Nestor Rios

C Beloit Sky Carp

Age 22 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKMIA	15	.067/.067/.067	0	0	-103	—	.000/.000/.000
2025	20	A+MIA	23	.105/.190/.105	0	0	-33	—	.105/.190/.105
2026	21	A+MIA	17	.000/.235/.000	0	1	-27	—	.000/.176/.000
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBMIA	127	.177/.255/.246	1	2	45	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBMIA	24	.176/.255/.247	0	0	49	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .253 / .244

PA24

HR0

K%38

BB%7

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	13	0	0	0	0	2	9	2	1	0		235		235			53	12	169	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	182	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						140	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	189	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0							87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		250	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	13	0	0	0	0	2	9	2	1	0		235		235			53	12	169	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	14	3	0	0	4	38	7	0	1	126	205	153	358	27	182	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						140	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	21	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	95	190	95	286		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	21	2	0	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	95	190	95	286		169	52	9	120	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	11	2	1	0		176		176			65	6	128	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	127	114	20	3	1	1	9	48	3	2	1	177	255	246	501	70	288	38	7	234	45	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	71	65	12	2	0	1	5	26	1	1	0	181	260	258	517	76	289	37	7	240	49	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	176	255	247	502	71	281	38	8	234	49	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	24	22	4	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	182	250	227	477	45	308	38	8	234	7	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	108	27	0	0	54	244	0	0	0	181	249	227	476	45	307	38	8	234	7	-40	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	273	246	32	6	0	1	14	109	10	2	1	130	207	167	374	37	225	40	5	179	7	-6	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	76	14	0	2	33	260	24	5	2	130	207	164	371	34	225	40	5	179	7	-40	+1	+0	+12	+14	-1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 17 PAwOBA .166 → .128 (−38)K% 52.9% → 67.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	52.94%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	67.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.027	8.58%
HBP% /PA	11.76%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	9.55%
Singles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.027	0.00%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .166 → .128; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 23 PAwOBA .143 → .120 (−23)K% 39.1% → 51.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.13%	÷0.972	×1.270	—	—	51.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.042	6.58%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.028	×0.920	—	×1.042	18.65%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .143 → .120; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .182 → .169. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 15 PAwOBA .059 → .016 (−42)K% 60.0% → 86.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	60.00%	÷0.995	×1.440	—	—	86.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.958	×0.620	—	×1.022	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷0.998	×0.820	—	×1.022	14.01%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.098	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.995	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .059 → .016; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .140. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Marlins · 123 PAwOBA .258 → .170 (−88)K% 26.0% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.02%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	31.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.88%	÷0.975	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.58%
HBP% /PA	5.69%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.07%
Singles /BIP	20.78%	÷1.010	×0.680	×0.998	×1.022	14.28%
Doubles /BIP	6.49%	÷0.991	×0.600	×0.998	×1.022	4.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.998	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.30%	÷1.016	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.61%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .258 → .170; ISO .073 → .040; BABIP .273 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).