Brett Johnson — OGILVIE

Brett JohnsonOF Reno Aces

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .286 / .330

PA170

HR3

K%30

BB%10

ISO127

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	101	21	6	0	1	16	37	3	9	1	208	333	297	630	89	308	30	13	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	94	21	6	0	1	23	28	3	9	1	223	392	319	711	96	299	23	19	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	3 teams	—	323	278	40	13	2	3	40	136	3	15	3	144	259	237	496	94	266	42	12	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A	3 teams	—	323	256	52	17	2	4	62	101	3	15	3	203	364	332	697	129	318	31	19	325	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	148	129	15	5	3	1	17	60	1	3	2	116	224	225	449	109	203	41	11	199	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	148	120	22	7	4	2	26	42	1	3	2	183	333	358	692	175	260	28	18	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	ARI	—	170	151	31	7	1	3	16	52	1	3	1	205	286	325	610	119	286	31	9	281	73	-5	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	ARI	31%	262	233	48	10	2	5	25	78	2	5	2	206	288	330	619	124	287	30	10	286	77	-7	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2027	27	MLB	ARI	31%	81	72	16	3	1	2	8	24	1	1	0	222	309	375	684	153	289	30	10	282	74	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	81	72	16	3	1	2	8	24	1	1	0	222	309	375	684	153	304	30	10	282	74	-2	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	128	24	8	16	64	193	8	8	0	221	308	374	681	152	304	30	10	282	74	-19	+2	+0	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	1025	892	155	41	8	13	114	363	10	35	9	174	275	281	556	108	273	35	11	254	53	-55	+3	+0	-6	+29	-2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	98	26	5	8	72	230	6	22	6	173	273	279	552	106	272	35	11	254	53	-35	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	122	94	21	6	0	1	23	28	3	9	1	223	392	319	711	96	299	23	19	334	114	+2	+1	—	—	+3	0.7
2023	23	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	121	99	17	5	1	1	21	38	0	4	1	172	317	273	589	101	267	31	17	279	72	-4	+0	—	—	+3	0.0
2023	23	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	167	133	30	10	1	3	31	53	2	6	2	226	380	383	763	158	351	32	19	349	125	+5	+0	—	—	+5	1.0
2023	23	ROK	ACL D-backs Black	—	35	24	5	2	0	0	10	10	1	5	0	208	457	292	749	83	357	29	29	371	142	+2	+1	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	24	AAA	Reno Aces	—	92	76	16	5	3	2	16	27	0	1	1	211	348	434	782	224	298	29	17	348	125	+3	-0	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	24	A+	Hillsboro Hops	—	56	44	6	2	1	0	10	15	1	2	1	136	309	227	536	91	200	27	18	261	58	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Brett Johnson (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	205/286/330	126	286	3	3	30%	10%	73	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shayne Fontana 2023 · AAA	26	41	43→45	45→55	45	199/286/310	111	301	11	8	35%	9%	68	-0.5	224/301/327	103	295	10	18	26%	8%	78	+0.2	228/306/322	93	290	9	25	23%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Nick Maton 2023 · MLB	26	43→42	47→50	48→45	47	216/290/357	141	287	13	7	29%	8%	81	+0.4	218/307/369	151	274	18	5	26%	10%	92	+1.2	208/307/357	149	255	19	3	25%	11%	86	+0.4
✕Mitch Longo 2021 · AA	26	44→43	43→50	52→50	42	219/268/334	115	281	10	13	26%	6%	65	-0.7	228/274/378	150	297	18	18	29%	5%	79	+0.3	223/268/384	160	285	20	22	29%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Mike Papi 2019 · AAA	26	45→47	45	44→45	49	223/300/347	124	295	13	5	28%	9%	83	+0.6	219/284/325	106	305	9	8	29%	8%	70	-0.3	171/227/213	42	253	0	0	30%	6%	12	-0.7
✕Will Toffey 2021 · AA	26	44	43→45	46→50	50	211/298/330	120	301	10	7	31%	11%	78	+0.2	203/285/335	132	340	13	12	41%	8%	73	-0.1	184/270/318	133	318	14	13	42%	8%	60	-0.5
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	39	43→45	48→50	44	192/283/299	108	293	11	10	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/282/315	121	288	13	11	34%	9%	68	-0.5	127/238/245	118	175	14	9	35%	11%	31	-1.0
✕J.J. Davis 2005 · MLB	26	45	45→50	50→45	48	222/293/343	122	286	13	13	27%	9%	79	+0.3	225/287/382	157	305	20	11	32%	7%	86	+0.8	205/264/359	154	277	22	9	34%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	46→45	41	207/269/325	118	287	12	7	31%	7%	64	-0.8	206/275/323	117	358	13	8	42%	8%	66	-0.6	146/233/242	95	291	15	0	51%	8%	30	-0.7
✕Robert Neustrom 2022 · AAA	25	45	46→50	51→50	43	224/278/359	136	288	13	10	27%	6%	76	+0.1	223/274/368	145	264	17	14	22%	6%	77	+0.1	210/258/358	148	231	20	17	20%	4%	65	-0.5
✕Cal Towey 2016 · AA	26	46→50	42→45	49→50	44	215/295/320	106	317	9	13	33%	8%	74	-0.1	201/284/307	106	321	9	10	36%	9%	66	-0.6	189/279/298	109	307	9	9	38%	10%	60	-0.8
✕Stephen Scott 2023 · AA	26	41→44	49→55	49→50	51	212/292/364	151	259	17	8	25%	10%	84	+0.6	213/283/374	161	263	19	10	26%	8%	82	+0.5	210/280/388	177	252	23	10	26%	8%	82	+0.3
✕Luis González 2022 · AAA	26	43→52	44→45	51→50	46	215/279/327	112	272	13	18	26%	7%	69	-0.4	240/311/358	118	312	11	18	25%	9%	90	+1.0	246/323/362	117	312	10	20	23%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Donald Lutz 2015 · MLB	26	43→49	48→50	52→45	37	217/263/361	144	296	16	8	32%	5%	70	-0.3	203/251/305	102	311	10	8	36%	5%	50	-1.7	167/207/219	52	286	5	2	42%	4%	7	-1.8
✕Brian O'Grady 2019 · AAA	27	40→37	49→60	52→50	45	205/274/357	151	272	16	12	30%	8%	75	-0.0	214/272/399	185	289	23	15	33%	7%	85	+0.7	198/260/387	189	265	25	17	35%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Carlos Alvarez 2014 · AAA	26	44	44→45	46→45	47	220/282/342	122	276	11	6	24%	8%	73	-0.1	232/307/337	105	283	8	8	20%	9%	83	+0.6	245/326/331	86	298	6	6	18%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Alex Glenn 2017 · AA	26	43	46→55	50	39	217/257/353	135	279	13	8	27%	5%	65	-0.7	192/237/290	98	295	8	7	36%	5%	40	-2.4	126/169/196	70	215	5	4	42%	5%	-15	-2.3
✕Austin Davidson 2019 · AA	26	47→40	45	48→45	47	230/289/360	130	280	12	7	22%	7%	81	+0.4	215/276/324	109	281	9	6	25%	7%	66	-0.6	188/254/272	84	256	5	1	27%	7%	40	-1.4
✕Brennon Lund 2021 · AAA	26	45→55	43→50	52→50	42	220/275/340	120	298	10	13	29%	6%	69	-0.4	211/255/362	151	291	18	9	33%	4%	68	-0.5	185/223/346	161	247	21	5	34%	3%	47	-1.0
✕Mike Gerber 2018 · AAA	26	47→50	45→50	48→45	40	227/276/356	128	319	12	9	32%	6%	74	-0.1	210/262/361	151	313	17	6	37%	6%	70	-0.3	193/248/355	162	286	20	4	39%	6%	59	-0.8
✕Dillon Paulson 2023 · AA	26	44→37	46→50	45→30	50	222/295/348	126	277	14	6	24%	9%	81	+0.4	222/286/335	113	294	10	5	26%	8%	73	-0.1	218/282/326	107	289	9	0	26%	8%	66	-0.2