Luis Ariza — OGILVIE

Luis ArizaSS FCL Rays

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK HR +6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .265 / .285

PA6

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	105	+1	-1	—	—	+4	0.4
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	111	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	93	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	75	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	159	27	6	1	2	9	69	3	4	4	170	228	258	486	88	266	40	5	213	30	-14	-1	—	—	+4	-1.2
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	167	30	4	1	1	15	59	7	6	2	180	275	234	509	54	254	31	8	224	38	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	278	29	4	232	43	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	199	31	7	205	25	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	196	35	8	188	13	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	159	27	6	1	2	9	69	3	4	4	170	228	258	486	88	278	40	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	167	30	4	1	1	15	59	7	6	2	180	275	234	509	54	266	31	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	273	29	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	214	31	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	188	35	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	159	27	6	1	2	9	69	3	4	4	170	228	258	486	88	266	40	5	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	167	30	4	1	1	15	59	7	6	2	180	275	234	509	54	254	31	8	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	278	29	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	199	31	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	196	35	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	278	29	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	199	31	7	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	196	35	8	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	22	MLB MLE	TB	0%	6	6	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	167	167	167	333		285	33	0	253	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	34%	140	127	27	5	1	2	10	41	2	1	0	213	281	315	596	102	287	29	7	265	65	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	46%	262	238	51	10	2	4	19	74	3	3	1	214	281	324	604	109	288	28	7	273	71	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TB	52%	340	308	66	13	2	6	25	95	4	3	1	214	282	328	610	114	289	28	7	278	74	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	TB	54%	392	355	77	15	2	8	29	109	5	4	1	217	285	338	623	121	289	28	7	281	76	-11	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TB	54%	418	379	83	16	3	8	31	117	5	4	1	219	287	340	627	121	289	28	7	281	76	-12	+0	+0	+4	+9	0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	TB	54%	431	389	84	16	3	8	33	121	6	4	1	216	287	334	622	118	288	28	8	280	76	-13	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	431	389	83	16	2	8	33	122	6	4	1	213	285	326	612	113	288	28	8	278	74	-13	+0	-1	+5	+9	-0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	TB	57%	428	387	82	16	2	8	33	122	5	3	1	212	282	326	608	114	287	29	8	276	73	-14	+0	-2	+5	+9	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	34%	48	44	9	2	0	1	3	14	1	0	0	205	271	318	589	114	295	29	6	262	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	46%	121	109	24	5	1	2	9	34	2	1	0	220	292	339	631	119	297	28	7	270	71	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TB	52%	176	159	35	7	1	3	13	49	2	2	1	220	287	333	621	113	297	28	7	275	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TB	54%	213	192	42	8	1	4	16	59	3	2	1	219	289	333	622	115	297	28	8	278	76	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	TB	54%	227	205	45	9	1	4	17	63	3	2	1	220	289	332	621	112	297	28	7	278	76	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TB	54%	234	211	47	9	1	5	18	66	3	2	1	223	293	346	639	123	297	28	8	277	76	-7	+0	-0	+3	+5	0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	229	206	45	9	1	4	18	65	3	2	1	218	291	330	621	112	296	28	8	276	74	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	TB	57%	243	219	47	9	1	4	19	69	3	2	1	215	286	320	606	105	295	28	8	273	73	-8	+0	-1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1491	1345	294	58	7	27	113	419	20	13	6	219	289	332	621	114	295	28	8	275	67	-46	+0	-2	+16	+32	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	128	25	3	12	49	183	9	6	3	218	289	333	622	114	294	28	8	275	67	-20	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3416	3088	640	124	20	57	250	996	52	37	13	207	278	316	594	108	284	29	7	267	67	-88	+2	-4	+31	+62	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	123	24	4	11	48	190	10	7	2	209	281	320	600	111	286	29	7	267	67	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.3	1,554	28	15	216	282	330	+17	+15	1.1	1.1
/162	664	12	6	+7.1	+6.4	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Ariza (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	200/265/285	86	285	1	1	30%	7%	58	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	46→45	40	194/253/278	85	271	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	196/253/280	84	275	6	9	29%	6%	51	-2.2	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	41	41→40	46→45	39	201/255/297	96	286	8	8	32%	6%	55	-1.9	198/263/285	87	291	7	9	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/254/257	75	267	7	8	32%	8%	46	-1.1
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/258/283	79	271	6	3	26%	5%	54	-2.0	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→49	37→45	48→45	44	187/265/261	75	278	4	7	32%	8%	52	-2.2	212/285/310	98	296	8	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	42	40→55	49→40	39	208/248/301	93	281	8	6	28%	5%	53	-2.1	203/258/334	131	317	14	3	39%	5%	66	-1.1	194/261/373	179	295	22	1	40%	7%	74	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	41	39→40	44→65	38	195/256/276	80	309	6	7	37%	6%	51	-2.2	207/280/301	94	303	7	30	31%	7%	67	-1.1	200/278/292	91	290	6	42	30%	7%	62	-0.6
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	42	40→45	49→40	43	204/260/298	94	268	7	6	26%	6%	58	-1.7	192/251/306	114	277	11	4	33%	6%	57	-1.8	208/275/351	144	265	17	1	28%	7%	74	-0.2
✕Brendon Davis 2019 · A	22	41→43	39→50	43→50	39	197/256/284	87	304	7	5	36%	7%	53	-2.1	200/261/303	103	296	10	6	34%	7%	60	-1.6	194/266/353	159	252	19	9	30%	7%	71	-0.6
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	39	37→40	44→45	39	187/248/259	72	259	4	4	28%	5%	45	-2.7	223/289/310	87	301	6	6	26%	6%	72	-0.7	241/310/327	86	323	6	5	25%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Juan Aponte 2010 · A	22	43	39→45	47→40	42	205/270/296	91	272	6	5	26%	6%	61	-1.5	208/257/272	64	306	3	5	31%	5%	50	-2.3	199/234/217	18	292	0	0	30%	3%	29	-0.8
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/231/293	99	262	8	10	29%	4%	45	-2.7	197/236/286	89	278	6	9	30%	5%	45	-2.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Javier Castillo 2006 · A	22	39→49	38→45	47→45	37	191/238/267	76	273	5	6	31%	5%	42	-2.9	226/271/334	108	298	8	7	26%	5%	70	-0.9	243/287/361	118	312	9	6	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	44	40	50	39	211/267/307	95	311	8	8	33%	6%	63	-1.4	201/290/309	108	293	11	12	33%	9%	74	-0.6	213/316/315	101	301	9	14	29%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2015 · A	22	44→41	38→50	49→45	45	208/269/290	82	284	4	6	27%	7%	59	-1.6	212/265/333	121	287	14	3	30%	6%	68	-1.0	213/254/350	137	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→45	44→45	40	196/250/274	78	266	5	7	27%	5%	49	-2.4	214/267/306	92	306	8	6	31%	5%	62	-1.4	214/268/307	93	310	9	6	32%	5%	59	-0.8
✕Willy Diaz 2016 · A	22	39	38→40	43→40	46	187/275/268	81	281	6	3	33%	9%	58	-1.7	189/257/267	78	337	4	5	41%	7%	50	-2.3	169/224/243	75	318	2	4	44%	5%	29	-1.2
✕Pablo Aliendo 2023 · A	22	42	41→50	44→45	38	205/267/296	91	298	9	5	33%	6%	61	-1.5	198/264/334	136	299	16	5	37%	6%	69	-0.9	170/239/302	133	270	17	1	42%	5%	51	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps