Nate Dahle

P Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	ROKTB	3	3	6.75	1.98	25.0%	8.3%	—	K 25.0% · BB 8.3% · FIP 2.04
2023	25	MIX2 levels	29	44	2.47	3.10	28.5%	6.4%	—	K 21.7% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.40
2024	26	MIX2 levels	32	51	4.06	3.04	26.6%	7.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	33	35	4.37	4.37	22.2%	8.8%	0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	30	MLBTB	10	10	4.47	4.54	22.0%	9.1%	0.0

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNeil Wagner (age 29) · Joe Nelson (age 31) · Tyler Sturdevant (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP35

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	3	0	3	12	3	1	0	0%	0.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.04	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	3	0	3	12	3	1	0	0%	0.9	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	6.75	1.98	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	44	172	49	11	5	0%	1.5	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	3.9%	2.47	4.40	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	44	172	49	11	5	0%	1.5	28.5%	6.4%	22.1%	2.9%	2.47	3.10	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.06	3.97	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	51	218	58	16	5	0%	1.6	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.3%	4.06	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	33	0	35	148	33	13	4	0%	1.1	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	31	0	33	139	31	13	4	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.16	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	80	20	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.1%	12.8%	3.2%	4.47	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		64	0	97	402	85	32	13	0%	1.5	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	3.2%	3.42	4.10	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	826	175	66	27	0%	1.5	21.2%	8.0%	13.2%	3.2%	3.42	4.10	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Dahle (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.2%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.54	22.0%	12.8%	33	+0.17	—	—	—
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	91
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	86
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	86
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	85
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	84
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	84
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	84
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	82
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	80
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	79
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	79
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	22.1%	9.0%	1.20	4.42
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*