Anthony Stephan — OGILVIE

Anthony StephanOF Dayton Dragons

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 195 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 11 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.100 / .182 / .100

PA11

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP279

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	342	290	71	19	2	7	39	72	9	9	2	245	352	397	749	152	299	21	11	336	114	+6	+1	—	—	+7	1.4
2025	22	ROK	ACL Reds	—	21	16	5	1	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	312	476	375	851	62	385	14	19	401	158	+1	+0	—	—	+0	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	342	301	61	16	2	5	28	97	9	9	2	203	290	319	609	116	269	28	8	267	67	-13	+1	—	—	+7	-0.5
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	21	17	4	1	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	235	381	294	675	59	300	19	14	293	84	-0	+0	—	—	+0	0.0
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	363	319	65	17	2	5	30	101	10	9	2	204	292	317	609	113	278	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	363	306	76	20	2	7	43	75	10	9	2	248	359	395	755	147	304	21	12	340	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	363	320	65	17	2	5	30	101	10	9	2	203	292	316	608	112	271	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	363	320	65	17	2	5	30	101	10	9	2	203	292	316	608	112	271	28	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	CIN	—	24	20	5	0	1	0	4	8	0	0	0	250	375	350	725	100	417	33	17	311	97	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CIN	—	24	19	6	0	1	0	5	6	0	0	0	316	458	421	879	105	462	25	21	401	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	CIN	0%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		276	27	9	278	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	CIN	—	35	30	6	0	1	0	5	11	0	0	0	200	314	267	581	67	316	31	14	301	90	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CIN	30%	384	344	75	15	2	7	31	95	6	6	2	218	294	334	628	116	278	25	8	286	80	-9	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	44%	433	389	86	18	2	9	35	106	6	7	2	221	295	347	642	126	279	24	8	290	82	-9	+1	+0	-3	+9	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	51%	463	415	92	19	2	10	38	113	7	8	2	222	298	349	647	128	280	24	8	292	84	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	476	426	94	19	2	10	40	116	7	8	2	221	298	345	643	124	280	24	8	293	85	-9	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	480	430	94	19	2	10	40	118	7	8	2	219	296	342	637	123	279	25	8	292	84	-9	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	476	426	94	19	2	10	40	118	7	7	2	221	298	345	643	124	278	25	8	290	83	-10	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	469	419	90	18	2	9	40	117	7	7	2	215	294	332	626	117	277	25	9	287	81	-11	+1	-2	-3	+10	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	CIN	30%	116	104	23	5	1	2	9	29	2	2	1	221	296	346	642	125	281	25	8	280	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	44%	192	171	39	8	1	4	16	47	3	3	1	228	305	357	662	129	282	24	8	284	82	-4	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51%	235	211	47	10	1	5	19	57	3	4	1	223	296	351	647	128	283	24	8	287	84	-4	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	250	223	50	10	1	6	21	61	4	4	1	224	302	359	661	135	283	24	8	288	85	-5	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	256	228	52	11	1	6	22	63	4	4	1	228	307	364	671	136	282	25	9	287	84	-5	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	250	223	50	10	1	6	21	62	4	4	1	224	302	359	661	135	282	25	8	285	83	-5	+0	-1	-2	+5	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	265	237	53	11	1	6	22	66	4	4	1	224	300	354	655	131	280	25	8	282	81	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1564	1397	314	65	7	35	130	385	24	25	7	225	302	356	658	132	284	25	8	285	81	-32	+2	-2	-9	+34	-0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	131	27	3	15	54	160	10	10	3	225	302	360	662	134	284	25	8	285	81	-13	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3555	3178	691	144	16	70	295	887	57	60	16	217	295	339	634	121	277	25	8	288	81	-66	+5	-4	-19	+69	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	126	26	3	13	54	162	10	11	3	217	294	339	633	122	276	25	8	288	81	-13	+1	-1	-4	+14	-0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.4	1,565	32	25	222	295	348	-9	+0	0.4	0.4
/162	664	14	11	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Anthony Stephan (OGILVIE)	23	40	40	45	45	212/286/322	111	276	5	6	25%	8%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	215/280/315	101	289	7	13	27%	7%	69	-0.9	208/260/300	92	298	6	11	30%	6%	58	-1.7	173/207/222	50	261	0	15	32%	4%	18	-0.8
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→45	41→50	51→40	45	197/267/298	101	259	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	220/278/357	137	292	15	6	29%	6%	79	-0.2	222/283/366	144	287	17	3	28%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2022 · A	23	41→39	42→45	44→55	45	197/273/305	109	295	9	6	34%	9%	65	-1.2	191/295/300	109	252	10	15	26%	12%	73	-0.6	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jeisson Rosario 2023 · AA	23	45→49	42→45	47→50	49	215/293/323	108	288	9	12	27%	9%	76	-0.4	209/293/310	101	310	9	12	32%	10%	74	-0.6	195/287/283	88	301	8	12	34%	11%	63	-0.8
✕Karell Paz 2023 · A	23	45	44→40	47→50	41	221/283/347	126	283	11	9	26%	5%	78	-0.3	200/276/300	100	300	7	14	33%	7%	65	-1.2	176/261/270	94	274	6	19	35%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Gage Green 2017 · A	24	42	40→45	46→50	40	206/268/295	88	284	8	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	204/262/292	88	281	7	8	28%	6%	57	-1.8	172/221/235	63	228	0	0	23%	4%	30	-0.7
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	40	46→55	47→45	45	203/281/331	128	258	14	8	26%	8%	74	-0.5	219/278/387	168	291	21	4	31%	6%	86	+0.3	217/271/408	191	280	27	0	32%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Reid Fronk 2010 · A	24	42→48	43→45	44→50	46	206/292/318	112	279	10	10	28%	8%	76	-0.4	203/288/294	91	286	5	8	28%	9%	69	-0.9	196/287/282	85	279	3	7	28%	9%	64	-0.9
✕Austin Davidson 2016 · A	23	38→43	42→45	41→45	44	191/259/294	102	229	11	8	22%	6%	57	-1.8	222/286/337	115	272	10	7	21%	7%	77	-0.3	230/293/352	123	279	10	6	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Orlando Martinez 2021 · A	23	43→49	45	44→50	41	217/263/341	124	278	13	7	27%	6%	68	-1.0	216/260/337	121	291	12	8	29%	5%	67	-1.1	231/294/322	92	284	6	11	20%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Nick Maton 2021 · AA	24	43→42	41→50	45	44	209/271/304	95	284	8	9	28%	7%	63	-1.3	210/292/333	123	284	11	7	28%	9%	78	-0.3	208/300/350	141	261	16	4	25%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Jordan Patterson 2015 · A	23	43→49	43→50	48→50	40	213/276/317	104	284	11	13	28%	6%	69	-0.9	224/283/367	143	309	13	11	31%	5%	83	+0.1	221/280/376	155	306	15	9	31%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Conner Capel 2019 · A	22	42→45	44→45	47→55	43	209/267/331	122	277	11	11	28%	7%	68	-1.0	212/262/326	114	280	12	10	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/285/332	119	269	12	19	24%	8%	72	-0.5
✕Josh Sale 2014 · A	23	43	45	46→40	47	212/282/335	123	282	12	8	28%	9%	75	-0.5	203/263/296	93	356	7	4	41%	7%	59	-1.7	180/254/285	105	303	11	2	41%	8%	51	-1.2
✕JT Schwartz 2023 · A	23	44→46	40→45	45	44	213/275/307	94	281	6	5	26%	7%	65	-1.2	225/291/331	106	280	8	7	22%	7%	77	-0.3	218/291/327	109	264	9	6	20%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	43→42	46→50	46→50	45	217/283/344	127	282	13	8	27%	8%	78	-0.3	214/280/320	106	310	10	11	32%	8%	71	-0.8	175/252/223	48	291	3	15	38%	9%	35	-0.7
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	44→43	45→50	46→45	46	211/291/336	125	311	13	8	34%	10%	78	-0.3	206/287/361	155	334	19	4	40%	10%	83	+0.1	204/288/352	148	322	17	2	39%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Luis González 2019 · A	23	48→52	44→45	44→50	43	232/285/358	126	305	10	6	27%	7%	81	-0.1	220/277/326	106	280	10	13	24%	7%	70	-0.8	231/309/344	113	297	12	22	25%	9%	84	+0.1
✕Tanner Allen 2022 · A	24	40	42→45	44→45	43	200/253/300	100	251	9	7	24%	6%	56	-1.9	203/258/301	98	251	9	7	22%	6%	58	-1.7	200/259/296	96	246	9	7	22%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Jake Thomas 2016 · A	23	44	39→30	49→50	47	210/289/293	83	281	7	8	26%	8%	68	-1.0	206/288/273	67	306	2	8	30%	10%	63	-1.3	200/292/257	57	304	1	8	30%	11%	59	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps