Justin Kelly

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	A+TOR	36	45	1.80	4.10	17.8%	8.4%	—	K 13.7% · BB 9.6% · FIP 4.60
2024	25	MIX2 levels	29	33	2.43	2.56	23.7%	8.1%	—	K 18.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.17
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	32	5.91	4.44	17.2%	9.6%	—	K 13.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.72
2027PROJ	28	MLBTOR	15	16	4.92	4.92	17.9%	10.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBTOR	6	6	4.94	4.99	18.2%	10.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jeff Fulchino (age 28) · Carlos Fisher (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%17.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	1	21	91	19	11	3	9%	1.9	15.5%	14.3%	1.2%	4.2%	6.33	5.93	—
2021	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	11	1	21	91	19	11	3	9%	1.9	20.9%	12.1%	8.8%	3.3%	6.33	4.69	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	70	310	62	21	13	0%	1.8	15.1%	7.9%	7.2%	5.7%	4.99	5.97	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	70	310	62	21	13	0%	1.8	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.2%	4.99	4.64	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	45	191	34	16	5	0%	1.2	13.7%	9.6%	4.1%	2.6%	1.80	4.60	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	45	191	34	16	5	0%	1.2	17.8%	8.4%	9.4%	2.6%	1.80	4.10	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	0.9%	2.43	3.17	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	0.9%	2.43	3.17	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	33	135	32	11	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.1%	15.6%	0.7%	2.43	2.56	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	4.2%	5.91	5.72	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	4.2%	5.91	5.72	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	0	32	157	27	15	4	0%	1.2	17.2%	9.6%	7.6%	2.5%	5.91	4.44	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TOR	15	0	16	68	12	7	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TOR	19	0	20	84	15	9	3	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.94	4.99	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TOR	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.94	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.94	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	96	32	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.3%	8.0%	3.2%	4.94	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		141	1	202	884	133	86	34	1%	1.4	15.0%	9.7%	5.4%	3.9%	4.14	5.20	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	1	200	875	132	85	34	1%	1.4	15.0%	9.7%	5.4%	3.9%	4.14	5.20	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	17.9%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.99	18.2%	8.0%	20	+0.07	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	86
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	86
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	84
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	83
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	83
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	82
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	82
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	250	81
J.J. Putz R 2005 · 4.36 FIP	28	SU	4.36	17.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.270	2.24	31.4%	25.1%	196	-2.12	1.43	563	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2017 · 3.97 FIP	28	SU	3.97	17.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.309	4.09	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.12	3.16	253	80
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	80
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	80