Geisel CepedaOF
Frisco RoughRiders
Age 28
R/R
6'5" / 220 lbs
AA
K +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.1 · 2026
wRC+†82
AVG/OBP/SLG.234 / .297 / .348
PA158
HR3
K%18
BB%7
MLB%2%
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | — | — | — |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2034 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $-6M | $-10M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 397 | 369 | 84 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 58 | 7 | 8 | 7 | .228 | .280 | .295 | .576 | .068 | .257 | 15 | 5 | .255 | 53 | -21 | -1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | -1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 183 | 166 | 31 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 0 | .187 | .254 | .259 | .513 | .072 | .222 | 16 | 7 | .224 | 30 | -15 | +2 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 158 | 144 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .243 | .306 | .368 | .674 | .125 | .272 | 18 | 7 | .293 | 82 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB 9% | TEX | 202 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 37 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .235 | .300 | .355 | .655 | .120 | .273 | 18 | 7 | .294 | 83 | -4 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB 19% | TEX | 259 | 235 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .234 | .300 | .353 | .653 | .119 | .273 | 19 | 7 | .293 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -2 | -2 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB 29% | TEX | 270 | 245 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 53 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .233 | .299 | .347 | .645 | .114 | .273 | 20 | 7 | .291 | 81 | -6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB 40% | TEX | 267 | 242 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .231 | .298 | .347 | .645 | .116 | .272 | 20 | 7 | .287 | 78 | -7 | +0 | -4 | -2 | +8 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB 49% | TEX | 248 | 225 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 0 | .227 | .293 | .333 | .626 | .107 | .271 | 21 | 7 | .281 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -4 | -1 | +7 | -0.6 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB 63% | TEX | 213 | 194 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .216 | .280 | .314 | .594 | .098 | .269 | 22 | 7 | .275 | 69 | -8 | +0 | -5 | -1 | +6 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2197 | 2003 | 454 | 83 | 8 | 35 | 150 | 407 | 28 | 33 | 11 | .227 | .290 | .329 | .618 | .102 | .267 | 19 | 7 | .276 | 70 | -75 | +2 | -19 | -13 | +62 | -4.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 593 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 10 | 44 | 120 | 8 | 10 | 3 | .226 | .288 | .325 | .613 | .099 | .267 | 18 | 7 | .276 | 70 | -22 | +1 | -6 | -4 | +18 | -1.3 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 397 | 355 | 95 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 7 | .268 | .343 | .344 | .687 | .076 | .292 | 11 | 9 | .315 | 100 | -0 | -1 | — | — | +11 | 1.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 183 | 161 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | .205 | .293 | .286 | .579 | .081 | .234 | 13 | 9 | .267 | 63 | -8 | +2 | — | — | +5 | -0.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Geisel Cepeda (OGILVIE) | 28 | — | — | — | — | .234/.297/.348 | .114 | .272 | 3 | 3 | 18% | 7% | 82 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Carlos Sosa 2009 · AAA |
28 | 49 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 49 | .239/.299/.339 | .100 | .273 | 10 | 13 | 17% | 7% | 79 | +0.3 | .245/.305/.348 | .103 | .271 | 8 | 11 | 12% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .251/.322/.364 | .113 | .267 | 8 | 11 | 9% | 8% | 94 | +0.6 |
|
✕Christian Lopes 2021 · AAA |
28 | 45→51 | 44→45 | 47→50 | 50 | .221/.297/.341 | .120 | .272 | 12 | 14 | 23% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .210/.289/.335 | .125 | .304 | 12 | 11 | 32% | 8% | 76 | +0.0 | .189/.277/.305 | .116 | .284 | 11 | 9 | 35% | 9% | 61 | -0.3 |
|
✕Jamie Hoffmann 2013 · AAA |
28 | 44→53 | 45 | 49→55 | 44 | .222/.276/.340 | .118 | .271 | 13 | 13 | 23% | 6% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.268/.342 | .123 | .263 | 12 | 12 | 21% | 5% | 67 | -0.5 | .210/.254/.321 | .111 | .250 | 10 | 10 | 20% | 4% | 52 | -1.1 |
|
✕David Matranga 2006 · AAA |
29 | 44 | 44→45 | 48→50 | 49 | .215/.288/.336 | .121 | .269 | 10 | 13 | 24% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .203/.269/.324 | .121 | .266 | 14 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .212/.294/.334 | .122 | .284 | 13 | 9 | 28% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Tomas De La Rosa 2006 · AAA |
28 | 49 | 42→45 | 48→50 | 47 | .238/.282/.343 | .105 | .267 | 10 | 13 | 16% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .242/.284/.354 | .112 | .279 | 10 | 15 | 17% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .244/.285/.354 | .111 | .280 | 10 | 17 | 17% | 5% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Carlos Alvarez 2016 · AAA |
28 | 47 | 42→45 | 46→45 | 52 | .228/.305/.342 | .113 | .273 | 9 | 8 | 19% | 9% | 83 | +0.6 | .238/.305/.324 | .086 | .294 | 6 | 9 | 20% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .241/.307/.302 | .061 | .302 | 2 | 7 | 19% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Sergio Garcia 2008 · AAA |
28 | 49→51 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 48 | .237/.293/.345 | .108 | .272 | 11 | 9 | 17% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .229/.286/.323 | .094 | .268 | 7 | 8 | 17% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .215/.278/.275 | .060 | .255 | 1 | 3 | 15% | 6% | 52 | -0.5 |
|
✕Sergio Palafox 2008 · AAA |
28 | 49 | 42→40 | 45 | 47 | .235/.279/.342 | .106 | .260 | 9 | 7 | 14% | 5% | 72 | -0.2 | .251/.300/.336 | .085 | .283 | 6 | 10 | 13% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .250/.305/.318 | .068 | .284 | 4 | 9 | 12% | 7% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Jimmy Herron 2023 · AAA |
27 | 43→45 | 48→45 | 53→55 | 48 | .221/.296/.363 | .142 | .269 | 16 | 16 | 24% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .221/.293/.348 | .127 | .275 | 14 | 24 | 24% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .214/.285/.324 | .111 | .265 | 13 | 28 | 24% | 8% | 68 | -0.3 |
|
✕Xavier Fernández 2023 · AAA |
28 | 46 | 44→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .231/.275/.338 | .107 | .277 | 12 | 6 | 22% | 6% | 69 | -0.4 | .242/.294/.389 | .147 | .288 | 16 | 5 | 21% | 6% | 91 | +1.1 | .249/.308/.429 | .180 | .289 | 20 | 0 | 21% | 7% | 105 | +1.4 |
|
✕Jerad Head 2010 · AA |
27 | 45 | 45→55 | 50 | 40 | .223/.283/.350 | .128 | .283 | 11 | 11 | 25% | 5% | 76 | +0.1 | .234/.283/.392 | .158 | .289 | 18 | 7 | 25% | 4% | 88 | +0.9 | .229/.280/.395 | .166 | .277 | 20 | 7 | 25% | 4% | 85 | +0.4 |
|
✕Danny Mendick 2022 · MLB |
28 | 46→48 | 44→45 | 44→50 | 47 | .230/.290/.346 | .116 | .279 | 13 | 9 | 22% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .237/.296/.363 | .126 | .290 | 14 | 11 | 22% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .231/.290/.367 | .136 | .277 | 16 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 79 | +0.2 |
|
✕Kramer Robertson 2022 · AAA |
27 | 44→51 | 45 | 50→55 | 51 | .216/.300/.340 | .124 | .266 | 12 | 13 | 23% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .209/.308/.306 | .097 | .274 | 9 | 22 | 25% | 10% | 77 | +0.1 | .191/.305/.263 | .072 | .260 | 7 | 26 | 26% | 11% | 62 | -0.8 |
|
✕Deibinson Romero 2015 · AAA |
28 | 45→46 | 47→50 | 47→40 | 47 | .228/.295/.366 | .138 | .276 | 15 | 4 | 23% | 8% | 85 | +0.7 | .228/.295/.362 | .134 | .269 | 14 | 4 | 20% | 8% | 84 | +0.6 | .228/.297/.358 | .130 | .254 | 15 | 1 | 17% | 8% | 84 | +0.2 |
|
✕Tommy Field 2015 · MLB |
28 | 46→50 | 44→45 | 50→45 | 45 | .228/.288/.349 | .120 | .284 | 11 | 7 | 23% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .210/.274/.336 | .126 | .261 | 13 | 7 | 24% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .187/.252/.303 | .116 | .230 | 12 | 5 | 24% | 6% | 49 | -1.3 |
|
✕Pablo Reyes 2022 · MLB |
28 | 45→52 | 48→50 | 46→55 | 48 | .227/.287/.371 | .144 | .265 | 15 | 11 | 21% | 7% | 83 | +0.6 | .237/.297/.362 | .125 | .277 | 13 | 17 | 19% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .244/.311/.364 | .120 | .287 | 14 | 21 | 19% | 8% | 88 | +0.4 |
|
✕Dustin Peterson 2023 · AAA |
28 | 45→49 | 44→50 | 46→45 | 44 | .224/.278/.342 | .118 | .277 | 12 | 6 | 24% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .211/.269/.354 | .143 | .278 | 18 | 7 | 30% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .190/.253/.341 | .152 | .247 | 22 | 4 | 32% | 7% | 60 | -0.5 |
|
✕Ryan Rohlinger 2012 · MLB |
28 | 46→47 | 45→50 | 44→40 | 47 | .225/.293/.348 | .124 | .272 | 12 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 80 | +0.4 | .219/.287/.318 | .099 | .264 | 10 | 4 | 20% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .213/.278/.297 | .084 | .255 | 8 | 2 | 19% | 7% | 58 | -0.7 |
|
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA |
27 | 42 | 43→50 | 49→40 | 48 | .208/.284/.316 | .108 | .260 | 11 | 7 | 24% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.292/.328 | .122 | .270 | 13 | 5 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 | .190/.289/.313 | .123 | .250 | 14 | 1 | 28% | 10% | 69 | -0.1 |
|
✕Davis Stoneburner 2012 · AA |
27 | 47→48 | 44→45 | 51→50 | 42 | .230/.284/.355 | .125 | .290 | 11 | 13 | 24% | 5% | 77 | +0.1 | .206/.262/.297 | .091 | .279 | 6 | 15 | 27% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .168/.224/.225 | .057 | .241 | 0 | 17 | 28% | 5% | 15 | -2.4 |