Geisel Cepeda — OGILVIE

Geisel CepedaOF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA HR +15%BB +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 158 proj PA

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .293 / .343

PA13

HR0

K%20

BB%7

ISO116

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	25	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	355	95	10	1	5	34	43	7	8	7	268	343	344	687	76	292	11	9	315	100	-0	-1	—	—	+9	0.7
2024	26	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	161	33	10	0	1	17	23	3	8	0	205	293	286	579	81	234	13	9	267	67	-7	+2	—	—	+4	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	366	87	9	1	4	23	59	7	8	7	238	295	301	596	63	270	15	6	264	65	-17	-1	—	—	+9	-0.9
2024	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	167	32	9	0	1	11	28	3	8	0	192	254	263	518	72	221	15	6	229	41	-13	+2	—	—	+4	-0.7
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	366	87	9	1	4	23	59	7	8	7	238	295	301	596	63	273	15	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	355	95	10	1	5	34	43	7	8	7	268	343	344	687	76	292	11	9	315	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	167	32	9	0	1	11	28	3	8	0	192	254	263	518	72	225	15	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	161	33	10	0	1	17	23	3	8	0	205	293	286	579	81	234	13	9	267	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	364	87	9	1	4	23	59	7	8	7	239	295	302	598	63	270	15	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	167	32	9	0	1	11	28	3	8	0	192	254	263	518	72	221	15	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	A+ MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	364	87	9	1	4	23	59	7	8	7	239	295	302	598	63	270	15	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	167	32	9	0	1	11	28	3	8	0	192	254	263	518	72	221	15	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	28	MLB MLE	TEX	2%	13	12	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	250	308	333	641	83	273	23	8	289	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	23%	202	183	42	8	1	4	15	42	2	4	1	230	295	350	645	120	274	21	7	290	83	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	23%	46	42	10	2	0	1	3	9	1	1	0	238	304	357	661	119	276	20	7	285	83	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	46	42	10	2	0	1	3	9	1	1	0	238	304	357	661	119	281	20	7	285	64	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	141	28	0	14	42	127	14	14	0	238	303	356	659	118	281	20	6	285	64	-13	+3	-5	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	795	728	164	27	2	9	50	132	12	20	8	225	286	305	591	80	263	17	6	263	64	-4	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	134	22	2	7	41	108	10	16	7	225	286	304	591	79	263	17	6	263	64	-13	+1	-4	-4	+14	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Geisel Cepeda (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	228/293/343	115	273	3	3	20%	7%	82	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jerad Head 2010 · AA	27	45→44	44→50	50	40	223/281/350	126	282	11	11	24%	5%	78	-0.3	229/279/377	148	283	16	7	25%	4%	84	+0.1	223/275/375	152	272	18	7	25%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	43→45	47→45	53→55	49	218/294/356	138	264	15	16	23%	8%	84	+0.2	221/293/346	125	274	14	24	24%	8%	82	-0.0	215/286/326	111	267	12	28	23%	8%	73	-0.5
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2013 · AAA	28	44→53	45	50→55	45	219/274/337	118	267	12	13	23%	6%	72	-0.7	218/269/339	121	264	12	12	22%	6%	71	-0.8	208/252/318	110	249	9	10	20%	4%	56	-1.2
✕Alex Call 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	46→50	48→50	48	218/284/345	127	257	14	14	21%	8%	78	-0.3	226/320/367	141	263	15	15	19%	11%	97	+1.1	238/341/359	122	289	11	12	20%	12%	103	+0.8
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	45→51	44→45	47→50	49	222/297/340	118	275	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.0	213/291/335	122	306	12	11	32%	8%	79	-0.2	194/280/309	115	286	11	9	33%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Andy Burns 2019 · AAA	28	43→53	42→50	49→55	43	212/258/318	106	266	9	14	24%	6%	61	-1.5	225/297/365	140	276	16	11	23%	9%	87	+0.4	199/279/320	121	257	13	10	27%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Carlos Moncrief 2017 · AAA	28	45→51	44→50	51→50	47	222/287/337	115	283	11	11	25%	8%	77	-0.3	221/280/328	107	301	9	10	28%	7%	72	-0.7	223/273/312	90	329	4	9	32%	6%	63	-0.5
✕Nate Spears 2013 · AAA	28	42→52	43→45	52→50	48	209/281/324	115	260	11	10	24%	8%	72	-0.7	215/277/316	101	289	8	11	27%	8%	68	-1.0	212/275/299	87	288	6	12	27%	8%	62	-0.5
✕Adam Fox 2009 · AAA	27	44	43→45	50→45	43	217/267/328	112	266	11	8	23%	6%	68	-1.0	205/253/332	127	255	14	9	25%	5%	63	-1.4	191/235/322	131	233	15	7	25%	5%	51	-1.0
✕Blake Gailen 2013 · AA	28	44	45→55	50	50	217/282/344	127	254	11	12	19%	8%	77	-0.3	225/292/370	145	249	15	12	16%	8%	86	+0.3	215/293/360	145	233	16	9	16%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Alfredo Marte 2017 · MLB	28	46→47	43→50	51→45	42	226/279/338	112	300	10	10	28%	6%	74	-0.6	223/284/345	122	283	13	13	25%	6%	78	-0.3	204/270/311	106	250	14	14	24%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Dustin Peterson 2023 · AAA	28	45→50	43→45	46→45	44	219/275/327	107	277	10	6	24%	6%	70	-0.8	206/265/336	130	277	15	7	30%	7%	69	-0.9	183/247/317	134	242	18	4	32%	7%	57	-0.8
✕David Matranga 2006 · AAA	29	44	43→45	48→50	50	214/291/334	120	268	10	13	23%	9%	78	-0.3	204/272/326	122	268	14	11	28%	7%	70	-0.9	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Daniel Carbonell 2019 · AA	28	45→53	43→50	47→55	38	222/263/332	110	293	10	11	27%	4%	67	-1.1	248/300/396	148	306	15	22	23%	6%	96	+1.0	264/316/430	166	318	17	31	22%	6%	107	+1.4
✕Deibinson Romero 2015 · AAA	28	45	45→50	47→40	48	224/291/346	122	274	12	3	23%	8%	81	-0.1	224/292/346	122	266	12	4	20%	8%	82	-0.0	221/292/336	115	250	13	1	17%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Quincy Latimore 2016 · AA	27	44→43	47→50	47→50	41	221/269/360	139	281	14	10	27%	6%	76	-0.4	208/258/334	126	277	15	7	29%	6%	65	-1.2	194/246/308	114	258	15	4	30%	6%	52	-1.6
✕Carlos Sosa 2009 · AAA	28	49	41→45	47→50	49	237/299/330	93	274	8	12	17%	7%	80	-0.2	245/307/344	99	272	7	11	12%	8%	86	+0.3	249/319/355	106	267	6	11	9%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Kevin Reese 2006 · AAA	28	49→50	45	52→50	48	241/301/374	133	277	10	13	17%	7%	91	+0.6	236/298/346	110	277	10	11	18%	6%	83	+0.1	233/296/323	90	274	9	9	18%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	45	227/276/368	141	273	16	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	246/296/363	117	287	12	7	18%	7%	86	+0.3	272/321/371	98	305	8	3	13%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Cody Strait 2010 · AA	27	45→48	44→50	51→55	41	224/268/347	123	288	11	16	26%	5%	72	-0.7	215/265/314	99	284	7	16	25%	6%	63	-1.3	171/221/244	73	232	0	24	25%	4%	28	-1.0