Brendan Beck

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 218 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEFG #516Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	10	10	34	1.59	2.13	31.0%	5.4%	—	K 22.5% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.19
2025	26	MIX2 levels	26	24	131	3.36	3.44	23.6%	6.9%	—	K 19.8% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.82
2026	27	MIX2 levels	29	27	148	3.53	3.26	27.4%	8.0%	3.0	K 23.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.54
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	15	15	90	4.13	4.02	21.4%	5.3%	0.9
2028PROJ61% MLB	29	MLBNYY	9	9	52	4.30	4.32	20.8%	5.8%	0.4
2029PROJ72% MLB	30	MLBNYY	10	10	58	4.45	4.54	20.2%	6.2%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%90

K%51

FB Velo22

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR-0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsYohan Pino (age 30) · Todd Redmond (age 28) · Ryan Watson (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.13

FIP4.02

K%21.4%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%16.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—60

CMD7070

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p9035.5%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.401

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.1%	1.59	3.19	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	34	129	40	7	2	100%	3.4	31.0%	5.4%	25.6%	1.6%	1.59	2.13	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	2.8%	3.36	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	19.8%	6.7%	13.1%	2.8%	3.36	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	131	522	123	36	14	92%	5.1	23.6%	6.9%	16.7%	2.7%	3.36	3.44	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.54	+2.4
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.53	3.54	+2.4
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	27	148	598	164	48	16	93%	5.1	27.4%	8.0%	19.4%	2.7%	3.53	3.26	+3.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	2	13	58	13	8	6	50%	3.2	22.4%	13.8%	8.6%	10.3%	9.95	9.10	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	15	15	90	380	81	20	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	5.3%	16.1%	3.0%	4.13	4.02	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	86	363	76	21	12	100%	6.1	20.8%	5.8%	15.1%	3.2%	4.18	4.20	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	81	341	69	21	12	100%	6.2	20.2%	6.2%	14.0%	3.4%	4.32	4.41	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	75	318	69	19	11	100%	5.8	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.6%	4.34	4.36	+0.5
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	70	294	61	19	11	100%	5.8	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	3.8%	4.51	4.62	+0.2
2032	33	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	64	270	54	18	11	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.1%	4.74	4.89	+0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	52	220	46	13	7	100%	5.8	20.8%	5.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.30	4.32	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	58	245	50	15	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	6.2%	14.0%	3.6%	4.45	4.54	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	54	15	10	100%	5.9	21.6%	5.8%	15.8%	3.8%	4.47	4.49	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	59	249	52	16	10	100%	5.9	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	4.1%	4.65	4.76	+0.2
2032	33	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	47	16	10	100%	6.2	20.0%	6.8%	13.2%	4.4%	4.89	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		51	49	297	1257	261	82	52	96%	5.8	20.8%	6.5%	14.3%	4.2%	4.78	4.45	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	176	55	35	96%	5.8	20.8%	6.5%	14.3%	4.2%	4.78	4.45	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		65	61	313	1249	275	87	34	94%	4.8	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.62	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	797	176	56	22	94%	4.8	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.25	3.62	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brendan Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	21.4%	5.3%	3.0%	—	4.32	20.9%	14.9%	242	+0.30	—	—	—
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	75
Todd Redmond R 2013 · 4.14 FIP	28	SP-	4.14	23.5%	6.5%	4.0%	.266	3.57	17.0%	10.1%	170	-0.57	3.21	247	73
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	72
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	72
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	69
Andrew Triggs R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.7%	6.7%	3.5%	.288	4.68	23.6%	13.7%	41	+0.30	1.66	242	69
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	68
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	67
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	67
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	66
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	66
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	66
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	65
Trevor Foss R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	26	SP	3.77	17.3%	3.5%	3.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	120	65
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	65
Danny Gutierrez R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	15.0%	5.8%	1.4%	.358	4.26	12.4%	4.0%	186	+0.92	3.34	239	64
J.D. Martin R 2010 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	14.6%	4.7%	4.2%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	414	63
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	63
Andy Ferguson R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SP	3.10	18.6%	8.0%	1.0%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	137	63
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	80	20.9%	6.2%	1.42	4.50
Mark Huismann ('83-'91, 1 WAR*)	1.5	74	23.8%*	6.5%*	1.30*	4.49*
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Tom Gorman ('52-'59, 4 WAR*)	3.4	86	18.4%*	7.2%*	1.42*	4.05*
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06