Alex Carrillo

P Sacramento River Cats

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2019	22	ROKAZL Rangers	3	4	0.00	1.72	35.3%	11.8%	—	K 35.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 1.61
2025	28	MIX3 levels	38	46	5.05	3.94	34.2%	14.1%	0.3	K 30.2% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.30
2026	29	AAASF	36	36	6.50	4.35	28.0%	19.8%	—	K 24.1% · BB 17.8% · FIP 4.32
2027PROJ	30	MLBSF	21	22	4.81	4.81	24.3%	15.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBSF	8	8	4.89	4.97	23.8%	15.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%24.3%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%8.8%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

SL-0.6 (32%)

FB-4.7 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	3	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.4	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.61	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	3	0	4	17	6	2	0	0%	1.4	35.3%	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.72	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.1%	16.1%	1.8%	5.05	3.30	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	30.2%	14.1%	16.1%	1.8%	5.05	3.30	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	46	199	68	28	7	0%	1.2	34.2%	14.1%	20.1%	3.5%	5.05	3.94	+0.3
2026	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	36	0	36	182	51	36	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	17.8%	6.3%	1.8%	6.50	4.32	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	36	0	36	182	51	36	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	17.8%	6.3%	1.8%	6.50	4.32	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Sacramento River Cats	36	0	36	182	51	36	3	0%	1.0	28.0%	19.8%	8.2%	1.6%	6.50	4.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	5	22	4	2	4	0%	1.6	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	18.2%	13.50	13.81	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SF	21	0	22	93	23	14	2	0%	1.0	24.3%	15.5%	8.8%	2.6%	4.81	4.81	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SF	19	0	20	86	21	13	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	15.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.97	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SF	8	0	8	34	8	5	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	15.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	12	54	12	7	5	0%	1.2	21.5%	12.7%	8.8%	9.1%	8.19	7.91	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	0	200	882	197	115	82	0%	1.2	21.5%	12.7%	8.8%	9.1%	8.19	7.91	-7.8
Career	—	MLE		77	0	87	398	110	63	7	0%	1.1	27.7%	15.7%	11.9%	1.7%	5.40	3.69	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	0	200	918	254	144	16	0%	1.1	27.7%	15.7%	11.9%	1.7%	5.40	3.69	-4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Carrillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	24.3%	15.5%	2.6%	—	4.97	23.8%	8.6%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	73
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	73
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	72
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	72
Cody Hall R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	30	SU	3.92	25.9%	17.5%	1.5%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	134	71
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.94	409	71
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	69
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	66
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	66
R.J. Alvarez R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	30	SU	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.2%	.304	4.06	19.2%	5.7%	46	+0.38	3.01	302	66
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	66
Dalier Hinojosa R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	18.7%	12.6%	2.2%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	104	66
Dan Winkler R 2020 · 5.18 FIP	30	SU	5.18	23.7%	14.5%	4.1%	.182	4.28	22.9%	8.3%	86	-0.90	2.40	231	65
Taylor Williams R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	30	SU	5.96	19.9%	14.1%	5.0%	.261	3.79	18.8%	9.0%	101	-2.17	2.51	309	65
Dennis Sarfate R 2009 · 4.81 FIP	28	SU	4.81	19.8%	13.9%	3.0%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	65
Jordan Jankowski R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	21.8%	16.9%	2.5%	.396	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	196	65
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	64
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	64
Edwar Ramirez R 2010 · 4.76 FIP	29	SU	4.76	18.5%	16.7%	2.0%	.235	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	109	64