Ariel Lebron — OGILVIE

Ariel LebronOF DSL Astros Blue

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .288 / .292

PA8

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	152	+8	-1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	151	+7	+3	—	—	+2	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	104	29	1	2	0	8	29	17	5	6	279	419	327	746	48	342	22	6	314	99	-0	-1	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	21	6	0	1	7	30	9	16	1	226	339	323	662	97	287	27	6	281	76	-3	+3	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	104	29	1	2	0	8	29	17	5	6	279	419	327	746	48	382	22	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	21	6	0	1	7	30	9	16	1	226	339	323	662	97	317	27	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	105	29	1	2	0	8	29	17	5	6	276	419	324	742	48	342	22	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	94	21	6	0	1	7	30	9	16	1	223	339	319	659	96	287	27	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	105	29	1	2	0	8	29	17	5	6	276	419	324	742	48	342	22	6	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	94	21	6	0	1	7	30	9	16	1	223	339	319	659	96	287	27	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		289	25	12	270	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	177	157	34	6	1	2	13	47	5	5	1	217	297	306	603	89	291	27	7	280	75	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	297	266	59	10	2	5	21	77	8	9	2	222	298	331	629	109	292	26	7	287	80	-7	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	381	340	77	13	3	7	28	98	10	12	2	226	304	344	648	118	293	26	7	292	84	-7	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	431	385	86	14	3	8	32	111	11	13	2	223	301	338	639	114	293	26	7	295	86	-7	+2	+0	-3	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	462	413	93	15	3	9	34	118	12	14	3	225	303	341	644	116	293	26	7	296	87	-7	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	475	423	96	16	3	10	36	122	13	14	3	227	307	350	657	123	293	26	8	296	87	-8	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	479	427	97	16	3	10	36	124	13	14	3	227	307	349	656	122	292	26	8	295	86	-8	+2	-1	-3	+10	0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	475	423	94	15	3	9	36	124	13	14	3	222	303	336	639	113	291	26	8	293	85	-9	+2	-1	-3	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	61	55	12	2	0	1	4	16	2	2	0	218	295	309	604	91	293	26	7	259	75	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	144	129	29	5	1	2	10	37	4	4	1	225	301	326	626	101	294	26	7	267	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	201	179	41	7	1	4	15	52	5	6	1	229	307	346	653	117	295	26	7	273	84	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	236	211	49	8	2	5	17	61	6	7	1	232	308	360	668	128	295	26	7	276	86	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	257	229	53	9	2	5	19	66	7	8	1	231	310	354	664	122	295	26	7	277	87	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	261	232	53	9	2	5	20	67	7	8	1	228	309	349	658	121	295	26	8	277	87	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	262	233	53	9	2	5	20	68	7	8	1	227	308	348	655	120	294	26	8	276	86	-4	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	253	225	51	8	2	5	19	66	7	7	1	227	307	347	653	120	293	26	8	274	85	-5	+1	-1	-2	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1675	1493	341	57	12	32	124	433	45	50	7	228	307	347	654	119	299	26	7	274	85	-30	+7	-1	-10	+36	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	132	22	5	12	48	168	17	19	3	228	305	345	651	117	299	26	7	274	85	-12	+3	-0	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3427	3038	687	112	23	61	252	882	111	116	26	226	309	338	647	112	297	26	7	293	85	-59	+11	-2	-19	+69	0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	130	21	4	12	48	167	21	22	5	226	309	339	647	113	295	26	7	293	85	-12	+2	-0	-4	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,770	33	53	226	302	342	-11	+0	1.2	1.3
/162	664	13	20	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Lebron (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	210/288/292	82	289	1	3	27%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Maikel Garcia 2021 · A	21	43→53	36→50	51→60	42	203/261/270	67	295	3	13	31%	7%	51	-2.2	244/303/338	94	314	6	24	22%	8%	82	+0.0	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	48	209/283/307	98	259	8	11	22%	8%	70	-0.9	206/261/321	115	251	13	9	23%	6%	63	-1.3	248/292/385	137	277	15	10	16%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	47→51	41→55	51→50	46	226/283/325	100	287	8	13	24%	7%	72	-0.7	221/279/309	88	288	6	11	24%	7%	67	-1.1	225/289/385	159	278	18	15	25%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Samad Taylor 2019 · A	21	38→48	41→45	54→65	45	190/253/296	106	249	8	22	26%	7%	55	-1.9	192/267/308	116	292	10	25	35%	8%	63	-1.3	235/311/365	130	323	13	46	29%	9%	92	+0.4
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→48	42→50	56→50	42	223/275/338	115	301	9	15	28%	6%	72	-0.7	214/270/329	115	284	10	12	27%	6%	69	-0.9	226/275/366	139	277	16	14	24%	5%	77	-0.3
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→50	49→45	38	202/267/313	110	283	10	12	31%	5%	65	-1.2	202/243/314	112	256	13	7	26%	4%	55	-1.9	240/273/379	139	275	15	8	19%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→47	39→50	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	217/292/295	78	287	5	17	24%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/346	119	306	11	20	28%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Sam McWilliams 2019 · A	21	46→52	39→50	54→50	43	214/280/307	92	310	5	15	31%	7%	68	-1.0	212/272/316	104	331	8	9	36%	7%	66	-1.1	238/303/391	153	379	16	10	38%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Maximo Rivera 2014 · A	21	46	39→45	53→60	43	222/276/307	85	284	7	21	24%	6%	65	-1.2	213/264/284	71	299	4	10	28%	6%	55	-1.9	202/246/250	47	282	3	7	28%	5%	37	-0.9
✕Yeison Asencio 2011 · A	21	40→50	41→45	49→45	45	198/259/301	103	247	8	11	23%	6%	59	-1.7	246/277/364	118	285	9	8	17%	3%	78	-0.3	276/296/387	112	301	11	6	13%	2%	89	+0.5
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2017 · A	21	44→38	39→50	55	45	208/278/297	89	275	6	19	25%	7%	65	-1.2	201/273/331	130	270	13	18	29%	7%	71	-0.8	188/266/323	135	254	14	19	30%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Eguy Rosario 2021 · A	21	44→52	42→55	49→55	39	214/259/321	107	292	9	12	29%	5%	63	-1.4	228/287/365	137	303	13	20	28%	7%	84	+0.1	224/286/367	142	294	14	21	28%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	43→51	40→45	59→55	40	207/258/309	101	292	7	20	30%	6%	59	-1.7	225/281/337	112	302	8	18	27%	6%	74	-0.5	227/288/340	113	297	9	18	25%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2018 · A	21	48→55	37→50	54→50	44	228/281/304	76	293	4	16	23%	6%	66	-1.1	240/299/360	120	301	9	13	22%	7%	86	+0.3	257/314/398	140	314	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	44→46	43→55	53→50	40	217/263/333	116	270	11	16	24%	5%	67	-1.1	216/266/341	125	279	12	9	27%	5%	70	-0.8	223/280/397	174	256	23	3	23%	6%	88	+0.3
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Emmanuel Rivera 2017 · A	21	40→50	37→55	49→45	43	191/249/267	76	265	3	10	28%	7%	47	-2.6	240/277/346	106	302	8	5	23%	4%	74	-0.5	243/299/400	157	290	18	4	22%	7%	94	+0.6
●Edward Olivares 2017 · A	21	42→52	40→55	52→55	42	204/281/299	95	271	7	14	26%	6%	68	-1.0	220/264/352	132	278	13	15	25%	4%	72	-0.7	262/319/433	171	298	19	16	19%	6%	108	+1.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps