John Lopez — OGILVIE

John LopezC ACL Royals

Age 20 R/R 5'5" / 170 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .261 / .278

PA41

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	24	22	4	2	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	182	250	273	523	91	286	33	8	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	24	21	5	2	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	238	333	333	667	95	333	25	12	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	22	21	3	1	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	143	182	190	372	48	214	32	5	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	200	273	250	523	50	267	23	9	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	KC	—	41	38	7	2	0	0	3	12	0	0	0	184	244	237	481	53	291	29	7	248	48	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	KC	34%	127	116	24	5	1	1	9	37	1	1	0	207	270	293	563	86	292	29	7	258	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	KC	48%	269	245	52	12	1	3	20	77	2	2	1	212	277	306	583	94	293	29	7	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2029	23	MLB	KC	54%	370	336	73	16	2	5	28	105	3	3	1	217	283	321	605	104	294	28	8	270	65	-15	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.3
2030	24	MLB	KC	55%	439	400	86	19	2	6	33	123	3	4	1	215	280	318	597	103	295	28	8	273	67	-16	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.4
2031	25	MLB	KC	56%	480	437	95	21	2	7	36	135	4	4	1	217	283	323	606	105	295	28	8	274	68	-18	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2032	26	MLB	KC	56%	503	456	100	22	3	7	38	141	4	4	2	219	285	327	612	107	295	28	8	274	68	-18	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2033	27	MLB	KC	55%	514	466	101	22	3	7	39	145	4	4	2	217	283	322	605	105	294	28	8	274	68	-19	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.5
2027	21	MLB	KC	34%	44	41	8	2	0	0	3	13	0	0	0	195	250	244	494	49	288	30	7	251	50	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	KC	48%	130	118	24	5	1	1	10	37	1	1	0	203	271	288	559	85	289	28	8	257	55	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	KC	54%	201	182	39	8	1	3	15	57	2	2	1	214	281	319	600	104	290	28	7	261	58	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2030	24	MLB	KC	55%	243	221	47	10	1	3	18	68	2	2	1	213	278	308	586	95	291	28	7	264	60	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.0
2031	25	MLB	KC	56%	269	245	52	11	1	4	20	76	2	2	1	212	277	314	591	102	291	28	7	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2032	26	MLB	KC	56%	283	258	55	12	1	4	21	80	2	2	1	213	278	314	592	101	291	28	7	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2033	27	MLB	KC	55%	284	258	55	12	1	4	22	80	2	2	1	213	280	314	594	101	291	28	8	265	61	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1454	1323	280	60	6	19	109	411	11	11	5	212	277	309	586	98	290	28	7	263	60	-66	+0	+0	+26	+41	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	125	27	3	8	49	184	5	5	2	212	278	308	585	96	291	28	8	263	60	-30	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	2789	2537	545	122	14	36	209	790	21	22	8	215	280	317	597	102	295	28	7	270	65	-110	+1	+0	+50	+79	2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	126	28	3	8	49	184	5	5	2	213	279	311	590	98	294	28	8	270	65	-26	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	FCL Pirates	—	24	21	5	2	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	238	333	333	667	95	333	25	12	307	93	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	19	ROK	ACL Royals	—	22	20	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	200	273	250	523	50	267	23	9	245	46	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,495	20	12	217	279	321	+27	+20	1.2	1.3
	/162	664	9	5	217	279	321	+11.9	+8.9	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Lopez (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	200/261/278	78	291	0	0	30%	7%	48	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	31	-3.0	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	46	-2.0	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	23	-3.6	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	52	-1.6	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Alfredo González 2012 · A	20	36	36→40	47→45	38	174/218/242	68	245	2	8	29%	5%	19	-3.9	194/246/266	72	256	4	10	25%	5%	38	-2.6	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Daniel Santos 2018 · A	19	37	36→45	46→40	43	178/255/242	64	250	3	6	28%	7%	37	-2.6	197/260/282	85	284	6	6	31%	6%	49	-1.8	186/247/273	87	269	7	4	31%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Miguel Jerez 2018 · A	20	36	37→60	47→40	38	175/233/245	70	281	4	5	37%	7%	27	-3.3	175/239/304	129	273	16	4	40%	6%	46	-2.0	137/211/276	139	200	19	1	42%	7%	26	-1.3
✕Payton Henry 2017 · A	20	44→30	36→50	45→30	39	206/265/279	73	298	3	5	30%	5%	50	-1.8	182/250/281	99	314	9	3	42%	6%	45	-2.1	255/300/399	144	333	20	1	29%	4%	91	+0.4
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	37	39→50	45→40	43	182/248/265	83	263	7	5	32%	8%	39	-2.5	203/261/310	107	295	9	6	32%	7%	56	-1.3	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	36→33	37→50	47→30	38	174/239/249	74	275	4	6	36%	6%	31	-3.0	194/253/302	108	317	9	3	39%	7%	51	-1.7	172/240/299	127	285	15	1	43%	7%	44	-1.1
✕Ronnierd Garcia 2013 · A	20	37	38→45	43→40	36	183/242/259	77	280	7	4	36%	5%	35	-2.8	207/260/302	95	287	7	4	29%	6%	53	-1.5	214/269/322	109	294	9	2	29%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Jase Bowen 2021 · A	20	41→38	36→50	50→55	39	192/247/263	71	293	3	8	34%	6%	37	-2.6	188/245/287	99	290	10	14	37%	5%	43	-2.2	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Cesar Quintas 2023 · A	20	41→36	36→50	41→45	37	192/263/256	64	299	4	5	35%	5%	44	-2.1	208/291/308	100	303	9	5	32%	7%	70	-0.3	202/292/323	121	282	13	6	30%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Alex Murphy 2015 · A	20	42→36	39→50	49→40	42	200/258/288	87	278	5	8	29%	6%	49	-1.8	199/253/316	117	292	11	3	34%	6%	55	-1.4	185/244/310	124	270	13	1	35%	6%	46	-1.1
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3