Geisel Cepeda
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | A+TEX | 397 | .268/.343/.344 | 5 | 8 | 55 | — | .222/.275/.290 |
| 2024 | 26 | AATEX | 183 | .205/.293/.286 | 1 | 8 | 37 | — | .186/.249/.257 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 397 | 355 | 95 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 268 | 343 | 344 | 687 | 76 | 292 | 11 | 9 | 315 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 161 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 205 | 293 | 286 | 579 | 81 | 234 | 13 | 9 | 267 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 397 | 369 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 222 | 275 | 290 | 565 | 68 | 250 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 167 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 72 | 213 | 15 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 397 | 369 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 222 | 275 | 290 | 565 | 68 | 251 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 397 | 355 | 95 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 268 | 343 | 344 | 687 | 76 | 292 | 11 | 9 | 315 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 167 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 72 | 217 | 15 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 161 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 205 | 293 | 286 | 579 | 81 | 234 | 13 | 9 | 267 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 397 | 367 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 223 | 275 | 292 | 567 | 68 | 250 | 15 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 167 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 72 | 213 | 15 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 183 | 167 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 249 | 257 | 506 | 72 | 213 | 15 | 6 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 580 | 536 | 113 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 86 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 211 | 267 | 280 | 547 | 69 | 240 | 15 | 5 | 241 | 49 | -35 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +13 | -2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 127 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 96 | 11 | 18 | 8 | 211 | 267 | 281 | 549 | 70 | 240 | 15 | 5 | 241 | 49 | -39 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 183 PAwOBA .261 → .223 (−38)K% 12.6% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.57% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.29% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.94% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 14.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.25% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.72% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.53% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .261 → .223; ISO .081 → .069; BABIP .234 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 397 PAwOBA .308 → .249 (−60)K% 10.8% → 14.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.83% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 14.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.32% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 21.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.21% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 2.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.60% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .308 → .249; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .292 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).