Ryan Loutos

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 28 RHP 6'5" / 240 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	50	73	6.53	3.69	23.9%	11.4%	—	K 20.8% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.93
2024	25	MIX2 levels	50	55	3.25	2.92	24.7%	9.6%	1.1	K 22.2% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.10
2025	26	MIX2 levels	50	56	5.50	4.86	19.8%	10.7%	-0.2	K 17.5% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.00
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	64	67	4.84	5.01	17.5%	10.2%	-0.3
2028PROJ37% MLB	29	MLBWSH	23	24	4.97	5.10	17.5%	10.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	30	MLBWSH	31	33	5.12	5.25	17.2%	10.5%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo62

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsTyler Walker (age 28) · Jhan Mariñez (age 28) · J.J. Putz (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.84

FIP5.01

K%17.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p1011.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.408

SI (5%)

SL-1.4 (32%)

CH-3.2 (17%)

FB-4.8 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	12	1	23	105	26	6	0	8%	1.9	18.3%	6.7%	11.6%	0.0%	5.56	2.41	—
2021	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	12	1	23	105	26	6	0	8%	1.9	24.8%	5.7%	19.0%	0.0%	5.56	1.60	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	2	64	277	72	24	5	4%	1.4	21.5%	9.4%	12.2%	1.9%	3.96	3.52	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	2	64	277	72	24	5	4%	1.4	26.0%	8.7%	17.3%	1.8%	3.96	2.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	73	352	84	40	7	0%	1.5	20.8%	10.2%	10.5%	2.3%	6.53	3.93	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	73	352	84	40	7	0%	1.5	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	2.0%	6.53	3.69	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.6%	13.5%	1.4%	3.25	3.10	+1.0
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.6%	13.5%	1.4%	3.25	3.10	+1.0
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	55	239	59	23	3	0%	1.1	24.7%	9.6%	15.1%	1.3%	3.25	2.92	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.9%	5.50	5.00	-0.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.0%	7.5%	3.9%	5.50	5.00	-0.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	56	252	50	27	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.7%	9.1%	3.6%	5.50	4.86	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	0	14	78	8	9	4	0%	1.0	10.3%	11.5%	-1.3%	5.1%	10.67	7.50	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	64	0	67	283	50	29	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	3.1%	4.84	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	61	0	64	271	47	28	9	0%	1.1	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	5.10	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	255	44	27	9	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.5%	5.12	5.25	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	23	0	24	101	18	10	3	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.3%	7.2%	3.3%	4.97	5.10	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	31	0	33	139	24	15	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	10.5%	6.7%	3.5%	5.12	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	0	71	318	50	34	12	0%	1.0	15.6%	10.7%	4.9%	3.8%	6.19	5.23	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		194	0	200	894	140	96	34	0%	1.0	15.6%	10.7%	4.9%	3.8%	6.19	5.23	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		208	3	270	1225	249	115	27	1%	1.3	20.3%	9.4%	11.0%	2.2%	4.96	3.77	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	2	200	906	184	85	20	1%	1.3	20.3%	9.4%	11.0%	2.2%	4.96	3.77	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Loutos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	17.5%	10.2%	3.1%	—	5.17	17.4%	7.0%	124	+0.16	—	—	—
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	90
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	86
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	85
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	84
David Goforth R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	28	SU	5.09	13.6%	10.2%	3.4%	.282	4.07	14.1%	5.5%	68	-1.02	3.98	256	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Saul Rivera R 2006 · 3.83 FIP	28	SU	3.83	14.8%	9.4%	1.4%	.267	3.47	15.9%	7.3%	215	-0.36	3.09	276	83
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	83
Jose Veras R 2009 · 5.13 FIP	28	SU	5.13	17.8%	12.4%	3.6%	.228	3.57	26.3%	14.0%	186	-1.56	3.37	422	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	82
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	81
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	81
Eder Llamas R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	29	SU	4.84	12.3%	8.8%	3.0%	.261	3.64	11.3%	4.6%	120	-1.20	3.23	171	81
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Ricky Stone R 2003 · 4.67 FIP	28	SU	4.67	13.4%	7.7%	3.1%	.245	5.26	14.0%	9.2%	82	+0.59	4.16	243	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	16.8%	10.4%	1.33	5.37
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*