Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career (MLE) + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | — | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 12 | 12 | 39 | 162 | 44 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 3.2 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| ROS | — | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | — | MLB | STL | — | — | 66 | 276 | 71 | 27 | 7 | — | — | 25.5% | 9.6% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.66 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | STL | 5 | 5 | 27 | 116 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.5 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 12 | 39 | 162 | 32 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 3.2 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.70 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 62 | 200 | 838 | 166 | 98 | 26 | 100% | 3.2 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Player 804979 (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan Beck R 2025 · 3.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.18 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 3.78 | 20.9% | 13.1% | 225 | +0.60 | 3.18 | 256 | 86 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 78 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 76 |
| Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.14 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .303 | 4.30 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 53 | +1.16 | 2.47 | 256 | 75 |
| Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 71 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .283 | 4.15 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 79 | -0.49 | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.34 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 1.7% | .280 | 2.13 | 23.9% | 18.6% | 36 | -1.21 | 2.13 | 218 | 70 |
| Connor McCullough R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.20 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 5.2% | .217 | 3.62 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 64 | -1.58 | 3.62 | 222 | 69 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 69 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 69 |
| Zak Kent R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.86 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .239 | 4.01 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 121 | +0.15 | 3.23 | 354 | 69 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 68 |
| Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.48 | 21.7% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 182 | 68 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 68 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 67 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 67 |
| Spencer Howard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.90 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 208 | +1.08 | 2.29 | 484 | 67 |
| Jackson Finley R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 132 | 67 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 1.16 | 4.32 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |