Ariel Lebron

OF DSL Astros Blue

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 148 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKDSL Astros Or…	131	.313/.473/.364	0	5	84	—	.243/.395/.291
2025	20	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	111	.299/.440/.425	1	16	59	—	.196/.321/.283
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBHOU	221	.211/.289/.292	2	7	68	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBHOU	23	.218/.295/.308	0	1	71	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

wOBA88

wRC+84

Speed77

K%68

ISO67

Whiff%54

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj PA

wRC+†68

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .287 / .290

PA38

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	103	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	243	395	291	687	49	286	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	92	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	196	321	283	604	87	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	103	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	243	395	291	687	49	316	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	99	31	1	2	0	13	21	17	5	6	313	473	364	837	51	392	16	10	393	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	92	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	196	321	283	604	87	254	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	87	26	8	0	1	13	20	9	16	1	299	440	425	866	126	373	18	12	391	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	—	131	104	25	1	2	0	9	25	17	5	6	240	395	288	684	48	286	19	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	194	321	280	601	86	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	111	93	18	5	0	1	8	25	9	16	1	194	321	280	601	86	234	23	7	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	221	197	42	9	1	2	16	59	6	7	1	211	289	292	582	81	289	27	7	268	68	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	68	61	13	3	0	1	5	18	2	2	0	214	293	303	596	89	290	26	7	273	71	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	23	20	4	1	0	0	2	6	1	1	0	218	295	308	604	91	295	26	9	277	71	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	23	20	4	1	0	0	2	6	1	1	0	200	304	250	554	50	286	26	9	277	72	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	113	28	0	0	57	170	28	28	0	200	305	250	554	50	286	26	9	277	72	-22	+6	+0	-4	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	348	290	63	11	2	2	25	78	29	24	7	217	340	290	630	72	288	22	7	274	72	-4	+1	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	542	119	21	4	4	47	146	54	45	13	220	343	295	638	76	290	22	7	274	72	-23	+4	+0	-4	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 111 PAwOBA .383 → .255 (−128)K% 18.0% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.02%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	22.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.81%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.985	7.26%
HBP% /PA	8.11%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	5.59%
Singles /BIP	25.37%	÷0.996	×0.680	×0.975	×0.985	16.64%
Doubles /BIP	11.94%	÷0.997	×0.600	×0.975	×0.985	6.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.600	×0.975	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.49%	÷0.938	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.74%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 92, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.

Result: wOBA .383 → .255; ISO .126 → .075; BABIP .373 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Astros Orange · 131 PAwOBA .387 → .293 (−94)K% 16.0% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.03%	÷1.039	×1.220	—	—	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.92%	÷0.997	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.02%
HBP% /PA	12.98%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.15%
Singles /BIP	35.90%	÷0.982	×0.680	×1.049	×1.008	26.25%
Doubles /BIP	1.28%	÷0.905	×0.600	×1.049	×1.008	0.90%
Triples /BIP	2.56%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.049	×1.008	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.330	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 96, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 108, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.

Result: wOBA .387 → .293; ISO .051 → .039; BABIP .392 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).