Estiven Machado — OGILVIE

Estiven MachadoSS Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .268 / .282

PA125

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	351	79	18	3	1	26	133	3	6	3	225	284	302	586	77	359	35	7	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	339	89	19	3	1	38	97	3	6	3	263	342	345	687	83	365	26	10	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	227	34	7	1	1	15	76	7	8	2	150	225	203	428	53	220	31	6	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	219	41	9	1	1	23	57	7	8	2	187	285	251	536	64	248	23	9	255	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	196	29	4	1	1	17	65	3	1	5	148	227	194	421	46	211	30	8	200	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	188	36	7	1	2	25	45	3	1	5	191	296	271	568	80	236	21	11	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TOR	—	125	113	23	5	1	1	9	32	2	2	1	204	274	292	566	88	266	26	7	254	53	-7	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	159	144	30	6	1	2	12	39	2	3	1	208	278	306	584	97	270	25	8	267	63	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	266	241	51	10	1	4	20	65	3	5	2	212	280	311	592	100	272	24	8	275	69	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	339	306	66	13	2	6	26	82	4	6	2	216	286	330	616	114	273	24	8	279	72	-11	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	379	341	74	14	2	7	30	92	5	7	3	217	290	331	621	114	273	24	8	280	73	-12	+0	+0	+4	+11	0.3
2027	24	MLB	TOR	30%	48	43	9	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	209	292	326	617	116	271	25	8	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	TOR	44%	118	107	23	4	1	2	9	29	1	2	1	215	282	327	609	112	273	25	8	267	62	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	26	MLB	TOR	51%	172	155	34	7	1	3	13	42	2	3	1	219	288	335	624	116	274	24	8	271	66	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
2030	27	MLB	TOR	52%	199	179	40	8	1	4	16	48	2	4	1	223	294	346	641	123	275	24	8	272	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	537	484	106	21	3	10	42	131	6	10	3	219	289	337	626	118	277	24	8	270	65	-22	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	25	4	12	51	159	7	12	4	218	289	336	625	118	277	24	8	270	65	-26	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	2116	1919	386	77	12	23	155	584	29	38	19	201	271	290	561	89	275	28	7	255	53	-112	+0	+0	+23	+60	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	119	24	4	7	48	179	9	12	6	202	272	292	564	90	276	28	7	255	53	-35	+0	+0	+7	+18	-0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	339	89	19	3	1	38	97	3	6	3	263	342	345	687	83	365	26	10	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+11	1.1
2023	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	219	41	9	1	1	23	57	7	8	2	187	285	251	536	64	248	23	9	255	54	-13	+1	—	—	+7	-0.5
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	188	36	7	1	2	25	45	3	1	5	191	296	271	568	80	236	21	11	265	61	-10	-2	—	—	+6	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#1Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	537	9	10	216	284	328	+6	+6	0.4	0.4
	/162	664	12	12	216	284	328	+7.1	+7.4	0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Estiven Machado (OGILVIE)	23	35→40	32→37	44→49	53	200/268/282	82	266	1	2	25%	7%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Frainyer Chavez 2022 · A	23	43→47	35→40	46→50	47	199/275/254	55	281	3	11	28%	9%	48	-1.9	207/271/278	71	290	5	13	28%	8%	52	-1.6	228/293/326	98	302	11	17	26%	8%	71	-0.2
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	195/254/270	74	274	4	12	29%	7%	42	-2.3	214/267/300	86	306	4	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	225/274/314	90	324	0	8	29%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	43	39→40	49→55	44	209/265/293	84	274	6	7	25%	7%	53	-1.5	210/281/284	74	303	4	21	29%	8%	58	-1.2	201/279/263	62	296	3	27	30%	9%	50	-0.6
✕Carlos Ramirez 2012 · A	23	42	38→40	47→45	48	203/268/279	77	249	6	8	21%	8%	51	-1.7	196/265/268	72	265	6	8	26%	8%	47	-1.9	143/229/152	10	209	0	6	28%	9%	1	-1.2
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	23	41→46	35→40	47→50	46	192/255/257	64	260	2	10	26%	8%	40	-2.4	204/256/289	85	277	5	8	27%	6%	48	-1.9	210/295/360	150	264	16	2	26%	10%	80	+0.1
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→44	36→40	51→50	45	179/255/247	68	273	4	15	33%	9%	37	-2.6	199/279/294	95	294	8	14	32%	10%	59	-1.1	198/284/290	92	298	8	15	33%	10%	58	-0.7
✕Cal Conley 2022 · A	23	41→49	39→40	50→55	41	200/264/285	86	280	6	13	30%	6%	51	-1.7	215/266/315	100	285	9	23	26%	6%	59	-1.1	216/267/307	91	282	7	28	25%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Sammy Diaz 2014 · A	23	47	37→40	49→50	49	220/277/286	67	256	4	8	16%	7%	56	-1.3	237/281/329	92	278	5	8	16%	6%	68	-0.5	247/284/344	97	281	2	5	12%	5%	71	-0.1
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	38→44	39→45	47→40	54	184/290/266	83	249	7	6	27%	12%	59	-1.1	192/281/280	88	271	9	4	30%	10%	59	-1.1	204/292/309	105	261	11	0	25%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→41	40	49→50	53	207/296/306	99	256	7	13	21%	10%	71	-0.3	215/295/304	89	278	6	10	23%	9%	69	-0.4	208/296/270	62	273	3	6	23%	9%	57	-0.5
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	205/266/285	80	275	6	9	27%	7%	52	-1.6	212/262/306	94	320	8	4	34%	6%	55	-1.4	201/249/291	90	304	8	0	35%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→46	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	62	-0.9	224/322/278	54	314	2	26	25%	12%	75	-0.0	217/330/261	45	297	1	34	24%	14%	71	-0.2
✕Carlos Colmenares 2009 · A	23	43→53	39→40	47→50	45	208/276/292	84	279	7	12	27%	7%	58	-1.2	233/281/303	70	311	2	13	24%	6%	62	-0.9	271/304/429	158	312	13	17	17%	5%	101	+0.4
✕David Gonzalez 2017 · A	23	43→42	36→30	47→45	46	205/256/274	69	251	4	9	19%	6%	43	-2.2	195/248/262	67	235	4	10	18%	6%	37	-2.6	154/205/182	29	180	0	10	14%	5%	-2	-2.2
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4
✕Marcus Littlewood 2015 · A	23	41	41→45	49→45	46	201/266/303	102	266	8	5	27%	8%	56	-1.3	214/272/330	116	284	11	5	27%	7%	66	-0.6	212/266/328	116	280	12	3	28%	7%	60	-0.5
✕Robi Estrada 2012 · A	23	44	36→40	51→50	48	209/271/270	61	267	3	13	22%	8%	49	-1.8	215/268/300	85	265	6	9	20%	7%	56	-1.3	215/262/305	90	262	8	9	21%	6%	51	-0.5
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	41	37→40	45→50	44	197/255/273	76	263	4	7	26%	7%	43	-2.2	211/273/309	98	276	8	11	25%	7%	61	-1.0	203/270/297	93	260	8	13	24%	8%	54	-0.7
✕Christian Lara 2008 · A	23	42→49	39→45	49→50	43	203/264/292	89	282	7	10	29%	7%	53	-1.5	213/264/307	94	308	6	10	31%	6%	56	-1.3	222/274/324	102	300	8	9	27%	6%	62	-0.6