Geisel Cepeda — OGILVIE

Geisel CepedaOF Frisco RoughRiders

Age 28 R/R 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 158 proj PA

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .292 / .342

PA158

HR3

K%21

BB%7

ISO117

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	25	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	366	85	9	1	5	23	61	7	8	7	232	290	303	594	71	266	15	6	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	355	95	10	1	5	34	43	7	8	7	268	343	344	687	76	292	11	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	167	31	9	0	1	11	29	3	8	0	186	249	257	506	72	219	16	6	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	161	33	10	0	1	17	23	3	8	0	205	293	286	579	81	234	13	9	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	TEX	—	158	144	34	7	1	3	11	33	2	3	1	236	299	361	660	125	273	21	7	288	78	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TEX	23%	202	183	42	8	1	4	15	42	2	4	1	230	295	350	645	120	274	21	7	290	80	-5	+0	-1	-1	+6	-0.1
2027	29	MLB	TEX	23%	46	42	10	2	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	238	304	357	661	119	276	22	7	282	74	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	46	42	10	2	0	1	3	10	1	1	0	238	304	357	661	119	290	22	7	282	74	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	141	28	0	14	42	141	14	14	0	238	303	356	659	118	290	22	6	282	74	-19	+3	-5	-4	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	940	860	192	33	3	13	60	165	14	23	9	223	285	314	599	91	261	18	6	264	60	-42	+1	-1	-6	+27	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	133	23	2	9	41	114	10	16	6	224	285	314	599	91	262	18	6	264	60	-29	+1	-1	-4	+18	-1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	25	A+	Hickory Crawdads	—	397	355	95	10	1	5	34	43	7	8	7	268	343	344	687	76	292	11	9	315	100	-0	-1	—	—	+11	1.0
2024	26	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	183	161	33	10	0	1	17	23	3	8	0	205	293	286	579	81	234	13	9	267	63	-8	+2	—	—	+5	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Geisel Cepeda (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	226/292/342	116	273	3	3	21%	7%	78	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dustin Peterson 2023 · AAA	28	45→48	44→50	46→45	43	222/275/339	117	279	12	6	25%	6%	69	-0.4	206/264/350	144	277	18	7	32%	7%	68	-0.5	183/247/335	153	239	22	4	33%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA	28	46→50	44→45	47→50	49	225/299/344	120	279	11	13	23%	8%	82	+0.5	212/291/340	128	302	13	11	32%	8%	78	+0.2	192/281/315	123	279	13	9	33%	9%	65	-0.2
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2013 · AAA	28	42→52	46→45	50→55	44	213/266/336	123	261	14	13	24%	6%	65	-0.7	215/263/337	122	262	12	12	22%	5%	64	-0.8	200/244/303	103	243	9	10	21%	4%	43	-1.4
✕David Matranga 2006 · AAA	29	44	43→45	48→50	49	213/288/334	121	268	10	13	24%	8%	74	-0.1	204/270/325	121	268	14	11	28%	6%	65	-0.7	212/294/334	122	284	13	9	28%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Jerad Head 2010 · AA	27	45→46	45→55	50	40	223/281/352	129	283	11	11	25%	5%	76	+0.0	229/278/387	158	284	18	7	26%	4%	84	+0.6	221/273/386	164	270	20	7	26%	4%	79	+0.2
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA	27	42→45	48→45	53→55	48	215/291/358	143	260	16	16	24%	8%	82	+0.5	217/288/337	120	273	13	24	24%	8%	76	+0.0	211/282/316	105	266	12	28	24%	8%	65	-0.5
✕Carlos Moncrief 2017 · AAA	28	45→49	45→55	51→50	46	224/286/348	124	283	13	11	25%	8%	76	+0.1	221/277/331	110	302	10	10	28%	7%	68	-0.5	222/274/316	94	328	5	9	32%	7%	59	-0.4
✕Alex De Goti 2023 · AAA	28	44→47	42→45	51→50	49	214/289/322	109	281	8	8	26%	9%	71	-0.3	199/276/283	84	272	7	10	27%	9%	56	-1.3	177/262/235	58	247	4	10	27%	9%	36	-1.2
✕Adam Fox 2009 · AAA	27	43→44	44→50	50→45	43	216/267/332	116	267	12	8	24%	6%	64	-0.8	207/254/344	137	259	16	9	26%	5%	62	-0.9	194/237/339	145	237	18	7	27%	4%	50	-0.8
✕Yancarlo Angulo 2015 · AAA	28	48→51	42→45	48→55	39	233/285/339	105	295	9	10	24%	4%	73	-0.1	223/280/315	92	283	7	8	23%	5%	66	-0.6	217/279/300	83	275	6	6	22%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Andy Burns 2019 · AAA	28	42→52	42→50	49→55	41	210/252/318	108	269	9	14	25%	5%	54	-1.4	229/302/384	155	280	18	11	24%	9%	93	+1.3	204/283/338	134	261	15	10	27%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Nate Spears 2013 · AAA	28	42→52	44→45	52→50	48	209/281/326	118	261	11	10	24%	8%	69	-0.4	218/279/323	105	291	9	11	26%	7%	67	-0.5	218/281/312	94	292	7	12	26%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Johnni Turbo 2018 · AA	29	46→48	41→40	52→55	45	223/274/320	97	267	8	14	20%	6%	64	-0.8	227/272/312	85	292	6	15	23%	5%	60	-1.0	236/269/280	43	303	0	21	21%	4%	46	-0.5
✕Alfredo Marte 2017 · MLB	28	45→47	43→50	51→45	41	220/271/329	109	296	10	10	29%	6%	65	-0.7	221/279/349	128	282	15	13	26%	6%	74	-0.1	200/268/321	121	245	17	14	25%	6%	61	-0.3
✕Ryan Klosterman 2010 · AAA	28	43→45	42→45	50→55	44	213/272/316	104	275	9	15	26%	7%	63	-0.9	207/272/329	122	274	12	13	28%	7%	66	-0.6	160/272/270	110	236	10	19	33%	13%	50	-0.3
✕Carlos Sosa 2009 · AAA	28	49	42→45	47→50	49	238/298/337	99	274	10	12	17%	7%	79	+0.3	245/304/348	103	271	8	11	12%	7%	84	+0.6	251/322/364	113	267	8	11	9%	8%	94	+0.6
✕Ryan Cordell 2021 · MLB	29	42	45→50	49→50	41	213/268/337	124	286	13	11	30%	6%	66	-0.6	208/271/377	169	328	22	14	41%	7%	79	+0.3	153/218/323	171	234	27	18	47%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Jeff McVaney 2017 · AAA	27	48→50	41→45	50	47	228/296/331	103	277	7	14	20%	7%	76	+0.1	217/284/321	104	271	8	11	22%	6%	69	-0.4	178/244/259	81	232	5	6	24%	5%	33	-1.0
✕Alfredo Silverio 2014 · AA	27	47→49	48→55	48→50	42	235/271/387	152	277	14	10	21%	4%	80	+0.4	212/244/323	111	275	12	8	27%	4%	52	-1.6	204/233/309	105	259	12	7	26%	3%	42	-0.7
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	41	42→50	49→40	49	203/284/306	102	254	10	6	23%	8%	66	-0.6	210/295/336	126	275	13	5	27%	9%	79	+0.3	195/291/323	129	254	15	1	28%	10%	72	-0.1