Luis Ariza — OGILVIE

Luis ArizaSS FCL Rays

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 155 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 64 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .265 / .285

PA64

HR1

K%30

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	160	26	5	1	2	8	71	3	4	4	163	216	244	460	81	270	41	5	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	167	29	4	1	0	15	60	7	6	2	174	270	210	479	36	266	31	8	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	65	13	3	0	1	3	20	1	0	0	200	246	292	539	92	273	29	4	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	64	10	3	1	1	5	23	0	1	0	156	217	281	499	125	220	33	7	203	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	55	6	1	0	0	5	24	5	0	0	109	246	127	373	18	194	37	8	185	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	TB	—	64	59	11	2	0	1	4	19	1	1	0	186	250	271	521	85	285	30	6	253	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TB	34%	140	127	26	5	1	2	10	41	2	1	0	205	273	307	580	102	287	29	7	265	61	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	TB	46%	262	238	51	10	2	4	19	75	3	3	1	214	281	324	604	109	288	29	7	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	25	MLB	TB	52%	340	308	66	13	2	6	25	96	4	3	1	214	282	328	610	114	289	28	7	277	71	-11	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.2
2030	26	MLB	TB	54%	392	355	77	15	2	8	29	110	5	4	1	217	285	338	623	121	289	28	7	280	73	-12	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.4
2031	27	MLB	TB	54%	418	379	82	16	2	8	31	118	5	4	1	216	284	332	617	116	289	28	7	280	73	-13	+0	+0	+4	+12	0.4
2027	23	MLB	TB	34%	48	44	9	2	0	1	3	14	1	0	0	205	271	318	589	114	291	29	6	256	54	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	24	MLB	TB	46%	121	109	23	4	1	2	9	35	2	1	0	211	283	321	604	110	292	29	7	264	60	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	25	MLB	TB	52%	176	159	35	7	1	3	13	50	2	2	1	220	287	333	621	113	293	28	7	269	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2030	26	MLB	TB	54%	213	192	42	8	1	4	16	60	3	2	1	219	289	333	622	115	293	28	8	272	66	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
2031	27	MLB	TB	54%	227	205	44	8	1	4	17	64	3	2	1	215	284	322	606	107	292	28	7	272	66	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	785	709	153	29	4	14	58	223	11	7	3	216	285	327	613	111	292	28	7	269	64	-32	+0	+0	+8	+22	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	127	24	3	12	48	185	9	6	2	216	285	329	614	112	293	28	7	269	64	-26	+0	+0	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	2184	1977	397	77	12	33	154	657	36	27	10	201	271	302	573	101	280	30	7	260	57	-106	+1	+0	+23	+62	-2.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	119	23	4	10	46	196	11	8	3	202	273	306	579	104	282	30	7	260	57	-32	+0	+0	+7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Rays 1	—	173	153	39	10	1	3	15	47	3	4	4	255	333	392	725	137	343	27	9	324	106	+1	-1	—	—	+5	0.5
2022	18	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	191	159	38	6	1	1	23	40	7	6	2	239	360	308	668	69	308	21	12	313	98	-1	+0	—	—	+5	0.5
2023	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	69	64	18	5	0	1	4	14	1	0	0	281	333	406	740	125	347	20	6	332	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	20	ROK	FCL Rays	—	70	60	13	4	1	1	9	15	0	1	0	217	319	367	686	150	267	21	13	306	93	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2025	21	ROK	FCL Rays	—	65	52	9	2	0	0	8	16	5	0	0	173	338	212	550	38	250	25	12	279	72	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	848	15	8	215	280	329	+9	+9	0.4	0.5
	/162	664	12	7	215	280	329	+7.1	+7.0	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Ariza (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	199/265/285	86	285	1	1	30%	7%	52	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Claudio Finol 2022 · A	22	40	39→40	46→45	40	193/251/277	85	270	5	6	30%	6%	43	-2.2	194/250/277	83	275	7	9	30%	6%	43	-2.2	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	49	-1.8	200/255/276	76	267	5	3	26%	5%	45	-2.1	193/253/280	87	245	8	0	24%	5%	42	-0.8
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	35	-2.8	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	60	-1.0	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	74	-0.0
✕Alex Todd 2012 · A	22	38	37→40	44→45	38	185/246/256	71	259	4	4	29%	5%	37	-2.7	220/285/305	85	299	6	6	27%	5%	65	-0.7	236/303/318	83	317	6	5	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Zach Green 2016 · A	22	43→41	41→55	49→40	39	210/252/306	96	286	8	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	204/259/337	133	322	14	3	39%	5%	63	-0.8	192/267/372	179	300	23	1	42%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Glenn Santiago 2023 · A	22	42	41→40	46→45	39	204/256/303	99	288	9	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	199/262/282	83	293	7	9	32%	7%	50	-1.8	183/253/253	70	269	6	8	32%	7%	37	-1.1
✕Steven Baron 2013 · A	22	39	41→45	50	37	193/232/296	103	263	8	10	30%	4%	40	-2.4	194/233/281	87	280	5	9	31%	5%	36	-2.7	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→50	37→45	48→45	45	189/266/266	77	278	4	7	31%	8%	47	-1.9	210/282/308	98	299	8	5	30%	8%	65	-0.7	232/306/347	116	310	11	3	27%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Brendon Davis 2019 · A	22	42→44	39→50	43→50	38	198/256/282	85	307	6	5	36%	6%	46	-2.0	200/260/307	107	300	10	6	35%	6%	55	-1.4	198/270/373	176	251	22	9	30%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	44→65	38	195/257/276	81	309	7	7	37%	6%	46	-2.0	209/283/301	92	307	6	30	31%	7%	63	-0.8	206/284/296	90	299	5	42	30%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	38	38→40	45	44	185/245/261	75	253	6	5	28%	7%	37	-2.7	210/264/277	67	293	4	6	28%	7%	48	-1.9	226/270/274	48	296	3	7	23%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Juan Aponte 2010 · A	22	43	39→45	47→40	42	205/270/296	91	272	6	5	26%	6%	56	-1.3	208/257/272	64	306	3	5	31%	5%	43	-2.2	199/234/217	18	292	0	0	30%	3%	20	-0.8
✕J.C. Millan 2018 · A	22	40	37→45	45→30	36	194/235/268	74	277	4	8	31%	4%	33	-2.9	221/267/321	100	274	9	6	22%	6%	61	-1.0	227/273/327	101	266	11	4	19%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Brandon Barnes 2008 · A	22	38→48	38→55	46→50	37	184/235/263	80	274	5	7	34%	5%	33	-2.9	199/238/312	113	297	11	6	35%	4%	46	-2.0	236/281/354	118	320	11	16	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Narbe Cruz 2023 · A	22	41	38→40	44→45	40	197/250/273	76	268	5	7	28%	5%	42	-2.3	215/268/305	90	308	8	6	31%	5%	58	-1.2	215/271/305	90	313	9	6	32%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	41→51	42→45	48→50	38	205/253/308	104	278	10	9	30%	5%	52	-1.6	235/290/335	100	323	11	12	29%	6%	75	-0.0	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Willy Diaz 2016 · A	22	39	38→40	43→40	46	187/275/268	81	281	6	3	33%	9%	53	-1.5	189/257/267	78	337	4	5	41%	7%	43	-2.2	169/224/243	75	318	2	4	44%	5%	20	-1.2