Estiven Machado — OGILVIE

Estiven MachadoSS Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 S/R 5'9" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 125 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .268 / .285

PA10

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	339	89	19	3	1	38	97	3	6	3	263	342	345	687	83	365	26	10	315	99	-0	+0	—	—	+8	0.8
2023	20	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	219	41	9	1	1	23	57	7	8	2	187	285	251	536	64	248	23	9	255	59	-12	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2024	21	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	188	36	7	1	2	25	45	3	1	5	191	296	271	568	80	236	21	11	265	65	-9	-2	—	—	+5	-0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	350	77	17	3	1	27	135	3	6	3	220	282	294	576	74	356	36	7	256	59	-18	+0	—	—	+8	-1.0
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	227	34	7	1	1	15	78	7	8	2	150	225	203	428	53	219	31	6	190	15	-25	+1	—	—	+5	-1.9
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	197	30	5	1	1	16	64	3	1	5	152	227	203	430	51	206	29	7	199	21	-21	-2	—	—	+5	-1.8
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	350	77	17	3	1	27	135	3	6	3	220	282	294	576	74	355	36	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	339	89	19	3	1	38	97	3	6	3	263	342	345	687	83	365	26	10	315	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	227	34	7	1	1	15	78	7	8	2	150	225	203	428	53	223	31	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	219	41	9	1	1	23	57	7	8	2	187	285	251	536	64	248	23	9	255	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	197	30	5	1	1	16	64	3	1	5	152	227	203	430	51	215	29	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	188	36	7	1	2	25	45	3	1	5	191	296	271	568	80	236	21	11	265	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	380	347	77	17	3	1	27	135	3	6	3	222	282	297	578	75	356	36	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	225	34	7	1	1	15	78	7	8	2	151	225	204	429	53	219	31	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	198	30	5	1	1	16	64	3	1	5	152	227	202	429	51	206	29	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	249	225	34	7	1	1	15	78	7	8	2	151	225	204	429	53	219	31	6	190	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	219	198	30	5	1	1	16	64	3	1	5	152	227	202	429	51	206	29	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		267	30	10	255	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	159	144	30	6	1	2	12	39	2	3	1	208	278	306	584	97	270	25	8	268	67	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	266	241	51	10	1	4	20	64	3	5	2	212	280	311	592	100	272	24	8	276	73	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	339	306	67	13	2	6	26	82	4	6	2	219	289	333	622	114	273	24	8	280	75	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	379	341	75	15	2	7	30	91	5	7	3	220	293	337	630	117	273	24	8	281	76	-11	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	402	362	78	15	2	7	32	97	5	7	3	215	288	326	614	110	273	24	8	280	76	-12	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	409	368	79	15	2	7	33	100	5	7	3	215	288	323	612	109	272	24	8	278	75	-12	+0	-1	+4	+9	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	411	370	79	15	2	7	33	101	5	7	3	214	287	322	608	108	272	25	8	276	73	-13	+0	-2	+4	+9	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	48	43	9	2	0	1	4	12	1	1	0	209	292	326	617	116	272	25	8	260	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	118	107	24	5	1	2	9	29	1	2	1	224	291	346	636	121	273	25	8	268	73	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	172	155	34	7	1	3	13	41	2	3	1	219	288	335	624	116	274	24	8	272	75	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	199	179	40	8	1	4	16	48	2	4	1	223	294	346	641	123	275	24	8	273	76	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	214	192	42	8	1	4	17	52	3	4	1	219	292	333	626	115	274	24	8	272	76	-6	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	215	193	42	8	1	4	17	52	3	4	1	218	291	332	623	114	274	24	8	271	75	-6	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	214	192	42	8	1	4	17	53	3	3	1	219	292	333	626	115	273	25	8	268	73	-7	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1180	1061	233	46	6	22	93	287	15	21	6	220	292	336	628	117	278	24	8	270	64	-36	+2	-2	+13	+26	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	128	25	3	12	51	158	8	12	3	219	290	334	624	115	278	24	8	270	64	-20	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3223	2915	601	118	17	43	245	854	42	57	27	206	277	303	580	96	274	26	8	263	64	-73	+2	-4	+25	+51	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	121	24	3	9	49	172	8	11	5	206	276	303	578	97	273	26	8	263	64	-20	+0	-1	+7	+14	0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.8	1,181	21	20	217	285	329	+13	+9	1.0	1.0
/162	664	12	12	+7.1	+5.1	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Estiven Machado (OGILVIE)	23	36→41	32→37	44→49	52	202/268/285	84	267	1	2	25%	7%	59	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gerard Hall 2011 · A	23	41→39	37→40	49→50	44	196/256/272	76	277	4	12	29%	7%	50	-2.3	214/268/301	87	306	3	10	29%	7%	61	-1.5	225/275/316	91	323	0	8	28%	6%	64	-0.7
✕Elih Marrero 2021 · A	24	44	39→40	49→55	44	210/266/295	85	273	6	7	25%	7%	59	-1.7	214/286/290	76	305	4	21	28%	9%	66	-1.1	210/267/320	110	294	8	22	29%	6%	62	-0.4
✕Frainyer Chavez 2022 · A	23	44→48	35→40	46→50	46	203/276/259	55	287	2	11	28%	8%	55	-1.9	210/273/279	69	293	5	13	28%	7%	58	-1.7	225/293/309	84	295	8	18	25%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Carlos Ramirez 2012 · A	23	43	38→40	47→45	48	205/272/280	75	254	6	8	21%	8%	59	-1.7	198/267/269	71	267	6	8	26%	8%	54	-2.0	146/231/157	11	210	0	6	27%	9%	14	-1.1
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→45	36→40	51→50	45	181/256/249	69	269	4	15	32%	9%	45	-2.7	201/280/295	94	290	8	14	30%	10%	65	-1.2	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Austin Elkins 2014 · A	23	43→42	40	49→50	53	208/296/306	98	259	7	13	22%	10%	74	-0.5	216/295/307	91	278	7	10	23%	9%	74	-0.6	211/298/277	66	273	4	6	22%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→45	36→30	48→60	47	224/285/296	72	288	3	10	22%	7%	66	-1.1	229/326/283	54	319	2	26	25%	12%	80	-0.2	223/334/268	45	305	1	34	23%	14%	77	-0.2
✕Michael Papierski 2019 · A	23	37→44	39→40	47→40	54	180/284/263	83	241	7	6	26%	11%	61	-1.5	192/281/278	86	270	8	4	29%	10%	63	-1.4	200/288/293	93	258	9	0	25%	10%	66	-0.6
✕Yoel Romero 2021 · A	23	43	38→40	46→50	45	206/268/286	80	275	6	9	26%	7%	58	-1.7	216/267/308	92	323	7	4	33%	6%	62	-1.4	212/260/299	87	317	7	0	34%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Chace Numata 2016 · A	23	48	36→40	49→40	46	228/278/295	67	274	3	5	18%	6%	63	-1.3	238/287/317	79	284	4	4	16%	6%	72	-0.7	235/284/315	80	276	3	2	16%	6%	68	-0.5
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	23	42→46	36→40	47→50	46	199/262/267	68	267	2	10	25%	8%	51	-2.2	207/260/295	88	280	5	8	26%	6%	57	-1.8	212/294/350	138	266	14	2	25%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Sammy Diaz 2014 · A	23	48	37→40	49→50	49	225/283/292	68	263	5	8	16%	7%	65	-1.2	238/282/329	91	280	5	8	16%	6%	72	-0.7	247/283/340	93	281	3	5	13%	5%	73	-0.3
✕Riley Unroe 2019 · AAA	23	41→48	37→45	46→55	45	196/266/268	71	281	5	12	30%	8%	53	-2.1	217/278/313	96	294	8	11	27%	7%	68	-1.0	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Trent Woodward 2015 · A	23	43	41→45	47→30	47	207/286/310	103	278	7	6	27%	8%	72	-0.7	220/287/309	89	313	7	4	29%	8%	71	-0.8	220/290/306	86	311	8	1	30%	8%	68	-0.3
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Robi Estrada 2012 · A	23	45	36→40	51→50	48	212/271/275	63	270	3	13	22%	8%	56	-1.9	219/271/307	88	269	6	9	20%	7%	63	-1.3	217/265/303	85	265	7	9	20%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Carlos Colmenares 2009 · A	23	43→53	39→40	47→50	45	208/276/292	84	279	7	12	27%	7%	63	-1.4	236/285/306	70	315	2	13	24%	6%	68	-1.0	259/295/394	135	304	9	17	18%	5%	89	+0.1
✕Elio Sarmiento 2009 · A	23	42	38→45	46→45	42	205/256/282	77	258	6	4	23%	5%	53	-2.1	226/277/318	92	291	6	6	23%	6%	69	-0.9	234/284/335	102	298	6	5	22%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Cal Conley 2022 · A	23	42→48	39→40	50→55	41	202/266/290	88	280	7	13	29%	6%	59	-1.7	211/262/307	96	279	8	23	26%	6%	60	-1.6	211/262/295	84	276	7	28	25%	6%	55	-1.8
✕Oliver Dominguez 2012 · A	23	40	40	52→45	49	197/272/290	93	263	7	15	27%	9%	61	-1.5	198/260/296	98	289	8	8	32%	7%	57	-1.8	182/242/277	95	271	7	3	34%	7%	44	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps