Justin GuerreroC FCL Cardinals
Age 23 R/R 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj PA
wRC+†49
AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .260 / .283
PA50
HR1
K%32
BB%7
ISO86
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -2.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: -0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.20.1+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.3M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202118 ROKDSL Cardinals Blue — 7469 4000 5350 00 5812258180 118 477 96 -68 — — — — — —
202118 ROKDSL Cardinals Blue — 7465 6000 9270 00 9220392295 158 3612 158 -21 — — — — — —
202219 ROKDSL Cardinals — 9989 18511 7252 01 202276315590 112266 257 254 53 — — — — — —
202219 ROKDSL Cardinals — 9984 23611 12172 01 274378405782 131328 1712 352 127 — — — — — —
202320 ROKFCL Cardinals — 5448 8101 4171 10 167245250495 83226 317 247 47 — — — — — —
202320 ROKFCL Cardinals — 5445 11202 7121 10 244358422781 178281 2213 346 123 — — — — — —
202421 ROKFCL Cardinals — 6862 6001 3262 00 97164145309 48139 384 134 -39 — — — — — —
202421 ROKFCL Cardinals — 6860 8001 5192 00 133224183407 50171 287 197 9 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season
202623 MLBSTL — 5046 9101 3161 00 196260283543 87287 326 250 49 -3 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724 MLBSTL 30% 10596 20312 7331 10 208269323592 115289 317 260 57 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
202825 MLBSTL 44% 221201 42714 15673 21 209274313587 104289 307 266 62 -10 +0 +0 +4 +6 0.1
202926 MLBSTL 51% 305276 59926 22924 31 214281326608 112290 307 270 65 -12 +0 +0 +5 +9 0.2
203027 MLBSTL 52% 352319 681127 261054 31 213281326607 113289 307 271 66 -14 +0 +0 +6 +10 0.3
203128 MLBSTL 53% 381345 731227 281145 41 212280319599 107289 307 270 65 -15 +0 -1 +7 +11 0.2
203229 MLBSTL 53% 391354 741227 291185 31 209278314592 105288 307 268 64 -16 +0 -1 +7 +11 0.1
202724 MLBSTL 30% 3230 6101 2100 00 200250333583 133289 316 251 50 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 -0.0
202825 MLBSTL 44% 9890 19312 7301 10 211276333609 122289 317 257 55 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 -0.0
202926 MLBSTL 51% 155141 30513 11472 21 213279326605 113289 307 261 58 -7 +0 +0 +3 +4 -0.0
203027 MLBSTL 52% 184167 36614 13552 21 216280335616 120289 307 262 59 -9 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.0
203128 MLBSTL 53% 203184 39614 15612 21 212279321599 109289 307 261 58 -10 +0 -0 +4 +6 -0.1
203229 MLBSTL 53% 205186 39614 15622 21 210276317593 108288 307 259 57 -10 +0 -1 +4 +6 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 877798 16927518 632659 94 212277326603 114291 307 260 57 -42 +0 -1 +16 +25 -0.3
/ 162G— — 650591 12520413 471967 73 212278325602 113291 307 260 57 -31 +0 -1 +12 +18 -0.2
Career— — 21001905 381611137 14964828 176 200268302570 102279 317 257 55 -108 +1 -2 +38 +60 -1.2
/ 162G— — 650590 11719311 462019 52 198267297564 98277 317 257 55 -33 +0 -1 +12 +18 -0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202118 ROKDSL Cardinals Blue — 7465 6000 9270 00 9220392295 158 3612 158 -21 -10 +0 — — +2 -0.8
202219 ROKDSL Cardinals — 9984 23611 12172 01 274378405782 131328 1712 352 127 +3 -0 — — +3 0.6
202320 ROKFCL Cardinals — 5445 11202 7121 10 244358422781 178281 2213 346 123 +1 +0 — — +2 0.3
202421 ROKFCL Cardinals — 6860 8001 5192 00 133224183407 50171 287 197 9 -7 +0 — — +2 -0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09
career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA
101,524292226288351+19+143.84.3
/162664131+8.5+6.21.6pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons
4927179211274317+17+160.40.4
/162664126+11.9+11.50.3pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Justin Guerrero (OGILVIE) 23 — — — — 197/260/283 85287 10 32% 7% 49 -0.1 ————————— —————————
✕Grayson Greiner
2016 · A 		23 37 38→45 46→30 35 180/230/254 74285 63 38% 6% 28 -3.2 209/261/311 102295 93 31% 6% 56 -1.3 214/272/32411028810028%7%62-0.5
✕Steven Baron
2014 · A 		23 34 40→45 53→50 34 176/209/269 93256 69 34% 4% 22 -3.7 215/263/298 83301 59 28% 6% 53 -1.5 240/300/311713265626%7%68-0.2
✕Blake Hunt
2022 · AA 		23 35 43→50 48→40 39 178/241/285 107272 114 37% 7% 42 -2.3 203/260/325 122275 134 30% 6% 60 -1.0 207/268/34113426314226%6%65-0.3
✕Alejandro Torres
2012 · A 		23 37 37→40 46→40 35 182/219/253 71267 45 33% 4% 22 -3.7 205/260/281 76311 56 33% 6% 48 -1.9 198/265/228303130034%8%37-0.5
✕Shane Zeile
2016 · A 		23 39 38→50 48→40 40 191/244/271 79266 54 29% 6% 38 -2.6 209/257/321 112282 96 28% 5% 57 -1.2 201/247/35014925812327%4%59-0.4
✕Nick Quintana
2021 · A 		23 39 40→45 50→45 37 189/243/279 90293 79 36% 6% 40 -2.4 181/265/289 108254 115 31% 9% 54 -1.4 161/255/26310122311331%10%40-1.3
✕Carson Blair
2013 · A 		23 34 42→50 43→30 38 172/234/280 108274 106 39% 7% 37 -2.6 197/267/331 134321 134 39% 8% 65 -0.7 191/266/33614531415141%9%63-0.4
✕Arturo De Freitas
2023 · A 		22 35 39→45 45→40 34 173/222/254 81276 74 39% 5% 24 -3.5 183/241/264 81308 85 40% 6% 36 -2.7 115/169/126122240046%5%-33-1.4
✕Juan Uriarte
2021 · A 		23 38 41→45 48→30 31 189/228/283 93291 96 37% 4% 34 -2.8 198/249/283 85295 66 33% 4% 43 -2.2 156/203/205492410033%2%1-1.2
✕Ben Gobbel
2023 · A 		23 41→40 36→50 47→50 41 197/258/265 68279 47 29% 6% 43 -2.2 211/270/330 119289 1313 30% 6% 66 -0.6 213/262/352139271171228%4%64-0.4
✕Matt Winn
2016 · A 		23 40→34 40→50 50→30 37 196/246/288 92293 77 34% 6% 43 -2.2 190/247/324 134306 162 41% 7% 54 -1.4 173/233/30913629016044%7%41-1.5
✕Tyler Grimes
2013 · A 		23 38 41→40 46→40 41 184/265/285 101288 88 36% 8% 53 -1.5 205/278/297 92316 75 34% 7% 60 -1.0 204/278/288843185234%7%56-0.7
✕Chris Hess
2018 · A 		23 39→34 37→45 49→30 38 187/245/270 83282 35 33% 6% 39 -2.5 194/251/308 114284 114 34% 4% 52 -1.6 181/239/30912825714134%4%46-1.6
✕Tate Blackman
2018 · A 		23 40→34 42→45 49→40 44 198/269/304 106269 104 29% 7% 59 -1.1 175/249/267 92300 104 41% 8% 41 -2.3 154/232/2378427110344%8%25-2.5
✕Michael Pérez
2016 · A 		23 34 41→50 42→40 41 176/240/273 97255 94 33% 7% 38 -2.6 207/260/304 97277 83 27% 6% 53 -1.5 221/281/34011928413026%7%70-0.2
✕Claudio Finol
2023 · AA 		23 38 37→40 50→45 40 187/240/263 77259 48 29% 5% 35 -2.8 204/263/296 92292 810 31% 7% 53 -1.5 181/246/2587726091232%7%35-0.7
✕Willie MacIver
2021 · A 		24 35→33 41→45 49→55 36 182/228/277 95252 99 31% 4% 33 -2.9 190/258/311 121280 1415 35% 7% 56 -1.3 225/305/348123321111831%8%83+0.3
✕Joseph Odom
2015 · A 		23 38 40→45 40→30 44 189/261/275 87276 85 33% 8% 48 -1.9 206/252/313 107279 103 29% 5% 53 -1.5 199/254/31811933012241%6%52-0.6
✕Andy Paz
2016 · A 		23 38 37→40 48→45 42 185/247/254 69274 56 33% 8% 36 -2.7 220/269/285 65296 47 25% 6% 52 -1.6 226/270/274482963723%6%46-0.7
✕Jason Lopez
2021 · A 		23 40 44→55 46→45 37 202/247/323 121282 127 32% 5% 53 -1.5 194/256/297 103298 1010 36% 7% 50 -1.7 163/228/25491247101036%8%25-0.9