	182	250	227	477	45	267	29	8	261	37	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	108	27	0	0	54	190	0	0	0	181	249	227	476	45	266	29	8	261	37	-27	+0	+0	+0	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	307	271	43	6	2	3	24	86	11	11	4	159	255	229	484	70	219	28	8	223	37	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	91	13	4	6	51	182	23	23	8	159	255	226	481	68	219	28	8	223	37	-28	+1	+0	+0	+14	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 16 PAwOBA .239 → .153 (−86)K% 31.2% → 39.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.25%	÷0.970	×1.220	—	—	39.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.75%	÷1.049	×0.700	—	×0.995	12.45%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.064	×0.680	—	×0.995	15.90%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.159	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.049	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 113, 2B 132, 3B 110, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .239 → .153; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .159. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Padres Gold · 145 PAwOBA .326 → .218 (−109)K% 19.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.31%	÷0.952	×1.220	—	—	24.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.41%	÷1.022	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.57%
HBP% /PA	4.83%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.40%
Singles /BIP	24.18%	÷1.015	×0.680	×1.022	×1.008	16.67%
Doubles /BIP	4.40%	÷1.072	×0.600	×1.022	×1.008	2.53%
Triples /BIP	2.20%	÷1.096	×0.600	×1.022	×1.008	1.24%
Home runs /BIP	1.10%	÷0.909	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.57%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 119, K 90, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .326 → .218; ISO .092 → .052; BABIP .308 → .203. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Padres Brown · 54 PAwOBA .314 → .189 (−125)K% 29.6% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.63%	÷1.001	×1.220	—	—	36.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷0.992	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.35%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.98%
Singles /BIP	12.90%	÷0.968	×0.680	—	×1.022	9.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.101	×0.600	—	×1.022	3.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.029	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.68%	÷0.929	×0.470	—	×1.022	5.01%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 106, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .314 → .189; ISO .234 → .117; BABIP .214 → .135. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).