Nestor RiosC
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 21
R/R
6'0" / 175 lbs
A+
HR -4%BB +3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.8 · 2031
wRC+†54
AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .266 / .293
PA41
HR1
K%31
BB%7
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2031
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.8 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.6 | $16M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $14M | +$7M |
| Totals | $18M | $95M | +$77M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 123 | 111 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .144 | .221 | .198 | .420 | .054 | .224 | 36 | 3 | .181 | -3 | -14 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.9 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 87 | 0 | .016 | -129 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .143 | .100 | .243 | .000 | .222 | 52 | 4 | .112 | -56 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .184 | .244 | .289 | .533 | .105 | .289 | 32 | 7 | .256 | 54 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB 11% | MIA | 125 | 113 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .212 | .282 | .319 | .601 | .106 | .292 | 30 | 8 | .277 | 70 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB 28% | MIA | 257 | 231 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 74 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .221 | .294 | .355 | .649 | .134 | .293 | 29 | 8 | .289 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB 45% | MIA | 353 | 316 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 99 | 4 | 7 | 1 | .222 | .297 | .358 | .655 | .136 | .294 | 28 | 8 | .297 | 86 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB 60% | MIA | 411 | 368 | 84 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 114 | 4 | 8 | 2 | .228 | .304 | .375 | .679 | .147 | .295 | 28 | 9 | .302 | 90 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +12 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB 78% | MIA | 447 | 399 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 124 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .231 | .309 | .383 | .692 | .153 | .295 | 28 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB 92% | MIA | 465 | 415 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 130 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .227 | .305 | .373 | .679 | .147 | .295 | 28 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 471 | 420 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 132 | 5 | 8 | 1 | .229 | .308 | .376 | .684 | .148 | .295 | 28 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 469 | 418 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 133 | 5 | 7 | 1 | .225 | .305 | .371 | .676 | .146 | .294 | 28 | 9 | .302 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 463 | 413 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 133 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .223 | .302 | .363 | .665 | .140 | .293 | 29 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -7 | +1 | -2 | +8 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 437 | 390 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 40 | 127 | 4 | 3 | 0 | .218 | .297 | .351 | .649 | .133 | .291 | 29 | 9 | .295 | 84 | -8 | +1 | -3 | +8 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 409 | 365 | 78 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 121 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .214 | .293 | .342 | .636 | .129 | .290 | 30 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -9 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 370 | 331 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 33 | 112 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .211 | .289 | .341 | .630 | .130 | .288 | 30 | 9 | .285 | 76 | -10 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 319 | 284 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 99 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .288 | .331 | .619 | .123 | .286 | 31 | 9 | .278 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -5 | +6 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2040 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 263 | 236 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 85 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .280 | .322 | .602 | .119 | .284 | 32 | 9 | .271 | 65 | -10 | +0 | -6 | +5 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5461 | 4883 | 1062 | 183 | 32 | 137 | 477 | 1602 | 60 | 64 | 13 | .217 | .295 | .352 | .647 | .135 | .292 | 29 | 9 | .291 | 81 | -119 | +8 | -25 | +98 | +155 | 11.8 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 581 | 127 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 57 | 191 | 7 | 8 | 2 | .219 | .296 | .353 | .649 | .134 | .294 | 29 | 9 | .291 | 81 | -14 | +1 | -3 | +12 | +18 | 1.4 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | 123 | 109 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .202 | .287 | .275 | .562 | .073 | .273 | 26 | 5 | .263 | 59 | -6 | -0 | — | — | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .067 | .067 | .067 | .133 | .000 | .167 | 60 | 0 | .060 | -96 | -3 | +0 | — | — | +0 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 23 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .105 | .190 | .105 | .296 | .000 | .182 | 39 | 9 | .139 | -35 | -4 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.3 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Nestor Rios (OGILVIE) | 21 | — | — | — | — | .201/.266/.293 | .092 | .289 | 1 | 1 | 31% | 7% | 54 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Brandon Barnes 2008 · A |
22 | 37→47 | 38→55 | 46→50 | 37 | .181/.232/.260 | .079 | .269 | 5 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 30 | -3.1 | .197/.236/.309 | .112 | .291 | 11 | 6 | 35% | 4% | 45 | -2.1 | .244/.289/.369 | .125 | .331 | 12 | 16 | 29% | 5% | 80 | +0.3 |
|
✕Michael A. Taylor 2012 · A |
21 | 37→47 | 44→55 | 49→60 | 36 | .192/.234/.309 | .117 | .264 | 11 | 12 | 32% | 4% | 44 | -2.1 | .200/.251/.314 | .114 | .303 | 10 | 21 | 35% | 6% | 53 | -1.5 | .236/.294/.379 | .143 | .303 | 19 | 14 | 28% | 7% | 86 | +0.6 |
|
✕Narciso Crook 2016 · A |
21 | 38→43 | 42→55 | 53→50 | 33 | .193/.226/.298 | .105 | .280 | 10 | 12 | 34% | 4% | 37 | -2.6 | .200/.245/.309 | .109 | .293 | 10 | 10 | 34% | 5% | 49 | -1.8 | .199/.278/.357 | .158 | .302 | 19 | 15 | 38% | 7% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Pedruin Bautista 2006 · A |
22 | 40 | 38→40 | 50→60 | 34 | .194/.230/.275 | .081 | .287 | 4 | 10 | 33% | 4% | 32 | -3.0 | .196/.273/.269 | .073 | .277 | 3 | 17 | 28% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .190/.288/.262 | .072 | .257 | 2 | 25 | 24% | 10% | 54 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jose Siri 2016 · A |
21 | 39→49 | 40→60 | 56→55 | 31 | .190/.225/.289 | .099 | .299 | 6 | 15 | 38% | 4% | 34 | -2.8 | .199/.230/.326 | .127 | .303 | 12 | 19 | 37% | 3% | 46 | -2.0 | .227/.276/.431 | .204 | .317 | 27 | 25 | 36% | 5% | 92 | +0.8 |
|
✕Jerar Encarnacion 2019 · A |
21 | 37→45 | 40→55 | 46→45 | 31 | .178/.222/.266 | .088 | .301 | 8 | 5 | 42% | 5% | 27 | -3.3 | .202/.249/.313 | .111 | .311 | 12 | 5 | 37% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .223/.287/.396 | .173 | .327 | 26 | 6 | 38% | 8% | 87 | +0.6 |
|
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A |
21 | 35→45 | 39→45 | 49→40 | 36 | .174/.227/.260 | .085 | .263 | 6 | 6 | 35% | 5% | 28 | -3.2 | .212/.263/.316 | .104 | .302 | 9 | 4 | 31% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .219/.271/.328 | .109 | .297 | 11 | 3 | 29% | 6% | 62 | -0.6 |
|
✕Tirso Ornelas 2021 · A |
21 | 40→50 | 37→50 | 51→45 | 44 | .192/.255/.266 | .074 | .272 | 5 | 6 | 30% | 8% | 42 | -2.3 | .219/.280/.322 | .103 | .296 | 8 | 6 | 27% | 7% | 67 | -0.5 | .245/.303/.373 | .128 | .302 | 14 | 7 | 23% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 |
|
✕Jiandido Tromp 2016 · A |
22 | 35→45 | 43→50 | 49→45 | 33 | .180/.219/.289 | .109 | .264 | 10 | 8 | 36% | 4% | 33 | -2.9 | .210/.250/.354 | .144 | .278 | 15 | 9 | 30% | 5% | 63 | -0.8 | .214/.258/.358 | .144 | .280 | 15 | 8 | 29% | 5% | 64 | -0.6 |
|
✕Jalen Miller 2018 · A |
21 | 37→43 | 39→45 | 47→50 | 38 | .185/.226/.269 | .084 | .250 | 6 | 8 | 28% | 4% | 30 | -3.1 | .203/.246/.315 | .112 | .271 | 11 | 12 | 28% | 5% | 50 | -1.7 | .182/.241/.309 | .127 | .237 | 15 | 18 | 29% | 7% | 45 | -1.4 |
|
●Rainel Rosario 2009 · A |
20 | 36→46 | 40→50 | 45→50 | 39 | .176/.248/.268 | .092 | .289 | 7 | 9 | 39% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .205/.272/.319 | .114 | .308 | 9 | 9 | 34% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .253/.308/.402 | .150 | .285 | 19 | 6 | 18% | 7% | 96 | +1.1 |
|
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A |
20 | 41→37 | 35→60 | 49→50 | 38 | .198/.237/.257 | .059 | .280 | 3 | 7 | 29% | 5% | 30 | -3.1 | .171/.210/.253 | .082 | .300 | 6 | 7 | 43% | 4% | 18 | -3.9 | .220/.282/.390 | .169 | .299 | 21 | 11 | 32% | 7% | 85 | +0.4 |
|
●Felix Reyes 2023 · A |
22 | 37→47 | 43→50 | 46→45 | 35 | .188/.235/.293 | .105 | .267 | 11 | 8 | 34% | 4% | 40 | -2.4 | .221/.258/.346 | .125 | .263 | 15 | 7 | 22% | 4% | 64 | -0.8 | .241/.274/.386 | .144 | .275 | 17 | 8 | 19% | 4% | 81 | +0.2 |
|
✕Todd Glaesmann 2012 · A |
21 | 38→44 | 39→50 | 52→50 | 31 | .182/.232/.267 | .086 | .307 | 6 | 12 | 41% | 5% | 33 | -2.9 | .207/.248/.321 | .114 | .295 | 11 | 7 | 32% | 4% | 53 | -1.5 | .206/.236/.350 | .145 | .264 | 16 | 7 | 29% | 3% | 53 | -0.8 |
|
●Aristides Aquino 2015 · A |
21 | 36→40 | 46→65 | 49→50 | 35 | .190/.230/.319 | .130 | .259 | 13 | 10 | 32% | 4% | 45 | -2.1 | .201/.240/.341 | .140 | .267 | 15 | 9 | 30% | 4% | 55 | -1.4 | .218/.283/.452 | .234 | .267 | 35 | 9 | 33% | 7% | 98 | +1.0 |
|
✕Jacob Scavuzzo 2015 · A |
21 | 38→45 | 43→60 | 49→45 | 37 | .192/.235/.300 | .108 | .266 | 10 | 10 | 32% | 5% | 42 | -2.3 | .211/.253/.343 | .132 | .281 | 14 | 7 | 30% | 4% | 61 | -1.0 | .210/.250/.351 | .141 | .275 | 17 | 5 | 30% | 4% | 60 | -0.7 |
|
●Maikel Franco 2012 · A |
19 | 36→46 | 38→55 | 48→40 | 37 | .180/.226/.261 | .081 | .253 | 6 | 4 | 30% | 5% | 28 | -3.2 | .239/.273/.382 | .143 | .277 | 16 | 3 | 20% | 4% | 80 | +0.4 | .263/.299/.434 | .171 | .290 | 19 | 2 | 17% | 4% | 100 | +1.6 |
|
✕Michael Almanzar 2011 · A |
20 | 38→48 | 38→50 | 45 | 35 | .187/.224/.266 | .079 | .257 | 6 | 4 | 29% | 4% | 28 | -3.2 | .202/.239/.297 | .095 | .267 | 9 | 6 | 27% | 4% | 43 | -2.2 | .238/.284/.368 | .129 | .294 | 14 | 8 | 23% | 4% | 78 | +0.2 |
|
✕Brian Sanchez 2016 · A |
20 | 38 | 41→60 | 47→45 | 34 | .187/.243/.288 | .102 | .298 | 9 | 8 | 38% | 5% | 43 | -2.2 | .202/.260/.333 | .131 | .304 | 14 | 4 | 36% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .203/.267/.358 | .155 | .292 | 18 | 0 | 35% | 7% | 70 | -0.1 |
|
✕Franchy Cordero 2016 · A |
21 | 43→53 | 37→55 | 48→50 | 35 | .204/.242/.269 | .065 | .298 | 5 | 13 | 32% | 4% | 36 | -2.7 | .232/.271/.363 | .131 | .345 | 11 | 15 | 34% | 5% | 73 | -0.1 | .230/.301/.392 | .162 | .321 | 18 | 12 | 32% | 8% | 92 | +0.8 |