Joan Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Joan Gonzalez P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 36 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%21.5%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	0	19	84	15	10	3	0%	1.7	13.8%	13.7%	0.1%	5.3%	5.21	6.56	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	11	0	19	84	15	10	3	0%	1.7	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	3.6%	5.21	5.15	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	52	230	52	28	6	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.0%	3.4%	3.6%	4.13	5.36	—
2024	26	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	52	230	52	28	6	0%	1.5	17.4%	14.0%	3.4%	3.6%	4.13	5.36	—
2024	26	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	34	0	52	230	52	28	6	0%	1.5	22.6%	12.2%	10.4%	2.6%	4.13	4.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SD	34	0	36	152	33	17	5	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.3%	10.2%	3.0%	4.76	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SD	32	0	34	142	30	16	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.89	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	SD	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	98	20	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.2%	4.82	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		45	0	71	314	52	44	13	0%	1.6	16.4%	13.9%	2.5%	4.0%	4.42	5.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	0	200	880	145	123	35	0%	1.6	16.4%	13.9%	2.5%	4.0%	4.42	5.68	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	21.5%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.89	21.3%	9.9%	34	+0.13	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	90
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	88
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	82
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	79
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	79
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	78
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	78
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	35	21.4%	11.4%	1.21	4.79
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16