Brenner Cox P FCL Nationals
Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION6 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
K%23.4%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
K: +0.2 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -0.5 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-0BBCONTACT: -0.7 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +2.4 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: +0.16 (58 IP)+0.2WAR
0.00.12627
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
K†5560
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
▸ 2026 Season
202622ROKFCL Nationals506246400%1.117.0%20.8%-3.8%0.0%3.184.30+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202723MLBWSH190208420720%1.124.1%8.8%15.3%3.0%4.234.18+0.1
202723MLBWSH100104210410%1.024.1%8.8%15.3%3.0%4.234.18+0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career90104210410%1.124.1%8.8%15.3%3.0%4.233.80+0.1
/ 200 IP190020084420381200%1.124.1%8.8%15.3%3.0%4.233.80+3.7
Career506244500%1.117.0%20.8%-3.8%0.0%3.184.30+0.0
/ 200 IP176020084714417600%1.117.0%20.8%-3.8%0.0%3.184.30+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Brenner Cox (OGILVIE) 4.32 23.4%9.2%3.0% 4.18 24.1%15.3%20 -0.14
Corey Copping R 2026 · 4.12 FIP 22 SU 4.12 21.4%8.7%3.1%.265 4.55 19.6%6.7%179 +0.43 3.41 214 90
Collin Kober R 2026 · 3.39 FIP 22 SU 3.39 21.3%7.5%2.1%.268 3.04 24.0%17.9%128 -0.35 2.40 294 88
Kenny Oakley R 2026 · 3.50 FIP 22 SU 3.50 23.8%9.1%2.3%.348 3.65 17.3%7.8%115 +0.15 3.00 144 88
Peyton Williams R 2027 · 3.53 FIP 23 SU 3.53 22.3%10.3%1.8%.311 5.00 22.2%10.2%100 +1.47 3.53 123 87
Reilly Hovis R 2027 · 4.03 FIP 23 SU 4.03 21.1%7.7%3.2%.250 4.41 19.8%6.4%50 +0.38 4.03 130 86
Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP 22 SU 3.38 22.6%9.2%1.9%.283 3.78 17.9%8.3%110 +0.40 3.33 286 86
Devon Roedahl R 2026 · 3.94 FIP 22 SU 3.94 19.7%6.7%3.0%.305 4.92 16.5%9.2%100 +0.98 3.94 122 86
Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.90 FIP 22 SU 3.90 22.2%7.9%3.1%.324 3.02 25.6%17.5%121 -0.88 2.96 194 85
Heath Holder R 2027 · 4.16 FIP 23 SU 4.16 21.1%10.1%2.8%.287 3.13 22.3%13.1%247 -1.03 2.74 367 85
Nic Enright R 2026 · 3.63 FIP 22 SU 3.63 24.6%12.2%1.9%.263 3.12 29.6%23.5%124 -0.51 0.50 249 84
Austin Smith R 2027 · 4.00 FIP 23 SU 4.00 22.7%10.0%2.8%.274 5.05 16.3%0.7%52 +1.05 4.00 134 84
Sean Boyle R 2025 · 4.70 FIP 21 SU 4.70 21.3%7.8%4.4%.342 2.85 22.6%15.3%86 -1.85 2.85 496 84
Ricardo Velez R 2028 · 4.48 FIP 24 SU 4.48 22.4%10.9%3.5%.261 4.12 18.8%8.1%138 -0.36 3.77 166 84
Caleb Freeman R 2025 · 3.98 FIP 21 SU 3.98 24.6%12.9%2.4%.267 5.17 21.7%8.1%58 +1.19 3.98 222 84
Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 22 SU 4.04 21.9%9.0%3.0%.278 5.78 14.7%7.1%62 +1.74 4.04 104 84
Tyler Bray R 2027 · 4.08 FIP 23 SU 4.08 22.3%9.1%3.1%.356 3.17 17.9%7.6%114 -0.91 2.81 152 84
Vince Vannelle R 2028 · 3.77 FIP 24 SU 3.77 19.9%8.6%2.3%.282 5.34 15.3%4.5%76 +1.57 3.77 105 84
Jonathan Brand R 2027 · 3.95 FIP 23 SU 3.95 22.7%10.8%2.5%.236 4.09 19.8%9.0%134 +0.14 3.24 172 84
Mason Fox R 2025 · 3.59 FIP 21 SU 3.59 21.9%11.5%1.6%.260 7.31 21.3%4.8%30 +3.72 3.59 112 82
Scott Williams R 2026 · 4.49 FIP 22 SU 4.49 20.2%10.6%3.2%.256 2.90 18.5%11.2%42 -1.59 2.90 119 82