Ariel Lebron — OGILVIE

Ariel LebronOF DSL Astros Blue

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 95 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .287 / .292

PA95

HR1

K%27

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	104	29	1	2	0	8	28	17	5	6	279	419	327	746	48	377	21	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	159	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	21	6	0	1	7	30	9	16	1	226	339	323	662	97	317	27	6	280	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	HOU	—	95	86	18	3	1	1	6	26	3	2	0	209	284	302	587	93	289	27	6	269	64	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	177	158	34	6	1	2	12	47	5	4	1	215	291	304	595	89	291	27	7	279	72	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	297	266	59	10	2	5	21	78	8	6	1	222	298	331	629	109	292	26	7	286	77	-8	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	381	340	77	13	3	7	28	99	10	8	1	226	304	344	648	118	293	26	7	291	81	-8	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.2
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	431	385	86	14	3	8	32	112	11	9	2	223	301	338	639	114	293	26	7	294	83	-8	+1	+0	-3	+12	0.2
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	462	413	93	15	3	9	34	120	12	10	2	225	303	341	644	116	293	26	7	296	84	-8	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	475	424	96	16	3	10	35	124	13	10	2	226	305	349	654	123	293	26	7	296	84	-8	+1	+0	-3	+13	0.3
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	479	427	96	16	3	10	36	125	13	10	2	225	305	347	651	122	293	26	8	295	84	-9	+1	-1	-3	+14	0.2
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	61	55	12	2	0	1	4	16	2	1	0	218	295	309	604	91	293	26	7	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	144	129	29	5	1	2	10	38	4	3	1	225	301	326	626	101	295	26	7	268	64	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	201	179	41	7	1	4	15	52	5	4	1	229	307	346	653	117	296	26	7	274	68	-7	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.2
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	236	211	49	8	2	5	17	61	6	5	1	232	308	360	668	128	296	26	7	277	70	-8	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.2
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	257	229	53	9	2	5	19	67	7	6	1	231	310	354	664	122	296	26	7	279	72	-8	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	261	233	54	9	2	6	19	68	7	6	1	232	309	365	674	133	296	26	7	279	72	-8	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.2
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	262	233	53	9	2	5	20	68	7	5	1	227	308	348	655	120	295	26	8	278	71	-9	+1	-0	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1422	1269	291	49	10	28	104	370	38	30	6	229	307	350	657	121	300	26	7	276	69	-49	+4	-0	-9	+40	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	133	22	5	13	48	169	17	14	3	229	307	352	659	122	299	26	7	276	69	-23	+2	-0	-4	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	3039	2696	609	100	21	53	219	789	101	80	18	226	308	338	646	112	298	26	7	292	82	-62	+9	-1	-18	+86	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	129	21	4	11	47	169	22	17	4	224	307	331	638	107	295	26	7	292	82	-13	+2	-0	-4	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	159	+9	-1	—	—	+4	1.1
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	158	+7	+3	—	—	+3	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#1Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,517	28	33	225	300	341	-9	+0	0.5	0.7
	/162	664	12	14	225	300	341	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ariel Lebron (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	209/287/292	83	289	1	2	27%	7%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Oswald Peraza 2021 · A	21	44→52	38→50	52→60	42	214/270/290	76	279	6	17	25%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/375	140	299	17	28	26%	5%	84	+0.6	228/285/371	143	284	18	30	26%	6%	78	+0.2
●Felix Reyes 2022 · A	21	41→51	43→55	49→45	38	202/267/312	111	283	10	12	31%	5%	60	-1.0	204/245/317	113	258	13	7	26%	4%	51	-1.7	244/271/414	171	282	21	9	22%	3%	86	+0.5
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
●Cody Freeman 2022 · A	21	43→53	41→50	53→50	47	208/281/306	98	256	9	11	22%	7%	64	-0.8	203/257/317	114	247	12	9	23%	6%	56	-1.3	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→46	39→55	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	56	-1.3	215/291/294	79	285	6	17	24%	8%	66	-0.6	226/298/350	124	305	12	20	28%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Emmanuel Rivera 2017 · A	21	40→50	37→55	49→45	43	191/249/267	76	265	3	10	28%	7%	40	-2.4	244/280/355	111	307	9	5	23%	4%	75	-0.0	241/298/401	160	289	18	4	23%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Ryan Vilade 2021 · A	22	45→51	40→50	51→50	46	216/277/308	92	280	6	13	24%	7%	62	-0.9	210/269/296	86	277	5	11	24%	7%	56	-1.3	227/289/416	189	269	24	16	25%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Lane Adams 2011 · A	21	44→46	37→50	57→60	40	206/257/280	74	300	4	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	213/262/320	107	298	9	14	30%	6%	58	-1.2	228/279/363	136	311	16	36	31%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Matthew Lugo 2022 · A	21	47→48	38→55	51→50	39	222/271/303	81	310	6	10	29%	5%	58	-1.2	223/270/360	137	295	14	14	28%	5%	73	-0.1	217/267/376	159	280	18	17	29%	5%	72	-0.1
✕Franklin Labour 2019 · A	21	42	39→45	50	43	202/271/295	93	278	6	11	28%	7%	57	-1.2	192/266/288	96	314	7	8	38%	8%	53	-1.5	150/245/272	121	261	13	9	44%	10%	39	-1.0
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	43→47	42→55	53→50	40	213/260/324	111	270	9	16	24%	4%	59	-1.1	216/266/343	127	281	13	9	27%	4%	67	-0.5	226/284/408	182	256	25	3	23%	6%	91	+0.9
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	223/270/319	96	299	8	9	27%	5%	62	-0.9	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Ben Malgeri 2022 · A	22	46→45	40→50	51→50	39	216/275/313	96	317	7	11	33%	6%	63	-0.9	198/272/313	115	319	10	13	38%	7%	63	-0.9	234/294/381	147	332	14	14	32%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
●Leandro Castro 2010 · A	21	41→51	39→55	49→50	40	203/246/289	86	258	7	13	24%	4%	43	-2.2	223/256/341	118	271	10	12	22%	3%	61	-1.0	250/292/410	161	269	20	11	16%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Jefry Marte 2012 · A	21	44→47	39→55	48→50	39	212/256/298	87	279	7	8	26%	5%	50	-1.7	221/272/318	97	278	9	9	23%	6%	63	-0.9	222/284/396	174	250	22	8	21%	6%	86	+0.6
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→50	37→45	48→45	45	189/266/266	77	278	4	7	31%	8%	47	-1.9	210/282/308	98	299	8	5	30%	8%	65	-0.7	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3