Andrews Sosa — OGILVIE

Andrews SosaC FCL Astros

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 160 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .266 / .284

PA73

HR1

K%31

BB%7

ISO85

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$7M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	55	47	9	1	0	0	5	16	3	4	2	191	309	213	522	21	290	29	9	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	55	43	10	1	0	0	9	11	3	4	2	233	400	256	656	23	312	20	16	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	141	121	21	2	0	2	15	33	2	6	4	174	275	240	515	66	213	23	11	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	141	113	29	4	0	2	23	23	2	6	4	257	391	345	736	88	297	16	16	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	55	50	8	1	0	0	2	13	2	0	0	160	222	180	402	20	211	24	4	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	55	49	10	2	0	0	3	9	2	0	0	204	278	245	523	41	244	16	5	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	80	72	10	2	1	1	6	40	1	1	0	139	215	236	451	97	281	50	8	191	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	80	69	15	4	1	1	9	27	1	1	0	217	316	348	664	130	333	34	11	300	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	HOU	—	73	67	13	2	0	1	5	22	1	1	0	194	260	269	529	75	287	30	7	253	52	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	158	143	29	5	1	2	12	47	2	2	1	203	274	294	568	91	288	30	8	266	61	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	281	255	54	9	2	5	21	81	3	4	1	212	280	322	601	110	290	29	7	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	370	335	73	13	2	7	28	105	4	5	1	218	286	331	617	113	291	28	8	280	72	-12	+1	+0	+7	+10	0.6
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	423	383	84	15	2	9	32	120	5	6	2	219	288	339	628	120	291	28	8	283	75	-12	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.8
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	456	413	91	16	3	10	35	129	5	6	2	220	289	346	635	126	291	28	8	285	76	-12	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.9
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	471	426	93	16	3	10	37	133	5	6	2	218	288	340	629	122	291	28	8	285	76	-13	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.0
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	476	430	94	16	3	10	38	136	5	6	2	219	290	340	629	121	291	29	8	284	75	-13	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.8
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	54	49	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	204	278	306	584	102	291	30	7	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	136	124	28	5	1	3	10	39	1	2	1	226	289	355	644	129	293	29	7	269	64	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	195	176	39	7	1	4	15	56	2	3	1	222	290	341	631	119	294	29	8	275	68	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	231	208	46	8	1	5	18	65	3	3	1	221	293	341	634	120	294	28	8	278	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	254	229	51	9	1	6	20	72	3	3	1	223	294	349	643	127	294	28	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	259	234	52	9	1	6	20	73	3	3	1	222	292	346	638	124	294	28	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB	HOU	55%	260	234	52	9	1	6	21	74	3	3	1	222	295	346	641	124	293	28	8	278	71	-8	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1389	1254	278	49	6	31	108	395	16	18	6	222	292	344	636	123	296	28	8	276	70	-47	+1	-0	+25	+39	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	131	23	3	15	51	185	7	8	3	223	293	349	642	126	297	28	8	276	70	-22	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	3039	2742	579	98	17	57	236	875	38	47	17	211	283	322	604	111	286	29	8	273	67	-112	+3	-1	+54	+86	3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	124	21	4	12	50	187	8	10	4	212	282	323	605	111	286	29	8	273	67	-24	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	55	43	10	1	0	0	9	11	3	4	2	233	400	256	656	23	312	20	16	326	107	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2023	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	141	113	29	4	0	2	23	23	2	6	4	257	391	345	736	88	297	16	16	338	117	+3	-0	—	—	+4	0.6
2024	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	55	49	10	2	0	0	3	9	2	0	0	204	278	245	523	41	244	16	5	243	44	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	80	69	15	4	1	1	9	27	1	1	0	217	316	348	664	130	333	34	11	300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,463	30	19	218	284	336	+26	+20	2.4	2.4
	/162	664	13	9	218	284	336	+11.9	+9.1	1.1	pk7: 2
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrews Sosa (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	200/266/284	84	287	1	1	31%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	34	-2.8	200/265/307	107	312	12	4	37%	7%	57	-1.2	212/288/371	159	311	18	3	35%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Wendell Rijo 2017 · AA	21	39→41	39→55	46→50	38	192/239/276	85	274	6	11	31%	5%	37	-2.6	199/255/292	93	268	8	8	28%	6%	49	-1.8	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→55	44→45	37	185/262/263	79	305	7	6	39%	6%	46	-2.0	203/269/331	128	302	14	5	36%	6%	66	-0.6	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/292	75	304	6	16	29%	6%	56	-1.3	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→55	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	53	-1.5	212/289/325	113	282	11	5	27%	7%	73	-0.1	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	38→44	42→50	45	39	189/240/301	111	260	9	5	30%	5%	45	-2.1	211/260/341	130	280	14	6	29%	6%	64	-0.8	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7