Luis Ariza

SS FCL Rays

Age 23 R/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	19	ROKTB	69	.281/.333/.406	1	0	45	—	.200/.246/.292
2024	20	ROKTB	70	.217/.319/.367	1	1	24	—	.156/.217/.281
2025	21	ROKTB	65	.173/.338/.212	0	0	11	—	.109/.246/.127
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBTB	175	.196/.267/.279	2	2	56	0.0
2028PROJ29% MLB	24	MLBTB	19	.202/.273/.292	0	0	60	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%49

Z-Con%43

BB%41

Whiff%39

K%34

wRC+27

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .265 / .277

PA30

HR0

K%31

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	224	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	212	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	280	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	230	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	220	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	273	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	214	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	188	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 1	—	173	158	25	5	1	2	10	58	3	4	4	158	222	241	463	82	224	34	6	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	166	26	4	1	0	16	50	7	6	2	157	259	193	452	36	212	26	8	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	280	29	4	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	70	65	10	3	1	1	5	22	0	1	0	154	217	277	494	123	198	31	7	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	23	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	193	35	8	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	0%	175	157	31	6	1	2	13	55	3	2	1	196	267	279	546	83	285	31	7	251	56	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TB	29%	64	58	11	2	0	1	5	20	1	1	0	200	271	291	562	91	287	31	8	257	60	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TB	29%	19	18	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	202	273	292	565	90	290	32	5	258	60	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	19	18	3	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	167	211	222	433	56	250	32	5	258	31	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	616	102	34	0	0	34	205	0	0	0	166	209	221	430	55	248	32	5	258	31	-31	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	662	594	96	19	3	5	46	202	17	12	6	162	242	229	471	67	232	31	7	214	31	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	95	19	3	5	45	198	17	12	6	163	243	232	475	69	234	30	7	214	31	-32	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Rays · 65 PAwOBA .274 → .185 (−88)K% 24.6% → 36.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.62%	÷0.985	×1.440	—	—	35.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.31%	÷0.991	×0.620	—	×0.985	7.59%
HBP% /PA	7.69%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	5.46%
Singles /BIP	19.44%	÷1.018	×0.820	—	×0.985	15.42%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.026	×0.720	—	×0.985	3.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.809	×0.780	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 62, 1B 104, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .274 → .185; ISO .038 → .024; BABIP .250 → .193. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 70 PAwOBA .303 → .204 (−99)K% 21.4% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷0.980	×1.440	—	—	31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.86%	÷1.024	×0.620	—	×0.995	7.74%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.56%	÷1.024	×0.820	×0.970	×0.995	12.03%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷0.941	×0.720	×0.970	×0.995	6.57%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.970	×0.995	1.34%
Home runs /BIP	2.22%	÷1.002	×0.780	—	×0.995	1.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.

Result: wOBA .303 → .204; ISO .150 → .102; BABIP .267 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Rays · 69 PAwOBA .323 → .234 (−89)K% 20.3% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.29%	÷0.999	×1.440	—	—	29.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.80%	÷0.948	×0.620	—	×1.008	3.82%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.05%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷0.996	×0.820	×1.018	×1.008	20.27%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.020	×0.720	×1.018	×1.008	7.24%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	×1.018	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.00%	÷0.911	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .323 → .234; ISO .125 → .088; BABIP .347 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 191 PAwOBA .309 → .212 (−96)K% 20.9% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.94%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	26.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.04%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.008	8.62%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.58%
Singles /BIP	25.21%	÷0.981	×0.680	×1.009	×1.008	17.77%
Doubles /BIP	5.04%	÷0.973	×0.600	×1.009	×1.008	3.16%
Triples /BIP	0.84%	÷0.919	×0.600	×1.009	×1.008	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	0.84%	÷1.273	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.31%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .309 → .212; ISO .069 → .039; BABIP .308 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Rays 1 · 173 PAwOBA .319 → .200 (−119)K% 27.2% → 33.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.17%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	33.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.067	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.82%
HBP% /PA	1.73%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.24%
Singles /BIP	23.58%	÷1.008	×0.680	×1.019	×1.022	16.58%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷1.114	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	5.29%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷0.907	×0.600	×1.019	×1.022	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	2.83%	÷0.907	×0.470	—	×1.022	1.50%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 123, 3B 82, K 96, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .319 → .200; ISO .137 → .074; BABIP .343 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).