Connor Holden

P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	ROKDET	2	2	9.00	11.60	11.1%	22.2%	—	K 11.1% · BB 22.2% · FIP 11.08
2023	25	MIX3 levels	34	53	4.61	3.08	22.3%	6.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 7.2% · FIP 2.89
2024	26	MIX2 levels	34	48	4.69	4.00	19.7%	5.6%	—	K 14.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	27	28	4.39	4.39	21.0%	8.1%	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBDET	8	8	4.49	4.56	20.9%	8.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29) · Diego Moreno (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%21.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	1	2	1	0%	1.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	11.1%	9.00	11.08	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	2	9	1	2	1	0%	1.0	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	11.1%	9.00	11.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	53	220	49	15	4	0%	1.5	18.1%	7.2%	10.9%	0.7%	4.61	2.89	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	53	220	49	15	4	0%	1.5	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	1.8%	4.61	3.08	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	213	42	12	7	0%	1.4	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	4.3%	4.69	5.03	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	48	213	42	12	7	0%	1.4	14.9%	6.5%	8.4%	4.3%	4.69	5.03	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	48	213	42	12	7	0%	1.4	19.7%	5.6%	14.1%	3.3%	4.69	4.00	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	27	0	28	118	25	10	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	8.1%	13.0%	3.0%	4.39	4.39	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	25	0	26	111	23	9	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.56	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	75	25	0%	1.1	20.9%	8.5%	12.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		70	0	103	442	72	32	12	0%	1.5	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.09	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	861	141	62	23	0%	1.5	16.4%	7.2%	9.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.09	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Holden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.0%	8.1%	3.0%	—	4.56	20.9%	12.4%	26	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	93
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	87
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	86
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	85
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	82
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	80
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	80
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	79
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	79
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	79
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	79
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.0%	8.3%	1.21	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*