Justin Armbruester

P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAABAL	29	26	119	7.54	5.58	23.4%	12.3%	—	K 20.2% · BB 11.1% · FIP 5.73
2025	26	AAABAL	3	0	6	0.00	2.22	25.9%	11.1%	—	K 25.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 2.32
2026	27	MIX3 levels	23	0	25	1.08	1.34	32.3%	6.2%	—	K 27.5% · BB 5.6% · FIP 1.49
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYM	3	3	18	4.46	4.46	22.5%	9.0%	0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBNYM	1	1	6	4.52	4.58	22.4%	9.3%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsErik Hiljus (age 28) · Sam Lewis (age 27) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%22.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	9	38	16	6	1	12%	1.2	42.1%	15.8%	26.3%	2.6%	1.93	2.99	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	9	38	16	6	1	12%	1.2	42.1%	15.8%	26.3%	2.6%	1.93	2.99	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	117	475	126	34	21	85%	4.5	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.9%	3.85	5.02	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	117	475	126	34	21	85%	4.5	26.5%	7.2%	19.4%	4.4%	3.85	4.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	121	517	109	51	14	96%	4.7	17.7%	9.6%	8.1%	2.9%	3.56	4.41	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	121	517	109	51	14	96%	4.7	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	2.7%	3.56	4.06	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.0%	5.3%	7.54	5.73	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	20.2%	11.1%	9.0%	5.3%	7.54	5.73	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	4.8%	7.54	5.58	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.22	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	25	96	31	6	0	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.6%	21.9%	0.0%	1.08	1.49	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	25	96	31	6	0	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.6%	21.9%	0.0%	1.08	1.49	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	25	96	31	6	0	0%	1.1	32.3%	6.2%	26.0%	0.0%	1.08	1.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYM	3	3	18	76	17	7	2	100%	6.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.2%	4.46	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	3	3	20	84	19	8	3	100%	6.7	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	1	1	6	25	6	2	1	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.58	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		1	1	6	26	6	2	1	100%	6.3	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.20	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	64	32	100%	6.0	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.20	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		115	74	398	1712	353	164	69	64%	3.5	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	4.0%	4.59	4.78	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	37	200	861	178	83	35	64%	3.5	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	4.0%	4.59	4.78	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Armbruester (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	22.5%	9.0%	3.2%	—	4.58	22.4%	13.1%	20	+0.12	—	—	—
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	74
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	73
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	68
Dustin Nippert R 2009 · 4.09 FIP	28	SP-	4.09	18.0%	9.7%	2.3%	.271	4.49	17.9%	6.1%	57	+0.40	3.83	268	68
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	67
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	67
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	66
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	66
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	66
Eddie Bonine R 2009 · 5.60 FIP	28	SW	5.60	13.1%	7.6%	4.8%	.306	4.54	8.6%	2.0%	68	-1.06	4.40	129	65
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	65
Kyle Snyder R 2006 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	19.9%	5.9%	4.2%	.373	4.83	16.9%	4.5%	54	+0.36	3.80	236	64
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	64
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	64
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	63
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	63
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	63
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	63
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	63