Luis Colon — OGILVIE

Luis ColonSS FCL Astros

Age 22 S/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .267 / .282

PA51

HR0

K%30

BB%8

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	44	39	4	1	1	0	3	26	2	2	6	103	205	179	384	77	308	59	7	144	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	44	37	5	1	1	0	5	18	2	2	6	135	273	216	489	81	263	41	11	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	129	114	22	4	2	0	14	24	1	13	5	193	287	263	550	70	244	19	11	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	129	105	30	6	3	0	23	17	1	13	5	286	419	400	819	114	341	13	18	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	71	67	7	1	1	0	3	37	0	5	0	104	143	149	292	45	233	52	4	116	-53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	71	65	9	1	1	0	5	26	0	5	0	138	200	185	385	46	231	37	7	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	HOU	—	51	47	10	2	1	0	4	15	0	1	0	213	275	298	572	85	288	29	8	253	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	HOU	34%	107	97	20	3	1	1	8	31	1	2	0	206	274	289	562	82	289	29	7	264	60	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	237	215	45	8	2	3	18	67	2	5	1	209	277	307	584	98	291	28	8	272	66	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	323	292	63	11	3	5	25	90	3	7	1	216	284	325	610	110	291	28	8	277	70	-11	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	380	344	76	13	4	7	30	105	3	8	1	221	289	343	632	122	291	28	8	280	72	-12	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	410	371	81	14	4	7	33	114	3	9	2	218	287	334	622	116	291	28	8	280	72	-13	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.4
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	426	385	83	14	4	7	34	119	4	9	1	216	286	327	613	112	291	28	8	279	72	-14	+1	-1	+5	+12	0.4
2027	23	MLB	HOU	34%	37	34	6	1	0	0	3	11	0	1	0	176	243	206	449	29	292	30	8	260	57	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	HOU	46%	109	99	22	4	1	2	8	31	1	2	0	222	287	343	630	121	293	28	7	268	63	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
2029	25	MLB	HOU	52%	167	151	34	6	2	3	13	47	1	4	1	225	291	351	642	126	294	28	8	273	67	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	26	MLB	HOU	54%	206	186	41	7	2	4	16	57	2	5	1	220	289	344	633	124	294	28	8	276	69	-7	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.2
2031	27	MLB	HOU	54%	222	200	44	8	2	4	18	62	2	5	1	220	291	340	631	120	294	28	8	276	69	-8	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.2
2032	28	MLB	HOU	54%	231	208	46	8	2	4	19	64	2	5	1	221	293	337	629	115	293	28	8	275	69	-8	+1	-0	+2	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	972	878	193	34	9	17	77	272	8	22	4	220	289	337	626	117	296	28	8	274	68	-35	+3	-0	+10	+28	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	129	23	6	11	51	182	5	15	3	220	287	336	623	116	297	28	8	274	68	-24	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	2178	1971	411	71	23	30	172	628	19	61	17	209	278	314	592	105	288	29	8	267	63	-92	+5	-1	+23	+62	-0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	123	21	7	9	51	187	6	18	5	209	279	315	594	105	289	29	8	267	63	-27	+2	-0	+7	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL HOU Blue	—	44	37	5	1	1	5	18	2	2	6	135	273	216	489	81	263	41	11	240	42	-3	-2	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	19	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	129	105	30	6	3	23	17	1	13	5	286	419	400	819	114	341	13	18	375	145	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.1
2024	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	71	65	9	1	1	5	26	0	5	0	138	200	185	385	46	231	37	7	179	-5	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#1Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,024	16	22	217	283	328	+11	+12	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	11	15	217	283	328	+7.1	+7.8	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Colon (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	201/267/282	81	288	0	1	30%	8%	52	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	43→47	36→40	50	45	203/261/265	62	273	3	15	26%	7%	43	-2.2	204/274/269	65	289	4	11	28%	8%	51	-1.7	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Peyton Wilson 2022 · A	22	43→49	41→45	53→55	41	204/279/311	107	305	7	14	33%	7%	65	-0.7	217/281/341	124	293	12	18	29%	7%	73	-0.1	210/277/337	127	275	13	19	28%	7%	67	-0.5
✕Drew Stankiewicz 2015 · A	22	39→49	37→45	51→45	38	192/239/261	70	279	5	9	32%	6%	33	-2.9	225/281/310	85	293	4	7	23%	7%	63	-0.8	230/290/321	91	297	5	5	23%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Jose R. Flores 2010 · A	22	41→51	39→40	51→45	44	198/255/282	85	264	7	9	27%	7%	46	-2.0	243/289/332	89	292	7	8	18%	6%	72	-0.2	242/290/323	81	290	5	7	18%	6%	68	-0.3
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→46	37→45	52→50	46	194/262/260	66	258	5	10	26%	8%	43	-2.2	216/290/317	101	275	7	10	22%	9%	70	-0.3	216/298/324	108	271	6	10	21%	10%	71	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Roberto Caro 2016 · A	22	44→38	38→40	61→60	48	208/284/299	91	280	3	20	25%	8%	63	-0.9	207/276/283	76	320	2	18	33%	8%	55	-1.4	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Steward Berroa 2021 · A	22	46→47	37→45	50→65	43	213/277/290	76	315	4	13	31%	8%	57	-1.2	207/284/322	115	304	9	43	32%	9%	69	-0.4	223/304/322	99	313	9	48	29%	10%	75	+0.0
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	40→44	37→40	45→50	40	193/250/260	67	280	6	14	32%	6%	38	-2.6	205/268/295	90	293	7	11	30%	7%	56	-1.3	203/276/296	94	296	7	14	31%	7%	57	-0.8
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4
✕Reed Trimble 2022 · A	22	43	37→55	51→65	41	201/266/272	71	308	5	10	34%	8%	48	-1.9	220/284/313	93	309	7	17	29%	8%	66	-0.6	221/288/361	139	289	14	29	27%	8%	80	+0.1
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	39→46	38→40	53→60	49	182/289/262	80	287	6	16	35%	11%	58	-1.2	202/293/281	79	297	5	23	30%	10%	63	-0.8	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Mel Rojas Jr. 2012 · A	22	47→50	37→45	50	40	224/266/295	72	309	4	13	28%	5%	53	-1.5	218/259/314	96	307	7	12	30%	5%	56	-1.3	235/281/348	113	319	9	11	28%	6%	72	-0.2
✕Josue Huma 2022 · A	22	42	39→40	51→50	45	203/273/286	83	281	6	10	28%	8%	56	-1.3	213/268/299	86	285	7	9	26%	7%	56	-1.3	227/271/307	79	288	8	8	23%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Luke Williams 2019 · A	22	41→46	37→45	50→60	41	199/250/266	67	260	5	15	25%	5%	40	-2.4	204/263/297	93	276	7	19	27%	7%	53	-1.5	230/291/360	130	317	13	42	30%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	195/254/270	74	274	4	12	29%	7%	42	-2.3	214/267/300	86	306	4	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	225/274/314	90	324	0	8	29%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Noah Campbell 2022 · A	23	46→45	39→45	53→50	46	215/296/301	86	315	7	14	31%	9%	69	-0.4	215/295/318	103	336	8	11	35%	9%	73	-0.1	209/298/318	109	342	7	8	37%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Rubendy Jaquez 2021 · A	22	43→40	39→40	54→55	42	210/261/298	88	277	7	18	26%	6%	52	-1.6	202/247/279	77	273	4	18	26%	5%	41	-2.3	192/234/259	66	259	2	22	25%	5%	27	-1.3
✕Christopher Familia 2022 · A	22	42	38→55	47→45	43	200/270/285	85	279	4	10	28%	7%	54	-1.4	212/277/365	153	274	19	5	29%	6%	79	+0.3	203/266/377	174	255	24	2	31%	6%	72	-0.1