Luis Meza — OGILVIE

Luis MezaC FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj PA

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .263 / .266

PA55

HR0

K%30

BB%6

ISO65

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	98	17	3	1	0	3	27	0	2	0	173	198	224	423	51	239	27	3	175	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	96	22	4	1	0	5	19	0	2	0	229	267	292	559	63	286	19	5	254	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	54	9	1	0	0	2	17	3	0	0	167	237	185	422	19	243	29	3	180	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	52	10	1	0	0	3	12	3	0	0	192	271	212	483	19	250	20	5	233	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	65	13	1	0	0	3	24	3	1	0	200	268	215	483	15	310	33	4	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	62	17	1	0	0	6	17	3	1	0	274	366	290	657	16	370	24	8	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	45	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	0	0	133	204	156	360	22	207	34	6	162	-18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	43	8	1	0	0	5	12	1	0	0	186	286	209	495	23	250	24	10	237	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TOR	—	55	51	9	1	0	0	3	16	1	1	0	176	236	196	432	20	287	29	5	245	46	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TOR	34%	140	128	27	4	1	2	9	40	2	1	0	211	273	305	578	94	289	29	6	257	55	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TOR	48%	268	244	52	8	1	4	18	75	4	3	1	213	278	303	581	90	290	28	7	266	62	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2029	24	MLB	TOR	53%	361	328	72	11	2	6	25	100	5	4	1	220	285	320	605	101	291	28	7	272	66	-14	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.3
2030	25	MLB	TOR	55%	416	378	83	13	2	7	29	115	6	4	1	220	286	320	606	101	292	28	7	275	69	-15	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.5
2031	26	MLB	TOR	56%	451	410	90	14	2	8	31	124	7	4	2	220	286	322	608	102	292	27	7	276	70	-15	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2032	27	MLB	TOR	55%	467	424	93	14	2	9	33	129	7	5	2	219	287	325	612	106	291	28	7	276	70	-16	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.6
2033	28	MLB	TOR	55%	473	429	92	14	2	8	34	132	7	4	2	214	283	312	595	98	291	28	7	275	69	-17	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.5
2034	29	MLB	TOR	53%	469	425	92	14	2	8	34	131	7	4	1	216	285	315	601	99	290	28	7	273	67	-17	+0	-1	+8	+13	0.3
2027	22	MLB	TOR	34%	48	44	9	1	0	1	3	14	1	0	0	205	271	295	566	91	290	29	6	247	47	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	TOR	48%	130	118	26	4	1	2	9	37	2	1	0	220	287	322	609	102	292	28	7	256	54	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	TOR	53%	190	172	38	6	1	3	13	53	3	2	1	221	287	320	607	99	293	28	7	262	59	-9	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	TOR	55%	228	207	45	7	1	4	16	63	3	2	1	217	283	319	602	101	293	28	7	265	61	-10	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2031	26	MLB	TOR	56%	251	228	51	8	1	5	17	69	4	2	1	224	289	333	622	110	293	27	7	267	62	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2032	27	MLB	TOR	55%	257	233	51	8	1	5	18	71	4	3	1	219	286	326	612	107	293	28	7	267	62	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.1
2033	28	MLB	TOR	55%	259	235	52	8	1	5	18	72	4	2	1	221	288	328	616	106	292	28	7	266	61	-11	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.0
2034	29	MLB	TOR	53%	250	226	48	7	1	4	18	70	4	2	1	212	282	305	588	93	291	28	7	264	60	-11	+0	-1	+4	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1613	1463	320	49	7	29	112	449	25	14	6	219	286	321	607	103	293	28	7	264	60	-73	+0	-1	+29	+46	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	130	20	3	12	45	181	10	6	2	220	287	325	612	105	295	28	7	264	60	-29	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	3382	3079	655	99	15	52	227	947	53	33	10	213	278	305	584	93	288	28	7	265	61	-148	+3	-2	+60	+96	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	126	19	3	10	44	182	10	6	2	213	279	306	584	93	288	28	7	265	61	-28	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	101	96	22	4	1	5	19	0	2	229	267	292	559	63	286	19	5	254	52	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2023	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	59	52	10	1	0	3	12	3	0	192	271	212	483	19	250	20	5	233	36	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	72	62	17	1	0	6	17	3	1	274	366	290	657	16	370	24	8	308	94	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	20	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	50	43	8	1	0	5	12	1	0	186	286	209	495	23	250	24	10	237	39	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#3Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,667	28	16	218	281	319	+30	+20	1.5	1.6
	/162	664	11	6	218	281	319	+11.9	+8.0	0.6	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Meza (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	201/263/266	65	287	0	1	30%	6%	46	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Francisco Acuna 2021 · A	21	44→50	37→45	49→50	42	208/267/284	76	290	4	7	28%	6%	52	-1.6	194/271/281	87	277	5	10	30%	7%	54	-1.4	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	190/271/255	65	295	3	5	34%	10%	46	-2.0	197/283/279	82	287	5	4	30%	10%	58	-1.2	185/278/265	80	263	6	2	29%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2008 · A	21	40	37→45	43→45	38	196/244/265	69	264	5	4	27%	4%	37	-2.7	217/277/307	90	287	5	6	25%	6%	63	-0.9	222/289/325	103	288	5	5	23%	6%	69	-0.2
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2007 · A	21	40	36→45	45→50	36	190/231/257	67	286	3	5	34%	5%	28	-3.2	196/248/279	83	269	7	5	28%	6%	42	-2.3	226/262/325	99	269	14	12	22%	4%	56	-0.4
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2021 · A	21	42	37→40	43→45	40	200/246/273	72	266	4	5	26%	5%	39	-2.5	191/247/273	82	270	6	8	30%	6%	40	-2.4	172/238/248	76	248	7	10	32%	6%	29	-0.7
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Kevin Ahrens 2010 · A	21	41→46	38→45	47→40	41	198/251/277	80	281	5	3	30%	6%	43	-2.2	198/257/302	104	262	10	3	27%	7%	53	-1.5	214/270/332	118	266	11	3	23%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Narbe Cruz 2022 · A	21	43	37→40	45	41	202/278/276	74	302	5	7	32%	7%	56	-1.3	208/260/292	84	290	6	6	29%	5%	51	-1.7	208/260/295	87	295	8	6	31%	5%	47	-0.8
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Deivi Mejia 2011 · A	21	40	39→40	43→30	44	193/264/278	85	266	7	5	29%	8%	50	-1.8	212/259/304	92	276	7	4	25%	4%	53	-1.5	224/268/311	87	267	6	1	18%	3%	59	-0.4
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4