Nestor Rios — OGILVIE

Nestor RiosC Beloit Sky Carp

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs A+ HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION17 act + 3 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†34

AVG/OBP/SLG—

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP282

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	64	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2023	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-73	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-20	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	16	3	0	1	4	45	7	0	1	144	221	198	420	54	214	37	3	180	8	-13	-0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						137	87	0	16	-103	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	100	143	100	243		159	52	4	110	-39	-4	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	16	3	0	1	4	45	7	0	1	144	221	198	420	54	227	37	3	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	123	109	22	5	0	1	6	32	7	0	1	202	287	275	562	73	273	26	5	263	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0							87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	1	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	67	67	67	133		167	60	0	60	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	20	2	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	100	143	100	243		222	52	4	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	105	190	105	296		182	39	9	139	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	123	111	16	3	0	1	4	45	7	0	1	144	221	198	420	54	214	37	3	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						137	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	22	2	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	91	143	91	234		159	52	4	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	15	15	0	0	0	0	0	13	0	0	0						137	87	0	16	-103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	—	23	22	2	0	0	0	1	12	0	0	0	91	143	91	234		159	52	4	110	-39	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	MIA	—	17	14	0	0	0	0	1	12	2	1	0		176		176			71	6	126	-29	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ RAW	MIA	—	17	13	0	0	0	0	2	9	2	1	0		235		235			53	12	169	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A+ MLE	MIA	0%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						289	33	0	219	34	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A+ MLE	MIA	—	20	17	0	0	0	0	1	13	2	1	0		150		150			65	5	140	-19	-3	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	35%	125	114	20	3	1	1	8	49	2	2	1	175	242	246	488	70	290	39	6	232	43	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	35%	43	39	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	1	0	154	233	179	412	26	283	40	7	215	43	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	43	39	6	1	0	0	3	17	1	1	0	154	233	179	412	26	273	40	7	215	14	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	590	91	15	0	0	45	257	15	15	0	154	232	180	412	25	273	40	7	215	14	-44	+3	+0	+12	+14	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	289	263	38	6	1	2	13	120	9	2	2	144	211	198	408	53	250	42	4	189	14	-9	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	84	13	2	4	29	270	20	4	4	142	207	191	398	49	246	42	4	189	14	-44	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nestor Rios (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	166/234/232	66	289	0	1	41%	7%	34	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dale Burdick 2017 · A	21	38	39→45	49→50	38	178/248/265	88	296	5	7	39%	7%	47	-2.6	177/252/273	96	312	7	8	42%	8%	50	-2.3	144/231/235	92	254	8	8	43%	9%	31	-1.3
✕Edwin Díaz 2017 · A	21	33	38→50	45→40	33	163/218/235	71	269	6	4	40%	5%	28	-3.9	177/237/283	106	274	11	3	37%	7%	47	-2.6	154/228/294	140	225	19	5	40%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Robertico Medina 2015 · A	21	36	37→40	48→45	37	160/244/225	66	315	5	8	47%	8%	37	-3.3	175/267/253	78	315	6	7	41%	10%	52	-2.2	151/254/224	73	269	6	7	41%	11%	39	-1.2
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	45	-2.7	192/272/290	98	317	8	13	39%	7%	62	-1.4	158/238/238	80	331	8	23	50%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2023 · A	20	38→24	37→45	51→60	37	182/239/259	77	286	4	10	36%	6%	40	-3.0	159/226/247	88	256	8	13	39%	7%	34	-3.5	160/233/271	111	241	12	30	37%	7%	41	-1.7
✕Yeurys Tejeda 2009 · A	21	37	38→40	51→50	36	182/239/256	74	283	6	11	36%	5%	40	-3.0	201/249/290	89	282	7	7	30%	5%	51	-2.2	175/208/266	92	228	10	4	28%	3%	29	-0.8
✕Ryan Scott 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	48→30	38	158/235/220	62	288	4	6	43%	8%	32	-3.7	164/229/224	60	279	3	5	39%	7%	30	-3.8	132/213/189	57	213	5	2	38%	8%	15	-1.5
✕Sammy Infante 2022 · A	21	39→25	40→50	44→55	37	184/254/276	93	316	7	7	41%	7%	51	-2.2	178/245/282	104	297	11	14	41%	6%	49	-2.4	166/234/264	98	274	10	17	41%	6%	39	-1.7
✕Juan Santander 2023 · A	20	35	36→40	49→50	37	171/230/232	61	271	3	8	36%	6%	32	-3.7	193/248/285	92	274	9	8	31%	6%	51	-2.3	181/235/274	93	245	12	9	31%	6%	41	-0.9
✕Justin Twine 2017 · A	21	37→32	37→40	45→50	29	181/219/250	69	290	4	7	38%	3%	31	-3.7	199/238/279	80	295	5	9	33%	3%	45	-2.7	214/250/302	88	318	6	14	33%	3%	53	-1.2
✕Omar Hernandez 2023 · A	21	36	36→30	52→55	35	177/219/241	64	266	3	12	34%	5%	28	-3.9	191/240/254	63	261	5	17	27%	5%	40	-3.1	209/245/262	53	279	4	21	26%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Adrian Rondon 2019 · A	21	35→34	39→40	44→30	32	174/217/255	81	289	7	4	41%	5%	32	-3.7	185/227/253	68	305	5	6	39%	5%	34	-3.5	173/213/227	54	282	4	2	39%	4%	21	-1.6
✕Trae Arbet 2015 · A	21	36	35→45	45	30	170/218/229	59	285	2	6	39%	3%	26	-4.0	199/248/293	94	315	7	5	38%	3%	53	-2.1	193/238/311	118	296	10	2	37%	2%	50	-1.0
✕Domnit Bolivar 2010 · A	21	39→35	39→40	46→45	32	191/227/277	85	295	7	7	37%	4%	40	-3.1	191/235/288	97	286	9	8	35%	5%	46	-2.6	183/229/278	95	263	10	9	33%	5%	38	-1.8
✕Fabian Pertuz 2022 · A	21	42→34	39→40	45→55	34	200/246/278	78	316	7	7	38%	5%	47	-2.5	177/224/267	90	272	8	11	36%	5%	37	-3.3	159/207/246	87	244	8	12	37%	4%	24	-2.5
✕Will Banfield 2021 · A	21	34→37	40→45	47→30	34	175/220/263	88	269	9	3	37%	5%	35	-3.4	180/223/291	111	261	12	3	35%	4%	42	-2.9	193/233/284	91	269	10	0	31%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Francisco Garcia 2023 · A	20	36	39→40	43→50	34	176/237/255	79	290	7	6	40%	5%	40	-3.1	179/238/265	86	296	7	5	40%	5%	42	-2.9	146/200/218	72	234	7	4	39%	4%	18	-1.4
✕Jesus Parra 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	50	28	170/216/256	87	291	7	5	42%	4%	32	-3.7	188/233/274	86	342	6	5	44%	4%	42	-2.9	158/193/240	82	311	5	2	49%	3%	16	-1.3
✕Chuck Moorman 2015 · A	21	40	39→40	48→30	35	189/243/272	82	303	7	5	38%	5%	46	-2.6	186/225/258	72	272	5	3	32%	4%	34	-3.5	183/221/256	73	258	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Mateo Gil 2021 · A	21	44→33	37→45	47→45	39	204/264/279	74	323	4	6	36%	7%	55	-2.0	192/235/294	102	287	9	6	35%	5%	47	-2.5	178/223/287	109	258	11	5	34%	5%	39	-1.8