Jake Pilarski — OGILVIE

Jake Pilarski P Tulsa Drillers

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%21.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	43	200	44	30	3	0%	1.2	17.4%	16.6%	0.8%	1.7%	4.60	4.65	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	43	200	44	30	3	0%	1.2	22.0%	15.0%	7.0%	1.5%	4.60	4.05	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	13	0	14	62	10	7	1	0%	1.1	13.1%	12.4%	0.6%	1.8%	3.21	4.57	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	13	0	14	62	10	7	1	0%	1.1	13.1%	12.4%	0.6%	1.8%	3.21	4.57	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	13	0	14	62	10	7	1	0%	1.1	16.1%	11.3%	4.8%	1.6%	3.21	4.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAD	8	0	8	34	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.52	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	19	0	20	84	18	8	3	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		50	0	57	262	43	41	4	0%	1.1	16.4%	15.6%	0.7%	1.7%	4.26	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		175	0	200	919	151	144	16	0%	1.1	16.4%	15.6%	0.7%	1.7%	4.26	4.63	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Pilarski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.8%	9.8%	3.0%	—	4.67	21.6%	11.6%	20	+0.15	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	87
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	86
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	85
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Brian Sanches R 2008 · 4.74 FIP	29	SU	4.74	18.5%	9.3%	3.7%	.378	4.01	20.5%	10.8%	182	-0.73	3.39	229	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	81
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	80
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	80
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	78
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Michael Dimock R 2018 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	23.5%	10.7%	1.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	166	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77