Luis Meza — OGILVIE

Luis MezaC FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .263 / .265

PA4

HR0

K%30

BB%6

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	96	22	4	1	0	5	19	0	2	0	229	267	292	559	63	286	19	5	254	58	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	52	10	1	0	0	3	12	3	0	0	192	271	212	483	19	250	20	5	233	44	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	62	17	1	0	0	6	17	3	1	0	274	366	290	657	16	370	24	8	308	94	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	43	8	1	0	0	5	12	1	0	0	186	286	209	495	23	250	24	10	237	46	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	98	17	3	1	0	3	27	0	2	0	173	198	224	423	51	226	27	3	174	4	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	54	9	1	0	0	2	17	3	0	0	167	237	185	422	19	219	29	3	176	5	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	64	13	1	0	0	4	24	3	1	0	203	282	219	500	16	296	33	6	218	34	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	45	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	133	204	156	360	22	196	34	6	165	-2	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	98	17	3	1	0	3	27	0	2	0	173	198	224	423	51	239	27	3	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	96	22	4	1	0	5	19	0	2	0	229	267	292	559	63	286	19	5	254	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	54	9	1	0	0	2	17	3	0	0	167	237	185	422	19	243	29	3	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	52	10	1	0	0	3	12	3	0	0	192	271	212	483	19	250	20	5	233	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	64	13	1	0	0	4	24	3	1	0	203	282	219	500	16	317	33	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	62	17	1	0	0	6	17	3	1	0	274	366	290	657	16	370	24	8	308	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	45	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	133	204	156	360	22	207	34	6	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	43	8	1	0	0	5	12	1	0	0	186	286	209	495	23	250	24	10	237	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	97	17	3	1	0	3	27	0	2	0	175	198	227	425	52	226	27	3	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	54	9	1	0	0	2	17	3	0	0	167	237	185	422	19	219	29	3	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	65	13	1	0	0	4	24	3	1	0	200	282	215	497	15	296	33	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	46	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	130	204	152	356	22	196	34	6	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	54	9	1	0	0	2	17	3	0	0	167	237	185	422	19	219	29	3	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	65	13	1	0	0	4	24	3	1	0	200	282	215	497	15	296	33	6	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	46	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	130	204	152	356	22	196	34	6	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		287	25	0	245	52	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	140	128	27	4	1	2	9	40	2	1	0	211	273	305	578	94	289	29	6	257	60	-7	+0	+0	+3	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	268	244	52	8	1	4	18	75	4	3	1	213	278	303	581	90	290	28	7	266	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	361	328	72	11	2	6	25	100	5	4	1	220	285	320	605	101	291	28	7	272	70	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	416	378	83	13	2	7	29	115	6	4	1	220	286	320	606	101	291	28	7	275	72	-14	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	451	410	90	14	2	8	31	124	7	4	2	220	286	322	608	102	291	27	7	276	73	-14	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	467	424	93	14	2	9	33	129	7	5	2	219	287	325	612	106	291	28	7	276	73	-15	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	473	429	92	14	2	8	34	131	7	4	2	214	283	312	595	98	290	28	7	275	73	-15	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	469	425	92	14	2	8	34	131	7	4	1	216	285	315	601	99	290	28	7	273	71	-16	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	463	420	89	13	2	8	33	131	7	4	1	212	280	310	590	98	288	28	7	271	69	-17	+0	-2	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	48	44	9	1	0	1	3	14	1	0	0	205	271	295	566	91	290	29	6	247	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	130	118	26	4	1	2	9	37	2	1	0	220	287	322	609	102	292	28	7	256	66	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	190	172	38	6	1	3	13	53	3	2	1	221	287	320	607	99	293	28	7	262	70	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	228	207	45	7	1	4	16	63	3	2	1	217	283	319	602	101	293	28	7	265	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	251	228	51	8	1	5	17	69	4	2	1	224	289	333	622	110	293	27	7	267	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	257	233	51	8	1	5	18	71	4	3	1	219	286	326	612	107	292	28	7	267	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	259	235	52	8	1	5	18	72	4	2	1	221	288	328	616	106	292	28	7	266	73	-8	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	250	226	48	7	1	4	18	70	4	2	1	212	282	305	588	93	291	28	7	264	71	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	243	220	47	7	1	4	17	69	4	2	1	214	282	309	591	95	290	28	7	261	69	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1856	1683	367	56	8	33	129	518	29	16	7	218	285	320	605	102	293	28	7	263	66	-64	+0	-2	+33	+40	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	130	20	3	12	45	181	10	6	2	221	287	326	613	105	296	28	7	263	66	-22	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3794	3451	736	111	17	60	258	1062	59	36	11	213	279	307	587	94	288	28	7	266	66	-122	+2	-4	+63	+76	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	126	19	3	10	44	182	10	6	2	213	279	306	585	93	289	28	7	266	66	-23	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.9	1,911	32	18	218	281	318	+34	+24	2.1	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+11.9	+8.3	0.7	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Meza (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	201/263/265	65	287	0	1	30%	6%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→50	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	59	-1.7	212/288/322	110	284	11	5	28%	7%	75	-0.5	180/260/332	152	234	22	0	33%	7%	72	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Frank Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	40	40→45	48→30	38	195/255/282	87	294	7	4	35%	6%	53	-2.1	178/234/262	84	256	7	3	32%	6%	40	-3.0	183/244/267	84	244	9	1	28%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	172/216/255	83	252	7	7	34%	5%	31	-3.7	189/226/284	95	266	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2021 · A	21	44→48	37→45	49→50	42	208/267/284	76	290	4	7	28%	6%	57	-1.8	193/273/282	89	275	6	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→43	39→45	46→40	43	214/262/293	80	273	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	225/298/328	103	300	8	4	26%	8%	80	-0.2	218/296/319	101	289	9	2	26%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	43	-2.8	192/239/270	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	140/190/175	36	236	0	6	38%	6%	0	-1.0
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44→43	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	61	-1.5	230/261/332	102	302	9	2	26%	4%	65	-1.2	238/272/346	108	283	9	0	19%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Pablo Aliendo 2022 · A	21	39	39→50	44→45	37	186/262/264	78	301	7	6	38%	6%	52	-2.2	204/269/325	121	300	13	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	205/264/287	82	287	5	8	29%	5%	57	-1.8	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	143/191/216	73	246	8	0	44%	5%	11	-1.5
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2008 · A	21	40	37→45	43→45	38	196/244/265	69	264	5	4	27%	4%	44	-2.8	217/277/307	90	287	5	6	25%	6%	67	-1.1	222/289/325	103	288	5	5	23%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	42	-2.9	200/264/305	105	311	11	4	37%	7%	61	-1.5	205/282/349	144	303	16	3	35%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Narbe Cruz 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	45	41	202/279/277	74	301	5	7	32%	7%	61	-1.5	207/259/292	85	288	7	6	29%	5%	56	-1.9	206/258/296	90	291	8	6	30%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Emilio King 2011 · A	21	37	36→45	45→40	37	178/245/248	70	273	3	6	34%	5%	42	-2.9	214/256/307	93	316	7	4	33%	4%	58	-1.7	250/279/366	116	337	11	3	28%	2%	76	-0.3
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	55	-1.9	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	59	-1.7	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	64	-0.5
✕Lenyn Sosa 2021 · A	21	42→51	40→50	43→40	37	207/237/300	93	263	7	5	25%	3%	49	-2.4	227/259/346	119	289	14	3	26%	4%	68	-1.0	243/274/380	137	290	18	3	23%	3%	80	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps