Alexander Garcia3B DSL Padres Gold
Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 76 proj PA
wRC+†59
AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .273 / .300
PA76
HR1
K%29
BB%7
ISO96
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -3.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.20.40.60.80.90.9+$23M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2029
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2034
First FA Year   2035
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.6$2M+$1M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2032Arb-1$2M+0.9$2M+$1M
2033Arb-2$3M+0.9$2M+$0.7M
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $7M $10M +$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 194176 31402 11723 62 176237233470 57274 376 209 18 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 194169 41702 18503 62 243326320646 77322 269 293 83 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 10284 14512 9438 20 167307321628 155300 429 268 63 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 10277 19812 16288 20 247426455880 208354 2716 395 161 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 8472 7110 10320 40 97207139346 42167 3812 158 -21 — — — — — —
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 8465 10110 17210 40 154329200529 46217 2520 262 59 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202620 MLBSD — 7669 14301 6221 10 203276290566 87286 298 263 59 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202721 MLBSD 34% 164149 32613 12472 21 215282329611 114288 297 275 69 -6 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
202822 MLBSD 48% 298269 591126 23834 41 219291342633 123289 288 284 76 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.2
202923 MLBSD 54% 391353 781429 301075 62 221291348640 127291 278 290 80 -9 +0 +0 +1 +11 0.4
203024 MLBSD 55% 454410 9317311 351246 72 227297363661 137292 278 294 83 -9 +1 +0 +2 +13 0.6
203125 MLBSD 56% 490442 10018312 381337 72 226298362660 136292 278 296 85 -9 +1 +0 +2 +14 0.8
203226 MLBSD 56% 511459 10419313 401397 72 227298366664 139292 278 297 85 -8 +1 +0 +2 +14 0.9
203327 MLBSD 55% 520466 10519313 421427 82 225299363662 137291 278 297 85 -9 +1 +0 +2 +15 0.9
202721 MLBSD 34% 5651 10201 4161 10 196268294562 98284 297 262 59 -3 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
202822 MLBSD 48% 144130 28513 11402 21 215287338625 123286 288 271 65 -6 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.1
202923 MLBSD 54% 212191 42715 16583 31 220290346636 126287 278 276 70 -7 +0 +0 +1 +6 -0.0
203024 MLBSD 55% 252227 51926 20693 41 225296361657 137288 278 280 73 -8 +0 +0 +1 +7 0.1
203125 MLBSD 56% 274247 561027 21744 41 227298368666 142288 278 282 74 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.1
203226 MLBSD 56% 287258 581027 23784 41 225298360659 136288 278 283 75 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.1
203327 MLBSD 55% 288259 581027 23784 41 224297359656 135288 278 283 75 -8 +0 +0 +1 +8 0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 15131363 303531036 11841321 226 222294355649 133290 278 280 72 -48 +2 +0 +5 +43 0.3
/ 162G— — 650586 13023415 511779 93 222295352646 130290 278 280 72 -20 +1 +0 +2 +18 0.1
Career— — 32842949 6371171972 25694450 5414 216290342632 126289 298 283 75 -94 +5 +0 +12 +93 1.6
/ 162G— — 650584 12623414 5118710 113 216290341631 125289 298 283 75 -19 +1 +0 +2 +18 0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 194169 41702 18503 62 243326320646 77322 269 293 83 -4 +0 — — +5 0.2
202418 ROKDSL Padres Brown — 10277 19812 16288 20 247426455880 208354 2716 395 161 +7 +0 — — +3 1.1
202519 ROKDSL Padres Gold — 8465 10110 17210 40 154329200529 46217 2520 262 59 -4 +1 — — +2 -0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA
92,4203578239286365+13-03.74.5
/1626641021+3.6-0.11.0pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA
62,3474631241304367-5+73.83.8
/162664139-1.3+1.91.1pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA
91,7564716227293367+6+83.03.5
/162664186+2.4+3.01.1pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA
61,530256231311345+3+173.53.5
/162664113+1.2+7.61.5pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons
51,5903723224292356+6+22.02.0
/1626641610+2.4+1.00.8pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA
61,6334033232299363+6-140.90.9
/1626641613+2.4-5.80.4pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Alexander Garcia (OGILVIE) 20 — — — — 204/273/300 95286 11 29% 7% 59 -0.1 ————————— —————————
✕Hoy Park
2016 · A 		20 40→49 41→45 47→55 46 196/269/296 99264 811 28% 8% 56 -1.3 205/280/294 89283 516 27% 8% 59 -1.1 227/314/3259830081725%10%79+0.2
✕Carter Jensen
2023 · A 		20 35→45 42→55 45→50 44 176/254/278 102265 97 35% 9% 46 -2.0 196/287/331 135277 149 32% 11% 73 -0.1 224/298/39617229121829%9%92+0.9
✕Addison Barger
2021 · A 		21 41→45 39→55 49→45 44 198/267/288 90270 65 28% 7% 53 -1.5 217/280/375 158316 197 36% 7% 82 +0.5 220/290/39217226920626%8%86+0.6
✕Shed Long Jr.
2016 · A 		20 42→47 42→50 43→50 42 210/262/309 99277 96 27% 6% 56 -1.3 229/287/360 131315 1311 30% 7% 80 +0.4 233/295/385151314171130%7%87+0.6
✕Iverson Leonardo
2022 · A 		20 41 45→50 47→50 41 200/276/327 127305 119 36% 8% 68 -0.5 188/268/292 104312 98 39% 8% 56 -1.3 154/245/248942608840%9%34-0.7
✕Carlos Rodriguez
2023 · A 		20 38 39→45 47→45 45 181/267/268 87282 76 36% 9% 49 -1.8 190/265/267 77299 56 35% 9% 47 -1.9 170/253/254842537233%9%37-1.0
✕Enmanuel Valdez
2019 · A 		20 39→44 42→55 49→45 45 192/258/305 112251 97 27% 7% 54 -1.4 191/244/308 117258 137 30% 6% 49 -1.8 220/285/39817826324826%8%87+0.7
✕Jordan Schafer
2007 · A 		20 39→49 41→50 50→65 37 194/233/299 104272 812 31% 5% 40 -2.4 232/286/371 139325 1213 30% 7% 82 +0.5 238/300/385147332121430%8%87+0.5
✕Carlos Jimenez
2022 · A 		19 38→43 42→55 53→50 44 188/268/290 102278 1011 34% 8% 55 -1.4 201/284/321 120321 1116 37% 9% 69 -0.4 229/308/399169310211831%9%95+0.9
✕Herman Armas
2007 · A 		20 41 40→45 47→50 40 198/265/294 96288 711 32% 6% 54 -1.4 218/287/329 111286 119 26% 7% 72 -0.2 218/293/33511726614923%8%75-0.0
✕Angel Martínez
2022 · A 		20 41→47 41→50 49→50 44 202/257/305 102265 810 26% 7% 53 -1.5 223/285/351 128285 1210 25% 7% 77 +0.1 226/291/358132282131024%7%79+0.2
✕Daryl Jones
2007 · A 		20 41→51 41→45 49→50 41 200/266/295 96265 810 27% 5% 55 -1.4 221/285/316 95297 814 26% 6% 68 -0.5 235/302/34210730891425%7%79+0.2
✕Rio Ruiz
2014 · A 		20 44→51 44→50 50→40 45 216/272/344 128281 108 26% 7% 69 -0.4 233/298/343 110302 84 24% 9% 80 +0.4 236/304/3391033038223%9%79+0.2
✕Thomas Milone
2015 · A 		20 41→44 36→45 51→55 38 194/246/266 72293 310 33% 6% 37 -2.6 192/245/252 60278 313 30% 6% 33 -2.9 243/298/36912534081729%6%82+0.3
✕Eddys Leonard
2021 · A 		20 42→47 40→55 45→50 44 202/274/296 94295 78 32% 8% 59 -1.1 228/295/379 151303 175 29% 7% 89 +1.0 225/292/37815329318428%6%84+0.6
✕Ryan Mount
2007 · A 		20 42 42→50 49→50 42 207/266/309 103292 108 32% 7% 58 -1.2 223/268/340 117294 1211 27% 5% 66 -0.6 251/293/41016030619824%5%95+0.5
✕Angel Ortiz
2022 · A 		19 41 41→50 46→45 44 205/260/295 90268 99 27% 7% 51 -1.7 207/258/303 96281 77 27% 6% 53 -1.5 221/277/35313228512926%6%72-0.1
✕Keury De La Cruz
2012 · A 		20 40→49 42→50 48→50 42 197/252/305 108265 89 28% 6% 51 -1.7 225/254/354 129301 1310 29% 3% 64 -0.8 225/251/351127299131029%3%59-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia
2023 · A 		20 37→41 41→55 48→50 44 180/262/280 101277 88 36% 9% 50 -1.8 198/258/332 134287 1410 34% 6% 61 -1.0 217/272/375157286211031%5%75+0.0
✕Juan Silva
2011 · A 		20 40→46 39→45 52→55 40 190/249/284 95293 58 35% 7% 43 -2.2 211/280/310 99307 813 31% 8% 64 -0.8 224/306/32510130582927%10%77+0.1