Rafael Sanchez

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	23	23	114	4.26	3.23	24.7%	5.8%	—	K 18.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.85
2024	24	MIX2 levels	20	19	106	3.64	2.85	23.6%	7.1%	—	K 18.3% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.52
2025	25	AATOR	25	19	91	5.54	3.56	17.3%	7.6%	—	K 14.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.24
2027PROJ	27	MLBTOR	12	12	70	5.01	5.01	13.6%	9.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBTOR	4	4	26	4.99	5.02	14.5%	9.2%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBTOR	6	6	36	5.04	5.10	14.9%	9.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control55Command40

CompsLuke Irvine (age 27) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Nestor Molina (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%13.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	59	251	60	16	2	93%	4.2	16.2%	7.5%	8.8%	0.7%	3.20	3.06	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	59	251	60	16	2	93%	4.2	23.9%	6.4%	17.5%	0.8%	3.20	2.32	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	114	481	119	28	13	100%	5.0	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	2.7%	4.26	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	114	481	119	28	13	100%	5.0	24.7%	5.8%	18.9%	2.7%	4.26	3.23	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.7%	3.64	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.7%	3.64	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	1.5%	3.64	2.85	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.3%	5.54	4.24	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.3%	5.54	4.24	—
2025	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	17.3%	7.6%	9.8%	1.7%	5.54	3.56	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	TOR	12	12	70	296	40	27	8	100%	5.8	13.6%	9.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.01	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	68	287	42	26	8	100%	6.2	14.5%	9.2%	5.3%	2.9%	4.99	5.02	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	274	41	26	8	100%	5.9	14.9%	9.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.04	5.10	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	4	4	26	110	16	10	3	100%	6.5	14.5%	9.2%	5.3%	2.9%	4.99	5.02	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	36	152	23	14	5	100%	6.0	14.9%	9.4%	5.5%	3.1%	5.04	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	260	38	24	8	100%	6.2	14.7%	9.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.02	4.69	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	123	78	26	100%	6.0	14.7%	9.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.02	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		82	74	370	1595	272	122	32	90%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.0%	4.23	3.73	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	861	147	66	17	90%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.0%	4.23	3.73	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	13.6%	9.0%	2.8%	—	5.06	14.7%	5.4%	133	+0.05	—	—	—
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	84
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	83
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	82
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	81
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	81
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	15.5%	9.1%	2.0%	.306	4.73	9.0%	-1.2%	38	+0.66	4.07	203	78
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	78
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	78
Marco Quevedo R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	9.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.262	4.67	11.9%	6.3%	135	+0.54	4.13	300	78
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	78
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	77
Nick Belzer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	12.8%	8.6%	2.6%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	112	77
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	77
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	77
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	76
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	76
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	14.3%	9.2%	1.13	5.01
Eric Gunderson ('00)	1.1	76	13.3%	8.1%	1.14	4.95
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Greg Booker ('83-'90, -1 WAR*)	1.3	53	13.3%*	10.2%*	1.07*	4.51*