Nestor Rios — OGILVIE

Nestor RiosC Beloit Sky Carp

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†17

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .220 / .226

PA41

HR0

K%42

BB%6

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	16	3	0	1	4	44	7	0	1	144	221	198	420	54	224	36	3	181	-3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0							87	0	15	-130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	20	1	0	0	0	1	13	0	0	0	50	95	50	145		125	57	4	106	-61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	MIA	—	41	39	6	1	0	0	2	17	0	0	0	154	195	179	375	26	289	41	5	207	17	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIA	35%	125	115	20	3	1	1	8	50	1	1	1	174	234	243	477	70	291	40	6	222	28	-10	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
2028	23	MLB	MIA	49%	257	236	42	7	1	3	17	99	2	3	1	178	239	254	493	76	292	39	7	231	35	-19	+0	+0	+5	+7	-0.7
2027	22	MLB	MIA	35%	43	40	6	1	0	0	3	17	0	0	0	150	209	175	384	25	286	40	7	214	22	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
2028	23	MLB	MIA	49%	125	115	21	3	1	2	8	48	1	1	1	183	242	278	520	96	287	38	6	223	29	-10	-0	+0	+2	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	168	155	27	4	1	2	11	65	1	1	1	174	234	252	485	77	281	39	7	220	27	-14	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	104	15	4	8	43	251	4	4	4	173	234	252	485	78	278	39	7	220	27	-54	-1	+0	+12	+18	-2.5
Career	—			—	584	536	85	14	2	5	32	236	10	4	3	159	220	220	440	62	268	40	5	206	16	-55	-0	+0	+10	+17	-2.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	95	16	2	6	36	263	11	4	3	159	220	223	443	64	268	40	6	206	16	-62	-0	+0	+12	+18	-3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	1	6	32	7	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	59	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-96	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	2	9	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-35	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Rios (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	165/220/226	62	289	0	0	42%	6%	17	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Rondon 2019 · A	21	35→34	39→40	44→30	32	173/216/252	79	290	7	4	42%	5%	21	-3.7	183/224/252	69	302	5	6	39%	5%	24	-3.5	170/209/229	59	274	5	2	38%	4%	9	-1.7
✕Ryan Scott 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	48→30	38	158/235/220	62	287	4	6	43%	8%	23	-3.6	165/229/225	60	283	3	5	39%	7%	20	-3.8	133/213/192	59	215	6	2	38%	8%	5	-1.5
✕Trae Arbet 2015 · A	21	36	35→45	45	30	170/218/229	59	285	2	6	39%	3%	17	-4.0	198/247/292	94	315	7	5	38%	3%	46	-2.0	190/234/306	116	294	10	2	38%	2%	40	-1.0
✕Edwin Díaz 2017 · A	21	32→31	38→50	45→40	33	161/214/232	72	265	6	4	40%	5%	16	-4.1	172/230/275	103	271	11	3	38%	6%	34	-2.8	158/222/310	152	235	22	4	42%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Robertico Medina 2015 · A	21	36	37→40	48→45	37	160/244/225	66	315	5	8	47%	8%	29	-3.2	175/267/253	78	315	6	7	41%	10%	46	-2.0	151/254/224	73	269	6	7	41%	11%	31	-1.1
✕Tanner Murphy 2016 · A	21	32	40	47→50	39	166/226/253	87	248	8	3	35%	7%	27	-3.3	175/242/247	72	244	6	3	29%	7%	33	-2.9	158/233/209	52	216	5	2	28%	8%	18	-1.5
✕Jin-Ho Shin 2012 · A	20	34	38→40	44→30	36	165/232/237	72	290	6	4	42%	7%	25	-3.5	176/232/254	78	268	6	3	35%	6%	30	-3.1	158/214/229	71	233	7	1	34%	5%	13	-2.1
✕Juan Santander 2023 · A	20	35	36→40	49→50	36	169/227/229	60	272	3	8	37%	6%	20	-3.8	191/245/278	87	271	9	8	31%	6%	41	-2.3	178/231/264	86	239	11	9	30%	6%	29	-1.0
✕Sammy Infante 2022 · A	21	39→25	40→45	44→55	37	182/253/275	92	314	7	7	41%	7%	44	-2.1	176/242/277	101	300	10	14	42%	6%	40	-2.4	164/231/260	96	276	10	17	42%	6%	29	-1.7
✕Domnit Bolivar 2010 · A	21	39→35	39→45	46→45	32	191/227/277	85	295	7	7	37%	4%	32	-3.0	189/233/287	98	287	9	8	36%	5%	38	-2.6	178/225/275	97	262	10	9	35%	5%	28	-1.9
✕Luke Bailey 2012 · A	21	34	41→45	48→45	32	167/229/267	100	292	9	6	44%	6%	32	-3.0	173/222/268	95	283	9	4	40%	4%	29	-3.2	150/196/234	84	241	8	1	40%	3%	7	-1.3
✕Francisco Garcia 2023 · A	20	36	38→40	43→50	34	174/235/250	76	289	6	6	40%	5%	30	-3.1	177/236/262	85	295	7	5	40%	5%	33	-2.9	142/195/214	72	231	7	4	40%	4%	3	-1.5
✕Alexander Hernandez 2019 · A	20	38	38→40	45	34	184/231/257	74	293	5	5	38%	5%	29	-3.2	193/256/310	117	294	12	7	36%	7%	54	-1.4	172/244/310	138	248	16	9	36%	8%	48	-0.6
✕Jalen Harris 2013 · A	21	36	35→30	51→45	36	171/222/229	59	288	2	8	40%	6%	17	-4.0	197/249/265	68	334	3	7	39%	6%	38	-2.6	194/243/248	54	337	2	5	41%	5%	28	-1.1
✕Dilan Rosario 2022 · A	21	36	37→40	44→45	31	160/214/230	70	330	5	6	50%	6%	15	-4.1	172/237/248	76	325	6	7	45%	7%	30	-3.1	155/220/227	72	290	7	7	46%	7%	15	-1.9
✕Dale Burdick 2017 · A	21	38	39→45	49→50	38	178/247/265	87	298	5	7	39%	7%	40	-2.4	176/255/272	96	319	7	8	43%	9%	45	-2.1	141/235/232	91	260	8	8	44%	10%	24	-1.3
✕Julio Aparicio 2011 · A	21	36	38→40	47→45	32	176/225/252	76	294	5	8	40%	5%	25	-3.5	185/223/267	82	291	7	4	37%	4%	28	-3.2	171/203/245	74	260	8	1	37%	3%	10	-1.7
✕Israel Pineda 2021 · A	21	35→41	40→45	44→40	35	177/225/257	80	272	8	4	37%	5%	27	-3.3	195/240/330	135	278	17	3	35%	5%	53	-1.5	182/228/317	135	252	18	1	35%	5%	41	-1.1
✕Jordy Barley 2021 · A	21	41→33	40	48→60	36	194/249/284	89	305	7	10	37%	6%	43	-2.2	178/231/256	78	318	6	32	43%	6%	29	-3.2	158/212/227	69	287	6	44	44%	6%	11	-1.8
✕José Sánchez 2021 · A	21	40→41	37→30	44→40	36	189/245/261	72	312	5	7	39%	6%	37	-2.7	192/259/268	76	274	5	4	29%	7%	45	-2.1	178/246/243	65	249	4	3	28%	7%	30	-1.8