Brett Johnson — OGILVIE

Brett JohnsonOF Reno Aces

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA1

HR0

K%29

BB%7

BABIP293

ISO77

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	94	21	6	0	1	23	28	3	9	1	223	392	319	711	96	299	23	19	334	112	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	23	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	121	99	17	5	1	1	21	38	0	4	1	172	317	273	589	101	267	31	17	279	75	-4	+0	—	—	+3	-0.1
2023	23	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	167	133	30	10	1	3	31	53	2	6	2	226	380	383	763	158	351	32	19	349	122	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2023	23	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	35	24	5	2	0	0	10	10	1	5	0	208	457	292	749	83	357	29	29	371	137	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	92	76	16	5	3	2	16	27	0	1	1	211	348	434	782	224	298	29	17	348	122	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	24	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	56	44	6	2	1	0	10	15	1	2	1	136	309	227	536	91	200	27	18	261	63	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	101	20	6	0	1	16	37	3	9	1	198	325	287	612	89	282	30	13	276	73	-4	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	121	107	14	4	1	1	13	54	0	4	1	131	225	215	440	84	228	45	11	190	15	-12	+0	—	—	+3	-0.9
2023	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	167	142	23	7	1	3	22	70	2	6	2	162	283	289	572	127	286	42	13	255	59	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs Black	—	35	28	4	2	0	0	6	14	1	5	0	143	314	214	529	71	270	40	17	248	54	-2	+1	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	92	81	10	3	2	1	11	36	0	1	1	123	228	247	475	123	230	39	12	237	47	-6	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2024	24	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	—	56	48	4	1	1	0	6	22	1	2	1	83	200	146	346	63	154	39	11	171	2	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	101	20	6	0	1	16	37	3	9	1	198	325	287	612	89	292	30	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	94	21	6	0	1	23	28	3	9	1	223	392	319	711	96	299	23	19	334	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	323	278	40	12	2	3	40	137	3	15	3	144	259	234	492	90	268	42	12	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A RAW	3 teams	—	323	256	52	17	2	4	62	101	3	15	3	203	364	332	697	129	318	31	19	325	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	129	16	5	3	1	17	58	1	3	2	124	231	233	464	109	211	39	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	148	120	22	7	4	2	26	42	1	3	2	183	333	358	692	175	260	28	18	315	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	102	20	6	0	1	16	37	3	9	1	196	325	284	609	88	282	30	13	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	323	277	40	12	2	3	40	137	3	15	3	144	259	235	493	90	263	42	12	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	129	16	5	3	1	17	58	1	3	2	124	231	233	464	109	201	39	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	3 teams	—	323	277	40	12	2	3	40	137	3	15	3	144	259	235	493	90	263	42	12	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	148	129	16	5	3	1	17	58	1	3	2	124	231	233	464	109	201	39	11	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	ARI	10%	14	13	3	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	231	286	308	593	77	286	29	7	284	78	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ 2026 — real world (MLB)
2026	26	MLB CTX	ARI	10%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						293	0	0	282	78	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	31%	262	233	50	10	2	6	25	77	2	5	2	215	296	352	648	137	287	29	10	288	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	42%	314	279	59	12	2	7	30	91	2	5	2	211	293	344	637	133	287	29	10	290	82	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	ARI	46%	335	297	63	13	2	7	32	96	3	5	2	212	295	340	635	128	286	29	10	290	82	-7	+0	-1	-2	+7	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	350	310	65	13	2	7	34	101	3	5	2	210	294	332	626	123	285	29	10	288	81	-8	+0	-2	-2	+8	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	31%	81	72	16	3	1	2	8	24	1	1	0	222	309	375	684	153	294	30	10	286	81	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	42%	132	117	26	6	1	3	13	38	1	2	1	222	305	368	673	145	293	29	10	287	82	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	ARI	46%	154	137	29	6	1	3	15	44	1	2	1	212	294	336	630	124	293	29	10	287	82	-3	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	169	150	32	7	1	3	16	49	1	2	1	213	293	333	627	120	291	29	9	285	81	-4	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	536	476	103	22	4	11	52	155	4	7	3	216	299	349	648	132	294	29	10	286	70	-12	+0	-2	-3	+12	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	125	27	5	13	63	188	5	8	4	217	299	348	648	132	295	29	10	286	70	-14	+0	-2	-4	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	1868	1640	316	72	13	32	195	601	17	47	14	193	285	311	596	118	279	32	10	272	70	-28	+1	-4	-8	+28	-1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	110	25	5	11	68	209	6	16	5	193	285	312	597	119	280	32	10	272	70	-14	+0	-2	-4	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	554	12	9	213	293	345	-3	+0	-0.0	-0.0
/162	664	14	11	-4.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brett Johnson (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	206/289/334	127	286	3	3	30%	10%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA	27	40→38	47→55	52→50	45	206/276/349	144	272	14	12	29%	8%	76	-0.4	214/274/384	170	291	20	15	32%	7%	84	+0.1	200/265/376	176	270	21	17	33%	7%	77	-0.3
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	44→42	46→50	48→45	48	215/293/350	135	287	12	7	28%	9%	83	+0.1	212/302/352	140	270	16	5	26%	10%	87	+0.4	199/299/335	135	249	16	3	26%	11%	80	-0.1
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	40	45→50	48→50	46	199/285/316	117	280	13	9	32%	9%	73	-0.6	212/301/356	144	295	17	5	32%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/369	163	277	20	1	31%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Shayne Fontana 2023 · AAA	26	42	44→45	45→55	45	202/289/315	113	301	12	8	34%	9%	74	-0.6	222/298/320	98	293	9	18	26%	8%	78	-0.3	223/300/309	86	285	7	25	23%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Corey Brown 2012 · AAA	26	44→48	47→55	50	41	216/278/354	138	306	14	11	33%	7%	78	-0.3	216/271/372	156	306	18	13	34%	6%	80	-0.2	207/260/366	159	290	19	14	34%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Stephen Scott 2023 · AA	26	41→45	48→50	49→50	51	211/292/354	143	260	15	8	25%	10%	84	+0.1	210/281/354	144	265	16	10	26%	8%	80	-0.2	208/279/363	155	257	18	10	26%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	42→38	47→50	51→45	43	210/271/357	147	279	13	9	29%	7%	76	-0.4	211/281/340	129	269	10	8	24%	8%	76	-0.4	205/288/337	132	247	11	3	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	40	42→40	48→50	45	194/288/297	103	292	10	10	34%	9%	70	-0.8	194/284/310	116	283	12	11	33%	10%	71	-0.8	127/239/235	107	174	13	9	33%	12%	38	-1.1
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2023 · MLB	26	44	48→50	50	41	221/281/364	142	302	16	12	31%	7%	82	-0.0	201/270/356	155	264	19	5	31%	7%	76	-0.4	179/254/334	155	229	19	1	31%	7%	62	-1.0
✕Anthony Norman 2011 · AA	26	42	46→50	54→55	48	211/291/344	132	264	13	14	24%	8%	81	-0.1	212/271/313	101	296	6	10	29%	6%	65	-1.2	228/269/342	114	334	0	12	30%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Deik Scram 2011 · AAA	27	40→50	46→50	53→50	44	203/272/339	136	279	13	13	31%	8%	72	-0.7	213/292/342	129	305	11	10	31%	9%	80	-0.1	208/300/341	134	297	10	4	31%	11%	81	-0.0
✕Joe McCarthy 2021 · AAA	27	38→48	46→45	49→50	44	191/275/317	127	288	13	7	36%	9%	69	-0.9	242/306/403	161	300	18	9	25%	7%	100	+1.3	253/317/428	176	300	20	6	22%	7%	107	+1.0
✕Robert Neustrom 2022 · AAA	25	45→44	45	50	44	222/279/352	130	284	12	10	26%	7%	78	-0.3	215/269/348	133	258	14	14	22%	6%	73	-0.6	195/246/323	128	220	16	17	20%	5%	57	-1.2
✕Mike Papi 2019 · AAA	26	45→47	44→45	44→45	49	219/298/337	118	289	12	5	27%	9%	82	-0.0	217/285/321	104	303	9	8	29%	8%	73	-0.6	166/226/208	42	247	0	0	30%	6%	22	-0.7
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	42→44	43→50	45	41	209/270/322	113	287	11	7	30%	6%	68	-1.0	208/276/322	114	349	12	8	41%	7%	70	-0.9	155/239/248	92	293	15	0	48%	8%	41	-0.7
✕Luis Liberato 2022 · AAA	26	49	45→50	52→50	42	237/284/359	122	316	12	7	28%	6%	80	-0.1	216/281/358	142	304	15	10	32%	8%	80	-0.2	203/272/341	138	285	14	11	32%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Devin Foyle 2022 · AA	25	41→39	46→45	48→45	44	208/274/339	131	274	14	10	29%	7%	73	-0.6	216/286/327	111	276	10	7	24%	8%	75	-0.5	200/287/269	68	252	5	0	21%	9%	59	-0.6
✕Ka'ai Tom 2019 · AA	25	44→48	45→50	49→50	45	220/283/349	129	278	12	13	25%	7%	78	-0.3	223/292/379	156	291	16	8	28%	7%	89	+0.5	204/283/359	155	273	17	6	30%	8%	78	-0.2
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2017 · AAA	26	45	47→45	46→45	40	225/273/356	131	308	15	9	31%	6%	76	-0.4	224/273/349	125	314	13	9	31%	6%	74	-0.5	221/268/341	120	313	12	8	32%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Will Toffey 2021 · AA	26	43	43→45	46→50	49	208/293/321	114	297	9	7	31%	10%	76	-0.4	202/285/325	123	338	12	12	40%	9%	75	-0.5	185/273/308	123	318	12	13	42%	8%	63	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps