Erik Martinez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Erik Martinez P ACL Angels

Age 30 RHP 5'11" / 193 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%23.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	65	270	83	24	2	3%	1.7	24.0%	9.9%	14.1%	0.5%	2.64	2.59	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	38	1	65	270	83	24	2	3%	1.7	24.0%	9.9%	14.1%	0.5%	2.64	2.59	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	38	1	65	270	83	24	2	3%	1.7	30.7%	8.9%	21.9%	0.7%	2.64	2.05	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	3	13	6	0	1	33%	1.1	46.2%	0.0%	46.2%	7.7%	8.10	3.42	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	3	13	6	0	1	33%	1.1	46.2%	0.0%	46.2%	7.7%	8.10	3.42	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	3	13	6	0	1	33%	1.1	46.2%	0.0%	46.2%	7.7%	8.10	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	2.9%	4.34	4.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	SEA	38	0	40	168	38	17	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.54	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	SEA	11	0	12	51	12	5	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	11	5	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.16	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	84	34	0%	1.1	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	3.1%	4.46	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		41	2	68	283	71	27	2	5%	1.7	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	0.8%	2.91	2.63	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	6	200	832	209	79	7	5%	1.7	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	0.8%	2.91	2.63	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erik Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	23.1%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.54	22.7%	12.8%	40	+0.20	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	89
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	82
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78
Kiko Calero R 2005 · 3.51 FIP	30	SU	3.51	22.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.252	3.23	23.3%	13.9%	99	-0.28	2.27	298	78
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Brian Schlitter R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	30	SU	3.28	20.6%	10.8%	1.0%	.333	3.81	14.4%	6.6%	110	+0.53	3.27	300	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	77
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	77
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	76
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	76
Chris Smith R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	24.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	199	76
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	22.9%	9.7%	1.17	4.40
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78