Luis ArizaSS
FCL Rays
Age 22
R/R
5'11" / 155 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.2 · 2031
wRC+†57
AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .270 / .297
PA64
HR1
K%30
BB%7
MLB%0%
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2031
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.1 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $5M | $27M | +$22M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 173 | 160 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 70 | 3 | 4 | 4 | .163 | .216 | .244 | .460 | .081 | .267 | 40 | 5 | .211 | 20 | -16 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 191 | 167 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 7 | 6 | 2 | .174 | .270 | .210 | .479 | .036 | .266 | 31 | 8 | .225 | 30 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 69 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .246 | .292 | .539 | .092 | .273 | 29 | 4 | .233 | 37 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 70 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .141 | .203 | .234 | .437 | .094 | .190 | 31 | 7 | .202 | 13 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 65 | 55 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .109 | .246 | .127 | .373 | .018 | .194 | 37 | 8 | .186 | 1 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | TB | 64 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .190 | .266 | .276 | .541 | .086 | .286 | 30 | 8 | .260 | 57 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB 11% | TB | 140 | 126 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .222 | .295 | .349 | .644 | .127 | .288 | 29 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB 26% | TB | 262 | 236 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 73 | 3 | 4 | 1 | .220 | .292 | .352 | .644 | .131 | .290 | 28 | 8 | .289 | 79 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB 43% | TB | 340 | 305 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 93 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .223 | .297 | .354 | .651 | .131 | .291 | 27 | 8 | .296 | 85 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB 58% | TB | 392 | 352 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 107 | 4 | 6 | 1 | .224 | .298 | .361 | .659 | .136 | .292 | 27 | 8 | .300 | 88 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +11 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB 76% | TB | 418 | 374 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 114 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .227 | .304 | .372 | .675 | .144 | .292 | 27 | 9 | .300 | 88 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB 84% | TB | 431 | 386 | 87 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 37 | 119 | 5 | 6 | 1 | .225 | .301 | .365 | .667 | .140 | .292 | 28 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB 90% | TB | 431 | 385 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 38 | 120 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .223 | .301 | .364 | .665 | .140 | .291 | 28 | 9 | .297 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | TB | 428 | 383 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 121 | 5 | 4 | 0 | .219 | .296 | .355 | .652 | .136 | .290 | 28 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | TB | 418 | 375 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 119 | 4 | 2 | 0 | .216 | .292 | .344 | .636 | .128 | .288 | 28 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -9 | +0 | -3 | +4 | +12 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | TB | 403 | 361 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 117 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .213 | .290 | .338 | .628 | .125 | .287 | 29 | 9 | .286 | 77 | -11 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +11 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | TB | 375 | 336 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 112 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .208 | .285 | .327 | .612 | .119 | .285 | 30 | 9 | .280 | 73 | -12 | +0 | -4 | +4 | +11 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | TB | 331 | 297 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 101 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .205 | .280 | .323 | .604 | .118 | .283 | 31 | 8 | .274 | 68 | -12 | +0 | -5 | +4 | +9 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 5001 | 4485 | 952 | 168 | 28 | 110 | 413 | 1451 | 65 | 52 | 11 | .212 | .288 | .336 | .624 | .124 | .285 | 29 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -145 | +6 | -20 | +54 | +142 | 3.7 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 583 | 124 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 54 | 189 | 8 | 7 | 1 | .213 | .288 | .336 | .625 | .123 | .286 | 29 | 8 | .282 | 74 | -19 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +18 | 0.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays 1 | 173 | 153 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 3 | 4 | 4 | .255 | .333 | .392 | .725 | .137 | .343 | 27 | 9 | .324 | 106 | +1 | -1 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 191 | 159 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 40 | 7 | 6 | 2 | .239 | .360 | .308 | .668 | .069 | .308 | 21 | 12 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 69 | 64 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .281 | .333 | .406 | .740 | .125 | .347 | 20 | 6 | .332 | 112 | +1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.3 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 70 | 60 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .217 | .319 | .367 | .686 | .150 | .267 | 21 | 13 | .306 | 93 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Rays | 65 | 52 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .173 | .338 | .212 | .550 | .038 | .250 | 25 | 12 | .279 | 72 | -2 | +0 | — | — | +2 | -0.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Luis Ariza (OGILVIE) | 22 | — | — | — | — | .203/.270/.297 | .094 | .286 | 1 | 1 | 30% | 7% | 57 | -0.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Ezequiel Duran 2021 · A |
22 | 38→48 | 39→55 | 52→50 | 33 | .186/.233/.270 | .084 | .294 | 7 | 8 | 38% | 4% | 33 | -2.9 | .226/.276/.390 | .164 | .313 | 19 | 14 | 33% | 6% | 84 | +0.6 | .235/.283/.404 | .168 | .313 | 19 | 14 | 30% | 5% | 88 | +0.7 |
|
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A |
22 | 44 | 40→45 | 50 | 40 | .212/.268/.307 | .095 | .307 | 8 | 8 | 32% | 6% | 58 | -1.2 | .203/.290/.313 | .110 | .295 | 11 | 12 | 32% | 9% | 70 | -0.3 | .212/.315/.318 | .105 | .301 | 9 | 14 | 29% | 10% | 80 | +0.2 |
|
●James McCann 2012 · A |
22 | 41→51 | 42→50 | 49→45 | 39 | .203/.260/.306 | .103 | .288 | 9 | 7 | 32% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .223/.261/.310 | .087 | .291 | 6 | 6 | 24% | 4% | 55 | -1.4 | .254/.315/.415 | .161 | .331 | 20 | 4 | 28% | 7% | 104 | +1.1 |
|
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A |
22 | 39→49 | 40→50 | 50 | 43 | .189/.254/.283 | .094 | .277 | 7 | 6 | 33% | 8% | 46 | -2.0 | .211/.272/.298 | .087 | .290 | 7 | 8 | 28% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .226/.305/.377 | .151 | .297 | 15 | 13 | 28% | 10% | 89 | +0.7 |
|
✕Eric Fryer 2008 · A |
22 | 39→49 | 40→45 | 45→50 | 42 | .195/.249/.284 | .089 | .258 | 7 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 44 | -2.1 | .241/.298/.354 | .113 | .308 | 9 | 10 | 24% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .247/.311/.365 | .118 | .317 | 10 | 11 | 23% | 7% | 87 | +0.6 |
|
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A |
22 | 42 | 37→50 | 48→30 | 39 | .199/.255/.274 | .075 | .282 | 5 | 5 | 30% | 5% | 44 | -2.1 | .205/.260/.284 | .079 | .273 | 5 | 3 | 26% | 5% | 49 | -1.8 | .204/.263/.299 | .095 | .258 | 9 | 0 | 24% | 5% | 51 | -0.5 |
|
●Wynton Bernard 2013 · A |
22 | 44→54 | 39→45 | 52→60 | 42 | .208/.269/.296 | .088 | .301 | 6 | 10 | 31% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .242/.293/.332 | .090 | .318 | 5 | 19 | 24% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .270/.315/.362 | .092 | .329 | 5 | 28 | 19% | 6% | 86 | +0.7 |
|
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A |
22 | 41→48 | 37→45 | 48→45 | 45 | .193/.269/.270 | .078 | .280 | 4 | 7 | 31% | 8% | 50 | -1.8 | .211/.284/.310 | .099 | .294 | 8 | 5 | 29% | 8% | 66 | -0.6 | .219/.298/.332 | .113 | .294 | 11 | 3 | 27% | 9% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A |
22 | 41 | 39→40 | 49→40 | 40 | .198/.263/.282 | .084 | .277 | 6 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 50 | -1.7 | .218/.296/.304 | .086 | .283 | 8 | 4 | 24% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .219/.302/.289 | .070 | .280 | 7 | 1 | 22% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A |
22 | 45→48 | 42→50 | 51→50 | 43 | .218/.284/.328 | .110 | .300 | 9 | 11 | 29% | 7% | 71 | -0.3 | .204/.275/.332 | .128 | .317 | 14 | 12 | 38% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .220/.308/.345 | .126 | .328 | 13 | 10 | 34% | 8% | 84 | +0.4 |
|
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A |
21 | 43 | 39→50 | 51→45 | 39 | .202/.262/.293 | .090 | .301 | 6 | 7 | 33% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .193/.267/.305 | .112 | .296 | 13 | 8 | 37% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .178/.253/.291 | .113 | .253 | 15 | 7 | 34% | 7% | 47 | -0.8 |
|
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A |
22 | 40 | 37→55 | 50→30 | 45 | .190/.266/.263 | .073 | .266 | 4 | 7 | 28% | 8% | 47 | -1.9 | .209/.291/.323 | .114 | .277 | 12 | 5 | 27% | 8% | 74 | -0.1 | .207/.303/.355 | .148 | .256 | 18 | 3 | 26% | 9% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A |
22 | 41→51 | 41→45 | 48→50 | 38 | .204/.251/.304 | .100 | .277 | 9 | 9 | 29% | 5% | 50 | -1.7 | .233/.286/.332 | .099 | .320 | 10 | 11 | 29% | 6% | 72 | -0.2 | .231/.292/.316 | .084 | .322 | 9 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 67 | -0.4 |
|
✕Brandon Barnes 2008 · A |
22 | 37→47 | 38→55 | 46→50 | 37 | .181/.232/.260 | .079 | .269 | 5 | 7 | 34% | 5% | 30 | -3.1 | .197/.236/.309 | .112 | .291 | 11 | 6 | 35% | 4% | 45 | -2.1 | .244/.289/.369 | .125 | .331 | 12 | 16 | 29% | 5% | 80 | +0.3 |
|
✕David Bote 2015 · A |
22 | 39→48 | 38→55 | 43→45 | 44 | .186/.267/.266 | .080 | .264 | 4 | 7 | 29% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .223/.283/.331 | .108 | .286 | 9 | 6 | 24% | 6% | 71 | -0.3 | .234/.308/.397 | .164 | .298 | 19 | 6 | 27% | 8% | 95 | +1.0 |
|
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A |
22 | 41 | 39→50 | 50→40 | 41 | .194/.258/.283 | .089 | .288 | 5 | 5 | 33% | 7% | 48 | -1.9 | .206/.290/.322 | .116 | .364 | 11 | 3 | 42% | 10% | 72 | -0.2 | .191/.284/.307 | .117 | .346 | 12 | 2 | 44% | 11% | 63 | -0.4 |
|
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A |
22 | 39 | 38→40 | 45 | 45 | .191/.251/.267 | .076 | .256 | 5 | 5 | 26% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .211/.266/.279 | .068 | .290 | 4 | 6 | 27% | 7% | 50 | -1.8 | .235/.280/.283 | .048 | .303 | 3 | 7 | 22% | 6% | 52 | -0.5 |
|
●Alonzo Harris 2011 · A |
22 | 39→49 | 42→55 | 51→60 | 36 | .196/.232/.300 | .103 | .263 | 10 | 13 | 30% | 4% | 40 | -2.4 | .219/.261/.311 | .092 | .282 | 7 | 18 | 24% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .240/.296/.401 | .161 | .286 | 19 | 35 | 22% | 7% | 92 | +0.9 |
|
✕Devin Mann 2019 · A |
22 | 45 | 38→55 | 47→45 | 50 | .213/.290/.297 | .084 | .279 | 5 | 9 | 24% | 9% | 66 | -0.6 | .218/.289/.365 | .147 | .284 | 17 | 7 | 28% | 8% | 83 | +0.6 | .209/.294/.374 | .166 | .275 | 19 | 4 | 30% | 9% | 85 | +0.6 |
|
✕Anderson Gomes 2007 · A |
22 | 41→38 | 43→45 | 47→50 | 39 | .205/.252/.313 | .108 | .275 | 10 | 9 | 29% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .220/.270/.333 | .113 | .292 | 11 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .223/.275/.335 | .112 | .290 | 12 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 67 | -0.2 |