Seth Chavez — OGILVIE

Seth Chavez P West Michigan Whitecaps

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%16.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	4	17	5	3	0	0%	1.2	29.4%	17.6%	11.8%	0.0%	2.45	2.85	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	4	17	5	3	0	0%	1.2	29.4%	17.6%	11.8%	0.0%	2.45	2.83	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	47	194	49	14	4	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.9%	10.0%	1.8%	3.09	3.63	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	47	194	49	14	4	0%	1.5	18.8%	8.9%	10.0%	1.8%	3.09	3.63	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	47	194	49	14	4	0%	1.5	25.3%	7.2%	18.0%	2.1%	3.09	3.01	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	34	140	28	14	3	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.2%	3.18	4.75	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	34	140	28	14	3	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.2%	3.18	4.75	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	34	140	28	14	3	0%	1.4	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	2.1%	3.18	3.84	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	8	0	14	66	6	7	1	0%	1.7	7.0%	12.2%	-5.2%	1.9%	6.59	5.09	—
2026	26	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	8	0	14	66	6	7	1	0%	1.7	7.0%	12.2%	-5.2%	1.9%	6.59	5.09	—
2026	26	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	8	0	14	66	6	7	1	0%	1.7	9.1%	10.6%	-1.5%	1.5%	6.59	4.71	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	DET	12	0	13	55	9	6	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	10.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	19	0	20	84	14	9	3	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	5.03	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	3	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	4.65	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	82	27	0%	1.1	17.1%	10.4%	6.6%	3.0%	5.00	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		68	0	98	417	69	42	9	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.2%	6.5%	2.2%	3.58	4.21	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		139	0	200	851	142	87	19	0%	1.4	16.6%	10.2%	6.5%	2.2%	3.58	4.21	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Chavez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	16.5%	10.4%	2.9%	—	5.03	17.1%	6.6%	20	+0.01	—	—	—
Justin Lehr R 2005 · 4.58 FIP	27	SU	4.58	14.9%	10.4%	2.6%	.252	4.23	16.0%	8.0%	16	-0.35	4.23	148	88
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	87
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	87
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	87
Scott Proctor R 2004 · 5.43 FIP	27	SU	5.43	17.8%	11.9%	4.2%	.308	4.36	18.8%	11.0%	233	-1.07	3.68	337	86
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	86
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	84
Greg Burke R 2009 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	16.2%	8.8%	2.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	84
Adrian Garza R 2015 · 5.47 FIP	27	SU	5.47	14.9%	10.5%	4.2%	.360	4.17	13.1%	6.5%	84	-1.30	3.94	229	84
Ross Wolf R 2010 · 3.95 FIP	27	SU	3.95	16.1%	8.9%	2.0%	.268	4.37	10.1%	3.3%	48	+0.42	3.43	179	84
Rob Scahill R 2014 · 5.07 FIP	27	SU	5.07	15.3%	9.7%	3.7%	.275	3.59	15.6%	8.6%	141	-1.48	3.06	250	84
Leo Rosales R 2008 · 3.91 FIP	27	SU	3.91	13.2%	8.8%	1.5%	.288	4.05	16.2%	9.3%	62	+0.14	3.85	130	84
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	83
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	83
Tucker Healy R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	15.6%	11.5%	2.0%	.321	5.20	19.2%	8.7%	24	+0.87	2.82	174	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Jose Casilla R 2016 · 4.65 FIP	27	SU	4.65	13.0%	8.0%	3.0%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	104	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	82