Justin Guerrero — OGILVIE

Justin GuerreroC FCL Cardinals

Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .260 / .282

PA4

HR0

K%32

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	74	65	6	0	0	0	9	27	0	0	0	92	203	92	295		158	36	12	158	-7	-9	+0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2022	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals	—	99	84	23	6	1	1	12	17	2	0	1	274	378	405	782	131	328	17	12	352	124	+3	-0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	54	45	11	2	0	2	7	12	1	1	0	244	358	422	781	178	281	22	13	346	120	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	21	ROK	FCL Cardinals	—	68	60	8	0	0	1	5	19	2	0	0	133	224	183	407	50	171	28	7	197	19	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	74	68	4	0	0	0	6	37	0	0	0	59	135	59	194		119	50	8	96	-49	-13	+0	—	—	+2	-1.2
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	99	89	18	4	1	1	7	25	2	0	1	202	276	303	579	101	254	25	7	249	55	-5	-0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	54	48	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	167	245	250	495	83	221	31	7	247	53	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	68	62	6	0	0	1	3	27	2	0	0	97	164	145	309	48	136	40	4	134	-23	-10	+0	—	—	+1	-0.9
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	74	68	4	0	0	0	6	37	0	0	0	59	135	59	194		129	50	8	96	-49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	74	65	6	0	0	0	9	27	0	0	0	92	203	92	295		158	36	12	158	-49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	99	89	18	4	1	1	7	25	2	0	1	202	276	303	579	101	266	25	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	—	99	84	23	6	1	1	12	17	2	0	1	274	378	405	782	131	328	17	12	352	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	54	48	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	167	245	250	495	83	226	31	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	54	45	11	2	0	2	7	12	1	1	0	244	358	422	781	178	281	22	13	346	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	68	62	6	0	0	1	3	27	2	0	0	97	164	145	309	48	143	40	4	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	—	68	60	8	0	0	1	5	19	2	0	0	133	224	183	407	50	171	28	7	197	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	—	74	68	4	0	0	0	6	37	0	0	0	59	135	59	194		119	50	8	96	-49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	—	99	90	18	4	1	1	7	25	2	0	1	200	276	300	576	100	254	25	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	54	49	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	163	245	245	490	82	221	31	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	68	63	6	0	0	1	3	27	2	0	0	95	164	143	307	48	136	40	4	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	54	49	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	163	245	245	490	82	221	31	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	—	68	63	6	0	0	1	3	27	2	0	0	95	164	143	307	48	136	40	4	134	-23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	23	MLB MLE	STL	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		287	25	0	249	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	29%	105	96	20	3	1	2	7	33	1	1	0	208	269	323	592	115	289	31	7	259	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	45%	221	200	42	7	1	4	16	67	3	2	1	210	279	315	594	105	289	30	7	266	66	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	54%	305	276	59	9	2	6	22	92	4	3	1	214	281	326	608	112	289	30	7	270	69	-11	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	58%	352	319	68	11	2	7	26	105	4	3	1	213	281	326	607	113	289	30	7	271	70	-13	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	61%	381	345	73	12	2	7	28	114	5	4	1	212	280	319	599	107	288	30	7	270	69	-14	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	62%	391	354	74	12	2	7	29	118	5	3	1	209	278	314	592	105	288	30	7	268	68	-15	+0	-1	+7	+8	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	29%	31	29	5	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	288	32	6	248	62	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	45%	100	92	20	3	1	2	7	30	1	1	0	217	280	337	617	120	288	30	7	254	66	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	54%	165	150	32	5	1	3	12	50	2	2	1	213	280	320	600	107	288	30	7	258	69	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	58%	205	186	39	6	1	4	15	61	2	2	1	210	276	317	593	108	288	30	7	259	70	-7	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	61%	232	210	44	7	1	4	17	70	3	2	1	210	278	310	588	100	288	30	7	259	69	-9	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	62%	243	220	45	7	1	4	18	73	3	2	1	205	274	300	574	95	287	30	7	257	68	-9	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	976	887	185	29	5	17	71	294	11	9	4	209	276	310	586	101	290	30	7	257	60	-37	+0	-1	+17	+21	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	122	19	3	11	47	196	7	6	3	206	273	305	577	98	287	30	7	257	60	-25	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	2054	1861	373	59	11	36	148	636	27	17	6	200	269	302	571	102	280	31	7	256	60	-67	+1	-2	+31	+38	0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	117	19	3	11	47	201	9	5	2	199	269	297	566	98	278	31	7	256	60	-25	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
	/162	664	7	9	233	273	324	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.5	1,027	19	10	210	274	316	+18	+16	0.8	0.8
	/162	664	12	6	210	274	316	+11.9	+10.3	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps